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化妆品行业跟踪报告:大盘平稳,国货领先、高端改善
Haitong Securities International· 2025-11-17 06:05
Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the cosmetics industry, highlighting strong growth potential for specific companies [29]. Core Insights - The 2025 Double 11 event showed steady double-digit growth, with total GMV reaching RMB 1.695 trillion, a 14% increase from 2024. Instant retail demonstrated significant growth, with comprehensive e-commerce and community group buying also contributing positively [29][4]. - The beauty category maintained robust growth across multiple platforms, with skincare and makeup categories achieving growth rates between 5-15%. Domestic brands like PROYA and Winona performed particularly well, with PROYA maintaining the top position in Tmall's beauty rankings [29][14][17]. - The report emphasizes the trend of full-chain integration and one-stop services across platforms, with Tmall achieving its best growth in four years, driven by high-value user contributions from 88VIP [29][8]. Summary by Sections Double 11 Performance - The 2025 Double 11 event recorded a total GMV of RMB 1.695 trillion, marking a 14% increase from the previous year. Instant retail grew significantly, with GMV for comprehensive e-commerce at RMB 1.6191 trillion, and community group buying at RMB 90 billion [4][29]. - Tmall's performance was highlighted as the best in four years, with significant contributions from 88VIP and other platforms like JD.com and Douyin also showing strong growth [11][12]. Brand Performance - Companies such as Guangzhou Ruoyuchen Technology Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic Co., Ltd. reported impressive growth during Double 11, with Zhenjia's GMV increasing by 80% year-on-year and Feicui's GMV growing 35 times [25][29]. - The report notes that domestic brands excelled in the beauty category, with PROYA and other brands maintaining strong positions in the market [22][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-growth brands such as Ruoyuchen, Chicmax, and Mao Geping, as well as companies with stable fundamentals like Dentium and Shanghai Jahwa United. It also identifies companies expected to bottom out, such as PROYA and Lafang [29][38].
上美股份(02145.HK):1H净利同增31% 多品类/多品牌矩阵持续扩充
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-31 13:20
Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance aligns with previous forecasts, showing significant growth in revenue and net profit, indicating a strong operational trajectory and effective brand strategies [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 4.11 billion yuan for 1H25, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, exceeding the upper limit of the previous forecast [1] - Net profit reached 560 million yuan, up 34.7% year-on-year, also above the forecast range [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 520 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.6% [1] Development Trends - The company successfully expanded multiple product lines, with the brand "韩束" generating 3.34 billion yuan in revenue, a 14% increase year-on-year [1] - The brand "一页" saw a remarkable revenue increase of 146% year-on-year, reaching 400 million yuan [1] - Online sales accounted for 93% of total revenue, with a 20% year-on-year increase, while offline sales decreased by 11% [1][2] Profitability and Efficiency - The gross margin for 1H25 was 75.5%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.0 percentage points but an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous half [2] - The sales expense ratio decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 56.9%, attributed to a reduction in the proportion of sales through the main brand's Douyin platform [2] - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders increased by 1.3 percentage points to 12.8% [2] Brand Expansion Strategy - The company is expanding its brand matrix, having launched new brands in May and August, with plans for further launches in 2H25 [2] - The long-term strategy focuses on developing six major brands across three key sectors: skincare, hair care, and maternal and infant products [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2026 remains unchanged, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E ratio of 30x for 2025 and 23x for 2026 [3] - The target price has been raised by 8% to 106 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 17% based on the company's growth prospects [3]
上美股份(02145.HK):25H1净利润同比+34.7% 多品牌矩阵贡献增量
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-31 13:20
Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong performance for H1 2025, with revenue of 4.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, and a net profit of 560 million yuan, up 34.7% year-on-year, falling within the upper range of previous forecasts [1][2]. Revenue Breakdown - The multi-brand matrix continues to grow, with online revenue increasing by 20.1% year-on-year in H1 2025. By brand, revenue for 韩束, Newpage 一页, 红色小象, 一叶子, and other brands were 3.34 billion, 400 million, 160 million, 90 million, and 120 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +14.3%, +146.5%, -8.7%, -29.0%, and +2.9% [1]. - By channel, online and offline revenues were 3.81 billion and 270 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +20.1% and -10.6% [1]. - By segment, skincare, maternal and infant care, and other categories generated revenues of 3.42 billion, 560 million, and 130 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +10.2%, +65.0%, and +124.3% [1]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin increased by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year to 13.5%. The gross margin for H1 2025 was 75.5%, down 1 percentage point year-on-year, while the expense ratio was 63.2%, up 0.03 percentage points [2]. Brand Performance - The main brand 韩束 showed steady growth, maintaining the top position in beauty brands on Douyin, with GMV growth of +15.5% on Douyin and +26.1% on Tmall. Star products like 红蛮腰 sold over 15 million units, and the X 肽 series generated over 200 million yuan in sales [2]. - The Newpage 一页 brand rapidly expanded, targeting skincare products for ages 0-18, with significant sales during the 618 shopping festival, achieving GMV growth of +190% on Douyin and +106% on Tmall [2]. Brand Portfolio Expansion - The company has a robust pipeline of brands across multiple segments, including a sensitive skin care brand in collaboration with 昆药集团, a high-end skincare brand 聚光白, and a high-end anti-aging brand TAZU. Additionally, it is preparing to launch IP co-branded products in maternal and infant care and new hair care and makeup brands [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.11 billion, 1.41 billion, and 1.76 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 42.3%, 26.5%, and 24.8% respectively. The latest closing price corresponds to PE ratios of 30, 24, and 19 times for the respective years, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].