Skip to main content Exclusive news, data and analytics for financial market professionalsLearn more aboutRefinitiv The U.S. is the world's top oil-producing nation as well as its top consumer, but analysts have been expecting output to slow in response to the decline in oil prices in recent years. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were trading near $67 on Friday, compared with about $77.50 at the same time in 2024. Total U.S. petroleum demand rose 624,000 bpd to 20.85 million bpd in December, high ...

Key Takeaways Q4 oil slumped on oversupply, while gas surged on LNG demand and winter boost.Q4 earnings for the Energy sector are seen up 14% YoY despite flat revenues and pricing strain.PBA, CTRA and LNG show weak ESP signals, limiting clear beat visibility.We are entering the thick of the fourth quarter earnings season for the Oil/Energy sector, with some of the S&P 500 companies expected to come up with results tomorrow. Energy investors are bracing for a mixed but potentially rewarding stretch. Oil pric ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise in oil prices, particularly reaching $70 a barrel, signals heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran, especially in light of military options being considered by the U.S. amid stalled nuclear negotiations [1] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - U.S. crude futures increased by more than 4.5%, or $2.79, settling at $65.05 a barrel, marking the largest daily increase since October 23 [1] - The price of West Texas Intermediate crude is approaching its highest level of 2026 and is within the upper range observed in recent months due to escalating fears of U.S. military action against Iran [1] Group 2: U.S. Military Options - The U.S. has stated that all military options regarding Iran remain on the table, which has contributed to the recent surge in oil prices [1] - The Trump administration's focus on lowering energy prices suggests that significant military actions to destroy Iranian oil infrastructure are unlikely [1]

Core Insights - The oil and energy sector faced significant challenges in Q4 2025, with fluctuating commodity prices and market instability impacting performance [1] - Oil prices for West Texas Intermediate crude averaged $59.64 per barrel, down from $70.69 in the same period last year, primarily due to global oversupply and reduced demand [2] - Natural gas prices increased to an average of $3.75 per million British thermal units, up from $2.44, driven by colder weather, strong LNG exports, and increased consumption from data centers [4] Oil Price Trends - The decline in oil prices was attributed to OPEC+ nations rolling back production cuts and consistent output from non-OPEC producers, leading to inventory builds of up to 2 million barrels per day [2] - Weaker oil demand was noted in key regions like China and Europe, influenced by economic slowdowns and the rise of electric vehicles [3] Earnings Performance - 16.7% of S&P 500 energy companies reported Q4 results, showing a 135% year-over-year earnings growth and a 3.6% revenue increase [5] - Despite some companies outperforming, the overall sector outlook suggests a modest 10.2% year-over-year earnings growth and a 2.2% revenue decline, indicating a disparity between early reporters and the broader sector [7] Company-Specific Insights - NOV Inc. is expected to report Q4 EPS of $0.25, down 39% year-over-year, with a low chance of an earnings beat due to an Earnings ESP of 0.00% [8][12] - Patterson-UTI Energy, with an Earnings ESP of +19.15%, is projected to report a loss of $0.09 per share, indicating a decline from the previous year's break-even earnings [8][16] - Phillips 66 anticipates Q4 EPS of $2.11, a significant increase of 1,506.67% from the prior year, with a high likelihood of an earnings beat due to an Earnings ESP of +0.88% [8][18]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are experiencing a significant decline due to reduced tensions between the U.S. and Iran, alongside spillover effects from the metals market [1] Group 1: Oil Price Movement - West Texas Intermediate crude for March delivery dropped 5.5% to $61.60 a barrel, following a 14% increase in January after five consecutive months of losses [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - The decline in oil prices is attributed to President Donald Trump's optimistic remarks regarding potential negotiations with Iran, which has alleviated some of the fear premium associated with the commodity [1] Group 3: OPEC+ Production Strategy - OPEC+ has indicated that the pause on production hikes will continue, which may influence future oil price trends [1]

Core Insights - The fourth-quarter 2025 earnings season is underway, with a focus on the oil and energy sector facing macroeconomic uncertainty and commodity price volatility [1] - A few energy companies are positioned to exceed earnings expectations, potentially leading to stock price boosts and investment opportunities [1] Oil and Gas Price Movements - West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices averaged $59.64 per barrel in Q4 2025, down from $70.69 the previous year, due to global oversupply and sluggish demand growth [3] - OPEC+ nations began unwinding production cuts in September, increasing output alongside steady non-OPEC supply, resulting in inventory builds of up to 2 million barrels per day [3] - Natural gas prices at Henry Hub averaged $3.75 per million British thermal units, up from $2.44 the previous year, driven by colder winter weather, high LNG exports, and increased consumption from data centers [5] Identifying Potential Market Beaters - Research indicates that stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 have a 70% chance of beating earnings expectations [7] - Earnings ESP is a proprietary tool that measures the percentage difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate [7] Company Highlights - **Imperial Oil Limited (IMO)**: Expected to report earnings of $1.40 per share, a 17.16% decrease from the prior year, but has a 1.79% Earnings ESP and a strong track record of exceeding estimates [10] - **ExxonMobil Corporation (XOM)**: Anticipated to post earnings of $1.64 per share, down 1.8% year over year, with a 2.29% Earnings ESP and a history of 5.71% average earnings surprises [12] - **Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN)**: Set to report earnings of 12 cents per share, flat year over year, with a notable 19.15% Earnings ESP and an average surprise of 17.5% [13] - **Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP)**: Expected to report earnings of 51 cents per share, a 15% drop from the prior year, but with a 14.85% Earnings ESP and a history of positive earnings surprises [14]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced a decline of 3% following U.S. President Donald Trump's comments that alleviated concerns about an imminent American strike on Iran [1] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil futures fell 3% to $64.47 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude also decreased by 3% to $60.17 per barrel [1] - Oil prices had previously surged on Tuesday after Trump canceled meetings with Iranian officials and indicated support for protesters, leading to heightened concerns about U.S. military intervention [2] Group 2: Political Context - Reports indicate that hundreds of individuals have died due to violent crackdowns by Iranian security forces amid mass unrest [2] - Trump has issued repeated threats of intervention if the Iranian government continues to harm civilians [2] Group 3: Market Reactions - The market reacted positively to Trump's statements on Wednesday, which suggested that violence in Iran had ceased and that there were no plans for further executions [1]

Oil Price Movements - Oil prices experienced a significant decline after President Trump's announcement regarding the cessation of killings of protesters in Iran, with Brent crude dropping from over $66.60 to below $64.50, marking a loss of more than 1.5% [1] - West Texas Intermediate crude mirrored this trend, initially rising above $62.30 before falling to below $60.20, resulting in a loss of 1.7% [2] Geopolitical Context - Trump's comments followed reports of the Iranian regime's plans to execute protesters amid ongoing unrest, with human rights organizations indicating that thousands have been killed [2] - The market had shown volatility earlier in the day due to speculation about imminent US military action against Iran, including potential airstrikes or cyber attacks [3] Economic Implications - Trump announced a 25% tariff on any business conducted with Iran, effective immediately, indicating a strong stance against the regime and suggesting potential economic repercussions for countries engaging with Iran [4] - Iran, a key player in global oil markets, produces over 3 million barrels of oil daily and exports approximately 1.2 million barrels, controlling the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for oil transportation [5]

Market Overview - Wall Street exhibited cautious trading despite a favorable inflation report, with the Consumer Price Index rising 2.7% year over year in December, matching previous readings and economist estimates [1] - The S&P 500 index remained flat at 6,970, close to its record high of 6,986 [2] Major Indices Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.5%, influenced by financial stocks [3] - The Nasdaq 100 saw a slight increase of 0.1%, supported by semiconductor strength [3] - The Russell 2000 gained 0.2%, marking its seventh positive session in the last eight [3] - Key indices performance as of midday: Russell 2000 at 2,639.46 (+0.2%), Nasdaq 100 at 25,821.82 (+0.1%), S&P 500 at 6,976.33 (0.0%), Dow Jones at 49,330.68 (-0.5%) [4] Earnings Reports - JPMorgan Chase & Co. shares fell over 3% despite beating earnings estimates, as investors were concerned about weaker investment-banking fees and cautious loan growth commentary [4] - Delta Air Lines Inc. stock dropped over 4% after issuing soft forward guidance due to cost pressures and normalization in post-pandemic travel demand [5] - Moderna Inc. emerged as the top performer in the S&P 500, rallying 14% after issuing optimistic growth forecasts for its vaccine business [5] Sector Performance - Intel Corp. shares rose 7.7% to $47.50 following an upgrade from KeyBanc, with a price target of $60 [6] - Advanced Micro Devices Inc. increased by 6.5% after a similar upgrade, with a price target of $270 [6] - The energy sector outperformed, with U.S. oil and gas stocks gaining as crude oil rose 2.7% to above $61 a barrel, reaching a three-month high [6] Cryptocurrency Movement - Bitcoin advanced 2.5% to above $93,000, aiming for a third consecutive session of gains [7]

Market Performance - Wall Street started 2026 positively, with large-cap indexes showing gains for three consecutive sessions, particularly the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which rose nearly 1% and reached record highs [1] - Major US indices performed as follows: Nasdaq 100 increased by 0.9%, S&P 500 by 0.6%, Dow Jones by 0.9%, and Russell 2000 by 0.2% [6] Commodity Prices - Gold prices rose for the third session, up 0.9% to $4,490 per ounce, while silver surged over 5% to exceed $80 per ounce due to supply shortages [2][1] - Copper prices increased by 1% to $6.07 per pound, setting new record highs [2] Mining and Memory Chip Stocks - Mining stocks gained alongside rising bullion prices, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF and Global X Silver Miners ETF both up 3.7% [2] - Memory chip stocks saw significant increases: Sandisk Corp. rose by 24.6%, Western Digital Corp. by 15.8%, and Seagate Technology by 12.4%, driven by expectations of rising memory prices amid a global supply crunch [3] Company-Specific Movements - Albemarle Corp. shares increased by 10.7% after Jefferies raised its price target, citing stronger long-term demand related to energy storage and electric vehicles [3] - Tesla Inc. experienced a decline of over 4%, marking its eighth drop in nine sessions due to competitive pressures in the robotaxi market and market share losses in Europe [4] - Energy stocks lagged, with the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund dropping 2.1% and Chevron Corp. falling nearly 4% after a previous rally [5] ETF Performance - The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF rose by 0.5% to $635.34, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF increased by 0.9% to $493.63 [7] - The Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund outperformed, rising by 2.0%, contrasting with the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund, which lagged [7]