手机品牌即便在淡季对存储器需求不强，然因Mobile DRAM供给紧缩情况难在短期内改善，且未来数季合约价可能再升高，品牌于第一季维持较强拉货 力道。预计LPDDR4X、LPDDR5X皆呈现供不应求、资源分配不均情况，价格走强。 根据TrendForce集邦咨询最新调查，2026年第一季由于DRAM原厂大规模转移先进制程、新产能至Server、HBM应用，以满足AI Server需求，导致其他市 场供给严重紧缩，预估整体一般型DRAM(Conventional DRAM)合约价将季增55-60%。NAND Flash则因原厂控管产能，和Server强劲拉货排挤其他应用， 预计各类产品合约价持续上涨33-38%。 | | 4Q25 | 1Q26E | | --- | --- | --- | | Total DRAM | Conventional DRAM: up 45~50% HBM Blended: up 50~55% | Conventional DRAM: up 55~60% HBM Blended: up 50~55% | | Total NAND Flash | up 33~38% | up 33~3 ...

Core Insights - Silicon Motion Technology Corporation (SIMO) has shown positive performance in its Q3 2025 earnings report, with increases in revenue and margins, and a faster-than-expected ramp-up in the Gen5 product mix [1] - The demand for eMMC/UFS remains strong, indicating a solid market position for the company [1] Company Performance - Revenue and margins have increased, reflecting strong operational performance [1] - The Gen5 product mix has stepped up more rapidly than anticipated, suggesting effective product development and market strategy [1] Market Demand - There is robust demand for eMMC/UFS products, which bodes well for the company's future growth prospects [1]

Core Insights - Silicon Motion Technology Corporation (SIMO) has shown positive performance in Q3 2025, with increased revenue and margins, and a faster-than-expected ramp-up in the Gen5 product mix [1] - The demand for eMMC/UFS remains strong, indicating a solid market position for the company [1] Financial Performance - Revenue and margins have improved, reflecting the company's operational efficiency and market demand [1] - The Gen5 product mix has stepped up more rapidly than anticipated, suggesting effective product development and market strategy [1] Market Demand - There is a robust demand for eMMC/UFS products, which is a positive indicator for the company's future growth prospects [1]

Core Insights - The demand in the consumer market was overdrawn in the first half of the year, leading to a weaker-than-expected peak season in the second half, with forecasts for Q4 2025 indicating price stabilization. However, HDD supply shortages and long lead times have shifted CSPs' storage demand towards QLC Enterprise SSDs, resulting in a surge of urgent orders and significant market volatility [1] - SanDisk announced a 10% price increase, while Micron paused pricing due to capacity considerations, shifting the supply-side sentiment from conservative to positive. Consequently, NAND Flash contract prices are expected to rise across all product categories in Q4, with an average increase of 5-10% [1][2] Supply Side Analysis - NAND Flash supply has improved due to production cuts and inventory reduction in the first half of the year, alleviating price pressures. Most manufacturers are focusing capital expenditures on advanced process upgrades to optimize cost structures and concentrate on high-margin products, reducing price competition and supporting prices [4] - QLC products are widely used in SSDs due to their cost advantages, particularly driven by the demand for massive data storage from generative AI, prompting manufacturers to focus on QLC capacity [4] Demand Side Analysis - In the second half of the year, NAND Flash demand is affected by weakened consumer purchasing power and a slowdown in OEM procurement, with significant machine inventory in the channel awaiting clearance. However, the demand for Enterprise SSDs has surged due to server OEMs and CSPs actively clearing inventory and the upcoming release of NVIDIA's new Blackwell chips in the second half of 2025, maintaining positive overall demand for NAND Flash [4] Client SSD Market - Client SSD manufacturers have significantly reduced inventory levels through production cuts and supply strategy adjustments, leading to a more balanced market. The high demand for cost-effective large-capacity QLC products further supports this demand [5] Enterprise SSD Market - SSD suppliers are reassessing order volumes for products exceeding 120TB due to a surge in customer demand and are strategically increasing the production ratio of QLC Flash to meet market changes. Current market conditions indicate that supplier inventory levels have fallen below healthy standards, with a tightening supply expected to drive up prices in Q4 [6] eMMC/UFS Market - In the context of a profit-oriented NAND Flash supply chain, eMMC/UFS products face weak demand and intense competition from local manufacturers in the Chinese market, giving domestic smartphone brands greater bargaining power. With module manufacturers holding high inventory levels, price competition may further compress price increases, although manufacturers are expected to raise prices in Q4 to recover losses [7] NAND Flash Wafer Supply - NAND Flash wafer manufacturers are experiencing a temporary decline in output due to production line adjustments during process transitions. To compensate for previous losses, manufacturers are prioritizing high-margin product lines, further tightening wafer supply to module manufacturers. With ongoing enterprise AI investment momentum, supply is expected to remain tight, contributing to price increases in Q4 [9]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in the NAND Flash market due to supply shortages and increased demand from cloud service providers, leading to a price increase in Q4 2025 [2][5][10] Supply and Demand Dynamics - NAND Flash supply has improved due to production cuts and inventory reduction in the first half of 2025, alleviating price pressures [5] - The demand for QLC (Quad-Level Cell) SSDs is rising, driven by the need for high-capacity storage in generative AI applications [5][6] - Despite weak consumer demand and excess inventory in the channel, enterprise SSD demand is expected to grow due to increased orders from server OEMs and CSPs [6][8] Price Trends - NAND Flash contract prices are projected to rise by an average of 5-10% in Q4 2025, following a 3-8% increase in Q3 2025 [3] - SanDisk and Micron have announced price increases, indicating a shift in the supply-side sentiment from conservative to positive [2][5] Product Segmentation - Client SSDs have seen a significant reduction in inventory levels, leading to a more balanced supply-demand situation [7] - Enterprise SSD suppliers are adjusting their production strategies to meet the growing demand for high-capacity products, particularly those exceeding 120TB [8] - eMMC/UFS products are facing weak demand and intense competition from local manufacturers, which may limit price increases despite manufacturers' efforts to recover losses [9] Manufacturing Adjustments - NAND Flash wafer manufacturers are prioritizing high-margin product lines, which may lead to tighter supply and further price increases in Q4 2025 [10]

Summary of Shenzhen Longsys Electronics Co Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shenzhen Longsys Electronics Co Ltd - **Stock Code**: 301308.SZ - **Industry**: Technology Semiconductors - **Region**: Asia Pacific Key Points Financial Performance - **1Q25 Revenue**: Rmb4.26 billion, down 4.4% YoY but up 1.5% QoQ due to continued pricing pressure [10][14] - **Net Loss**: Narrowed to Rmb202 million in 1Q25 from Rmb330 million in 4Q24, attributed to better cost control and reduced inventory write-downs; breakeven expected in 2Q25 [10][12] - **Price Target Adjustment**: Revised down from Rmb125.00 to Rmb100.00 based on residual income model, reflecting a modest upside potential [2][11] Market Conditions - **Investor Sentiment**: Market has priced in a downcycle scenario amid macro uncertainties, with the stock trading at trough multiples [3][11] - **Tariff Impact**: Limited direct impact from tariffs as most supplies are from non-US origin; US customers contribute a low to mid single-digit percentage of revenue [5][10] - **Pricing Trends**: Management expects a weaker pricing trend in 2H25 due to demand pull-in in 1H25 [3][6] Future Outlook - **2Q25 and 2025 Outlook**: Management remains positive on overall pricing trends, with expectations of a ~10% QoQ increase in eMMC/UFS and 3-8% for SSDs [6][12] - **Drivers for Growth**: Domestic AI capex growth and supply discipline are expected to support market growth [6][10] - **Cautious Approach**: Analysts remain cautious about 2H25 pricing forecasts due to uncertainties in demand outlook [17] Business Strategy - **Diversification Plans**: Longsys plans to leverage its Brazil-located Zilia fab to mitigate tariff risks [5][12] - **New Business Expansion**: Enterprise business grew 200% YoY in 1Q25, indicating strong execution and synergies across segments [12][14] - **Customer Commitments**: Tier 1 customers are willing to commit to large orders under TCM and PTM models, which could stabilize growth [12][17] Earnings Revisions - **Revised EPS Estimates**: 2025-2027 EPS revised down by 38%, 17%, and 15% respectively due to cautious outlook on memory cycle [15][23] - **Gross Margin Adjustments**: SSD segment gross margin assumptions revised down as the company prioritizes market share over profitability [15][23] Additional Insights - **Supply Discipline**: Supply discipline may last longer amid macro uncertainties, with healthy inventory levels among domestic customers [17] - **Long-term Growth Potential**: Longsys' self-help strategies, including overseas expansion and new business models, are expected to enhance mid/long-term growth and margin profiles [11][17] Conclusion Shenzhen Longsys Electronics Co Ltd is navigating a challenging market environment with cautious optimism. While facing pricing pressures and macro uncertainties, the company is focusing on diversification, customer commitments, and strategic growth initiatives to enhance its long-term prospects.