Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the profit forecast for Shumei Co., Ltd. (02145) for 2025-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E ratio of 30/23x for those years, and raises the target price by 8% to HKD 106, indicating a potential upside of 17% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue reached RMB 4.11 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, exceeding the upper limit of the previous earnings forecast [1] - The net profit for 1H25 was RMB 560 million, up 34.7% year-on-year, also above the previous forecast range [1] - The attributable net profit was RMB 520 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.6%, aligning with the expectations of the report [1] Group 2: Brand and Product Performance - The Han Shu brand generated RMB 3.34 billion in revenue, a 14% year-on-year increase, with successful expansion across multiple product lines [2] - The Yi Ye brand saw a significant revenue increase of 146% year-on-year, reaching RMB 400 million, with strong sales of its star product [2] - The Hongse Xiaoxiang brand generated RMB 160 million, indicating initial success in brand transformation [2] Group 3: Channel and Operational Efficiency - The company's gross margin improved by 1.7 percentage points to 75.5% in 1H25, while the sales expense ratio decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 56.9% [3] - The online sales revenue was RMB 3.81 billion, a 20% year-on-year increase, accounting for 93% of total revenue, with significant growth driven by platforms like Tmall and JD [2] - The management and R&D expense ratios increased slightly, but overall profitability improved, with the attributable net profit margin rising by 1.3 percentage points to 12.8% [3] Group 4: Future Growth Strategy - The company continues to expand its brand matrix, having launched new brands in May and August, with positive initial results [4] - Plans for the second half of 2025 include launching new brands targeting specific markets, such as maternal and infant products and professional cosmetics [4] - The long-term strategy focuses on developing six major brands across three key sectors over the next three years, aiming for significant growth in the cosmetics industry [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance aligns with previous forecasts, showing significant growth in revenue and net profit, indicating a strong operational trajectory and effective brand strategies [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 4.11 billion yuan for 1H25, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, exceeding the upper limit of the previous forecast [1] - Net profit reached 560 million yuan, up 34.7% year-on-year, also above the forecast range [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 520 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.6% [1] Development Trends - The company successfully expanded multiple product lines, with the brand "韩束" generating 3.34 billion yuan in revenue, a 14% increase year-on-year [1] - The brand "一页" saw a remarkable revenue increase of 146% year-on-year, reaching 400 million yuan [1] - Online sales accounted for 93% of total revenue, with a 20% year-on-year increase, while offline sales decreased by 11% [1][2] Profitability and Efficiency - The gross margin for 1H25 was 75.5%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.0 percentage points but an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous half [2] - The sales expense ratio decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 56.9%, attributed to a reduction in the proportion of sales through the main brand's Douyin platform [2] - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders increased by 1.3 percentage points to 12.8% [2] Brand Expansion Strategy - The company is expanding its brand matrix, having launched new brands in May and August, with plans for further launches in 2H25 [2] - The long-term strategy focuses on developing six major brands across three key sectors: skincare, hair care, and maternal and infant products [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2026 remains unchanged, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E ratio of 30x for 2025 and 23x for 2026 [3] - The target price has been raised by 8% to 106 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 17% based on the company's growth prospects [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong performance for H1 2025, with revenue of 4.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, and a net profit of 560 million yuan, up 34.7% year-on-year, falling within the upper range of previous forecasts [1][2]. Revenue Breakdown - The multi-brand matrix continues to grow, with online revenue increasing by 20.1% year-on-year in H1 2025. By brand, revenue for 韩束, Newpage 一页, 红色小象, 一叶子, and other brands were 3.34 billion, 400 million, 160 million, 90 million, and 120 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +14.3%, +146.5%, -8.7%, -29.0%, and +2.9% [1]. - By channel, online and offline revenues were 3.81 billion and 270 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +20.1% and -10.6% [1]. - By segment, skincare, maternal and infant care, and other categories generated revenues of 3.42 billion, 560 million, and 130 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +10.2%, +65.0%, and +124.3% [1]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin increased by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year to 13.5%. The gross margin for H1 2025 was 75.5%, down 1 percentage point year-on-year, while the expense ratio was 63.2%, up 0.03 percentage points [2]. Brand Performance - The main brand 韩束 showed steady growth, maintaining the top position in beauty brands on Douyin, with GMV growth of +15.5% on Douyin and +26.1% on Tmall. Star products like 红蛮腰 sold over 15 million units, and the X 肽 series generated over 200 million yuan in sales [2]. - The Newpage 一页 brand rapidly expanded, targeting skincare products for ages 0-18, with significant sales during the 618 shopping festival, achieving GMV growth of +190% on Douyin and +106% on Tmall [2]. Brand Portfolio Expansion - The company has a robust pipeline of brands across multiple segments, including a sensitive skin care brand in collaboration with 昆药集团, a high-end skincare brand 聚光白, and a high-end anti-aging brand TAZU. Additionally, it is preparing to launch IP co-branded products in maternal and infant care and new hair care and makeup brands [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.11 billion, 1.41 billion, and 1.76 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 42.3%, 26.5%, and 24.8% respectively. The latest closing price corresponds to PE ratios of 30, 24, and 19 times for the respective years, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue and net profit growth exceeding initial forecasts, indicating robust operational strength and market positioning [1]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 25H1 reached 4.108 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.3% [1]. - Net profit for 25H1 was 555.6 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34.7% [1]. - The board has proposed an interim dividend of 0.5 yuan per share [1]. Brand and Product Development - The brand 韩束 maintained its leading position in online beauty sales, achieving a 15.5% year-on-year increase in GMV on Douyin [2]. - New product launches, such as 韩束净颜清透洁面膏 and 韩束控油蓬松洗发水, ranked first in their respective categories on Douyin [2]. - The high-end maternal and infant brand newpage saw significant growth, with revenue of 397 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 146.5% [2]. Multi-Brand Strategy - The company is expanding its multi-brand strategy to meet diverse consumer demands, with strong growth in sensitive skin care brand 安敏优 and the recent launch of the high-end anti-aging brand TAZU [3]. - The 防脱 brand 极方 achieved GMV of 10-25 million yuan since its launch in May [3]. - The company is also preparing to launch a new maternal and infant brand based on well-known IPs, such as 面包超人 and 奥特曼 [3]. Cost Management and R&D Investment - The company optimized its sales expense ratio, achieving a gross margin of 75.5%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage point year-on-year [3]. - The sales and distribution expense ratio was 56.9%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved efficiency in brand promotion and channel construction [3]. - R&D expenses accounted for 2.5% of revenue, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase year-on-year, with ongoing investments in innovation and patent applications [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 1.02 billion, 1.28 billion, and 1.56 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 2.56, 3.22, and 3.92 yuan [3]. - The target price is set at 111.30 HKD, based on a 40x PE for 2025, reflecting confidence in the brand's performance and market strategy [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company reported impressive revenue and profit growth for 25H1, with revenue reaching 4.108 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, and net profit of 556 million yuan, up 34.7%, both nearing the upper limit of previous forecasts [1] - The board has proposed an interim dividend of 0.5 yuan per share [1] - The company is expanding its product categories, with strong growth in mid-to-high-end brands and a well-structured business model across six major segments, indicating a high growth ceiling [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - For 25H1, the company achieved revenue of 4.108 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, and net profit of 556 million yuan, up 34.7% [1] - The revenue and net profit growth rates are close to the upper limits of the company's prior forecasts [1] Brand and Product Development - The brand "韩束" maintained its leading position in online beauty sales, with a 15.5% year-on-year increase in GMV on Douyin [2] - The new high-end mother and baby brand "newpage" saw revenue of 397 million yuan, a remarkable year-on-year growth of 146.5% [3] - The company is actively launching new products across various categories, including skincare and makeup, to meet diverse consumer demands [4] Financial Metrics and Forecasts - The company achieved a gross margin of 75.5%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.0 percentage points [5] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 1.02 billion, 1.28 billion, and 1.56 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.56, 3.22, and 3.92 yuan [6] - The target price is set at 111.30 HKD, based on a 40x PE for 2025 [6]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the maternal and infant industry, driven by supportive policies and expected growth in consumer spending [4][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the transition of China's fertility policy towards comprehensive support for childbirth, which is expected to enhance consumer confidence and spending in the maternal and infant sector [4][17]. - The maternal and infant market has shown resilience, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 15% from 2018 to 2024, despite a decline in birth rates [6][32]. - The rise of domestic brands in the maternal and infant sector is notable, with significant market share gains in various sub-sectors [6][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Promotion of Fertility - China's fertility policy has evolved from encouraging childbirth to comprehensive support, with various measures being implemented to boost birth rates [4][10]. - The government is focusing on creating a "fertility-friendly" society, with financial incentives and support services being rolled out across different regions [17][18]. 2. Market Growth and Consumer Trends - Despite a decline in newborn numbers, the maternal and infant market is experiencing growth due to consumption upgrades and the diversification of product offerings [6][32]. - The market size is projected to reach approximately 762.99 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15% [31]. 3. Beneficiary Industries and Companies - Various sectors are expected to benefit from the growth in the maternal and infant market, including pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, apparel, and household goods [6][41]. - Key companies highlighted include: - Pharmaceuticals: Jinxin Reproductive, LIZHU Group, and BGI Genomics [6][41]. - Dairy: Yili Group and China Feihe [6][42]. - Apparel: Semir and Anta [6][49]. - Household goods: Bear Electric [6][61]. 4. Competitive Landscape - The report notes an improvement in the competitive landscape, with domestic brands gaining market share across various segments, including infant formula and baby care products [6][37]. - The concentration ratio (CR10) for domestic brands has significantly increased, indicating a shift in market dynamics favoring local players [6][37].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rapid growth and innovative approach of the brand "newpage," which has achieved over 100% revenue growth for three consecutive years in the Chinese infant care market, positioning itself as a leading player and a trendsetter in the industry [2]. Group 1: Brand Strategy and Market Positioning - "newpage" emphasizes a philosophy of "medical research co-creation," focusing on efficacy and high-end positioning to address the needs of parents overwhelmed by fragmented parenting information [3][5]. - The brand has launched targeted product lines for different age groups, including a repair series for children aged 6-12 and an acne control series for teenagers aged 12-18, marking a strategic upgrade to cover all age ranges [4][17]. - The marketing campaign aims to alleviate parenting anxiety by simplifying skincare choices through scientific solutions, allowing parents to trust the brand's expertise without feeling overwhelmed by options [6][12]. Group 2: Consumer Engagement and Marketing Tactics - The brand's marketing strategy leverages emotional resonance, addressing common parenting concerns through relatable scenarios, thus fostering a connection with consumers [7][10]. - Collaborations with platforms like Douyin and Tmall have enhanced brand visibility and engagement, utilizing innovative marketing tactics to reach a broader audience [10][21]. - The brand's narrative shifts from traditional marketing to a more empathetic and scientific approach, aiming to build trust and reduce decision fatigue for parents [27][28]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Trends - "newpage" reported a remarkable revenue growth of 498% in 2023, with a continued strong growth forecast of 161.64% for 2024, indicating robust market demand [21][22]. - The overall infant care market has seen a structural shift, with online sales in major channels increasing by 21.8%, reflecting a growing preference for domestic brands and a move towards more specialized care products [26][23]. - The brand's success is attributed to its ability to meet the evolving demands of modern parents, who prioritize product efficacy and safety, thus transforming the market from a "stock market" to a "value market" [26][27].