摩根⼤通交易部⻔2026年初开始采取战术性看涨⽴ 场：原因及四⼤⾸选交易 BY TYLER DURDEN TUESDAY, JAN 06,2026-04:05 AM 2025年全年，⼤多数其他银⾏策略师都失去了理智，反复⽆常（之后⼜变卦），从看涨转为看跌， 然后⼜再次看涨——⽽且总是事后诸葛亮，他们只是对事件做出反应，⽽⾮预测未来，这让客⼾损 失了⼤量超额收益。⽽有⼀个交易部⻔的市场判断再次出⼈意料地准确，那就是摩根⼤通的市场情 报团队。该团队连续第三年坚定看涨且判断正确，仅在"解放⽇"崩盘前准确看跌过⼀次，随后在市 场触底时再次转为看涨。 这就是为什么我们看到摩根⼤通市场情报团队（由安德鲁·泰勒领导）在其2025年的⾸份报告中宣 布，尽管该团队同时列出了看涨和看跌的理由，但他们再次转为战术性看涨时，并不感到惊讶。 以下内容节选⾃必读的完整笔记，专业订阅⽤⼾可在常规位置查看。 标普500指数以16.4%的涨幅结束2025年，实现连续第三年两位数年度涨幅。纳斯达克综合指数上 涨20.2%，罗素2000指数上涨11.3%，然⽽，随着市场反弹从美国科技股向更⼴泛领域蔓延，加上 美元贬值对美国以外市场的⽜市形成⽀撑， ...

在新一年全面展开之际，美股的强劲表现为投资者带来更多信心，也带来新的难题。 标普500指数 刚刚录得连续第三年双位数涨幅，虽然这让 2026年的市场环境更具挑战性，从历史经验来看，本轮牛市并不一定已经走到尽头。 数据显示，自2022年10月阶段性低点以来，截至2025年10月，标普500指数在约36个半月内累计上涨98%。周一，Oppenheimer首 席技术策略师Ari Wald指出，历史数据显示，自1932年以来，美国股市中曾有8次牛市至少持续了三年之久。 不过，历史在这一阶段的指引并不明确。统计显示，在牛市进入第39至第51个月后，五次情形下指数平均上涨约22%，但另有三次平均 下跌约7%，结果更像"掷硬币"。 像2022年至2025年这样连续多年大幅上涨的行情尤为罕见。Wald指出，自1942年以来，在经历连续三年双位数上涨后，标普500指数 在五次情形中有三次继续录得强劲正回报(1945年、1952年、1998年)；但若试图冲击连续第四年双位数涨幅，历史回报明显下降，仅 在1999年成功一次。他总结称："上涨仍有可能，但选股能力与风险管理变得尤为重要。" 在此背景下，Wald本人仍保持乐观，给予标普 ...

全球资本市场的目光正聚焦于本周即将召开的美联储议息会议，与此同时，美股小盘股指数近期已率先 创下历史新高。罗素2000指数在12月4日收盘时的表现打破了10月27日的前高纪录，显示出市场资金流 向正在发生微妙变化。在这一背景下，部分华尔街机构开始重新审视明年的投资主线，认为市场风格或 将迎来切换。 作者：观察君 盈利增速与估值缺口的双重驱动 支撑小盘股走强的核心逻辑在于基本面的改善以及相对估值的吸引力。丰业银行策略师雨果·斯特-玛丽 发布的研究报告显示，标普600指数成分公司"第三季度利润有望增长14%"，这一增速预计将超过标普 500指数近12%的增长水平。 除了盈利预期的好转，估值差异也为资金轮动提供了空间。经过长时间的调整，小盘股相对于大盘股的 估值折价已达到历史极值。丰业银行策略师将这种估值差距描述为"过去40年来'最陡峭'的水平"。 Acuitas Investments首席投资官克里斯·特辛则认为，对于寻求2026年超额回报的投资者而言，"小盘股可 能蓄势待发"。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 非主流板块的潜力重估 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street's top investment banks are establishing a new "bull-bear divide" as market sentiment becomes increasingly cautious [1] Group 1: Market Trends and Technical Levels - Goldman Sachs identifies 6725 points as a critical technical inflection point for the S&P 500 index; a breach could signal the end of a positive market trend that has persisted since February [2] - JPMorgan warns that the S&P 500 index faces key support levels at 6700, 6631, and 6525 points; breaking these levels could confirm a downward trend, potentially lasting until early 2026 [3][9] - The report highlights that the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 indices have also breached short-term momentum thresholds, indicating a potential for significant selling pressure from algorithm-driven commodity trading advisors (CTAs) [7] Group 2: Upcoming Market Events - The market is preparing for significant events, including Nvidia's earnings report, which could lead to a market capitalization fluctuation of up to $300 billion, and the first U.S. government employment report in two and a half months [4] Group 3: Defensive Rotation and Sector Performance - There is a notable shift of funds from growth sectors to defensive sectors, with the VIX index rising above 23 for the fourth time since April, indicating increased market anxiety [11] - In the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sectors, short selling has outpaced long buying, while defensive sectors like healthcare and consumer staples have seen stronger demand [11] - Despite the defensive shift, overall stock exposure has not significantly decreased, suggesting persistent market volatility [11] Group 4: Momentum Factor and Market Risks - A sharp decline in the momentum factor has been observed, with Goldman Sachs' momentum index experiencing one of its worst trading periods in a decade, raising concerns about potential instability [13] - The report indicates that despite the poor performance of the momentum factor, investor exposure remains high, which could lead to larger-scale deleveraging and asset repricing if selling continues [13]

Group 1 - The small-cap stock bubble is raising alarms as they have outperformed large-cap stocks in Q3 2025, driven by a rally in technology stocks [1][2] - The Russell 2000 index has seen a gain of over 10% as of September 29, 2025, surpassing the S&P 500's approximately 7% increase [2][4] - Small-cap stocks have historically performed best during periods of Federal Reserve easing and economic recovery, but their recent performance contrasts sharply with earlier in the year [4] Group 2 - The technology sector, particularly semiconductors, has led the recent surge in small-cap stocks, with notable performers like Astera and Credo seeing gains of over 100% and 60% respectively in Q3 [5][10] - Despite the strong performance, concerns arise as the rebound is driven by a limited number of growth and tech stocks, leading to questions about overall value [11] - The forward P/E ratio for the iShares Russell 2000 ETF has reached 24.64, indicating that small-cap stocks may no longer offer the value they once did [11][12] Group 3 - The iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF has an alarming forward P/E ratio of 36.38, suggesting a bubble similar to large-cap tech stocks [12] - Some small-cap stocks, like Oklo, have seen significant price increases without generating any revenue, raising further concerns about valuation sustainability [12] - Defensive sectors such as consumer staples and healthcare are recommended for small-cap investments, as cyclical sectors may struggle without substantial interest rate cuts [14]

Market Overview - Global financial markets exhibit complex and divergent trends, with the US market continuing to reach new highs driven by strong performance in technology and small-cap stocks [1] - The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 indices show notable gains, while the Dow Jones index experiences a slight increase, supported by robust corporate earnings and positive developments in the AI sector [1][3] - In contrast, European markets show weakness, with the UK FTSE 100 index slightly up, while the German DAX and French CAC 40 indices both decline, reflecting concerns over economic growth and policy uncertainty in the region [1][3] Commodity Performance - Gold prices have significantly risen, indicating strong demand, while WTI crude oil prices are under pressure due to expectations of increased supply [1][4] - The reopening of a major pipeline in Iraq has heightened supply concerns, contributing to a decline in oil prices [4] Key Indices and Movements - The S&P 500 index increased by 0.44% to 6,693.75, while the Dow Jones rose by 0.14% to 46,381.54 [4] - The Nasdaq 100 index saw a rise of 0.55% to 22,788.98, and the Russell 2000 index increased by 0.60% to 2,463.34 [4] - European indices such as the DAX and CAC 40 experienced declines of 0.48% and 0.30%, respectively, indicating a bearish sentiment in the region [4] Investor Sentiment - Overall, investors maintain a defensive stance with limited risk appetite, as evidenced by the mixed performance across global markets [3] - The focus for upcoming trading days will be on signals from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy and key inflation data [3]

Core Insights - Small-cap stocks have finally joined the record rise of U.S. equities, ending a period of underperformance since the pandemic began [1] - The Russell 2000 index rose by 2.1% to 2453.36 points, marking its first close above the historical high since November 2021 [1] - This surge in small-cap stocks aligns with heightened risk appetite and market expectations of three potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Russell 2000 index, which includes some of the riskiest stocks in the market, has seen a significant surge recently, with multiple Wall Street strategists believing that this rally is just beginning [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Russell 2000 index has risen nearly 10% since the end of July, outpacing the S&P 500 index by two times [1] - Analysts predict that the Russell 2000 index could rise another 20% over the next year, while the S&P 500 index is expected to increase by 11% [1] - Despite the recent surge, the Russell 2000 index's cumulative gain in 2025 still lags behind that of the S&P 500 index [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to significantly lower the financing costs for companies within the Russell 2000 index, thereby enhancing their profit margins [1] - The recent inflation and employment data have reinforced optimistic sentiments, leading investors to believe that the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate cuts soon [2] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson noted that the Fed's rate cuts could propel the bull market into its "next phase," benefiting small-cap stocks [5] - Over 60% of companies in the Russell 2000 index exceeded earnings expectations for Q2 2024, with average revenue surpassing expectations by 130 basis points [5] - Analysts from Manulife John Hancock Investments highlighted that small-cap stocks have been undervalued compared to other stock categories [5] Group 4: Valuation and Investor Sentiment - The Russell 2000 index's price-to-earnings ratio is slightly above its long-term average, but still presents a lower valuation pressure compared to large-cap stocks [6] - The options market indicates increasing investor confidence in the continued rise of small-cap stocks, with a more bullish positioning compared to the S&P 500 index [6] - Passive funds have started to flow into U.S. small-cap stocks, although there is a caution that signs of economic recovery are needed for sustained growth [6] Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - Barclays analysts recommend prioritizing investments in technology and small-cap stocks due to their strong earnings momentum, suggesting that small-cap stocks are facing significant opportunities [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the anticipation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, following a dovish speech by Chairman Powell, which has led to increased optimism in the financial markets [1][2][3] - Historical data shows that after the Federal Reserve pauses for 5 to 12 months before resuming rate cuts, the S&P 500 index has typically performed well over the following year, with an average increase of 12.9% [2][1] - The current market sentiment indicates a strong expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with an 85% probability according to traders, and an 83.9% chance of at least two rate cuts this year [3][2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that if the Federal Reserve does cut rates in September, the stock market may see a shift from large-cap tech stocks to broader market gains, as lower rates typically encourage investors to seek higher returns [5][6] - Small-cap stocks are expected to benefit from a rate cut due to their sensitivity to borrowing costs, as evidenced by the Russell 2000 index rising 3.9%, outperforming the S&P 500's 1.5% increase [6][5] - The focus of discussions among analysts is shifting towards the potential magnitude of the rate cut and future meetings, with a consensus that a 50 basis point cut could be on the table [5][3]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September has significantly increased following Chairman Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference, leading to positive reactions in global financial markets [1][2]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - Current market expectations indicate an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, up from 75% a week prior. Additionally, there is an 83.9% probability that the Fed will implement at least two rate cuts this year [3]. Historical Performance of the S&P 500 - Historical data shows that after the Fed pauses for 5 to 12 months and then resumes rate cuts, the S&P 500 index has averaged a 12.9% increase over the following year, with 10 out of 11 instances resulting in gains [2][1]. Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - Investor sentiment has shifted from questioning whether the Fed will cut rates to focusing on the frequency and pace of potential cuts. This change in focus is attributed to Powell's indication that a rate cut may be reasonable due to concerns about the labor market [2][5]. Impact on Stock Market Sectors - Analysts predict that if the Fed cuts rates in September, the stock market rally may extend beyond large-cap tech stocks, as lower rates typically encourage investors to seek higher returns along the risk curve. Small-cap stocks, which are more sensitive to borrowing costs, may particularly benefit from this environment [6][5].