多晶硅市场供需平衡
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安泰科:多晶硅市场延续供需双弱格局 短期内或维持弱势平稳运行
智通财经网· 2025-11-26 10:31
Core Viewpoint - The polysilicon market continues to exhibit a weak supply and demand dynamic, with expectations of maintaining a stable but weak operational trend in the short term [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The transaction price range for n-type recycled polysilicon is between 49,000 to 55,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 53,200 CNY/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period [1]. - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 50,000 to 51,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 50,500 CNY/ton, also unchanged from the previous period [1]. - The number of mainstream signing enterprises remains at 4-5, with a decrease in signing volume for rod silicon, while granular silicon shows resilience due to its improved quality recognition and cost-effectiveness [1]. Market Stability Factors - The stability in market prices is supported by both supply and demand sides. On the supply side, polysilicon companies are determined to maintain price stability, with two leading companies implementing significant production cuts this month [1]. - There is a clear consensus across the industry chain that price instability could harm the entire chain, contributing to price stability [2]. - Despite production cuts in the silicon wafer segment, downstream companies maintain their procurement plans, particularly for granular silicon, providing a bottom support for prices [1][2]. Price Statistics - The highest and lowest prices for n-type recycled polysilicon are 55,000 CNY/ton and 49,000 CNY/ton, respectively, with no price fluctuation [3]. - The average price for n-type dense material is 49,700 CNY/ton, with no fluctuation reported [3]. - The average price for p-type polysilicon is not specified, indicating no transactions occurred this week [3]. Participating Companies - The price statistics are based on data from nine polysilicon production companies, which account for 89.3% of the domestic total production in Q3 2025 [4].
[安泰科]多晶硅周评-供需双弱格局延续 价格持稳共识坚定(2025年11月26日)
中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会· 2025-11-26 10:17
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the polysilicon market is experiencing a weak supply and demand situation, with stable pricing despite reduced purchasing needs from downstream silicon wafer producers [1][2]. - The average transaction price for n-type polysilicon is reported at 53,200 yuan/ton, with a price range of 49,000 to 55,000 yuan/ton, showing no change from the previous week [1][3]. - The transaction price for n-type granular silicon is reported at 50,500 yuan/ton, with a range of 50,000 to 51,000 yuan/ton, also remaining stable week-on-week [1][3]. Group 2 - The supply side is characterized by a significant reduction in production from leading companies, which has led to a contraction in supply, thereby supporting price stability [2][1]. - Despite the reduction in production from the silicon wafer segment, downstream companies maintain their purchasing plans, particularly for granular silicon, which provides a bottom support for prices [1][2]. - The consensus within the industry is that price instability could harm the entire supply chain, leading to a collective effort to maintain stable pricing [2][1].
安泰科:当前多晶硅市场需求较弱、稳价意愿较强 短期内或维持弱势平稳运行格局
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-11-19 08:03
Core Viewpoint - The domestic polysilicon market is currently exhibiting a weak and stable trend, with prices remaining steady despite a decline in downstream prices and production cuts by some silicon wafer companies due to weak demand [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is between 49,000 to 55,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan per ton, remaining flat week-on-week [1]. - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 50,000 to 51,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan per ton, also remaining flat week-on-week [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side has contracted significantly, with expectations that domestic polysilicon production will drop to below 120,000 tons in November, representing a month-on-month decrease of approximately 14% [1][2]. - Despite recent production cuts in downstream sectors, the overall tolerance for supply-demand changes among upstream and downstream companies remains high due to already high social inventory levels [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The strong willingness to maintain prices among polysilicon companies is a significant factor, as price declines could disrupt the stabilization expectations that have been gradually established since July [1][2]. - It is anticipated that polysilicon prices will continue to maintain a weak and stable operational pattern in the short term, supported by supply contraction and a consensus on maintaining overall stability in the industry chain [2].
[安泰科]多晶硅周评-下游压力传导有限 价格持稳基调未改(2025年11月12日)
中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会· 2025-11-19 07:32
Core Viewpoint - The domestic polysilicon market is currently exhibiting a weak and stable trend, with prices remaining steady despite a decline in downstream prices and production cuts by some silicon wafer manufacturers due to weak demand [1][2]. Group 1: Market Prices - The transaction price range for n-type re-investment material is between 49,000 to 55,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 53,200 CNY/ton, remaining unchanged week-on-week [1]. - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 50,000 to 51,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 50,500 CNY/ton, also stable week-on-week [1]. - The overall transaction prices for polysilicon products have shown no fluctuations, indicating a stable market environment [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite a reduction in downstream production, which is expected to weaken short-term demand for polysilicon, supply has also tightened, leading to a higher tolerance for supply-demand changes among upstream and downstream enterprises [2]. - The expected polysilicon production for December is around 120,000 tons, with an annual total production of approximately 1.33 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 27.8% [2]. - The supply contraction is anticipated to support the maintenance of price stability in the polysilicon market, with a strong willingness among producers to keep prices steady [2]. Group 3: Industry Consensus - There is a consensus among the industry chain participants that a price drop in polysilicon would not effectively stimulate demand but could disrupt the stabilization expectations that have been gradually established since July [1]. - The willingness of polysilicon companies to maintain price stability is strong, as they aim to prevent a potential collapse of the entire pricing system within the industry [1].
安泰科:本周多晶硅市场情绪波动 弱稳格局延续
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-12 07:37
Core Viewpoint - The domestic polysilicon market is maintaining a weak and stable pattern, with prices remaining steady despite fluctuations caused by declining prices in downstream silicon wafers and battery cells [1][2] Group 1: Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is between 49,000 to 55,000 CNY per ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 CNY per ton, showing no change from the previous week [1] - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 50,000 to 51,000 CNY per ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 CNY per ton, also remaining stable week-on-week [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The overall market condition remains characterized by an oversupply, with high inventory pressure persisting [2] - Although price reductions and production cuts in downstream sectors may weaken short-term demand for polysilicon, companies are not in a hurry to lower prices to clear inventory due to already high social inventory levels [2] - Despite the prevailing pessimistic sentiment in the market, actual operations are expected to remain stable, with low likelihood of significant price fluctuations due to ongoing production cuts and policy support from suppliers [2]
[安泰科]多晶硅周评-市场情绪波动 弱稳格局延续(2025年11月12日)
中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会· 2025-11-12 07:02
Core Viewpoint - The domestic polysilicon market is maintaining a weak and stable pattern, with prices remaining steady despite fluctuations caused by declining prices in downstream sectors [1][2]. Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type re-investment material is between 49,000 to 55,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan per ton, showing no change week-on-week [1]. - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 50,000 to 51,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 50,500 yuan per ton, also stable compared to the previous week [1]. - The price data for various polysilicon products indicates no fluctuations, with n-type re-investment material and n-type granular silicon both showing a 0% change [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall state of supply exceeding demand in the polysilicon market remains unchanged, with high inventory pressure persisting [2]. - Downstream price reductions and production cuts may weaken short-term demand for polysilicon, but companies are not in a hurry to lower prices to clear inventory due to high social inventory levels [2]. - Despite pessimistic market sentiment, actual operations are expected to remain stable, with low likelihood of significant price fluctuations due to ongoing production cuts and policy support from suppliers [2].
硅业分会:本周多晶硅整体成交均价小幅上涨 成本对价格形成支撑
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-13 10:16
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the price of polysilicon is experiencing a slight upward trend, with the average price of n-type re-investment material at 47,400 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.42% [1][2] - The transaction volume of polysilicon has slightly decreased week-on-week, but the number of signing companies has increased to six, with some companies maintaining prices while others raised prices by 1 RMB/kg [1] - The main reason for the price increase is attributed to the significant signing volume from leading companies since July, leading to a noticeable reduction in inventory levels [1][2] Group 2 - The number of polysilicon producers remains at nine, with an expected domestic production of 125,000 tons in August and a potential increase to around 140,000 tons in September [1] - The market is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with polysilicon inventory expected to increase by over 50,000 tons, prompting some companies to consider coordinated production cuts to alleviate pressure [1] - The current market pricing is primarily supported by costs, with the prevailing signing model being dual distribution or high-cost performance procurement, indicating that prices are nearing a temporary peak [2]
【安泰科】多晶硅周评—在产企业数量减少 价格小幅下跌(2025年5月14日)
中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会· 2025-05-14 09:40
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the polysilicon market is experiencing a slight price decline due to high inventory levels and rapid price drops in downstream products [1][2] - The transaction price range for n-type re-investment materials is between 360,000 to 410,000 CNY per ton, with an average transaction price of 386,000 CNY per ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 1.53% [1] - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 350,000 to 370,000 CNY per ton, with an average price remaining stable at 360,000 CNY per ton [1] - The transaction price range for p-type polysilicon is between 300,000 to 350,000 CNY per ton, with an average price of 313,000 CNY per ton, showing a month-on-month decrease of 3.10% [1] - The current monthly supply and demand balance is precarious, and if downstream operations continue to decline, there may be a risk of inventory accumulation in the polysilicon sector [1] - Downstream companies are cautious in signing large orders due to previous price declines, opting for high-frequency, small-batch purchases which may stabilize polysilicon prices [1] Group 2 - As of this week, two companies have entered maintenance shutdowns, reducing the number of operating companies to 11 [2] - The production of polysilicon in China is reported to be 99,100 tons as of April 2025, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 6.08% [2] - The market is experiencing frequent shifts in expectations due to a surge in polysilicon news, with actual outcomes dependent on company announcements [2]