We summarize our key takeaways below. Focus on Ads, Games, margin and AI impact Advertising Advertising achieved a solid +24% yoy growth in 4Q24 primarily propelled by strong performance ads (+40% yoy) together with healthy native ads and brand ads (both at double-digit% yoy). Management anticipates advertising revenue to grow at +20% yoy for 1Q25, and are generally optimistic about ad momentum in FY25, in particular: n Management demonstrated confidence on delivering solid performance ad growth, largely at ...

February 28, 2025 09:36 AM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific Tariffs Prolong Deflation Potential for the US to add another 10% tariff on China on March 4, a narrow pathway to US-China tariff de-escalation, and a modest March NPC fiscal package would likely see deflationary pressures persist. We expect a below-consensus, sub-4% nominal GDP growth from 2Q onwards. Tariff risks are back in focus: US President Trump yesterday said the US would impose another 10% broad tariff on China by March 4 on fentanyl iss ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the **China Banking Sector** and its outlook for 2025, particularly regarding dividend yields and asset allocation trends in equities [8][14]. Core Insights 1. **Dividend Yield Trends**: - The dividend yield of the CSI 300 is projected to be **3.1%**, outperforming the **10Y CGB yield** (~1.7%), **3Y bank deposit rate** (1.5%), and **WMP yield** (1.8%). This gap is expected to widen in 2025 [8]. - MSCI China banks and CSI 300 banks are expected to offer **6.2%** and **5.3%** dividend yields respectively in FY25E, indicating a strong dividend spread against the 10Y CGB [8]. 2. **Asset Allocation Shifts**: - A shift of **5 percentage points** in household assets from deposits to equities could lead to an inflow of approximately **Rmb10 trillion**, representing about **13%** of the A-share tradable market [8]. - The banking sector is anticipated to benefit from increased Southbound ownership in H-share banks, providing support to share prices [8]. 3. **Earnings Outlook**: - Stable bank earnings are expected in 2025, with a projected **30bps** cut in LPR leading to a **9bps** contraction in NIM, which is an improvement from **-16bps** in 2024 [8]. - Factors such as improving fee growth, stable loan growth, and asset quality are expected to contribute positively to earnings [8]. 4. **Risk Assessment**: - Stress tests indicate that even if US-export related loans see an NPL ratio of **20%**, the negative impact on earnings would be around **4%** [8]. - The average NPL coverage for China banks is approximately **230%**, which provides a buffer against potential earnings downturns [8]. 5. **Top Picks**: - **CMB** is highlighted as the sector top pick, with a **5.6%** dividend yield in A-shares and **5.5%** in H-shares. It is expected to show revenue and profit recovery in 2025 [8]. - Among the Big 4 banks, **CCB** and **ICBC** are preferred due to their compelling valuations and strong capital positions [8]. Additional Insights - **Regulatory Environment**: - The "China Value-Up" initiatives introduced by the government aim to enhance investor returns and market stability, which could further support the banking sector [26]. - New measures encourage long-term funds to invest in the capital market, particularly in yield stocks, which are expected to benefit disproportionately from rising asset allocations into equities [37][42]. - **Market Dynamics**: - The current asset allocation in households shows a low equity allocation of **7%**, indicating significant room for growth as more funds are directed towards equities [28]. - The anticipated increase in mutual funds' holdings in A-shares by at least **10% annually** over the next three years could lead to substantial inflows into the market [42]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - Valuation summaries for H-share and A-share banks indicate varying P/E and P/B ratios, with CMB-H showing a P/B of **0.98** and a P/E of **7.3x** for FY25E [9][12]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the outlook for the China banking sector, dividend trends, asset allocation shifts, earnings expectations, and regulatory impacts.

1 March 2025 | 6:05PM HKT China Battery and Components Strong March shipments seen (+15% mom); strengthens our cyclical recovery view. Buy CATL (on CL), Yuneng March battery shipments seen beating expectations. According to ICCSino, March 2025 will likely be a surprisingly strong month for China battery shipments, with a mom increase of +15% (Exhibit 1, vs. consensus of single digit). Given Jan-Feb are usually low seasons for battery shipments as a result of Chinese new year holidays, we view the potential ...

February 28, 2025 10:11 AM GMT M Update China Autos & Shared Mobility | Asia Pacific Likely a very "Humanoid" earnings season In the past quarter, 40% of the auto stocks we cover mentioned increasing involvement in humanoid business. As we head towards peak earnings, investors may focus increasingly on the remaining 60% of companies, who, although they have said nothing about humanoids, may soon do so. In addition to the preview note we published on major EV players, here are some quick thoughts about more ...

February 28, 2025 05:25 AM GMT Alternative Asset Mgrs | North America Investor Feedback On Latest Pullback Shares of alts asset mgrs are down -11% over the past 30-days on the back of disappointing 4Q earnings results, slower capital markets activity YTD and macro concerns. We share investor feedback & concerns around capital markets rebound, macro/ interest rates risks, and most & least preferred names. Key Takeaways: | M | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Update | | February 28, 2025 05:25 AM GMT | | | | Alt ...

28 February 2025 | 1:53AM PST Anna Wu +1(415)249-7235 | anna.wu@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alex Lakritz +1(415)249-7072 | alex.lakritz@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC | | Mortgage | Credit | Personal | Auto | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Card | Loan | | | Total outstanding ($ in bn) | $12,436 | $1,142 | $148 | $1,675 | | % y/y change | 3.1% | 4.7% | 0.1% | 2.8% | | % m/m change | 1.1% | (0.1%) | 0.0% | 0.4% | | Monthly originations ($ in bn) | $126 | $40 | $10 | $63 | | % y/y change | 29.2% | (6 ...

28 February 2025 | 4:42PM CST Appotronics Corporation Ltd. (688007.SS): Data update post 2024 prelim results Appotronics reported 2024 prelim results, in-line with its previous announcement. Total revenue was Rmb2,418mn in 2024, growing by 9% yoy. Net profits was Rmb29mn, declining by 72% yoy, slightly lower than the mid-point of Rmb25mn-35mn in previous announcement. We fine-tune 2025E-26E earnings forecasts by -4% to factor in the latest prelim results. Our 12-month target price remains Rmb11, which is ba ...

28 Feb 2025 12:33:25 ET │ 24 pages Agency MBS Weekly Almost March Madness CITI'S TAKE Mortgages have held up relatively well in the recent risk-off. Rates could revisit December lows, but delta hedging needs have picked up recently and could continue to be supportive. We stay overweight. Agency Floaters Attractive to AAA CLOs — AAA CLOs have recently tightened to 117bp, close to historic tights. At the same time, discount margins on new issue agency CMO floaters are still sitting close to their historic wid ...

4Q beat with Brukinsa surpassing Calquence, FY25 guided revenue US$4.9-5.3bn: 4Q product sales of US$1.1bn (+77% y/y, +13% q/q, vs. GSe's US$1bn) were higher, mainly driven by strong Brukinsa sales in ex-China markets: 1) US sales rebounded (US$616mn, +22% q/q, vs. GSe US$552mn or VA Consensus Data US$536mn) after a slower 3Q, which was partially bolstered by US$30mn of early channel buy-in ahead of new year, 2) EU and rest-of-world (US$143mn, +20% q/q, vs. GSe US$136mn) continue to see strong ramp-up acros ...