Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the cosmetics industry, highlighting strong growth potential for specific companies [29]. Core Insights - The 2025 Double 11 event showed steady double-digit growth, with total GMV reaching RMB 1.695 trillion, a 14% increase from 2024. Instant retail demonstrated significant growth, with comprehensive e-commerce and community group buying also contributing positively [29][4]. - The beauty category maintained robust growth across multiple platforms, with skincare and makeup categories achieving growth rates between 5-15%. Domestic brands like PROYA and Winona performed particularly well, with PROYA maintaining the top position in Tmall's beauty rankings [29][14][17]. - The report emphasizes the trend of full-chain integration and one-stop services across platforms, with Tmall achieving its best growth in four years, driven by high-value user contributions from 88VIP [29][8]. Summary by Sections Double 11 Performance - The 2025 Double 11 event recorded a total GMV of RMB 1.695 trillion, marking a 14% increase from the previous year. Instant retail grew significantly, with GMV for comprehensive e-commerce at RMB 1.6191 trillion, and community group buying at RMB 90 billion [4][29]. - Tmall's performance was highlighted as the best in four years, with significant contributions from 88VIP and other platforms like JD.com and Douyin also showing strong growth [11][12]. Brand Performance - Companies such as Guangzhou Ruoyuchen Technology Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic Co., Ltd. reported impressive growth during Double 11, with Zhenjia's GMV increasing by 80% year-on-year and Feicui's GMV growing 35 times [25][29]. - The report notes that domestic brands excelled in the beauty category, with PROYA and other brands maintaining strong positions in the market [22][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-growth brands such as Ruoyuchen, Chicmax, and Mao Geping, as well as companies with stable fundamentals like Dentium and Shanghai Jahwa United. It also identifies companies expected to bottom out, such as PROYA and Lafang [29][38].

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Shangmei Cosmetics Co., Ltd. (02145) has released a positive profit forecast for the first half of 2025, indicating strong revenue and net profit growth driven by its main brand Han Shu and the second growth curve brand New Page [1][2][4] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company expects revenue to be between RMB 4.09 billion and RMB 4.11 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3% [1] - The net profit is projected to reach between RMB 540 million and RMB 560 million, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [1] Group 2: Brand Strategy - The company is advancing a "single focus, multi-brand, globalization" strategy, creating a multi-brand matrix that includes the main brand Han Shu and the second curve brand New Page, achieving comprehensive layout across multiple categories and price ranges [2][12] - Han Shu has achieved a breakthrough in all-channel growth, with GMV on Douyin exceeding RMB 3.63 billion in the first half of 2025, maintaining its position as the top beauty brand on the platform [4][12] Group 3: Product Innovation - The Han Shu brand has successfully launched popular products, such as the Hong Man Yao series, which sold over 14 million sets, and the Bai Man Yao series, which continues to grow in the whitening market [4][9] - New Page has shown strong growth since its launch in 2022, with a strategic upgrade targeting "effective skincare for all ages" and achieving a sales increase of 106% during the 618 shopping festival [6][12] Group 4: Competitive Advantage - The An Min You brand targets the sensitive skin segment, utilizing innovative ingredients like Qinghao Oil AN+ to provide gentle solutions, enhancing the company's competitive edge in professional skincare [9][12] - The company has established a complete innovation matrix in the hair care sector, focusing on functional hair care and scalp anti-aging products, driven by consumer demand [9][12] Group 5: Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve a strategic goal of RMB 30 billion by 2030, leveraging clear strategic planning and ongoing research investment to transition from following international brands to leading industry development [19]