华泰证券认为，谷歌凭借TPU v7p自研芯片至Gemini模型的全栈AI生态，正强势反击。TPU推动云业务增速达34%，仅次于Azure；Gemini月活达6.5 亿用户，AI Overviews服务超20亿用户。搜索市占率重回90%以上，充沛广告现金流支撑高强度资本开支。 硬科技护城河：TPU v7p对标B300，云业务增速超越AWS 市场长期低估了谷歌的"全栈式"AI反击能力。 近日，华泰证券在最新研报中称，不同于OpenAI严重依赖外部算力（英伟达）和云设施（微软）， 谷歌正在构建从芯片（TPU v7p）到模型（Gemini 3.0）再到应用（搜索+Waymo）的完全自给自足的生态闭环。 看好谷歌 自给自足"全栈式"AI 生态和能力，抢回主导权正当时 。 报告指出，这一闭环正在转化为实打实的财务回报： TPU部署大幅降低推理成本，搜索市场份额企稳回升至90%以上，充沛的广告现金流为高强度的 资本开支（Capex）提供了充足弹药。 华泰证券认为，谷歌的云端大规模自研 TPU 及配套软件生态，带动云业务增速及份额提升；广告业务在 Gemini 赋能下具备变现弹性，充沛现金流反 哺 AI 投入与应用落地。 反 ...

华泰证券认为，与依赖外部算力资源的竞争对手不同，谷歌早在2016年就启动TPU部署，2017年已具备训练和推理能力。目前正推动TPU部署至第三方云服 务商，如Fluidstack，并采用按用量分成模式，有望开辟新的增长空间。 市场长期低估了谷歌的"全栈式"AI反击能力。 近日，华泰证券在最新研报中称，不同于OpenAI严重依赖外部算力（英伟达）和云设施（微软），谷歌正在构建从芯片（TPU v7p）到模型（Gemini 3.0） 再到应用（搜索+Waymo）的完全自给自足的生态闭环。看好谷歌自给自足"全栈式"AI 生态和能力，抢回主导权正当时。 报告指出，这一闭环正在转化为实打实的财务回报：TPU部署大幅降低推理成本，搜索市场份额企稳回升至90%以上，充沛的广告现金流为高强度的资本开 支（Capex）提供了充足弹药。 华泰证券认为，谷歌的云端大规模自研 TPU 及配套软件生态，带动云业务增速及份额提升；广告业务在 Gemini 赋能下具备变现弹性，充沛现金流反哺 AI 投入与应用落地。反观OpenAI仅具备大模型研发能力。当前用户规模虽多，但C端付费意愿较低，而B端商业化路径也尚未跑通，先发优势能否继续仍有待 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market has long underestimated Google's "full-stack" AI capabilities, which are self-sufficient from chip development (TPU v7p) to model creation (Gemini 3.0) and application deployment (Search + Waymo) [1] Group 1: AI Ecosystem and Financial Performance - Google's self-sufficient "full-stack" AI ecosystem is translating into tangible financial returns, with TPU deployment significantly reducing inference costs and stabilizing search market share above 90% [1][6] - The cloud business is experiencing growth, with Q3 cloud revenue reaching $15.2 billion, a 34% year-over-year increase, and market share rising from 18.6% to 19.3% [4] - The advertising business, empowered by Gemini, shows strong monetization elasticity, providing ample cash flow to support ongoing AI investments [7][10] Group 2: Competitive Positioning - The TPU v7p chip, with an FP8 computing power of 4.5 PF, directly competes with Nvidia's B300 chip, showcasing Google's dominance in computing power [3] - Unlike competitors that rely on external computing resources, Google has been deploying TPU since 2016, now expanding to third-party cloud service providers [3] - Google's AI ecosystem, built on TensorFlow and OpenXLA, has the potential to compete with Nvidia's CUDA [3] Group 3: User Engagement and Product Integration - Gemini 3.0 has improved capabilities, with monthly active users reaching 650 million, and is expected to leverage Google's extensive user traffic through deeper integration with search [6] - The Chrome browser is accelerating the integration of Gemini features, enhancing user experience with personalized search results and content generation [6] Group 4: Future Projections - Based on the comprehensive ecosystem development, revenue forecasts for Google have been raised, with expected revenue of $405.17 billion in 2025 and net profit of $131.51 billion [10] - The target price for Google has been adjusted to $380, indicating over an 18% upside potential based on a 30x PE ratio for 2026 [1][10]