智通财经APP获悉，根据TrendForce集邦咨询观察，由于消费市场需求提前在上半年被透支，下半年旺 季未能如预期发挥效应，市场原本普遍预估4Q25价格将进入盘整。然而，HDD供给短缺与过长交期， 使CSP(云端服务供应商)将储存需求快速转向QLC Enterprise SSD，短期内急单大量涌入，造成市场明显 波动。同时，SanDisk(闪迪)率先宣布调涨10%，Micron(美光)也因价格与产能配置考量暂停报价，使得 供应端氛围由保守转为积极。在此外溢效应带动下，预估NAND Flash第四季各类产品合约价将全面上 涨，平均涨幅达5-10%。 | | 3Q25E | 4Q25F | | --- | --- | --- | | Broom 15 | | | | Total NAND Flash | up 3~8% | up 5~10% | | 331 - Marce - Dixto Market Colors of | | And Callery of Con- | TrendForce集邦咨询指出，从供给面来看，NAND Flash受惠于上半年减产与优先去化库存，市场供需平 衡明显改善，原厂库存与价格压 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in the NAND Flash market due to supply shortages and increased demand from cloud service providers, leading to a price increase in Q4 2025 [2][5][10] Supply and Demand Dynamics - NAND Flash supply has improved due to production cuts and inventory reduction in the first half of 2025, alleviating price pressures [5] - The demand for QLC (Quad-Level Cell) SSDs is rising, driven by the need for high-capacity storage in generative AI applications [5][6] - Despite weak consumer demand and excess inventory in the channel, enterprise SSD demand is expected to grow due to increased orders from server OEMs and CSPs [6][8] Price Trends - NAND Flash contract prices are projected to rise by an average of 5-10% in Q4 2025, following a 3-8% increase in Q3 2025 [3] - SanDisk and Micron have announced price increases, indicating a shift in the supply-side sentiment from conservative to positive [2][5] Product Segmentation - Client SSDs have seen a significant reduction in inventory levels, leading to a more balanced supply-demand situation [7] - Enterprise SSD suppliers are adjusting their production strategies to meet the growing demand for high-capacity products, particularly those exceeding 120TB [8] - eMMC/UFS products are facing weak demand and intense competition from local manufacturers, which may limit price increases despite manufacturers' efforts to recover losses [9] Manufacturing Adjustments - NAND Flash wafer manufacturers are prioritizing high-margin product lines, which may lead to tighter supply and further price increases in Q4 2025 [10]

Summary of Shenzhen Longsys Electronics Co Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shenzhen Longsys Electronics Co Ltd - **Stock Code**: 301308.SZ - **Industry**: Technology Semiconductors - **Region**: Asia Pacific Key Points Financial Performance - **1Q25 Revenue**: Rmb4.26 billion, down 4.4% YoY but up 1.5% QoQ due to continued pricing pressure [10][14] - **Net Loss**: Narrowed to Rmb202 million in 1Q25 from Rmb330 million in 4Q24, attributed to better cost control and reduced inventory write-downs; breakeven expected in 2Q25 [10][12] - **Price Target Adjustment**: Revised down from Rmb125.00 to Rmb100.00 based on residual income model, reflecting a modest upside potential [2][11] Market Conditions - **Investor Sentiment**: Market has priced in a downcycle scenario amid macro uncertainties, with the stock trading at trough multiples [3][11] - **Tariff Impact**: Limited direct impact from tariffs as most supplies are from non-US origin; US customers contribute a low to mid single-digit percentage of revenue [5][10] - **Pricing Trends**: Management expects a weaker pricing trend in 2H25 due to demand pull-in in 1H25 [3][6] Future Outlook - **2Q25 and 2025 Outlook**: Management remains positive on overall pricing trends, with expectations of a ~10% QoQ increase in eMMC/UFS and 3-8% for SSDs [6][12] - **Drivers for Growth**: Domestic AI capex growth and supply discipline are expected to support market growth [6][10] - **Cautious Approach**: Analysts remain cautious about 2H25 pricing forecasts due to uncertainties in demand outlook [17] Business Strategy - **Diversification Plans**: Longsys plans to leverage its Brazil-located Zilia fab to mitigate tariff risks [5][12] - **New Business Expansion**: Enterprise business grew 200% YoY in 1Q25, indicating strong execution and synergies across segments [12][14] - **Customer Commitments**: Tier 1 customers are willing to commit to large orders under TCM and PTM models, which could stabilize growth [12][17] Earnings Revisions - **Revised EPS Estimates**: 2025-2027 EPS revised down by 38%, 17%, and 15% respectively due to cautious outlook on memory cycle [15][23] - **Gross Margin Adjustments**: SSD segment gross margin assumptions revised down as the company prioritizes market share over profitability [15][23] Additional Insights - **Supply Discipline**: Supply discipline may last longer amid macro uncertainties, with healthy inventory levels among domestic customers [17] - **Long-term Growth Potential**: Longsys' self-help strategies, including overseas expansion and new business models, are expected to enhance mid/long-term growth and margin profiles [11][17] Conclusion Shenzhen Longsys Electronics Co Ltd is navigating a challenging market environment with cautious optimism. While facing pricing pressures and macro uncertainties, the company is focusing on diversification, customer commitments, and strategic growth initiatives to enhance its long-term prospects.