Flash | 16 Nov 2025 18:23:15 ET │ 11 pages Beijing Roborock (688169.SS) What's New from 2025 Citi China Conference: Turnaround Pressure in China Persists CITI'S TAKE Operating color from other biz — Wet-and-dry vacuum: Per mgt, the market share of its wet-dry vacuum ranked no. 2 in China. Considering its ongoing subsidies to Buy | Price (14 Nov 25 15:00) | Rmb163.420 | | --- | --- | | Target price | Rmb241.500 | | Expected share price return | 47.8% | | Expected dividend yield | 0.5% | | Expected total retu ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Consumer Durables, specifically the white goods sector - **Key Players**: Midea, Haier, Gree, Hisense Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Divergent Performance in 3Q25**: - Midea and Haier reported approximately 10% revenue and profit growth, exceeding expectations - Gree and Hisense experienced significant declines in profits, with Gree reporting a year-over-year profit decline of SD% [1][10] 2. **Domestic Market Dynamics**: - Split AC growth showed notable divergence, with Gree facing a sequential revenue decline while Midea, Haier, and Hisense reported revenue growth [1] - The market anticipates a deceleration in domestic growth into 4Q25 and 2026 due to a higher base, with expected shipment declines of 10% and 5% for major white goods [2][16] 3. **Pricing and Margins**: - Competition remains a key focus, particularly in the AC industry, with less competitive pricing observed compared to previous periods - Despite demand pressures, significant price cuts are not expected due to leading players' focus on profitability and lean inventory [3] 4. **Overseas Growth as a Key Driver**: - Overseas markets, particularly APAC and Europe, are expected to drive growth for Chinese white goods companies, supported by past investments in manufacturing and branding [4][6] 5. **Shareholder Returns**: - Current share prices imply an average dividend yield of 5% to 6% for covered white goods stocks, providing downside protection amid growth concerns [7] 6. **Future Outlook for Key Players**: - Midea and Haier are expected to continue leading the sector with positive growth, while Gree faces persistent pressure due to high domestic market exposure [8] Additional Important Insights 1. **Earnings Revisions**: - Earnings forecasts for Midea and Haier have been raised, while estimates for Gree and Hisense have been lowered to reflect recent performance [14] 2. **Management's Strategic Focus**: - Midea's management aims for revenue growth of MSD-HSD% CAGR from 2026 to 2028, with a focus on market share gains in refrigerators and washing machines, and margin improvements in AC [33][34] 3. **Investment in Technology**: - Midea plans to invest in AI and robotics, focusing on robotic home appliances and humanoid robots, indicating a strategic shift towards automation and advanced technology [34] 4. **Valuation Adjustments**: - Target prices for Midea and Haier have been adjusted based on updated earnings forecasts, reflecting a positive outlook for these companies [35] 5. **Market Sentiment**: - Consumer sentiment has pulled back, but property indicators in the US have shown improvement, suggesting a mixed outlook for consumer durables [31] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the performance of major players in the white goods sector, market dynamics, and future growth strategies.

Summary of Hisense Home Appliances Group (000921.SZ) 3Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hisense Home Appliances Group - **Ticker**: 000921.SZ - **Reporting Period**: 3Q25 Key Financial Results - **Total Revenue**: Rmb 22,192 million, up by +1% year-over-year (yoy) - **Net Profit**: Rmb 735 million, down by -5% yoy - **Comparison to Estimates**: Revenue and net profit were -4% and -16% below Goldman Sachs estimates respectively [1][4][5] Core Insights and Arguments - **Central AC and Exports**: The central air conditioning (AC) business continues to face pressure, contributing to lower revenue growth. Exports of AC units have also moderated, impacting overall performance [4][6] - **Domestic Market Performance**: Despite challenges in the central AC segment, domestic white goods showed healthy growth, particularly in washing machines and refrigerators, which demonstrated resilience in both domestic and overseas markets [4][6] - **Margin Decline**: Gross Profit Margin (GPM) and Operating Profit Margin (OPM) declined by 0.6 percentage points and 0.1 percentage points yoy to 20.2% and 3.9% respectively. This decline is attributed to lower contributions from the higher-margin central AC segment and increased domestic competition [4][5] Management Focus Areas for Future - **Earnings Call Topics**: Management will address several key areas during the earnings call, including: 1. Breakdown of sales channels in 3Q25 and outlook for the central AC business 2. Impact of trade-in stimulus on the legacy white goods business 3. Changes in competitive intensity, particularly in split ACs 4. Updates on export orders and tariff impacts 5. Measures to enhance operating efficiency and margins [2][4] Investment Thesis - **Buy Rating Justification**: The investment thesis supports a Buy rating based on: 1. High earnings growth visibility, particularly with the 2024 Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP) target 2. Attractive dividend yield 3. Valuation metrics indicating the stock is trading at an undemanding forward Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio against high single-digit profit growth expectations [6][7] Risks to Consider - **Key Risks**: 1. Potential disruption in white goods demand due to weaker global macroeconomic conditions 2. Further slowdown in the property market affecting demand for Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) systems 3. Increased competition from domestic players threatening the Hisense-Hitachi joint venture's leading position 4. Margin dilution from greater penetration in the developer channel 5. Below-expected integration performance of the Hisense-Hitachi joint venture 6. Underperformance of the legacy white goods business [8][6] Conclusion Hisense Home Appliances Group's 3Q25 results reflect a mixed performance with challenges in the central AC segment and exports, while domestic white goods show resilience. The company is focusing on improving margins and operational efficiency, with a positive long-term outlook supported by strategic initiatives and a favorable investment thesis. However, several risks could impact future performance.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **China Consumer Appliances** industry, focusing on **home appliances** and **small kitchen appliances** sales trends for April 2025 and the first four months of 2025 (4M25) [2][3][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Sales Recovery**: Home appliance sales showed a steady recovery in April 2025, with major categories experiencing year-over-year (YoY) growth due to trade-in subsidies and a low base effect. The upcoming air conditioning (AC) peak season is expected to further boost sales [2][3]. - **Robotic Vacuum Cleaners (RVC)**: RVCs maintained strong sales momentum, with online retail sales growing by **67% YoY** in 4M25, driven by new product launches and trade-in subsidies [2][4]. - **Impact of US Tariffs**: The reduction of US tariffs on home appliances from **145% to 30%** is anticipated to improve market sentiment and earnings for home appliance companies in 2025 [2]. - **Pricing Pressure**: Despite the sales recovery, there is ongoing pricing pressure, particularly for ACs and refrigerators, with online average selling prices (ASPs) dropping by **3% and 4% YoY**, respectively [3][4]. Sales Performance by Category - **Major Appliances**: - Offline sales for ACs, washing machines (WMs), refrigerators, and range hoods rose **12%**, **17%**, **17%**, and **44% YoY**, respectively. Online sales showed a mixed performance with ACs up **35%** but WMs only **11%** [3][9]. - Haier gained market share in WMs, with online and offline value shares increasing to **37.2%** and **40.1%**, respectively, attributed to the successful launch of new products [3]. - **RVC Sales**: - RVC online sales grew **81% YoY** in April, with brands like Dreame and Narwal leading the market with **102%** and **101%** growth, respectively [4]. - **Small Kitchen Appliances**: - Online sales for small kitchen appliances rebounded, with growth rates between **3% and 11% YoY**, and ASPs increased by **1% to 15% YoY**. However, price pressures are expected to persist [5]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment is expected to improve as the industry enters the AC peak season, benefiting from a lower sales base from the previous year [2]. - **Competitive Landscape**: Xiaomi continues to gain share in ACs but has plateaued in WMs and refrigerators, while Haier's innovative products have helped increase ASPs in the WM segment by **12% YoY** [3][4]. - **ASP Trends**: The ASPs for various appliance categories are under scrutiny, with some categories experiencing declines, indicating potential challenges ahead for manufacturers [3][5]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the recovery trends, competitive dynamics, and pricing pressures within the China Consumer Appliances industry.

Construction Industry - In January-February, key indicators of the real estate market continued to decline year-on-year, with real estate development investment down by 9.8%, new construction area down by 29.6%, construction area down by 9.1%, sales area of commercial housing down by 5.1%, and completed housing area down by 15.6%, although the decline was narrower compared to the same period last year [2] - Infrastructure investment grew by 5.6% year-on-year, with water management investment up by 39.1%, air transport investment up by 13.4%, public facility management investment up by 2.6%, road transport investment down by 3.2%, and railway transport investment up by 0.2% [2] - National major power generation enterprises completed an investment of 75.3 billion yuan in power source projects, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, while grid projects saw an investment of 43.6 billion yuan, up by 33.5% [2] Machinery Industry - In January-February, the machinery industry maintained growth, with most product outputs increasing year-on-year. The export value of electromechanical products totaled 2.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, accounting for 60.0% of total exports [3] Automotive Industry - In January-February, 4.553 million vehicles were produced, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, with passenger car production at 3.936 million (up 17.2%) and commercial vehicle production at 617,000 (up 10.2%) [4] - New energy vehicle production continued to grow rapidly, increasing by 52.0%, with sales accounting for 40.3% of total vehicle sales. Vehicle exports reached 910,000, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, although the growth rate slowed [4] - In February, vehicle production was 2.1 million, a year-on-year increase of 39.6%, but a month-on-month decrease of 14.1% [5] Home Appliance Industry - In January-February, the production of the three major white goods (washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators) increased year-on-year, with washing machine production at 18.52 million units (up 12.7%), air conditioner production at 41.28 million units (up 9.0%), and refrigerator production at 15.12 million units (up 11.7%) [6] - Home appliance exports increased by 9.4% year-on-year, although the growth rate was narrower compared to the same period last year [6] Container Industry - In January-February, container production reached 3.519 million cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 51.3%, although the growth rate was significantly narrower compared to the same period last year, with export volume increasing by 21.2% [7]