Core Insights - The small-cap sector in the U.S. stock market has shown strong performance recently, with investors cashing in on profits after years of losses, particularly in the Russell 2000 index [1][4] - Despite the recent gains, investor confidence remains fragile due to past experiences of false dawns in the small-cap sector [2][4] - The Russell 2000 index is the last major U.S. stock index to reach a historical high after the recent bear market, taking four years to recover [4] Fund Flows and Market Sentiment - Approximately $5.4 billion has been withdrawn from the iShares Russell 2000 ETF this year, even as the index reaches new highs [1] - The small-cap sector has experienced its longest consecutive weekly gains in five years, driven by expectations of further interest rate cuts [4] - However, there is a general unease in the market, with high-risk assets, including small-cap stocks and cryptocurrencies, appearing overvalued [4][5] Analyst Perspectives - Analysts suggest that the recent small-cap trading related to interest rate cuts may have ended, recommending a shift back to AI-related stocks [5] - There is a notable discrepancy between the Russell 2000 index's gains and the outflows from its associated ETF, indicating a potential rotation of funds towards large-cap stocks [7] - Investors may need to wait several months or even longer for small-cap stocks to perform on par with large-cap stocks before reallocating funds back into the small-cap sector [7] Future Outlook - For small-cap stocks to attract sustained inflows, a more favorable business environment is necessary, which would allow them to outperform large-cap stocks [7]

Group 1 - The small-cap stock bubble is raising alarms as they have outperformed large-cap stocks in Q3 2025, driven by a rally in technology stocks [1][2] - The Russell 2000 index has seen a gain of over 10% as of September 29, 2025, surpassing the S&P 500's approximately 7% increase [2][4] - Small-cap stocks have historically performed best during periods of Federal Reserve easing and economic recovery, but their recent performance contrasts sharply with earlier in the year [4] Group 2 - The technology sector, particularly semiconductors, has led the recent surge in small-cap stocks, with notable performers like Astera and Credo seeing gains of over 100% and 60% respectively in Q3 [5][10] - Despite the strong performance, concerns arise as the rebound is driven by a limited number of growth and tech stocks, leading to questions about overall value [11] - The forward P/E ratio for the iShares Russell 2000 ETF has reached 24.64, indicating that small-cap stocks may no longer offer the value they once did [11][12] Group 3 - The iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF has an alarming forward P/E ratio of 36.38, suggesting a bubble similar to large-cap tech stocks [12] - Some small-cap stocks, like Oklo, have seen significant price increases without generating any revenue, raising further concerns about valuation sustainability [12] - Defensive sectors such as consumer staples and healthcare are recommended for small-cap investments, as cyclical sectors may struggle without substantial interest rate cuts [14]

瑞银方面也呼应了这一观点，包括肖恩·西蒙兹在内的策略师指出，"随着降息缓解资产负债表压力， 小盘股和低质量股票可能继续跑赢大盘"。截至上周五的三周内， 罗素2000指数累计上涨9%，同期纳 斯达克100指数(大盘科技股为主)仅上涨3.2% 。 瑞银策略师提到，自5月初触底以来， 罗素2000成分股公司的盈利修正幅度大幅上升 ，与指数反弹趋 势一致。此前数月，小盘股板块一直落后于整体股市，且自2021年11月以来从未创下历史新高。 上周五，鲍威尔的鸽派言论让交易员确信 降息"几乎已成定局"，罗素2000指数单日大涨3.9%，创下4 月初以来最佳单日表现 。投资者随即做出反应，向iShares罗素2000 ETF(小盘股主要ETF)注入的资金 规模达到去年11月以来最高。在周一小幅下跌1%之前，这一小盘股基准指数相对纳斯达克100指数的 表现，创下2024年7月以来的最佳单周水平。 加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳在报告中指出，"杰 克逊霍尔会议后，小盘股终于突破盘整"，其观点聚焦鲍威尔在会议上的演讲。她表示，受投资者仓 位调整以及部分资金从大型科技 ...