Alnylam (NASDAQ:ALNY) has corrected by roughly 13% over the past couple of weeks. To understand why this pullback is unfolding now, it is important to examine the stock's structure through the lens of the Adhishthana principles and assess where it stands within its broader cycle.Alnylam's Weekly StructureOn the weekly charts, Alnylam is currently in Phase 11 of its 18-phase Adhishthana cycle. Back in July, when the stock was still in Phase 10, we published a cautious commentary titled "Alnylam Pharma Stock ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the small nucleic acid sector, anticipating significant catalysts by 2026 [5]. Core Views - The report emphasizes three main investment themes for 2026: innovation, international expansion, and turnaround opportunities. It suggests focusing on innovative drugs, biotech companies that have gone global, and supply chain strategies [2][21]. - The small nucleic acid therapy market is expected to experience substantial growth, with FDA-approved drugs like Inclisiran and Vutrisiran projected to reach sales of $754 million and $971 million respectively by 2024 [3][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Small Nucleic Acid Market Outlook - The report highlights the commercial growth potential of small nucleic acid therapies, with significant sales forecasts for drugs like Inclisiran and Vutrisiran, and a projected market size of $30 billion for Novartis's xRNA therapies [3][16]. - The business development (BD) trend for siRNA therapies is improving, with notable deals such as a $4.165 billion agreement with Novartis [3][20]. - Clinical catalysts are expected, with Arrowhead's ARO-DIMER-PA set to announce trial results in H2 2026 [4][20]. - Increased capital recognition is noted, with companies like Rebio Biotech preparing for IPOs, indicating a positive market sentiment [4][20]. 2. Market Review and Trends - The report reviews the recent performance of the pharmaceutical sector, noting a 1.04% decline in the A-share pharmaceutical index, underperforming compared to the ChiNext and CSI 300 indices [24][28]. - The overall trading volume in the pharmaceutical sector was 423.35 billion yuan, accounting for 4.38% of the total market, below the historical average of 7.13% [43][24]. - The report identifies the best-performing sub-sector as medical services II, while the worst was pharmaceutical commerce II [35][38]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality siRNA companies in China, such as Frontier Biotech, Yuyuan Pharmaceutical, and others, as they are positioned for rapid development in the small nucleic acid space [7][21]. - It suggests monitoring the clinical progress of various siRNA drugs in development, particularly those targeting metabolic diseases [22][21].

Core Insights - The small nucleic acid drug market is entering a high-growth phase, driven by advancements in delivery technologies like GalNAc, which have enabled commercialization of liver-targeted drugs and expansion into common disease areas such as cardiovascular and central nervous system disorders [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Small nucleic acid drugs represent the third major class of drugs, including ASO and siRNA, with strong targeting capabilities and long-lasting effects, providing breakthroughs for traditionally non-druggable targets [1]. - The global small nucleic acid drug market is projected to grow from approximately $6.2 billion in 2024 to $46.7 billion by 2033, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% [2]. - The industry is characterized by a "one strong, many strong" structure, with leading companies like Alnylam, Ionis, and Arrowhead at the forefront of technology and pipeline development [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - Alnylam has established itself as the global leader in the siRNA field, leveraging its pioneering GalNAc liver-targeting delivery technology, which has set industry benchmarks [3]. - Since entering the commercialization phase in 2018, Alnylam has seen significant revenue growth, with total revenue reaching $2.617 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a 58% year-on-year increase, and product net revenue of $1.992 billion, up 67% [3]. - The company continues to enhance its platform technology and expand its pipeline, with multiple cardiovascular, CNS, and rare disease drugs in clinical stages, which are expected to broaden its therapeutic indications [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Companies with leading advantages in small nucleic acid drug platform technologies and differentiated competitive positioning in target layouts are recommended for investment consideration, including Yuyuan Pharmaceutical, Fuyuan Pharmaceutical, Frontier Biotech, Shiyao Group, and Hengrui Medicine [4].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment opportunity in the small nucleic acid drug industry, highlighting its unique advantages and potential for growth [2]. Core Insights - Small nucleic acid drugs possess unique advantages such as broad target accessibility, strong specificity, high development efficiency, and prolonged dosing intervals, which significantly enhance patient compliance and open up potential clinical demand [2]. - Recent technological breakthroughs in small nucleic acid drug design have addressed challenges such as vascular degradation, immune activation, and delivery difficulties, leading to successful market approvals and showcasing excellent efficacy and safety [2]. - The global market for RNAi therapies is projected to grow from $12 million in 2018 to $25 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 449.2%, indicating a rapid expansion phase for small nucleic acid drugs [2]. - Major multinational corporations (MNCs) are increasingly investing in the small nucleic acid field, with significant collaborations and development projects emerging, particularly in China [2]. - The report emphasizes the limited number of approved small nucleic acid products, suggesting that Chinese companies have the potential to capture a significant share of the global market [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction and Core Technology of Small Nucleic Acid Drugs - Small nucleic acid drugs are defined as short-chain nucleic acids composed of dozens of nucleotides, targeting RNA to regulate protein expression [10]. - The report outlines the unique characteristics of small nucleic acid drugs, including their ability to target a wide range of disease-related genes and their potential to become a third major class of therapeutics after small molecules and antibody drugs [19]. 2. Market Overview of Small Nucleic Acid Drugs - The small nucleic acid drug market is experiencing rapid growth, with the global market size expected to reach $52.47 billion in 2024, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase [50]. - The report forecasts that the RNAi therapy market in China will grow from approximately $4 million in 2022 to over $300 million by 2025, with a CAGR exceeding 300% [50]. 3. Disease Areas for Small Nucleic Acid Drugs - The report identifies genetic rare diseases as the most common indication for approved small nucleic acid drugs, with 16 out of 22 approved products targeting this area [51][52]. 4. Leading Overseas Companies in Small Nucleic Acid - The report highlights several leading companies in the small nucleic acid space, including Alnylam, Ionis, and Arrowhead, which are at the forefront of innovation and development [2]. 5. Recommended Companies to Watch - The report suggests monitoring companies with proprietary technology platforms and innovative pipeline layouts, such as Yuyuan Pharmaceutical, Rejuve Biotech, and others, as potential investment opportunities [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry in China [6]. Core Insights - Small nucleic acid drugs are expected to become the third major class of drugs after small molecules and antibodies, with unique advantages such as broad targets, strong specificity, high development efficiency, and long dosing intervals [9][38]. - The commercialization of rare diseases is maturing, and the long-term advantages for chronic diseases are becoming evident, with significant sales growth for products like Spinraza and Leqivo [9][60]. - There is a notable increase in business development (BD) activities, highlighting the potential of early-stage chronic disease pipelines [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Small Nucleic Acids: Potential as a New Drug Class - Small nucleic acid drugs, including ASO, siRNA, and Aptamer, interact with mRNA to regulate gene expression, offering a new technological pathway for drug development [13]. - The global market for small nucleic acid drugs has grown from $1.04 billion in 2017 to $5.09 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 25.5% [60]. 2. Milestones in Overseas and Domestic Markets - In the overseas market, significant developments are expected in the TTR field and cardiovascular diseases, with drugs like Vutrisiran and Pelacarsen showing promise [9]. - In China, new therapies for chronic hepatitis B and competitive advancements in cardiovascular drugs are emerging, with several companies making progress in their pipelines [9][60]. 3. Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on high-quality domestic companies involved in the development of small nucleic acid drugs targeting chronic hepatitis B and cardiovascular diseases, such as HengRui Medicine, China National Pharmaceutical Group, and others [9].

Core Insights - Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) is currently in Phase 10 of its 18-phase Adhishthana Cycle, with expectations for a peak formation in Phase 11, scheduled to end in September 2025 [1][5][6] Phase Analysis - The stock experienced a significant gap-up of over 30% on June 24 after positive results from its drug Vutrisiran for treating transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy, aligning with the principles of the Adhishthana framework [4][5] - Phase 9 was characterized by powerful structural shifts, leading to the current bullish stance in Phase 10, which is still building without signs of a peak [5][6] - Peak formation in Phase 10 typically occurs between the 18th and 23rd bars, but ALNY has not yet shown signs of this peak [6] Monthly Chart Insights - On the monthly chart, ALNY is in Phase 6, associated with the creation of a Nirvana level, projected to emerge around $240 by September 30, 2025 [9][10] - The stock has been forming its monthly Adhishthana Cakra since Phase 4 and is currently near the upper arc of this structure, indicating potential exhaustion as Phase 10 matures [10] Investor Outlook - Existing investors are advised to hold while monitoring for signs of structural breakdown, which would indicate a descent phase, referred to as the "Wrath of Ganga" [11] - New entrants are cautioned against entering during Phase 10 due to poor risk-reward dynamics, as the stock is trading near the higher arc of the monthly Adhishthana Cakra [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive," indicating an expected overall return exceeding 5% above the CSI 300 index in the next six months [13]. Core Views - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a decline of 0.84% on March 24, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.35 percentage points, ranking 21st among 31 sub-industries [5]. - Notable performances within sub-industries include vaccines (+0.17%) and medical research outsourcing (-0.16%), while hospitals (-2.17%) and medical devices (-1.35%) lagged [5]. - Alnylam's RNAi therapy Vutrisiran has received FDA approval for treating wild-type or hereditary ATTR-CM in adults, aimed at reducing cardiovascular mortality and hospitalizations [6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - On March 24, 2025, the pharmaceutical sector's performance was -0.84%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.35% [5]. - The top three gainers were Tianyu Co. (+9.95%), Zhongyuan Qihe (+8.82%), and Shanwaishan (+6.60%), while the largest decliners were Aipeng Medical (-10.22%), Innovation Medical (-9.97%), and Sanbo Brain Science (-8.99%) [5]. Industry News - Alnylam announced FDA approval for Vutrisiran, a subcutaneous RNAi therapy targeting specific mRNA to block the production of transthyretin protein, enhancing efficacy and metabolic stability [6]. - Garden Biologics reported a 13.58% year-on-year increase in revenue to 1.243 billion yuan for 2024, with a net profit growth of 60.76% to 309 million yuan [7]. - Shouxiangu reported a 10.87% decline in revenue to 699 million yuan for 2024, with a net profit decrease of 27.87% to 184 million yuan [7].