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老铺黄金 - H_ 实地调研显示销售势头强劲,置于正面催化剂观察;“增持”评级. Thu Feb 06 2025
-· 2025-02-10 08:58
中国 证券研究 2025 年 2 月 6 日 老铺黄金 - H 实地调研显示销售势头强劲,置于正面催化剂观察; "增持"评级 ▲ 我们看好老铺在整体消费存在不确定性情况下的增长能见度,春 节节前和节中对上海(老铺豫园精品店)进行的实地渠道调研, 令我们信心增强。我们的主要观察结果包括:1) 销售势头火热( 每小时 10-20 笔订单),客流量强劲(尽管约一分钟发一个号, 排队时长达 80-100 分钟),即使几乎没有折扣;2) 优质的零售体 验:为排队等候的顾客提供热水(其他品牌提供常温水)、暖宝 宝、高端品牌巧克力和饼干;3) 进一步向目标客户群渗透:70- 75%为新客户,消费能力稳健(穿着中高端国际品牌;携带奢侈 品牌手袋),追求时尚(搭配流行 IP 配饰)。我们预计老铺将继 续保持这一势头,驱动力包括公司的品牌价值建设、产品创新、 国潮流行趋势下的强大价值主张,以及金价上涨(本年迄今上涨 8%)。我们将 2025-26 年盈利预测上调 12-14%。我们调整后的截 至 2025 年 12 月的目标价为 469 港元,对应 30 倍的 12 个月动态市 盈率。重申"增持"评级。我们将老铺置于正面催化剂观 ...
老铺黄金20250207
2025-02-08 12:50
本次电话会议仅服务于华创证券研究所客户不构成投资建议相关人员应自主作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险 华盛顿券不应使用本次内容所导致的任何损失承担任何责任专家发言内容仅代表专家个人观点不代表本公司观点本次会议内容不得涉及国家保密信息内幕信息未公开重大信息商业秘密个人隐私不得涉及可能引发不当炒作或股价异常波动的敏感信息不得涉及影响社会或资本市场稳定的言论 未经华创证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人不得以任何形式复制、刊载、转载、转发、引用本次会议内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担本公司保留追究其法律责任的权利市场有风险投资需谨慎 各位投资人大家下午好我是华商商圣的杨岚那我们最近呢是刚外发了老铺黄金的一个深度报告今天呢就借着进门证平台跟大家详细的介绍一下公司那我们的报告呢其实最主要是回答了市场上最关心的三个问题第一个为什么优于传统的黄金珠宝品牌第二如何去衡量公司的一个成长空间那么第三呢就是怎么去考量它的这个估值空间那么先简单说结论第一为什么是优于传统的珠宝品牌的从吸血性来上说呢公司卡位了黄金珠宝的一个高端赛道 品级别的一个能力去做了品牌运营那么产品的一个极强意向其实是契合了当下的情绪消费的对比国内品牌 ...
协鑫科技20250207
2025-02-08 12:38
更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 协鑫科技在 2024 年第四季度实现了显著的成本下降,请问背后的主要降本方 式是什么?对 2025 年的成本展望如何? 协鑫科技 摘要 • 协鑫科技通过技术改造和工程优化,显著降低了多晶硅生产成本,尤其是 在颗粒硅方面,通过技术红利弥补规模劣势,预计 2025 年中期成本将进一 步降低,但具体数据待公告。 • 受行业协同和成本约束影响,公司 2025 年一季度开工率处于低位,部分基 地最低开工,预计二季度回升,全年出货量仍保持增长。行业自 2024 年 12 月进入去库存周期,但硅料库存仍处历史高位。 • 为应对 P 型转 N 型的市场变化,公司自五月起进行技术改造,固化技术和 规模化红利,四季度初步完成,使工艺工程进入成熟阶段。流化床技术持 续进步,工程性红利优化空间大。 • 行业头部企业通过协同自律和政策讨论,推动能耗指标的先进性,促成 12 月和 2025 年一季度的行业协同,加速去库存。相关政策有望出台,约束产 能和有序生产。 • 公司现金成本超预期,归功于工程红利充分展现。未来将精雕细琢技术、 工艺、管理和材料,推动 3,800 颗粒硅技术变 ...
美的集团20240208
2025-02-08 12:38
美的集团 20240208 | | | shuinu9870 | shuinu9870 | shuinu9870 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V: | 手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V: | 手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V: | | | 更多一 | | 更多一 | 更多一 | | | | 更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 | | | | | | | 美的集团 20240208 | | | | | | shuinu9870 | shuinu9870 | shuinu9870 | | | 摘要 • 美的集团预计 2024 | 年商用暖通收入达 250 亿元人民币,中国制造占比超 | | | | | 手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V: 70%,海外工厂比例将提升至 | 手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V: 30%-40%。应对关税增加,美的将提升海外生 | 手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V: | | | | | 产比例,通过效率提升和价格调节降低对客户的影响。 | | | | 更多一 | • 2024 | 年美的海 ...
固生堂20250114
2025-01-16 07:25
Key Points Industry or Company - **Industry**: Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) - **Company**: Not specified, but mentioned in context of insurance and TCM product design Core Views and Arguments - **TCM Consultation Limitations**: TCM consultations are not easily quantifiable, as they often involve identifying subtle signs of health issues like Qi and blood deficiencies [1]. - **Product Design**: Premium TCM products typically have usage limits, such as a certain number of consultations or treatments per year [1]. - **Combining TCM with Insurance**: The idea of combining TCM consultations with insurance, similar to membership cards, is proposed [2]. - **Non-traditional Insurance Approaches**: Current collaborations between insurance companies and TCM providers often involve non-typical methods, such as providing customers with coupons or cards [2]. Other Important Content - **Insurance Product Design**: The discussion hints at the potential for insurance companies to design more comprehensive TCM-related insurance products [2]. - **Meeting Conclusion**: The call concludes with a summary of the discussion and an invitation for further questions or discussions with the respective teams [3].
零跑汽车20250115
汽车之家· 2025-01-16 07:25
汇报一下省领导汽车的一个业绩有亏今天的话也是我们从今天就是早上八点开始的话对持续的更新就是一些重要的行业的这种信息就是 林涛的话在前天发布了24年的这个地图纽会的预告整体的话是比之前的这个指引前一年公司之前的指引的话是在今年的四季主台拍摄纽会就这个事件是应该说是从另一端是非常超预期的就是林涛其实我们在去年的4月份开始跟大家提示那个时候可能大概300万人毕业但是我觉得 公司其实在去年4月份是一个从基本面来看的话是一个拐点其实4月份的话去年的这个量来看的话就是从这个销量基本上从2万直接到最近5万的这样一个持续的财生的过程我就从领导的这个案例去看的话就是也反复的证明我们跟大家就是提示一点就是本车的核心是量 从头其实整个投资是比较有特点的这整个预期的波动是非常大的而且整个估值方式上上下下估值区间和估值方式的这个也是非常大的但是核心的话是订单或者爆款的这种趋势 这个股价股价会这么演绎但它其实背后的本质就是因为大家觉得起量之后其实劳力率和盈利的改善是一个非常正常观的这样一个因素那么在我们对二五年的这样子的产业趋势做了一个分析其实我们也有一个很重要的结论就是五个产业趋势里面大家可以参考我们的年度策略五个产业趋势里面最重要有 ...
361度20250114
36氪研究院· 2025-01-15 07:32
Key Points Industry and Company * **Company**: 361° * **Industry**: Sports apparel and footwear Core Views and Arguments * **Expansion Plans**: 361° is focusing on expanding in Southeast Asia, particularly in countries like the Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand. They have opened a large, 300-square-meter flagship store in Malaysia to test the market and assess its impact. The company will continue to expand through a combination of direct sales and dealer partnerships [1]. * **Online Channel Growth**: The company's online channel is experiencing strong growth. The discount rate for the fourth quarter was maintained between 4.5 and 5.5, similar to previous trends. New product sales accounted for approximately 76% to 78% of total sales [2]. * **Brand Category Matrix**: 361° will continue to focus on running as the core category, leveraging the increasing number of runners and their diverse needs. They will enhance product competitiveness through core technology advantages and increase brand exposure through sponsorships of large events like the Asian Winter Games [3]. * **Domestic Channel Expansion**: The company plans to continue opening large stores and upgrading store images. They have introduced the 10th generation store image, which has significantly improved brand image and sales performance. They also plan to open more super stores to meet consumers' one-stop shopping needs [4]. * **Future Growth Expectations**: The company is optimistic about future growth despite intense competition. They have launched new product lines that have performed well in the market. Basketball will continue to be a key area for young consumer engagement. They plan to sponsor NBA stars to visit China in 2025 to enhance brand influence and sales [5]. * **E-commerce Performance**: The company's e-commerce channel performed well in the fourth quarter, particularly during the Double 11 shopping festival. They launched many hot-selling products and achieved good results. They plan to continue promoting new products during the Spring Festival [6]. * **E-commerce Profitability**: The e-commerce channel has a higher gross margin than the average level due to the direct sales model. However, the net profit margin is relatively low due to the need to amortize a large amount of fixed costs. The company expects the profit margin to gradually improve as the e-commerce business volume increases [7]. * **Children's Wear Business**: The children's wear business performed well in 2024, ranking second in the children's sports brand market. The company plans to continue investing in brand endorsement and product innovation in 2025. They also plan to strengthen store layout in first-tier and second-tier cities and large shopping centers [8]. * **Competition in Low- and Medium-Tier Cities**: The company's competitiveness in low- and medium-tier cities is reflected in several aspects. They have a large number of stores in first-tier and second-tier cities, accounting for about 25% of the total. The remaining 70% of stores are distributed in third-tier and lower cities. They encourage the opening of large stores, especially in shopping centers and trade centers, to better adapt to consumers' changing consumption habits [9]. * **Outdoor Products**: Outdoor products currently account for about 3% of the company's overall revenue and are growing well. They sponsored the 9th Asian Winter Games, which brought more exposure opportunities for outdoor products. They plan to continue to strengthen new product launches, such as waterproof and moisture-proof functional products, to meet consumer needs and promote the growth of the outdoor product line [10]. * **Running Shoes**: The company's running shoes, especially the knitted shoe series, performed well in 2024. The sales volume of top-end running shoes like Lifeng and Feiran reached about 500,000 pairs in the first half of the year. The sales volume of Feiran 33.5, a carbon plate racing shoe, reached 300,000 pairs in the fourth quarter, far exceeding expectations [12]. * **Price Strategy**: From the perspective of footwear, 70% of the products are priced between 350 and 500 yuan. The products priced above 500 yuan and below 350 yuan account for 15% each. According to the order data of the first three quarters of 2025, the average selling price (ASP) of the company has basically remained stable, and some categories may remain flat or have a slight unit increase. The company has done a lot of work in price control, setting the price within the comfort range of consumers, and will continue to maintain the quality-price advantage in 2025 [13]. * **Urban and Rural Market Strategy**: The company's urban and rural market strategy is mainly carried out by first-tier distributors and their authorized retailers. They have a 25% market share in first-tier and second-tier cities. Due to the company's price positioning and product positioning, which rely more on the mass market, there is still a lot of room for growth in third-tier and lower cities. These areas have a significant increase in demand for basic sports equipment such as running and basketball. The company hopes to seize the demand of consumers who have not yet formed fitness habits for equipment [14]. * **Cash Utilization**: The company has a substantial cash balance and is considering dividend payments or share buybacks to maximize shareholder returns. They plan to announce specific plans in the future [15]. * **Store Innovation**: The company has introduced many innovative store types in the past year. The efficiency of different store types is as follows: the 10th generation store has significantly improved brand image and sales performance. The 8th generation store has been upgraded to the 10th generation. Children's wear stores have also been upgraded to the 5th generation. The new stores are also the 5th generation. From the perspective of business format, they are mainly concentrated in landmark locations and shopping centers, rather than incremental business formats such as outlet stores. The terminal sales discount is between 7 and 7.3, and the sales turnover growth is good, but the price growth is low, and the profit margin is 8% to 12% on average, compared with the original 15% to 25% of the commission [16]. * **Industry Competition Outlook**: The company expects the market competition in 2025 to remain intense, with significant competition pressure in both offline channels and product categories and prices. However, they are optimistic about the future. The order meetings for the first three quarters of 2025 have ended, and the results are good. They will continue to increase investment in e-commerce business, and currently 80% of online sales come from new products. They will also strengthen the development of independent operation teams to maintain growth momentum. In the children's wear category, they will also continue to improve, and the 5th generation children's wear store image and new layout in shopping centers will further promote the development of this field [18]. * **Cash Utilization Plan**: The company plans to maintain a dividend payment guidance of not less than 40% and hopes to steadily increase the dividend yield. Currently, the dividend yield is about 8%, which is at a high level in the industry. For cash utilization, the company is very cautious and conservative and will carefully study various options, including increasing the dividend payment ratio, DTC model, and acquisitions. They may consider these options at the right time, but the focus is still on doing a good job with existing products and brand operations [19]. * **Overall Valuation and Growth Logic**: The company's current valuation is relatively low, but the dividend yield is about 8%, which is very attractive. From an investment perspective, the company's future growth logic is clear and supported by data, including new market online sales, new product ratio, independent operation team development of e-commerce business, and continuous improvement of sports children's wear. These factors have provided a solid foundation for the company's future development [20]. Other Important Content * **Overall Operating Data**: The overall operating data for the fourth quarter of 2024 was good. The main brand's growth rate was about 10%, and the children's wear growth rate was 10% to 12%. The online growth rate was 30% to 35%, which met the company's expectations [24]. * **Order Meeting**: The order meetings for the spring, summer, and autumn quarters of 2025 have ended, and the results were good, mainly reflected in the increase in order volume and a slight increase in price. The company is optimistic about the market outlook for 2025 [32]. * **Social Responsibility**: The company quickly responded to the 6.8 magnitude earthquake in Shigatse, Tibet on January 7, 2024, and donated 8 million yuan of warm materials to help the affected people. This reflects the company's concern for the affected people and its sense of social responsibility [31].
龙蟠科技20250112
2025-01-15 07:05
本次电话会议服务于中泰证券正式签约客户 未经中泰证券授权请勿对外传播本次会议的内容包括但不限于视频音频文字记录内容等信息感谢您的理解与配合中泰证券对违反上述要求的行为保留追究法律责任的权利市场有风险投资需谨慎本会议信息仅供参考不代表任何投资建议本公司不对任何人因使用本会议中的信息所引致的任何损失不担任何责任 也是经过了很多的一个查评验证所有的这个商务环节的其实都是我们和福特直接接包括最后的这个合同接触都是我们和福特直接您应该在其中呢主要是以做这个查评验证为主 这个整体的一个加工费的情况呢其实相对于这个国内可能好很多啊甚至比我们之前和LG算算价格也要好很多啊所以说明了这个大家之前在给海外零钻铁里的产品的稀缺性上其实还是 国际不足的啊对这个海外的一个一大能力其实还是过于保守的啊其实福特的这个单独的这个境地啊他们单独的一个加工费的一个水平呢其实还是超过大家的一个这个想象的啊所以后来后续呢也会给呃楼盘科技啊在这个海外的利润上啊其实会带来很大的一个提升啊呃对这个就是一个基本情况啊大家作为什么问题也不必发自心的进行讨论 谢谢王总我先请教一下咱们应该说你们这个直接客户是福特对吧然后那个就是明德是在其中起到一个验证作用但是最 ...
老铺黄金20250112
2025-01-15 07:05
Key Points Industry and Company * **Industry**: Jewelry, specifically high-end Chinese gold jewelry * **Company**: Lao Pu Gold, a leading brand in the high-end Chinese gold jewelry market Core Views and Arguments * **Lao Pu Gold's Growth**: The company's high growth rate is attributed to its strong brand, product, and channel capabilities, positioning it as the sole supplier meeting the needs of the high-end consumer group. * **Beta and Alpha**: The high-end gold jewelry industry has a beta component due to market trends, while Lao Pu Gold has a strong alpha due to its unique value proposition. * **Competitive Advantage**: Lao Pu Gold's competitive advantage lies in its product design, brand positioning, and exclusive channel strategy, making it difficult for competitors to imitate. * **Market Potential**: The high-end Chinese gold jewelry market has significant growth potential, driven by factors such as cultural trends, consumer preferences, and the rise of domestic brands. * **Brand Positioning**: Lao Pu Gold aims to become a globally competitive Chinese gold jewelry brand, combining traditional craftsmanship with modern aesthetics. Other Important Points * **Product Portfolio**: Lao Pu Gold offers a diverse product range, including daily accessories, jewelry, and decorative items, with a focus on Chinese cultural elements and craftsmanship. * **Channel Strategy**: The company follows a selective channel strategy, focusing on high-end shopping malls and luxury brands, ensuring a high-quality customer base. * **Brand Building**: Lao Pu Gold has successfully established a strong brand image through targeted marketing and collaborations with key opinion leaders. * **Financial Performance**: The company has achieved strong financial performance, with high gross margins and significant growth in sales. * **Future Outlook**: Lao Pu Gold is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by factors such as market expansion, product innovation, and brand building. References * [doc id='2'] * [doc id='3'] * [doc id='4'] * [doc id='6'] * [doc id='8'] * [doc id='9'] * [doc id='11'] * [doc id='12'] * [doc id='13'] * [doc id='14'] * [doc id='15'] * [doc id='16'] * [doc id='17'] * [doc id='18'] * [doc id='19'] * [doc id='20'] * [doc id='21'] * [doc id='22'] * [doc id='23'] * [doc id='24'] * [doc id='25'] * [doc id='26'] * [doc id='27'] * [doc id='28'] * [doc id='29'] * [doc id='30'] * [doc id='31'] * [doc id='32'] * [doc id='33'] * [doc id='34'] * [doc id='35'] * [doc id='36'] * [doc id='37'] * [doc id='38'] * [doc id='39'] * [doc id='40'] * [doc id='41'] * [doc id='42'] * [doc id='43'] * [doc id='44'] * [doc id='45'] * [doc id='46'] * [doc id='47'] * [doc id='48']
优必选20250112
2025-01-15 07:03
Key Points Industry and Company 1. **Industry Focus**: The discussion centers around the humanoid robot industry, specifically focusing on the market outlook and production plans of Tesla's humanoid robots. 2. **Company in Focus**: The analysis primarily revolves around Ubiquity Robotics, a key player in the humanoid robot market. Core Views and Arguments 1. **Tesla's Market Outlook**: Tesla's CEO, Elon Musk, has expressed optimism about the humanoid robot market, predicting a 10x increase in annual shipments. This suggests progress in internal validation and solution design for Tesla's humanoid robots. 2. **Investment Opportunities**: 2025 is expected to be a pivotal year for the initial mass production and validation of humanoid robots, presenting significant investment opportunities. 3. **Investment Focus**: Key areas of investment include core component manufacturers (e.g., screws, sensors, motors, and reducers), body manufacturers, and integrated application solution providers. 4. **Ubiquity Robotics' Progress**: Ubiquity Robotics' humanoid robots have been tested at BYD's factory and are expected to receive small batch orders in the first half of 2025. The company aims to expand into the automotive, logistics, and 3C sectors. 5. **Cost Reduction**: The cost of Ubiquity Robotics' humanoid robots is primarily concentrated in the joints, with the potential for significant cost reductions through economies of scale. 6. **Application Scenarios**: Currently focused on material handling, Ubiquity Robotics plans to expand into more refined operations such as end-of-line sorting and air conditioning safety inspections. 7. **Education and Moulding Machine Businesses**: The education and moulding machine businesses are performing well, offering significant revenue elasticity for the company. Other Important Content 1. **Hardware Companies to Watch**: Priority is given to core component manufacturing companies and those involved in body manufacturing, integrated application solutions, and collaboration with first-tier companies. 2. **Ubiquity Robotics' Recent Developments**: The company has released the No-Core S and is undergoing testing at BYD's factory. A small batch order of 30 to 50 units is expected in the first half of 2025. 3. **Cost Reduction Strategies**: The cost of Ubiquity Robotics' humanoid robots is primarily concentrated in the joints, with the potential for significant cost reductions through economies of scale. 4. **Application Scenarios**: Currently focused on material handling, Ubiquity Robotics plans to expand into more refined operations such as end-of-line sorting and air conditioning safety inspections. 5. **Education and Moulding Machine Businesses**: The education and moulding machine businesses are performing well, offering significant revenue elasticity for the company. 6. **Financial Status and Future Prospects**: The company is currently in a loss-making state but is expected to shorten the loss period as revenue scales up. The PS valuation method is suitable for the company.