After a long period of underperformance, small-cap U.S. stocks may be staging a comeback. While it's too early to say for sure whether this is the start of a sustained rally or just an occasional rise, recent data shows encouraging signs for small-cap investors.Small-cap exchange-traded fund iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) has gained 6.3% over the past month (as of Sept. 3, 2025) versus about 2% gains in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) . However, IWM still lags SPY when the year-to-date performance is considere ...

Group 1: Market Trends - Large cap stocks have significantly outperformed small caps in recent years, which is an unusual trend, leading to attractive 7.2% dividends from closed-end funds [2][3] - Since the pandemic, small caps have lagged behind the S&P 500, but signs indicate a potential shift as investors may start looking for alternatives to large cap tech stocks [3][5] - The concentration of the S&P 500 is notable, with the top 10 firms accounting for 25% of earnings and 40% of market cap, indicating that Big Tech has become increasingly expensive relative to the rest of the market [4] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - If small caps begin to gain investor attention, it could lead to years of outperformance compared to large caps, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) potentially starting to outperform S&P 500 index funds [5][6] - The Royce Small-Cap Trust (RVT) is highlighted as a small-cap focused closed-end fund that offers a significantly higher yield of 7.2%, outperforming the IWM [7][8] - RVT has shown a near-10% net asset value (NAV) return, surpassing the small-cap index's 6.6%, indicating it is generating "alpha" [9][10] Group 3: Fund Performance - RVT's total market price return is up 5.8%, suggesting that its shares are not being bid up in line with its fundamentals, leading to a widening discount to NAV [10][11] - The fund's strategy of paying out a large portion of its profits as dividends makes it an attractive investment in the volatile small-cap sector, providing a steady income stream [12] - A potential strategy involves pairing RVT with another closed-end fund to optimize income and capital gains, reducing exposure to market volatility [13]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are encouraged to look beyond traditional benchmarks like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 to identify real investment opportunities in the current market landscape [1][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has seen a significant concentration of its weight in a few technology stocks, particularly NVIDIA, which now holds the largest position in the fund [4][5]. - Over the past 12 months, SPY has outperformed the iShares Russell 2000 ETF by more than 10%, attributed to the ability of large tech companies to navigate high interest rates and inflation [6]. - The gap between SPY and the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) has widened to 17.5%, a level not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, indicating potential for a convergence [9][10]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Historical trends suggest that the current 17.5% gap between SPY and RSP is likely to close, either through RSP outperforming or SPY pulling back [11]. - If RSP catches up to SPY, investors could see a potential gain of approximately 17.5%, while RSP is positioned to perform better in a downturn due to its diversified holdings [12]. - RSP offers a more balanced view of the U.S. economy, with no single stock exceeding 0.24% of the portfolio, contrasting with SPY's heavy tilt towards technology [13][14].

Economic Overview - The economy added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, with prior months' job gains revised down by a total of 258,000, leading to an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2% [2] - Manufacturing activity has contracted, with factory hiring at its lowest since 2020, and consumer confidence has weakened, raising concerns about a potential economic slowdown or recession [2] - Analysts have increased the odds of interest rate cuts in September due to the combination of weak economic data [2] Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - The CME's FedWatch tool indicates an 87.4% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, driven by weak data and declining consumer activity [1] - President Trump's nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board is expected to reinforce dovish market expectations, potentially leading to earlier rate cuts [3] - JPMorgan has adjusted its forecast to expect the first rate cut in September, projecting a total of four cuts through early 2026 [3] Impact of Lower Interest Rates - Lower interest rates are anticipated to reduce borrowing costs, aiding business expansion and increasing profitability, which in turn stimulates economic growth and supports the stock market [4] - High dividend-yield sectors, particularly utilities and real estate, are expected to benefit significantly from rate cuts due to their sensitivity to interest rates [5] - Lower rates are likely to enhance consumer discretionary spending and encourage lending in the financial services sector, despite potential compression of net interest margins for banks [6] Sector-Specific Opportunities - Small-cap companies are expected to outperform in a lower-rate environment due to higher levels of debt, and rate cuts may boost foreign capital inflows into emerging markets like India [7] - Gold is projected to gain attractiveness as lower interest rates increase its appeal [7] Highlighted ETFs - **Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ)**: Targets the real estate segment with an AUM of $33.5 billion, holding 155 stocks, and charges 13 bps in fees [9] - **Utilities Select Sector SPDR (XLU)**: AUM of $21.2 billion, focusing on utility companies, with 31 stocks and 8 bps in annual fees [10][11] - **Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY)**: AUM of $22.3 billion, covering the consumer discretionary space with 51 securities and 8 bps in fees [12] - **iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)**: Largest small-cap ETF with an AUM of $60.4 billion, holding 1,979 stocks and charging 19 bps in fees [13] - **SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)**: Tracks gold prices with an AUM of $104 billion and charges 40 bps in fees [14]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes are nearing all-time highs, prompting investors to consider whether bullish outlooks are already reflected in market valuations. While there are reasons for potential price increases, it is also essential to explore hedging strategies for current portfolios [1]. Group 1: Reasons for Bullish Outlook - Three key factors are expected to influence investor behavior towards the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust in the coming months [2]. - The Commitment of Traders report indicates that commercials, such as banks, hold long positions at a concentration not seen this year, while speculators are at their shortest positions, suggesting a potential for upward movement in the S&P 500 [4][5]. - A significant short dollar position may lead to a "short squeeze," which could further drive the dollar's value up, positively impacting consumer and business spending, and consequently, the stock market [6][7]. - The performance of growth stocks over value stocks indicates a high risk appetite among investors, suggesting confidence in continued economic growth and higher valuations [8][9]. Group 2: Alternative Investment Strategies - The iShares Russell 2000 ETF, focusing on small-cap stocks, has underperformed the S&P 500 by 15% over the past year, presenting potential opportunities for investors if the market shifts [10]. - Small-cap stocks may offer downside protection due to their current discount relative to larger indexes, making them a safer bet in uncertain market conditions [11][12]. - The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF could provide an additional layer of protection and upside potential, especially if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates before the end of 2025 [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts are betting on a significant rebound opportunity for small-cap stocks, despite a poor start in 2025, with historical data suggesting a 60% chance of small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks in June [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Russell 2000 index has declined approximately 5.9% year-to-date, underperforming the S&P 500's 1.5% gain, and small-cap stocks have not reached new highs since 2021 [1] - The sentiment around small-cap stocks is currently pessimistic, with call option volumes in the Russell 2000 ETF nearing their lowest since February [2] - Short positions in small-cap stocks have been increasing, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF seeing its highest short amount since 2022 [2] Group 2: Potential Catalysts for Rebound - A substantial agreement between the U.S. and its trade partners, along with strong economic data, could serve as catalysts for a rebound in small-cap stocks [2] - The Russell 2000 index has shown a slight outperformance against the S&P 500 by 0.5 percentage points in the first three trading days of June [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Russell 2000 index is currently at a critical turning point around 2100 points, with a potential rise to 2500 points (a 19% increase) if it breaks through this level [3]

Core Viewpoint - The small-cap stocks in the U.S. are entering a historically strong performance period, raising hopes for a rebound after a poor showing in early 2025 [1] Group 1: Small-Cap Stock Performance - Small-cap stocks have outperformed large-cap stocks 60% of the time in June since 1990, particularly when large-cap stocks are performing well [1] - The Russell 2000 index, a benchmark for small-cap stocks, has not reached new highs since 2021 and is down 5.9% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 index has experienced volatility but is up 1.5% year-to-date, close to its historical high from February [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - Despite some rebound in high-risk stocks, traders remain negative on small-cap stocks, with the ratio of call options to put options for the Russell 2000 index at its lowest since February [3] - Short positions on the iShares Russell 2000 ETF have reached their highest level since 2022, indicating significant bearish sentiment among investors [3] Group 3: Potential for Upside - Accumulation of bearish positions could create conditions for a price increase if positive news prompts investors to unwind their bets against small-cap stocks [4] - There are signs of constructive agreements between the U.S. and its trade partners, along with strong economic data, which may enhance the attractiveness of small-cap stocks [4] - The Russell 2000 index has shown positive performance in June, outperforming the S&P 500 by over 0.5 percentage points in the first three trading days [4] - Technical analysts see a potential breakout point for the Russell 2000 index around 2100, with a possible increase of 19% to 2500 points by mid-August [4]