新药管线密集+BD交易活跃，小核酸药物市场加速扩容 全球小核酸药物市场增长势头强劲，2024年市场规模约62亿美元，预计2033年将达到 467亿美元，期间 复合年增长率达25%。行业格局呈一超多强特征，Alnylam、Ionis、Arrowhead等头部企业技术与管线布 局领先。目前，全球在售小核酸药物共18款，Inclisiran、Vutrisiran等重磅单品商业化放量显著;进入临 床阶段的小核酸药物超300个，涵盖心血管代谢、肿瘤和罕见病等多个领域，其中多款药物进入临床 II/III期，行业将进入新药上市及关键临床数据读出的窗口期。同时，小核酸赛道景气度高、BD 交易活 跃，2018年至2025年11月14日，siRNA领域累计交易额超450亿美元，全球MNC药企持续加码布局，行 业长期成长可期。 Alnylam凭借领先的技术平台与强劲的商业化放量，稳居siRNA领域全球龙头地位 公司于2002年成立，2004年在纳斯达克上市，核心竞争力来自技术壁垒构建，凭借率先在临床上验证 GalNAc肝靶向递送技术的可行性，奠定行业标杆地位。2018年以来，公司正式进入商业化兑现期，多 款siRNA药物相继获批上 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment opportunity in the small nucleic acid drug industry, highlighting its unique advantages and potential for growth [2]. Core Insights - Small nucleic acid drugs possess unique advantages such as broad target accessibility, strong specificity, high development efficiency, and prolonged dosing intervals, which significantly enhance patient compliance and open up potential clinical demand [2]. - Recent technological breakthroughs in small nucleic acid drug design have addressed challenges such as vascular degradation, immune activation, and delivery difficulties, leading to successful market approvals and showcasing excellent efficacy and safety [2]. - The global market for RNAi therapies is projected to grow from $12 million in 2018 to $25 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 449.2%, indicating a rapid expansion phase for small nucleic acid drugs [2]. - Major multinational corporations (MNCs) are increasingly investing in the small nucleic acid field, with significant collaborations and development projects emerging, particularly in China [2]. - The report emphasizes the limited number of approved small nucleic acid products, suggesting that Chinese companies have the potential to capture a significant share of the global market [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction and Core Technology of Small Nucleic Acid Drugs - Small nucleic acid drugs are defined as short-chain nucleic acids composed of dozens of nucleotides, targeting RNA to regulate protein expression [10]. - The report outlines the unique characteristics of small nucleic acid drugs, including their ability to target a wide range of disease-related genes and their potential to become a third major class of therapeutics after small molecules and antibody drugs [19]. 2. Market Overview of Small Nucleic Acid Drugs - The small nucleic acid drug market is experiencing rapid growth, with the global market size expected to reach $52.47 billion in 2024, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase [50]. - The report forecasts that the RNAi therapy market in China will grow from approximately $4 million in 2022 to over $300 million by 2025, with a CAGR exceeding 300% [50]. 3. Disease Areas for Small Nucleic Acid Drugs - The report identifies genetic rare diseases as the most common indication for approved small nucleic acid drugs, with 16 out of 22 approved products targeting this area [51][52]. 4. Leading Overseas Companies in Small Nucleic Acid - The report highlights several leading companies in the small nucleic acid space, including Alnylam, Ionis, and Arrowhead, which are at the forefront of innovation and development [2]. 5. Recommended Companies to Watch - The report suggests monitoring companies with proprietary technology platforms and innovative pipeline layouts, such as Yuyuan Pharmaceutical, Rejuve Biotech, and others, as potential investment opportunities [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry in China [6]. Core Insights - Small nucleic acid drugs are expected to become the third major class of drugs after small molecules and antibodies, with unique advantages such as broad targets, strong specificity, high development efficiency, and long dosing intervals [9][38]. - The commercialization of rare diseases is maturing, and the long-term advantages for chronic diseases are becoming evident, with significant sales growth for products like Spinraza and Leqivo [9][60]. - There is a notable increase in business development (BD) activities, highlighting the potential of early-stage chronic disease pipelines [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Small Nucleic Acids: Potential as a New Drug Class - Small nucleic acid drugs, including ASO, siRNA, and Aptamer, interact with mRNA to regulate gene expression, offering a new technological pathway for drug development [13]. - The global market for small nucleic acid drugs has grown from $1.04 billion in 2017 to $5.09 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 25.5% [60]. 2. Milestones in Overseas and Domestic Markets - In the overseas market, significant developments are expected in the TTR field and cardiovascular diseases, with drugs like Vutrisiran and Pelacarsen showing promise [9]. - In China, new therapies for chronic hepatitis B and competitive advancements in cardiovascular drugs are emerging, with several companies making progress in their pipelines [9][60]. 3. Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on high-quality domestic companies involved in the development of small nucleic acid drugs targeting chronic hepatitis B and cardiovascular diseases, such as HengRui Medicine, China National Pharmaceutical Group, and others [9].

Core Insights - Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) is currently in Phase 10 of its 18-phase Adhishthana Cycle, with expectations for a peak formation in Phase 11, scheduled to end in September 2025 [1][5][6] Phase Analysis - The stock experienced a significant gap-up of over 30% on June 24 after positive results from its drug Vutrisiran for treating transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy, aligning with the principles of the Adhishthana framework [4][5] - Phase 9 was characterized by powerful structural shifts, leading to the current bullish stance in Phase 10, which is still building without signs of a peak [5][6] - Peak formation in Phase 10 typically occurs between the 18th and 23rd bars, but ALNY has not yet shown signs of this peak [6] Monthly Chart Insights - On the monthly chart, ALNY is in Phase 6, associated with the creation of a Nirvana level, projected to emerge around $240 by September 30, 2025 [9][10] - The stock has been forming its monthly Adhishthana Cakra since Phase 4 and is currently near the upper arc of this structure, indicating potential exhaustion as Phase 10 matures [10] Investor Outlook - Existing investors are advised to hold while monitoring for signs of structural breakdown, which would indicate a descent phase, referred to as the "Wrath of Ganga" [11] - New entrants are cautioned against entering during Phase 10 due to poor risk-reward dynamics, as the stock is trading near the higher arc of the monthly Adhishthana Cakra [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive," indicating an expected overall return exceeding 5% above the CSI 300 index in the next six months [13]. Core Views - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a decline of 0.84% on March 24, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.35 percentage points, ranking 21st among 31 sub-industries [5]. - Notable performances within sub-industries include vaccines (+0.17%) and medical research outsourcing (-0.16%), while hospitals (-2.17%) and medical devices (-1.35%) lagged [5]. - Alnylam's RNAi therapy Vutrisiran has received FDA approval for treating wild-type or hereditary ATTR-CM in adults, aimed at reducing cardiovascular mortality and hospitalizations [6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - On March 24, 2025, the pharmaceutical sector's performance was -0.84%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.35% [5]. - The top three gainers were Tianyu Co. (+9.95%), Zhongyuan Qihe (+8.82%), and Shanwaishan (+6.60%), while the largest decliners were Aipeng Medical (-10.22%), Innovation Medical (-9.97%), and Sanbo Brain Science (-8.99%) [5]. Industry News - Alnylam announced FDA approval for Vutrisiran, a subcutaneous RNAi therapy targeting specific mRNA to block the production of transthyretin protein, enhancing efficacy and metabolic stability [6]. - Garden Biologics reported a 13.58% year-on-year increase in revenue to 1.243 billion yuan for 2024, with a net profit growth of 60.76% to 309 million yuan [7]. - Shouxiangu reported a 10.87% decline in revenue to 699 million yuan for 2024, with a net profit decrease of 27.87% to 184 million yuan [7].