↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 以下文章来源于长线是金11 ，作者长线是金11 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 长线是金11 . 记录本人的投资心得，希望能对大家有所帮助 甚至更为夸张的是，2014-2015年牛市中，茅台、美的、平安、招行这些绩优股的表现均要远远弱于市场的，但是在接下来的股灾、千股跌停 中，它们反而异常抗跌成为避风港，并在牛市结束后，于2016-2020年才真正开始了更加精彩的表现。 19-21年的小牛市的风格切换没有上述两次那么清晰，但是也并非没有切换痕迹。2019年1-4月的井喷，靠得就是东方通信、卓胜微这些新兴产 业的异军突起；但是好景不长，之后市场很快就陷入了调整，一直到新冠疫情全面爆发；2020年4月之后，市场之所以能从疫情的低迷状态中走 出，靠得则是茅台、中免、美的、海天等核心资产的企稳走强。 大票小票相互切换，为什么会出现这种现象呢？其中的内在逻辑其实也比较好理解：1、市场总是在不知不觉中慢慢走好，必然存在大量后知后觉 的踏空资金； 作者：长线是金11 来源：雪球 前几天听一个人气大V说，见证过2007年大牛市，也亲身 ...

Group 1 - The focus of the U.S. stock market is shifting from the "seven giants" tech stocks to small-cap stocks, with the S&P SmallCap 600 and Russell 2000 indices rising by 6% and 7% respectively over the past three months, although still lagging behind the Nasdaq 100's nearly 9% increase [1][3] - Francis Gannon from Royce Investment Partners believes that value-oriented small-cap stocks will benefit the most from potential interest rate cuts, as these companies hold more floating-rate debt compared to large enterprises, making their financing costs more directly impacted [1][2] - The recent "Big and Beautiful" bill passed by Congress, which includes stimulus and tax reduction measures, may further boost the performance of small-cap companies [1] Group 2 - Bank of America’s strategy team indicates that interest rate cuts could lead to stronger short-term excess returns for small-cap stocks, which are more sensitive to interest rate changes [2] - The report highlights that during the Federal Reserve's easing cycle, value-oriented small-cap stocks tend to outperform growth stocks, with high-quality stocks outperforming high-risk companies [2] - The S&P 600 index currently has a price-to-earnings ratio of about 17 times, nearly 30% lower than that of the S&P 500, indicating a valuation advantage for small-cap stocks [2]

固 定 收 益 研 转债市场风格或切换 固定收益研究团队 ——固收专题 固 收 专 题 开 源 证 券 证 券 -2025.8.17 续上涨行情—固收专题》-2025.8.16 相关研究报告 《Q2 货币政策报告学习，政策边际变 化下的债市波动 — 固 收 专 题 》 《经济结构向好优化，政策引导稳中 有进—事件点评》-2025.8.17 《产业趋势和流动性宽松下，转债延 具有超额收益。 第三种，经济增速回落、通胀继续回落，但市场预期修复，类似于 2014 年下半 年。这一情况下，核心资产有望跟随补涨。类似于 2014 年 11-12 月。 不难发现，无论是哪一种情形下，核心资产均具备良好的优势。 我们认为，2025 年下半年随着一系列政策逐渐见效下，经济更可能是保持稳定 和通胀的持续回升。 红利和核心资产的跷跷板效应或切换 回顾历史，2019 年-2025 年 4 月，核心资产和红利资产出现明显的跷跷板效应。 其中，2019 年-2021 年 1 月．核心资产上涨、红利资产震荡行情；2021 年 2 月-2025 年 4 月，红利资产持续上涨、核心资产明显下跌。 我们认为，展望 2025 年下半年，核心资产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, with major indices reaching new highs for the year, indicating a bullish sentiment among investors [7]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 13, the A-share market experienced a significant rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the previous high of 3674 points from October 8 of last year, reaching a peak of 3688.63 points, the highest since December 2021 [7]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.15 trillion yuan, marking a return to above 2 trillion yuan after 114 trading days [7]. - The next target for the Shanghai Composite Index is projected to be 3731.69 points, which was the peak on February 18, 2021, requiring a further increase of 1.29% from the latest closing price [7]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Among the 4054 stocks listed before February 18, 2021, 2766 stocks (over 68%) have seen their latest closing prices exceed the highest price on that date, while 1288 stocks (nearly 32%) have declined [7]. - The median price change for these stocks during the period was 28.9% [7]. - Since the peak of 3731 points, 789 stocks have doubled in price, with Huicheng Environmental Protection showing the largest increase, exceeding 16 times its price at that peak [8]. Group 3: Index Performance - The performance of various indices has diverged since the peak of 3731 points, with the small-cap index, the CSI 2000, showing the highest increase of 56.43%, while the large-cap indices, such as the SSE 50 and CSI 300, have both declined by approximately 30% [7].

Core Insights - The small-cap stocks have paused while large-cap stocks take the lead in the market rally, with significant capital inflow into the market [1] - The CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) has attracted over 140 million in capital, reaching a historical high, and its fund size has surpassed 1 billion [1] - The CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF has increased over 100% in the past year and nearly 50% year-to-date, leading the market in broad index ETFs [1] - The ETF has consistently generated excess returns each quarter since its inception, totaling over 40%, earning it the title of "King of Index Enhancements" [1] Market Conditions - The high volatility of small-cap stocks has been fully released due to the dual stimulus of a low-interest-rate environment and policies favoring specialized and innovative enterprises [1] - The rolling price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 2000 index is nearing 140 times, which is at a historical high over the past decade, indicating a potential risk for investors [1] Investment Strategy - Professional institutions recommend a strategy of gradually building positions during market pullbacks rather than chasing high prices [1] - It is advised to allocate some investments to large-cap blue-chip stocks with more attractive valuations to achieve risk hedging in investment portfolios [1]

Core Viewpoint - The small-cap stocks are experiencing a rebound, with the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF showing significant performance and trading activity, indicating strong market interest despite external uncertainties [1]. Market Performance - As of August 12, the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) narrowed its decline to 0.15% after previously dropping by 1.29% - Over the past 10 days, the ETF has increased by 5.66%, and over the past 20 days, it has risen by 10.66% - Year-to-date, the ETF has gained 48.96%, leading the performance among broad market ETFs [1]. Trading Activity - Trading volume has increased, with a turnover rate of 21.24% and a transaction value of approximately 170 million - This represents a 19.01% increase in trading volume compared to the previous day - The net inflow during the trading session was about 110 million, marking a historical high [1]. Market Outlook - The second-quarter report for the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF indicates that external uncertainties remain high, which may lead to fluctuations in market confidence - The small-cap style has been strong in the first half of the year, but this also increases the risk associated with market capitalization styles - The report emphasizes the need to closely monitor market volatility and prepare for risk management in the context of heavy speculative sentiment [1].

Group 1 - The stock price of Fuda Alloy is reported at 17.84 yuan as of August 5, 2025, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day, with an opening price of 17.96 yuan, a high of 18.00 yuan, and a low of 17.81 yuan, with a trading volume of 32,241 hands and a transaction amount of 0.58 billion yuan [1] - Fuda Alloy operates in the non-ferrous metals industry, with its main business in the industrial sector, which accounted for 97.71% of the company's revenue in 2024 [1] - The company is registered in Zhejiang and is categorized as a small-cap stock [1] Group 2 - As of August 5, 2025, Fuda Alloy and its subsidiaries have a guarantee balance of 1.22 billion yuan, with a total guarantee amount of 1.969 billion yuan, representing 125.67% and 202.8% of the most recent audited net assets, respectively [1] - The latest guarantee was a joint liability guarantee of 44 million yuan provided for a wholly-owned subsidiary for bank credit [1] Group 3 - On August 5, 2025, the net outflow of main funds for Fuda Alloy was 8.8685 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 32.4783 million yuan over the past five trading days [1]

Group 1 - The report from Jefferies indicates that the momentum driving the recent highs in the U.S. stock market, particularly among large-cap growth stocks, is expected to gain new energy [1] - Analysts Andrew Greenebaum and Chris Wood noted that while the overall market breadth is weak, the depth of the market is strong, suggesting potential for upward movement in stock prices [1] - Currently, 55% of stocks in the Russell 3000 index are above their 200-day moving average, which is below the long-term average, indicating a potential for an upward trend similar to previous strong years [4] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index has risen by 28% since its low on April 8, with large tech companies like Microsoft and Nvidia significantly contributing to this increase [1] - Only 3.8% of stocks in the Russell 3000 are at their 52-week highs, compared to 9.3% in the S&P 500, highlighting a disparity in stock performance [4] - Greenebaum emphasized that the performance of large-cap value stocks has shown significant improvement, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics despite the underperformance of value and small-cap stocks this year [4]

Core Viewpoint - The small-cap stocks are showing significant performance, driven by liquidity and market conditions, with the 中证2000增强 ETF leading in inflows and returns this year [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The 中证2000增强 ETF (159552) has increased by 1.71% as of 14:12 on July 8, with a 10-day gain of 5.89% and a 20-day gain of 7.47%, totaling a year-to-date increase of 32.54% [1] - The fund has seen a net inflow of over 10 million, marking seven consecutive days of inflows, totaling over 61 million, with a year-to-date growth in scale of 746.75% [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Research from 华安证券 indicates that from 2010 to 2024, the median elasticity coefficient for small-cap stocks is 1.73, compared to 1.52 for mid-cap and 0.92 for large-cap stocks, suggesting that small-cap stocks outperform during market uptrends [1] - Recent months have seen significant gains in sectors like military and innovative pharmaceuticals, which have favored small-cap stocks [1] - The central bank's ongoing liquidity easing signals and decreasing market funding costs have made small-cap stocks more sensitive to liquidity changes, contributing to their rise [1] - Historical data shows that during periods of ample liquidity, small-cap stocks tend to achieve more pronounced excess returns [1] - Industry predictions suggest that the monetary policy package announced on May 7 is not the peak of easing, with continued policies expected in Q3 and Q4, indicating ongoing benefits for small-cap stocks [1]

Core Insights - The small-cap stocks continue to lead the market, with the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) experiencing a 722% increase in scale and approximately 32% returns year-to-date, making it a dual champion among broad-based ETFs [1][3] - The CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF has shown over 73% returns in the past year, with its scale and net value reaching historical highs throughout the year, demonstrating consistent and stable enhancement capabilities [3][5] Performance Comparison - Since the beginning of 2025, the CSI 300 index has risen by less than 1%, while the CSI 2000 has increased by 15%, highlighting a significant performance gap [5] - Historical data indicates that during market uptrends, small-cap stocks tend to outperform larger-cap stocks, with small-cap stocks having a median elasticity coefficient of 1.73 compared to 0.92 for large-cap stocks from 2010 to 2024 [5] Market Drivers - The strong performance of small-cap stocks this year is attributed to favorable market conditions, including significant rallies in February and April, and the recent performance of sectors like military and innovative pharmaceuticals [5] - Continuous liquidity easing signals from the central bank have lowered market funding costs, making small-cap stocks more sensitive to liquidity changes, which has been a crucial factor in their rise [5] Future Outlook - The future performance of the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF will depend on two key indicators: the progress of mergers and acquisitions among small-cap companies and the earnings growth and recovery of small-cap indices in the upcoming semi-annual reports [6] - If these indicators are favorable, it could accelerate the small-cap stock market, potentially providing significant upside for the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF [6]