Key Takeaways IMO reports Jan. 30 before the open, with a 1.79% Earnings ESP and four straight earnings beats.XOM is expected to post $1.64 EPS on Jan. 30, down 1.8% year over year, yet carries a 2.29% Earnings ESP.PTEN reports Feb. 4 after the close, sporting a 19.15% Earnings ESP despite a mixed recent beat record.The fourth-quarter 2025 earnings season is now underway and investors are closely monitoring the oil and energy sector, which continues to navigate macroeconomic uncertainty and significant vola ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced a decline of 3% following U.S. President Donald Trump's comments that alleviated concerns about an imminent American strike on Iran [1] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil futures fell 3% to $64.47 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude also decreased by 3% to $60.17 per barrel [1] - Oil prices had previously surged on Tuesday after Trump canceled meetings with Iranian officials and indicated support for protesters, leading to heightened concerns about U.S. military intervention [2] Group 2: Political Context - Reports indicate that hundreds of individuals have died due to violent crackdowns by Iranian security forces amid mass unrest [2] - Trump has issued repeated threats of intervention if the Iranian government continues to harm civilians [2] Group 3: Market Reactions - The market reacted positively to Trump's statements on Wednesday, which suggested that violence in Iran had ceased and that there were no plans for further executions [1]

Oil prices flipped dramatically to the downside Wednesday afternoon after President Trump said he had been assured that killings of protesters by the Iranian regime had stopped. "We’ve been told that the killing in Iran is stopping — it’s stopped," Trump said to reporters during a gaggle at the White House, according to Bloomberg. “And there’s no plan for executions or an execution.” Prices on Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, had picked up more than 2% throughout Wednesday's session to tr ...

Market Overview - Wall Street exhibited cautious trading despite a favorable inflation report, with the Consumer Price Index rising 2.7% year over year in December, matching previous readings and economist estimates [1] - The S&P 500 index remained flat at 6,970, close to its record high of 6,986 [2] Major Indices Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.5%, influenced by financial stocks [3] - The Nasdaq 100 saw a slight increase of 0.1%, supported by semiconductor strength [3] - The Russell 2000 gained 0.2%, marking its seventh positive session in the last eight [3] - Key indices performance as of midday: Russell 2000 at 2,639.46 (+0.2%), Nasdaq 100 at 25,821.82 (+0.1%), S&P 500 at 6,976.33 (0.0%), Dow Jones at 49,330.68 (-0.5%) [4] Earnings Reports - JPMorgan Chase & Co. shares fell over 3% despite beating earnings estimates, as investors were concerned about weaker investment-banking fees and cautious loan growth commentary [4] - Delta Air Lines Inc. stock dropped over 4% after issuing soft forward guidance due to cost pressures and normalization in post-pandemic travel demand [5] - Moderna Inc. emerged as the top performer in the S&P 500, rallying 14% after issuing optimistic growth forecasts for its vaccine business [5] Sector Performance - Intel Corp. shares rose 7.7% to $47.50 following an upgrade from KeyBanc, with a price target of $60 [6] - Advanced Micro Devices Inc. increased by 6.5% after a similar upgrade, with a price target of $270 [6] - The energy sector outperformed, with U.S. oil and gas stocks gaining as crude oil rose 2.7% to above $61 a barrel, reaching a three-month high [6] Cryptocurrency Movement - Bitcoin advanced 2.5% to above $93,000, aiming for a third consecutive session of gains [7]

Market Performance - Wall Street started 2026 positively, with large-cap indexes showing gains for three consecutive sessions, particularly the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which rose nearly 1% and reached record highs [1] - Major US indices performed as follows: Nasdaq 100 increased by 0.9%, S&P 500 by 0.6%, Dow Jones by 0.9%, and Russell 2000 by 0.2% [6] Commodity Prices - Gold prices rose for the third session, up 0.9% to $4,490 per ounce, while silver surged over 5% to exceed $80 per ounce due to supply shortages [2][1] - Copper prices increased by 1% to $6.07 per pound, setting new record highs [2] Mining and Memory Chip Stocks - Mining stocks gained alongside rising bullion prices, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF and Global X Silver Miners ETF both up 3.7% [2] - Memory chip stocks saw significant increases: Sandisk Corp. rose by 24.6%, Western Digital Corp. by 15.8%, and Seagate Technology by 12.4%, driven by expectations of rising memory prices amid a global supply crunch [3] Company-Specific Movements - Albemarle Corp. shares increased by 10.7% after Jefferies raised its price target, citing stronger long-term demand related to energy storage and electric vehicles [3] - Tesla Inc. experienced a decline of over 4%, marking its eighth drop in nine sessions due to competitive pressures in the robotaxi market and market share losses in Europe [4] - Energy stocks lagged, with the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund dropping 2.1% and Chevron Corp. falling nearly 4% after a previous rally [5] ETF Performance - The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF rose by 0.5% to $635.34, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF increased by 0.9% to $493.63 [7] - The Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund outperformed, rising by 2.0%, contrasting with the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund, which lagged [7]

Core Insights - Gasoline prices have decreased for six consecutive weeks, reaching their lowest level in nearly five years due to seasonal factors and lower oil prices [1][4] - The national average gasoline price is currently $2.81 per gallon, which is approximately $0.25 lower than the same time last year and the lowest since March 2021 [2] - Only nine states have average prices above $3 per gallon, with California's average at $4.25 per gallon due to taxes and fees [2] Industry Analysis - The decline in gasoline prices is influenced by the recent capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by the US, raising questions about Venezuela's energy reserves [3][6] - Analysts from JPMorgan suggest that while Venezuela's oil production may face temporary disruptions, recovery and increased output could occur in the following months, representing a significant upside risk to global oil supply in 2026-2027 [7] - The combined oil reserves of Venezuela, Guyana, and the US could potentially allow the US to control about 30% of global oil reserves, which may help maintain historically lower oil prices [8] Market Trends - Gas prices are expected to reach their lowest point in the coming weeks before starting a seasonal increase towards March [5] - Despite the potential for increased oil supply from Venezuela, the timeline for significant production increases remains uncertain, with analysts indicating it could take years for supply to impact US gasoline prices meaningfully [6]

Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical uncertainty and the decline of Venezuelan oil exports may lead to a slight increase in oil and gasoline prices, although prices at the pump are expected to remain at their lowest levels since the COVID-19 pandemic [1] Group 1: Oil Price Projections - Andy Lipow projects that oil prices could rise by $3 per barrel, translating to less than 10 cents per gallon for gasoline, while current crude oil prices are significantly lower than a year ago [2] - As of the latest data, Brent crude is priced at $60.75 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $57.79 per barrel, compared to over $70 per barrel a year prior [2] Group 2: Factors Influencing Oil Market - Key factors affecting the oil market include potential supply disruptions from unrest in Iran and possible changes in OPEC+ policies regarding production cuts to meet budgetary needs [3] - The impact of Venezuelan oil output is diminishing, as it now accounts for less than 11% of the global oil supply, with OPEC+ increasing output and global refinery capacity [5] Group 3: Global Supply Concerns - Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil supply passes, pose a significant threat to global oil prices, making the situation in Iran critical to monitor [6] - The U.S. now controls Venezuela's oil reserves, which are the largest in the world, raising concerns about the financial pressure on OPEC+ countries due to prolonged low oil prices [8] Group 4: Future Demand and Production - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that oil demand could continue to grow until 2050, but current oversupply due to restored production cuts in 2025 may lead to lower prices and revenues [10] - With record oil production levels in the U.S., Canada, Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana, OPEC+ may need to implement production cuts to stabilize prices [11]

Geopolitical Impact on Oil Prices - The U.S. has attacked Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro, leading to a decline in oil prices as markets assess the geopolitical implications [1][2] - Brent crude prices fell more than 1% initially but later adjusted to a 0.25% decrease, while West Texas Intermediate crude prices dropped by 0.4% [2] Venezuela's Oil Reserves - Venezuela, a founding member of OPEC, possesses the largest proven crude oil reserves globally, totaling 303 billion barrels, which accounts for approximately 17% of the world's total reserves [3] Market Reactions in Asia-Pacific - Japan's Nikkei 225 index increased by 2.26% in its first trading session of the year, with defense stocks like Kawasaki Heavy Industries and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries rising by 5.7% and 6.4%, respectively [4] - South Korea's Kospi index reached a record high of 4,420.92, climbing 2.19%, while shares of defense giant Hanwha Aerospace rose by 4% [4] - Australia's ASX/S&P 200 index remained flat, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index futures indicated a higher opening [5]

Group 1: Market Reactions - US stocks experienced a rise, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by approximately 1.5% (700 points), the S&P 500 gaining 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite adding 0.9% [1] - The US military action in Venezuela was a focal point for the markets, but strategists downplayed the long-term economic fallout, leading to a positive sentiment in the market [2] - Shares of US oil majors rose due to expectations of benefiting from the rebuilding of Venezuela's energy infrastructure, with Chevron's stock increasing nearly 4% and Halliburton's stock jumping over 7% [3] Group 2: Oil Production and Market Impact - Venezuela's oil production is currently less than 1 million barrels per day, accounting for under 1% of global output, which limits the potential impact on energy markets [4] - Futures for US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude and international benchmark Brent both increased by around 1% [4] Group 3: AI Sector Developments - TSMC shares surged after Goldman Sachs raised its price target for the company, anticipating another year of solid growth [6] - Foxconn reported record fourth-quarter revenue, driven by strong demand for AI products, highlighting the robust performance of companies involved in the AI sector [6] - The strong start for the AI trade sets the stage for the CES tech show in Las Vegas, with Nvidia's CEO scheduled to deliver a keynote address [7]

Core Insights - The comparison between Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD) and ConocoPhillips (COP) is relevant due to the expected soft oil prices in the coming year, highlighting the need for investors to consider midstream stability versus upstream exposure [2][3] Group 1: Oil Price Outlook - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects the average spot price of West Texas Intermediate crude to be $65.32 per barrel this year, down from $76.60 last year, and expects it to decline further to $51.42 per barrel by 2026 due to rising global oil inventories [5] - Advanced drilling techniques have significantly reduced operational costs in oil and gas, leading to low breakeven costs, which may allow exploration and production activities to remain profitable despite lower oil prices [6] Group 2: Company Fundamentals - EPD has outperformed COP over the past year, with a price increase of 9.4% compared to COP's decline of 2.4%, indicating a potential preference for EPD among investors [3] - Nearly 90% of EPD's contracts are inflation-protected, ensuring stable cash flows, and the company anticipates additional cash flows from key capital projects coming online next year [7][11][13] - COP's strong presence in the Lower 48, including the Permian, Eagle Ford, and Bakken regions, along with its acquisition of Marathon Oil, supports its low breakeven costs, allowing it to navigate a low oil price environment effectively [8][9] Group 3: Investment Considerations - Given the anticipated soft oil pricing environment, risk-averse investors may prefer EPD for its stable business model, while those willing to take on more risk might consider holding COP [14] - EPD is currently trading at a premium with a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 10.45x compared to the industry average of 4.98x, indicating a higher valuation assigned by investors [15]