交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (1.19-1.23) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 回顾与要闻 上周，原油震荡运行，尾盘走高。纽约交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶61.28美元，周涨3.48%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶 65.44美元，周涨1.93%；中国原油期货SC主力合约收至449.8元/桶，周涨2.51%。周内前期，伊朗通过镇压平息了抗议活动，此前特朗普推迟军 事行动的发言也降低了美国军事打击这一主要产油国并扰乱其供应的风险，投资者对美伊局势持观望态度导致油价承压。除地缘局势外，供应 方面，哈萨克斯坦最大油田因电力故障停产，供应减少支撑油价，而对委内瑞拉原油封锁仍在继续，美方已 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [4]. Core Insights - Three major institutions have raised their oil supply forecasts, with the EIA predicting a global surplus of 2.83 million barrels per day for this year [6][16]. - The EIA has adjusted its 2026 oil price forecast upward to an average of $56 per barrel, while lowering the natural gas price forecast to $3.46 per million British thermal units [7][11]. - The IEA expects a demand increase of 930,000 barrels per day in 2026, while OPEC and EIA have slightly reduced their demand forecasts [11][16]. Supply and Demand Summary - The EIA has raised its global oil supply forecast for this year by 120,000 barrels per day, while the IEA has increased its forecast by 100,000 barrels per day [13][16]. - The EIA anticipates that global oil production will rise by 1.37 million barrels per day in 2026, with OPEC+ contributing approximately 1.13 million barrels per day [15][16]. - The IEA projects a global oil supply increase of 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, reaching 108.7 million barrels per day [16]. Price Trends Summary - The price of butadiene has surged over 28% since the beginning of the year, driven by a narrowing price spread between naphtha and ethylene [17]. - As of January 23, the spot price of butadiene reached 10,700 yuan per ton [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, due to tightening supply and improving market conditions [21]. - It suggests monitoring major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong, as refining margins are expected to improve [21]. - The report also highlights the potential of offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering, given the high capital expenditure in offshore exploration [21].

Core Viewpoint - OPEC's January report predicts a balanced oil supply and demand by 2026, contrasting with other institutions forecasting a significant surplus in oil supply by that year [1] Group 1: Oil Demand and Supply Forecasts - Global oil demand is expected to increase by 1.34 million barrels per day in 2027, remaining roughly stable compared to the 1.38 million barrels per day forecast for 2026 [1] - The market demand for OPEC+ crude oil in 2026 is projected at 43 million barrels per day, consistent with previous forecasts and close to actual data from December 2025 [1] - If OPEC+ maintains its production levels from December 2025, the production in 2026 will fall short of demand by 170,000 barrels per day [1] Group 2: Comparison with Other Institutions - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a surplus of 3.84 million barrels per day in oil supply for 2026, which is about 4% of global demand, contrasting sharply with OPEC's demand growth forecast of 860,000 barrels per day [1] - IEA's latest report does not include a forecast for 2027, but it is expected to release updated data on January 21 [1]

交易者消化美国出台的多项加强对委内瑞拉管控的措施（包括一项无限期管理未来原油销售的计划）， 油价延续跌势。 西德克萨斯中质原油在前两个交易日下跌3%后，现交投于每桶56美元附近。美国能源部长克里斯・赖 特表示，美方将率先开始投放储备原油，美国能源部亦称，相关原油的销售工作已启动。 委内瑞拉国家石油公司表示，正与美方谈判，拟通过一套类似与雪佛龙公司合作的框架出售原油。雪佛 龙是目前唯一一家在委开展业务的美国大型石油企业。 知情人士透露，根据该计划，美国将对委内瑞拉国家石油公司拥有一定控制权。美国总统唐纳德・特朗 普向《纽约时报》表示，美国对委内瑞拉的监管可能持续数年，并称"石油相关事宜尚需时日推进"。 特朗普周二表示，委内瑞拉将向美国移交至多5000万桶原油，价值超20亿美元，并宣布这批原油将对外 出售，所得收益由两国共享。知情人士透露，原油销售的收入将存入美国财政部账户。 盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen表示："有一点至关重要，那就是委内瑞拉的石油产量不会突然 激增。全球石油供需净平衡不会在短期内发生变化，但这一情况会对具体的买卖双方产生影响。" 开局疲软 全球基准原油期货在经历2020年以来最大 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices declined as the market weighs the expectations of global supply abundance this year against the uncertainty of Venezuela's oil production following the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude futures fell by $1.06, a decrease of 1.72%, closing at $60.70 per barrel [2]. - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for February delivery dropped by $1.19, a decline of 2.04%, settling at $57.13 per barrel [2]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, stated that it is too early to assess the impact of Maduro's arrest on oil supply-demand balance, but it is clear that oil supply will be ample by 2026 regardless of whether the OPEC member increases production [2]. - A Reuters survey conducted in December indicated that market participants expect downward pressure on oil prices in 2026 due to increased supply and weak demand [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector [5] Core Views - Oil prices are expected to remain near marginal costs due to a combination of supply-demand balance and the gradual decline of geopolitical risk premiums. The Brent crude oil price is projected to average $68 and $62 per barrel for 2025 and 2026, respectively [1][4] - The report recommends energy companies with the ability to increase production and reduce costs, as well as those with growth in natural gas business, specifically China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [1][4] Demand Side Summary - The global oil demand increment for 2025 and 2026 has been revised upwards to 830,000 and 860,000 barrels per day, respectively, driven by improvements in macroeconomic conditions and trade outlooks, alongside a decline in oil prices and a weaker dollar [2][19] - The Northern Hemisphere is entering a demand lull, with major regions' refined oil products entering a replenishment phase [2][19] Supply Side Summary - Global oil production has seen a decline, with November's output down by 610,000 barrels per day compared to September's peak, primarily due to sanctions on Russia and disruptions in Venezuela's supply [3][44] - The IEA has adjusted its forecast for global oil supply increments for 2025 and 2026 to 3 million and 2.4 million barrels per day, respectively [3][44] Recommendations - The report highlights the potential investment opportunities in high-dividend energy leaders that can increase production and reduce costs, recommending CNPC and CNOOC [4][78] - The target prices for recommended stocks are set at 27.04 HKD for CNOOC, 33.41 CNY for CNOOC, 9.19 HKD for CNPC, and 11.00 CNY for CNPC [7][79]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 EIA认为由于石油产量的增加以及冬季需求加速下滑，全球石油库存将持续增长至2026年，预测2026年 全球石油库存增幅将超过每天200万桶，对未来几个月的油价产生下行压力。2026年一季度布伦特原油 价格将降至平均55美元/桶，并在明年剩余时间维持在这一价格中枢附近。但需要警惕欧佩克的产量政 策以及中国的战略储备增加将会限制价格进一步的跌幅。供需平衡方面，EIA 12月报预测，2026年全球 石油供应量日均1.0743亿桶，需求日均1.0517亿桶，日均过剩量达226万桶，较2025年增加2万桶/日。一 季度过剩压力最大，二、三季度开始缓解，整体节奏符合淡旺季特性。需求端几乎完全由非经合组织国 家推动，尤其是中国和印度，并基于对中国明年上调的GDP增速而环比上月上调对中国石油的需求预 测。供应端除了欧佩克，美国、巴西、圭亚那和加拿大共同推动了产量的增长，这四个国家合计贡献了 2025年全球石油增量的50%以上，并预计2026年贡献约60%。 OPEC维持2026年GDP增速和今年相同的预测，同时认为石油需求仍有韧性。德国、日本、印度、美国 和中国在内的 ...

一、日度新闻 ·以总理访美前伊朗军方最新表态：密切关注相关事态发展金十数据12月21日讯，当地时间12月21日，针对以色列总理 内塔尼亚胡即将访美以及以色列对伊朗的威胁，伊朗武装部队副总参谋长萨达尔·瓦希迪在接受媒体采访时表示，以色 列政权正面临巨大问题，这一点已非常明显。以色列在对伊朗的战争中并未实现任何目标，伊朗正在密切关注相关事态 发展。萨达尔·瓦希迪称，以色列试图通过媒体，对伊朗发动"心理战"来掩盖其弱点，从而营造一种截然不同的现实图 景，以色列试图通过一系列威胁举措来掩盖其在今年的12日战争中遭受的惨败。他表示，以色列的言论和宣传不会给其 带来任何好处。"如今，以色列政权孤立无援，只是徒劳地试图自救。" ·以总理访美前伊朗军方最新表态：密切关注相关事态发展金十数据12月21日讯，当地时间12月21日，针对以色列总理 内塔尼亚胡即将访美以及以色列对伊朗的威胁，伊朗武装部队副总参谋长萨达尔·瓦希迪在接受媒体采访时表示，以色 列政权正面临巨大问题，这一点已非常明显。以色列在对伊朗的战争中并未实现任何目标，伊朗正在密切关注相关事态 发展。萨达尔·瓦希迪称，以色列试图通过媒体，对伊朗发动"心理战"来掩盖其弱点 ...

Group 1 - French President Macron warns that imposing tariffs on Chinese goods by the EU could lead to serious trade disputes and suggests improving internal competitiveness and investing in technology instead [2][7] - Hainan's full closure operation officially starts, creating a "domestic outside" zone with zero tariffs, which is expected to stabilize prices and attract international resources [2][7] - Wazhou B announces a voluntary delisting with a buyout offer from its controlling shareholder, marking a trend of voluntary delistings aimed at improving overall market quality [2][7] Group 2 - From January to November, China's securities transaction stamp duty reached 185.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.7%, while total public budget revenue grew by 0.8% [3][8] - Global oil prices have dropped to a near five-year low due to oversupply, but analysts suggest potential for a rebound if OPEC+ halts production increases [3][8] - A network of individuals manipulating negative information about electric vehicle companies like Xiaomi and Huawei has been dismantled, highlighting the issue of online misinformation [3][8] Group 3 - The global semiconductor landscape is shifting as ASML faces order impacts from U.S. restrictions on China's chip industry, prompting suppliers to relocate to Southeast Asia [4][9] - Citigroup provides multiple predictions for the 2026 market, suggesting an expansion of the AI bubble and recommending investments in financial stocks while advising caution in consumer staples [4][10] - Jack Ma reduces his stake in Huayi Brothers, which is facing financial pressure due to overdue debts and declining revenues [4][10] Group 4 - Muxi Co. debuted on the STAR Market with a significant opening price increase, attracting substantial participation from public institutions, indicating strong market demand [5][10]

根据IEA最新报告，全球石油供应将比需求高出384万桶/日，低于11月份预测的409万桶/日过剩量。尽 管近400万桶/日的过剩仍相当于全球需求的近4%，处于分析师预测的上限，但此次下调仍显露出供需 格局的边际变化。 今年以来，全球石油供应量大幅上升，主要受石油输出国组织（欧佩克）及其合作伙伴（统称"欧佩克 +"）增产，以及美国和其他产油国产出的推动。值得注意的是，欧佩克+已暂停2026年第一季度的增产 计划。 欧佩克近期发布的月度报告则维持了对明年全球石油需求增长的预测不变。其数据显示，2026年全球石 油供应将与需求基本持平，这一判断与国际能源署（IEA）的观点存在差异。 来源：环球网 【环球网财经综合报道】据路透社等外媒报道，国际能源署（IEA）近日下调了明年全球石油供应过剩 的预测，这是自今年5月以来的首次下调。该机构称，由于世界经济走强等因素，需求前景将更加乐 观。 （图片来源：路透社） ...