2026 年六大已披露 "惊喜"：科技、政策、资本领域成焦点 目前发布的预测共披露 6 项核心内容，覆盖自动驾驶、房地产、科技资本、货币政策、贸易政策及加密资产领域，每一项均突破市 场普遍预期： 1.Waymo 无人出租车加速普及，引发 "禁驾" 讨论 正值年末年始节点，为延续华尔街已故传奇策略师拜伦・韦恩（Byron Wien）的年度预测传统，TBS 电视台与彭博媒体联合打造的 商业金融新闻平台 "TBS CROSS DIG with Bloomberg"，于 1 月 9 日发布《2026 年可能发生的 10 个惊喜》。据悉，此次预测是对韦 恩的 "微小致敬"—— 这位曾连续 38 年发布 "十大惊喜"、以反向视角洞察市场的策略师，在 2023 年 1 月推出第 38 次预测后仅 10 个 月便离世，而其 "聚焦普通投资者认为'不可能'、但发生概率更高事件" 的预判风格，成为此次预测的核心思路。 预测背景：延续 "反向洞察" 传统 依托专业媒体平台输出 拜伦・韦恩被誉为华尔街 "惊喜预测" 的开创者，生前长期任职于黑石集团，直至 90 岁高龄仍坚持工作，其年度 "十大惊喜" 覆盖经 济、政策、市场等领域，多 ...

Group 1 - Tesla's stock surged over 10% following the launch of its Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, resulting in a market value increase of $100 billion [1][4] - The initial feedback from users highlighted the smooth and comfortable driving experience of Robotaxi, with many comparing it to an experienced human driver [3][6] - Wall Street analysts have raised their price target for Tesla shares to $500, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future following the launch [4] Group 2 - Robotaxi demonstrated impressive capabilities in various driving conditions, including night-time visibility and obstacle recognition, showcasing its advanced technology [6][10] - The latest version of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, V13, is considered a benchmark in the industry, with reports suggesting it can operate without human intervention in 97% of driving scenarios [13] - User interactions have been enhanced with a rear screen that allows passengers to control various functions, including navigation and climate settings [15][17] Group 3 - Despite its promising performance, Robotaxi is not without flaws, with reports of unexpected braking and misinterpretation of roadside situations [18][20][24] - The presence of safety drivers in each Robotaxi indicates a level of caution from Tesla, suggesting that the technology is still in a testing phase [25][26] - The limited operational area of Robotaxi in Austin raises questions about its scalability and reliability in diverse environments [23][24] Group 4 - Tesla's approach to Robotaxi differs from competitors like Waymo, focusing on a lower-cost model that utilizes existing vehicle designs, which could lead to more affordable ride prices [39][45] - The potential for a large-scale Robotaxi network, with estimates suggesting up to 2.3 million vehicles in the U.S. by 2040, indicates significant revenue opportunities for Tesla [56] - Tesla aims to integrate its Robotaxi service with a model that allows vehicle owners to participate in the network, potentially increasing sales and user engagement [49][54]