随着美联储主席鲍威尔上周五在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的鸽派演讲，引发了全球金融市场的积极反 响，眼下人们对美联储9月降息的预期无疑正空前高涨。 而若仔细算算日子，如果美联储真的在9月降息，那么距离其2024年12月的上次降息，其实将正好过去 九个月——这已经是一段不算短的政策空窗期了。那么，在历史上，当美联储暂停许久后重启降息，美 股通常会怎么走呢？ Carson Group首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick上周末在X平台发布的一张图，就对此做了一番行情数据汇 总： 如上图所示，自从1970年以来，美联储总共经历过11次在降息周期中暂停——"等待5至12个月"后再次 降息的案例。 在这些案例中，重启降息后1个月和3个月的美股表现，其实并不算优秀——标普500指数平均分别录得 了0.9%和1.3%的跌幅。 不过，如果把周期拉长到1年，则美股依然足以轻松取得不俗表现。Detrick在帖子中指出，在过去11次 美联储在重启降息前等待5至12个月的案例里，标普500指数在随后的1年中10次出现了上涨，平均涨幅 达到了12.9%。 尽管历次行情波动的具体原因不尽相同，但Detrick认为投资者心理可能是影响因素之一 ...

随着美联储主席鲍威尔上周五在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的鸽派演讲，引发了全球金融市场的积极反 响，眼下人们对美联储9月降息的预期无疑正空前高涨。 而若仔细算算日子，如果美联储真的在9月降息，那么距离其2024年12月的上次降息，其实将正好过去 九个月——这已经是一段不算短的政策空窗期了。那么，在历史上，当美联储暂停许久后重启降息，美 股通常会怎么走呢？ Carson Group首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick上周末在X平台发布的一张图，就对此做了一番行情数据汇 总： | | | | | S&P 500 Index Returns | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Date of Next Cut | Months Between Cuts | Next Month | Next 3 Months | Next 6 Months | Next Year | | 9/21/1970 | 54 | 2.1% | 10.1% | 22.8% | 21.7% | | 6261/61/9 | 5.9 | 0.0% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 14.2% | | ...

随着美联储主席鲍威尔上周五在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的鸽派演讲，引发了全球金融市场的积极反响，眼下人们对美联储9月降息的预 期无疑正空前高涨。 而若仔细算算日子，如果美联储真的在9月降息，那么距离其2024年12月的上次降息，其实将正好过去九个月——这已经是一段不算短的 政策空窗期了。那么， 在历史上，当美联储暂停许久后重启降息，美股通常会怎么走呢？ Carson Group首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick上周末在X平台发布的一张图，就对此做了一番行情数据汇总： | | | | | S&P 500 Index Returns | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Date of Next Cut | Months Between Cuts | Next Month | Next 3 Months | Next 6 Months | Next Year | | 9/21/1970 | 5.4 | 2.1% | 10.1% | 22.8% | 21.7% | | 6261/61/9 | 5.9 | 0.0% | 63% | 7.6% | 14.2% | | ...

加拿大将根据美国墨西哥加拿大贸易协议（USMCA）对许多美国商品实施关税豁免。美元兑加元跌超 0.5%，报1.3838。加拿大股指维持大约1%的涨幅，持稳于美联储主席鲍威尔讲话后出现的盘中历史最 高位28340.87点附近。加拿大10年期国债收益率回升，几乎完全收复鲍威尔鸽派讲话之后（瞬间）出现 的失地。两年期加债收益率维持超过4个基点的跌幅，交投于2.69%一线，鲍威尔讲话后一度跌穿 2.67%。在美联储降息预期的带动下，道指上涨840点，涨幅扩大至1.87%，标普涨1.55%，纳指涨400点 涨幅1.9%，半导体指数涨3.5%，银行指数涨2.68%；罗素2000指数。 ...

《华尔街日报》著名记者、素有"美联储传声筒"、"新美联储通讯社"之称的Nick Timiraos报道称，美联储主席鲍威尔周五为最早于下月会议降息打开了大 门，他表示就业市场可能出现更剧烈放缓的前景，或能减轻对关税引发成本上涨推高通胀的担忧。 今年以来，鲍威尔及其同事一直维持利率不变，理由是劳动力市场稳健，且大幅加征关税导致的通胀前景存在不确定性。但在周五怀俄明州一场备受瞩目的 会议演讲中，鲍威尔暗示经济前景正朝支持重启降息的方向转变。 "风险平衡似乎正在发生变化，"鲍威尔在准备好的讲稿中表示。尽管劳动力市场看似稳定，但"这种平衡颇具特殊性——它源于劳动力供需两端的显著放 缓"。 此前，美国总统特朗普及其高级顾问对美联储施加了异常强烈的压力，要求其大幅降息。 不过，鲍威尔的言论通过强调对通胀的担忧，缓和了市场对美联储将连续激进降息的预期。通胀已连续四年多高于美联储2%的目标。 鲍威尔表示，关税对消费价格的影响"现已清晰可见"，且预计未来几个月将持续累积。美联储面临的问题是，这些价格上涨是否会"显著增加持续性通胀风 险"。 此外，鲍威尔首次对"关税导致商品价格上涨的影响相对短暂"这一基准预测表现出更大信心。他警告 ...

Group 1 - Hedge funds are increasing short positions on small-cap stocks, with short positions on the Russell 2000 index reaching $16 billion in July, the highest level since 2021 [1] - There is a growing gap between short positions on small-cap stocks and bullish futures on the Nasdaq 100 index, indicating market concerns about the U.S. economic outlook [1][2] - Small-cap companies are more sensitive to economic fluctuations due to weaker balance sheets and lower borrowing capacity compared to S&P 500 companies [1] Group 2 - The Russell 2000 index has risen 26% since its low in April, but some investors warn that this surge may signal overheating risk sentiment [2] - Concerns about economic growth and expectations for prolonged high interest rates are particularly detrimental to small-cap companies, which rely more on external capital [2][4] - If economic growth remains robust or moderate inflation supports the Federal Reserve in lowering interest rates, shorting small-cap stocks may face challenges [4] Group 3 - There is caution regarding excessive shorting of small-cap stocks due to the potential for a short squeeze, where price reversals force short sellers to buy back shares [5] - Despite the resilience of the economy and the potential for higher long-term yields, maintaining an optimistic outlook on small-cap stocks is challenging [5]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a decline on July 15, with the Russell 2000 index falling by 1.96%, indicating a bearish sentiment in small-cap stocks [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Russell 2000 index decreased by 1.96% [1] - The US Real Estate ETF dropped by 1.47% [1] - Agricultural funds and the Dow Jones ETF both fell by 1% [1] - Long positions in the Japanese Yen and the 20+ Year US Treasury ETF declined by at least 0.7% [1] - Long positions in the Euro, the Fear Index, soybean funds, and Brent crude oil price funds saw declines of up to 0.59% [1] - The Gold ETF decreased by 0.42% [1] - Conversely, the Nasdaq 100 ETF rose by 0.09% [1] - Long positions in the US Dollar Index increased by 0.55% [1] - Emerging Market ETFs gained 0.72% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market shows signs of overheating, indicating that the recent rally in high-risk small-cap stocks may soon lose momentum as investor sentiment shifts from panic to near-euphoria [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has surged to a historical high over the past month, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks [1][2] - Bloomberg Intelligence's investor sentiment indicator shifted from panic in April to near-euphoria in June, suggesting that when this indicator reaches euphoric levels, small-cap stocks tend to underperform large-cap stocks [1] - Historical data from 2012 to 2023 shows that when the sentiment indicator reaches euphoric levels, the S&P 500 outperformed the Russell 2000 index by 178 basis points over the following three months [1] Group 2: Small-Cap Stocks Dynamics - Small-cap stocks are generally viewed as cyclical stocks that perform well in the early stages of market uptrends but are sold off during downturns [4] - The recent example of small-cap performance occurred after President Trump's second term began, where the sentiment indicator reached extreme levels, leading to a 7.8% decline in the S&P 500 and a 14% drop in the Russell 2000 over the next three months [4] - Despite the recent resilience in both large-cap and small-cap stocks, there are concerns about the sustainability of small-cap strength [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Strategy - Small-cap stocks are considered important leading indicators, typically declining first during economic turmoil and recovering first after a downturn [5] - The Russell 2000 index recently broke through its long-term trading range, suggesting potential for further gains [5] - Analysts recommend maintaining long positions in small-cap stocks due to stable economic growth forecasts and a favorable financial environment [5] Group 4: Large-Cap Stocks Outlook - As key deadlines for tariff negotiations approach, some strategists advise focusing on larger companies with stronger balance sheets and profitability [6] - Barclays strategist Venu Krishna believes that despite potential double-digit earnings growth for small-cap stocks due to tax reforms, the fundamentals do not support a shift from large-cap to small-cap stocks [6] - Large-cap companies are expected to benefit more from macro growth drivers like artificial intelligence, with improving earnings expectations and stronger profit margins [6]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the steel and commodity industry [5] Core Insights - The report discusses how a civilian prediction indicator has become an "invisible driver" of asset prices, particularly in the steel and commodity sectors. It highlights the strong correlation between the "U.S. recession expectation" and various asset markets, including commodities, bonds, stocks, and foreign exchange [10][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating this prediction indicator with traditional economic data and policy interest rate curves for more comprehensive asset allocation [6][10] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The steel industry has shown a performance of -1.9% over the last month, -8.7% over the last three months, and 7.6% over the last year, compared to the CSI 300 index which has seen -0.4%, -3.3%, and 9.4% respectively [4] Asset Linkage Commodity Market - The report notes a significant rise in silver prices and a strong synchronization between the gold-silver ratio and the "U.S. recession expectation." It suggests that when recession probabilities decrease, silver, which has more industrial properties, tends to outperform gold [12] - The report also mentions that the crude oil VIX has shown a close correlation with the "U.S. recession expectation," indicating that market predictions of oil price volatility are influenced by recession expectations [12] Bond Market - The report indicates that when the "U.S. recession expectation" rises, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield tends to weaken, although recent trends show some divergence. The 10-2 year yield spread has shown a complex relationship with recession probabilities [15] Stock Market - The report highlights a strong negative correlation between the "U.S. recession expectation" and the S&P 500 index, suggesting that rising recession expectations directly impact corporate profit outlooks [21] - It also notes that the Russell 2000 to S&P 500 ratio has not returned to early-year highs despite a temporary decline in recession expectations, reflecting ongoing concerns about long-term corporate profitability due to tariff policies [21] Foreign Exchange Market - The report states that the U.S. dollar index has mostly moved inversely to the "U.S. recession expectation," although a gap has emerged since May, potentially linked to U.S. fiscal risks and trade policy uncertainties [22] - The report also mentions that the USD/JPY exchange rate tends to weaken when recession expectations rise, indicating a flight to the Japanese yen as a safe-haven asset [22]

Core Viewpoint - The small-cap stocks in the U.S. are entering a historically strong performance period, raising hopes for a rebound after a poor showing in early 2025 [1] Group 1: Small-Cap Stock Performance - Small-cap stocks have outperformed large-cap stocks 60% of the time in June since 1990, particularly when large-cap stocks are performing well [1] - The Russell 2000 index, a benchmark for small-cap stocks, has not reached new highs since 2021 and is down 5.9% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 index has experienced volatility but is up 1.5% year-to-date, close to its historical high from February [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - Despite some rebound in high-risk stocks, traders remain negative on small-cap stocks, with the ratio of call options to put options for the Russell 2000 index at its lowest since February [3] - Short positions on the iShares Russell 2000 ETF have reached their highest level since 2022, indicating significant bearish sentiment among investors [3] Group 3: Potential for Upside - Accumulation of bearish positions could create conditions for a price increase if positive news prompts investors to unwind their bets against small-cap stocks [4] - There are signs of constructive agreements between the U.S. and its trade partners, along with strong economic data, which may enhance the attractiveness of small-cap stocks [4] - The Russell 2000 index has shown positive performance in June, outperforming the S&P 500 by over 0.5 percentage points in the first three trading days [4] - Technical analysts see a potential breakout point for the Russell 2000 index around 2100, with a possible increase of 19% to 2500 points by mid-August [4]