证券研究报告 | 2026年01月05日 油气行业 2025 年 12 月月报 优于大市 受俄乌、委内瑞拉地缘政治博弈影响，12 月油价震荡下跌 12 月油价回顾： 2025 年 12 月布伦特原油期货均价为 61.6 美元/桶，环比下跌 2.0 美元/ 桶，月末收于 60.9 美元/桶；WTI 原油期货均价 57.9 美元/桶，环比下 跌 1.6 美元/桶，月末收于 57.4 美元/桶。12 月上旬，俄罗斯友谊输油 管道遭袭击，俄乌和平计划陷入僵局，加之美联储降息预期上升，油价 震荡上行；12 月中旬，IEA 称明年供应过剩规模较大，多方进行会谈推 进俄乌和平协议，市场担忧供应过剩加剧，油价下跌并触及年内低点； 12 月下旬，美国对委内瑞拉封锁，欧盟对俄影子舰队实施新制裁，引发 市场供应担忧，叠加美国经济数据强劲，油价连续上涨，12 月末美乌计 划再次举行会晤，俄乌和平协议或加剧供应过剩担忧，油价震荡下跌。 油价观点判断： 供给端 OPEC+宣布 2026 年第一季度暂停增产：OPEC+在 2025 年 4 月-9 月将 220 万桶/日自愿减产完全退出，并在 2025 年 9 月 7 日 OPEC+部长 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when prices fall [3]. - For methanol, with the potential positive impact of Iranian plant shutdowns materializing, the market has stopped falling and stabilized. The short - term bottom is expected to have emerged. However, high supply will limit further upward movement, and the market is likely to shift to a sideways adjustment. It's recommended to wait and see on the single - side and focus on positive spread opportunities for inter - month spreads [4]. - For urea, the price is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. With supply remaining high and demand improving, the inventory is decreasing. It's suggested to consider buying at low prices [6][8]. - For rubber, a neutral stance is taken currently. It's recommended to wait and see or engage in short - term trading. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is advised [10]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is weak, but short - term valuation has dropped to a low level. A mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before substantial industry production cuts [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with significant upward valuation repair potential. When the inventory reversal point occurs, one can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [17]. - For polyethylene, the OPEC + plan to pause production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The long - term strategy is to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [20]. - For polypropylene, in a context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation at the cost end changes in Q1 next year [22]. - For PX, it is expected to experience a slight inventory build - up in December. Attention should be paid to opportunities for going long on dips [25]. - For PTA, supply disruptions are expected to decrease as processing fees stabilize. There are opportunities for going long on dips based on expectations [26][27]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand outlook is weak in the medium term. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 4.80 yuan/barrel, or 1.06%, to 455.70 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed gasoline inventory increased by 0.84 million barrels to 8.98 million barrels (up 10.36% month - on - month), diesel inventory decreased by 1.19 million barrels to 15.08 million barrels (down 7.29% month - on - month), etc. [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Prices in Taicang, Lunan, and Inner Mongolia increased. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 1 yuan to 2136 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 21 and a 1 - 5 spread of - 96 [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term bottom is expected to have emerged. The market may shift to a sideways adjustment, and focus on positive spread opportunities for inter - month spreads [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased. The 01 - contract on the futures market fell 2 yuan to 1675 yuan, with a basis of - 5 and a 1 - 5 spread of - 69 [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. Consider buying at low prices [6][8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fell with a short - term technical breakdown. Thai rubber - producing areas' floods receded. Exchange RU inventory was low. As of November 27, 2025, Shandong tire enterprises' all - steel tire开工率 was 63.91%, up 3.34 percentage points from last week; semi - steel tire开工率 was 72.37%, down 0.40 percentage points from last week [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a neutral stance, wait and see, or engage in short - term trading. Hold a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose 4 yuan to 4553 yuan. The cost of calcium carbide and ethylene increased, while caustic soda prices decreased. The overall开工率 was 80.2%, up 1.4% [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply - demand situation is weak. A mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before substantial industry production cuts [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene was unchanged, and the futures price was also unchanged, with the basis widening. The spot price of styrene was unchanged, and the futures price fell, with the basis strengthening. The non - integrated profit of styrene decreased, and the port inventory increased [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with significant upward valuation repair potential. When the inventory reversal point occurs, go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The futures price rose. The upstream开工率 was 84.12%, down 0.05%. The inventory of production enterprises and traders decreased. The downstream average开工率 was 44.8%, up 0.11% [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC +'s plan may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The long - term strategy is to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The futures price fell. The upstream开工率 was 77.97%, up 0.8%. The inventory of production enterprises, traders, and ports decreased. The downstream average开工率 was 53.7%, up 0.13% [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In a context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation at the cost end changes in Q1 next year [22]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract rose 100 yuan to 6930 yuan. The PX CFR price rose 13 dollars to 849 dollars. The Chinese PX负荷 was 88.3%, down 1.2%; the Asian PX负荷 was 78.7%, down 1% [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect a slight inventory build - up in December. Pay attention to opportunities for going long on dips [25]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract rose 62 yuan to 4762 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 75 yuan to 4710 yuan. The PTA负荷 was 73.7%, up 2.7% [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply disruptions are expected to decrease as processing fees stabilize. There are opportunities for going long on dips based on expectations [26][27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 3 yuan to 3882 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 19 yuan to 3901 yuan. The supply - side负荷 was 73.1%, up 2.3%. The port inventory increased by 2.1 tons to 75.3 tons [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand outlook is weak in the medium term. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [28].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of crude oil prices, highlighting the factors influencing price movements and potential future trends in the market. Group 1: Current Price Trends - Crude oil futures are currently trading at low prices, with a recent low of $56 per barrel recorded on October 20th [2] - The 50-day moving average (50-DMA) has been acting as a resistance level since the recent low [3] Group 2: Factors Weighing on Oil Prices - Several factors are contributing to the downward pressure on oil prices, including a stronger dollar, firm interest rates, slower US factory activity at a four-month low due to tariffs, and discussions of a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal that could allow for increased Russian oil exports [4] Group 3: Potential Catalysts for Price Increase - Possible catalysts that could lead to higher oil prices include a break of the US dollar below 99, a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, failure of peace agreements, emergence of other geopolitical stresses, and unexpected production cuts from OPEC+ [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The article suggests looking for a close above $59 per barrel as a signal for potential price increases, with a phased approach to adding positions based on moving averages [8] - The strategy includes monitoring futures charts as a guide for trading the USO ETF and adjusting risk levels according to the Average True Range (ATR) strategy as prices rise [8] Group 5: Broader Market Context - There is an increasing focus on commodities, with potential spillover effects into other hard assets like silver and gold, indicating a broader investment strategy for 2026 [6]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including researchers for different products such as crude oil, asphalt, polyester, etc. [4] 2. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific overall industry investment rating is provided. However, individual product trends and potential investment suggestions are given: - For crude oil, it is recommended to take a short - term bearish approach, such as shorting on rebounds or using reverse spreads [8]. - For asphalt, it is suggested to try shorting as the price is expected to decline [30]. - For polyester (PTA and ethylene glycol), PTA is expected to decline slightly, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is better to wait and see [56]. - For short - fiber, the price is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [67]. - For polyolefins, the price is expected to remain under pressure and oscillate at the bottom. Although there may be short - term replenishment demand, it is mainly a weak support [85]. - For soda ash, the short - term is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to wait for policy implementation for trading [115]. - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see as the price oscillates due to the balance of long and short factors [147]. - For polysilicon, it is recommended to wait and see and conduct right - side trading after policy implementation [165]. - For pulp, it is recommended to wait and see due to the short - term strong trend but the pressure at the previous high [184]. 3. Core Views - The energy and chemical industry is generally affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and policy expectations. Most products face supply - side pressure, and the demand side shows different degrees of weakness. Crude oil and related products are affected by global supply - demand imbalances, while some chemical products are affected by industry - specific factors such as production capacity changes and downstream demand trends [8][30][85]. 4. Summary by Product Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: International oil prices fluctuated with a downward trend. WTI and SC prices decreased slightly, while Brent increased slightly. The market is in a situation of supply surplus in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 1st quarter of 2026 [7]. - **Supply**: OPEC + supply release is relatively stable, but the suspension of production increase in the 1st quarter of 2026 has limited support. Non - OPEC supply continues to increase, and the supply surplus is deepening [9][11]. - **Demand**: EIA and IEA expect global demand growth to be mainly driven by non - OECD countries, but the growth rate is relatively slow compared to supply growth [10][11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Take a short - term bearish approach, such as shorting on rebounds or using reverse spreads [8]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: Futures prices declined slightly, and spot prices in various regions also decreased. The cost side is affected by the weakening of the crude oil market, and the demand side in the northern region has declined significantly [29]. - **Supply**: Some refineries plan to adjust production or conduct maintenance, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly [29][32]. - **Demand**: The demand in the northern region has decreased significantly due to weather factors, and the demand in the southern region has also declined marginally [29][33]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try shorting as the price is expected to decline [30]. Polyester (PTA and Ethylene Glycol) - **Market Performance**: PTA cost support was strong first and then weak, and ethylene glycol prices oscillated downward [55]. - **Supply**: PTA supply is expected to be sufficient, and ethylene glycol supply is expected to increase with the restart of some devices and new device trials [55][56]. - **Demand**: The demand for polyester is stable in the short term but has a weakening expectation in the future [56]. - **Operation Suggestion**: PTA is expected to decline slightly, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is better to wait and see [56]. Short - fiber - **Market Performance**: The price of polyester short - fiber in the East China market declined oscillatingly last week [67]. - **Supply**: The supply is sufficient, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable [67][69]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand is weak, and the support for short - fiber is gradually weakening [68][69]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [67]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices of polyolefins declined slightly. The market is in a situation of bottom - oscillating due to supply - demand contradictions and cost - side pressure [73][84]. - **Supply**: The new production capacity is gradually released, and the production is expected to increase. Some maintenance devices will restart, and the production loss will decrease [85][86]. - **Demand**: The peak season is over, and the demand is expected to weaken. The downstream mainly conducts just - in - time procurement, and the demand support is weak [85]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to remain under pressure and oscillate at the bottom. Although there may be short - term replenishment demand, it is mainly a weak support [85]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The main contract of soda ash oscillated strongly, and the price fluctuated slightly. The production decreased slightly, and the demand increased slightly [114]. - **Supply**: The overall supply is loose, and the new production capacity is expected to be released in the future, increasing the supply pressure [119]. - **Demand**: The demand from downstream glass industries is weak, and the inventory of glass is high, which may further reduce the demand for soda ash [131][132]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The short - term is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to wait for policy implementation for trading [115]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillated after a short - term rise. The price is affected by factors such as production reduction in the southwest region and news in the photovoltaic industry [147]. - **Supply**: The production in the southwest region has decreased due to factors such as power cost increases, and the overall supply is affected [148]. - **Demand**: The demand from the polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon industries has different trends. The demand from the polycrystalline silicon industry is relatively stable, while the organic silicon industry plans to reduce production [149][150]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see as the price oscillates due to the balance of long and short factors [147]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The price oscillated with a weak start and then a strong end. The price is affected by policy expectations and market news [164]. - **Supply**: The supply is still higher than the demand, and the actual production reduction needs to be observed [165]. - **Demand**: The terminal demand has not recovered from the weak stage, and the price increase of polysilicon is limited by the downstream acceptance [165][168]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see and conduct right - side trading after policy implementation [165]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: The futures price of pulp increased slightly, and the spot price of imported pulp also increased. The short - term trend is strong, but there is pressure at the previous high [183]. - **Supply**: The supply pressure from domestic and foreign pulp mills is still released to the domestic market, and the inventory has increased [184]. - **Demand**: The performance of downstream base papers is still differentiated, and the packaging paper market is good, while other base paper prices are stable [184]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see due to the short - term strong trend but the pressure at the previous high [184].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, crude oil prices tumbled due to macro - sentiment and may continue to be weak in the short term. The global crude oil supply is in a pattern of cautious growth under "tight balance". The OPEC + alliance will increase production slightly in November, while non - OPEC + supply, such as US shale oil, faces bottlenecks. Global crude oil demand shows resilience but with a changing internal structure. The growth of demand is shifting from gasoline to diesel and aviation fuel. There are uncertainties in future demand due to the overall economic outlook. [6][7] - Short - term, the price may continue to decline by $2 - 3 per barrel. By the end of this year and the beginning of next year, Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel. Although the price decline has accelerated under the influence of trade frictions, it is difficult to decline continuously in the medium - long term. Attention should be paid to potential reversals in macro - expectations, which may amplify price fluctuations. [7] - The logic behind the views includes the intensification of Sino - US trade frictions, continuous OPEC + production increases and the start of seasonal inventory accumulation. There is a large long - term oversupply pressure, and inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter is hard to disprove. Attention should also be paid to the risk of a decline in Russian oil exports due to potential sanctions, and the increase in oil freight rates may stimulate the expansion of cross - regional spreads. [8] - In terms of valuation, the short - term valuation is at a medium - low level, and the oil price has fallen close to the cost of shale oil and is near the low point of this year. The strategy is to remain on the sidelines for single - sided trading and not to bottom - fish for now. Hold a light long - spread position (buy SC11, sell SC12) and add positions opportunistically in the future. The EFS spread and SC - Dubai spread may reverse. [8] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro - Sino - US trade frictions have escalated again, and the gold - oil ratio has increased. Overseas PPI has risen, and attention should be paid to inflation transmission. The RMB exchange rate has weakened slightly, and social financing has declined. [13][19][24] 2. Supply - OPEC +: The core supply side, the OPEC + alliance, adheres to its market - stabilizing strategy. In November, it will only increase production by 137,000 barrels per day, and the actual incremental supply flowing into the market is more limited due to compensatory production cuts and capacity bottlenecks. The future policy of OPEC + will highly depend on whether the expected supply surplus in 2025 - 2026 will materialize. [6] - Non - OPEC +: US shale oil production is facing bottlenecks. Investment is restricted due to oil price uncertainty and rising costs, and production growth has significantly slowed down or even declined. Geopolitical events such as the Ukrainian attack on Russian refineries have continuously disrupted Russian refined oil exports, while the return of Iraqi Kirkuk crude oil has provided a new source of medium - sulfur crude oil. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) repurchase plan will absorb more than 17 million barrels of crude oil from the market, further tightening the supply. [6] 3. Demand - Global demand shows resilience, but the internal structure is changing. US demand is an important support, with strong diesel consumption but weak gasoline demand. Emerging markets are showing differentiation. Indian demand has rebounded rapidly, while Chinese refineries have adjusted their procurement strategies. Jet fuel has become a new bright spot in global demand. However, the global refinery maintenance season has temporarily suppressed direct crude oil demand. [7] 4. Inventory - US commercial inventories have stabilized, and inventories in the Cushing area have also stabilized but are significantly lower than historical averages. European diesel inventories have rebounded, and gasoline inventories have decreased. Domestic refined oil profit margins have declined. [76][80][88] 5. Price and Spread - The global crude oil spot market has no obvious highlights. In the Middle East, Aramco's November OSP was not raised as expected. In the Americas, high - sulfur crude oil has strengthened, while low - sulfur crude oil is slightly weak. In the North Sea, there are differences in price trends. In the Mediterranean, there is still a bearish sentiment for low - sulfur crude oil. In West Africa, there is no obvious bullish sentiment. [92][94][95]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Affected by the Fed's cautious rate - cut expectations, the copper price is still on a strong trend due to tight fundamentals, though the upward momentum is weaker than the previous day [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: With supply and demand gradually tightening, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the short term, supported by the peak - season and pre - holiday stocking expectations [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: The supply - demand of crude oil is weakening. It is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - to - long term [12]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner due to high supply - demand pressure of crude oil and limited follow - up of spot prices [13][14]. - **PP**: PP is expected to fluctuate as the peak - season demand falls short of expectations and there is no actual anti - involution policy [15]. - **Plastic**: The plastic market is expected to fluctuate as the peak - season demand is underwhelming and no anti - involution policy has been implemented [17]. - **PVC**: PVC is expected to face downward pressure in the near term as downstream pre - holiday stocking ends and new capacity comes on stream [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: Attention should be paid to the price transmission between upstream and downstream after the price increase and the macro - market during the National Day holiday [20]. - **Urea**: The urea market is in a state of bottom - grinding with weak fundamentals and limited upward momentum [21][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: As of September 26th, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Red dates rose nearly 3%, and silver rose over 2%, while coke and coking coal fell over 2% [6]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:16 on September 26th, funds flowed into CSI 1000 2512, silver 2512, and CSI 500 2512, while flowing out of SSE 50 2512, copper 2511, and iron ore 2601 [7]. 3.2 Individual Commodity Analysis - **Copper**: The supply of refined copper remains tight due to smelter overhauls and reduced scrap copper supply. The demand is driven by pre - holiday replenishment [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is affected by the reduction of lithium mica - sourced production, and the demand for pre - holiday stocking is ending [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ production adjustment will increase the pressure in Q4. The travel peak season is over, but there are factors such as geopolitical risks and inventory changes [12]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is restricted by funds and weather. The cost support is strengthening, but the follow - up supply - demand pressure of crude oil is high [13][14]. - **PP**: The downstream开工率 is rising, but the peak - season demand is weak. There are new capacity releases and inventory reduction by petrochemical enterprises [15]. - **Plastic**: The开工率 is increasing, and the agricultural film is entering the peak season, but the peak - season effect is not obvious [17]. - **PVC**: The supply is increasing, the export expectation is weakening, and the inventory pressure is high. The cost support is strengthening [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: The mine output is increasing, and the downstream inventory is piling up. Attention should be paid to the price increase and holiday market [20]. - **Urea**: The daily output is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high [21][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is trading on the expected magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index is continuously weakening. Fundamentally, domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly due to reduced scrap copper imports and domestic smelter maintenance, which will support copper prices. However, the significant inventory build - up at the Shanghai Futures Exchange will limit the upside potential of the market [9]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the specific situation of mine resumption is unclear, which may cap the upside [10][11]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken, and it is recommended to go short on rallies. In the short - term, the market may focus on whether Europe and the US will increase sanctions on Russian crude oil, and the price will fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - The supply and demand of asphalt are both increasing. As the futures price has fallen to the lower end of the trading range, it is recommended to wait and see [14]. - It is expected that PP will trade in a range in the near term, with limited downside [15][16]. - It is expected that plastic will trade in a range in the near term, with limited downside [17]. - The upside potential of PVC is limited in the near term. Attention should be paid to whether the recent increase in demand can be sustained [18][19]. - Coking coal remains in a relatively strong trend at present [20]. - The urea market is building a bottom, with a chance of a rebound later. However, the loose supply - demand pattern has not reversed, and the market lacks drivers [21][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 17, most domestic futures main contracts declined. The container shipping European line dropped nearly 7%, rapeseed meal and polysilicon fell more than 2%, and alumina, silver futures, and soybeans No. 2 dropped nearly 2%. In terms of gains, low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 2%, SC crude oil and fuel oil rose more than 1%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also showed varying degrees of increase [6]. - As of 15:22 on September 17, in terms of capital flow in domestic futures main contracts, crude oil 2511, alumina 2601, and ten - year treasury bond 2512 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2509, CSI 500 2509, and SSE 50 2509 had capital outflows [7]. Hot - Spot Varieties Copper - Today, Shanghai copper opened and closed lower. The TC/RC fees remained weakly stable. The supply of refined copper will remain tight. The production of electrolytic copper in August decreased slightly month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The supply of scrap copper in September will decline, and smelters have maintenance plans. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has started to build up [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and closed high today. The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The supply from lithium mica raw materials decreased, and lithium spodumene became the main raw material. The demand is expected to increase during the peak season, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term [10][11]. Crude Oil - Crude oil is gradually exiting the seasonal travel peak. The overall oil product inventory in the US continues to increase, and OPEC+ will adjust production. Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of its flagship product. The supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken in the medium - to - long - term, and it will fluctuate in the short - term [12]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate has rebounded but is still at a relatively low level. The expected production in September will increase. The downstream construction rate has increased, but the shipment volume has decreased. The refinery inventory has increased slightly. The cost support is limited, and the supply and demand are both increasing [14]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP has rebounded but is at a relatively low level. The enterprise operating rate has increased, and the production ratio of standard products has risen. The cost has rebounded, and new production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected to trade in a range in the near term [15][16]. Plastic - The plastic operating rate has declined slightly. The downstream operating rate has increased, and the demand for agricultural films is expected to increase. The cost has rebounded, and new production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected to trade in a range in the near term [17]. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price has increased. The PVC operating rate has increased and is at a relatively high level. The downstream operating rate has increased but is still low compared to previous years. The export outlook has weakened, and the inventory pressure is large. The upside potential is limited [18][19]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low today but turned positive at the end. The spot price in the Shanxi market was stable, and the price of Mongolian coking coal increased. The production and imports have increased, and the inventory is gradually shifting to the end - users. The demand has increased, and it remains in a strong trend [20]. Urea - Urea opened low and closed low today, with weak intraday fluctuations. The daily production is expected to remain at a relatively high level, and the demand is affected by factors such as weak terminal demand and high inventory. The market is building a bottom, and there is a chance of a rebound [21][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint of the Report Crude oil prices are likely to remain range - bound and weak in the short term. The ongoing game between OPEC+ production cuts and increased US exports, potential supply increments from oil - producing countries like Iraq, weakening refinery demand, and rising refined product inventories all contribute to this outlook. Geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, but factors such as slow crude oil de - stocking, increasing refined product pressure, and expected tightening of macro - liquidity limit the upside potential of oil prices [7][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On July 22, 2025, crude oil futures prices generally weakened. The SC main contract fell 1.56% to 504.3 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 8 yuan/barrel from the previous day. WTI and Brent dropped 0.5% and 0.61% respectively, closing at 65.45 dollars/barrel and 68.67 dollars/barrel. The spreads of SC relative to Brent and WTI narrowed significantly, and the SC inter - term spread (continuous - consecutive 3) dropped 47.4% to 20.3 yuan/barrel, indicating eased near - end supply - demand pressure [2]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: On July 22, the trading volumes of WTI and Brent decreased by 26.8% and 30.4% respectively, and open interest also decreased, suggesting reduced market activity and partial exit of short - sellers. The single - day increase of 26,840 tons in fuel oil futures warehouse receipts indicates high pressure on bonded delivery resources, possibly related to increased refinery operations [3]. 2. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: Geopolitical supply uncertainties are increasing. Mexico plans to issue bonds worth billions of dollars to support its national oil company, and Iraq and Turkey are negotiating an energy agreement. The US has become a net exporter of Nigerian crude oil. However, OPEC+ maintaining the production - cut framework still restricts supply in the short term [4]. - **Demand Side**: Refinery demand has weakened marginally. US API data shows a 328,000 - barrel - per - day drop in refinery crude input in the week ending July 18. There is a structural differentiation in refined product consumption, with gasoline inventories decreasing by 1.228 million barrels and refined oil inventories increasing by 3.48 million barrels. The shutdown of the UK's Lindsey refinery further suppresses regional demand. The expected increase in global LNG supply may replace some fuel oil demand, but the natural gas cooperation between China and Algeria has limited substitution effect on crude oil [5]. - **Inventory Side**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 577,000 barrels (expected - 646,000 barrels), while Cushing inventories increased by 314,000 barrels, showing pressure at the delivery location. Refined product inventories are structurally differentiated, with unexpected refined oil inventory build - up and a narrowing decline in heating oil inventories, indicating weak terminal consumption momentum. The sharp increase in fuel oil warehouse receipts further highlights the implicit inventory pressure in the Asian market [6]. 3. Price Trend Judgment Crude oil prices are likely to remain range - bound and weak in the short term. The game between OPEC+ production cuts and US export growth continues, and potential supply increments from oil - producing countries like Iraq depend on the progress of agreements. On the demand side, the decline in refinery input and the structural build - up of refined product inventories indicate weakened support during the seasonal peak season. Geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, but factors such as slow crude oil de - stocking, rising refined product pressure, and expected tightening of macro - liquidity limit the upside potential of oil prices [7][8]. 4. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On July 22, 2025, SC, WTI, and Brent futures prices all declined. The spreads of SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI narrowed, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread dropped significantly. The US dollar index decreased, while the S&P 500 increased slightly. The DAX index decreased, and the RMB exchange rate remained stable. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, while Cushing inventories increased. The US strategic reserve inventory decreased slightly, and API inventories increased. The US refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume decreased [9]. - **Fuel Oil**: On July 22, 2025, the prices of some fuel oil futures and spot products decreased. The spreads of Singapore high - low sulfur and China high - low sulfur narrowed. Platts prices of some fuel oil products changed slightly, and there were changes in US distillate inventories [10]. 5. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: On July 23, Mexico took measures to strengthen the financial situation of its national oil company, and a Kuwaiti company made a final investment decision on a natural gas exploration project in Egypt. The US became a net exporter of Nigerian crude oil. On July 22, Mexico planned to issue bonds worth 7 - 10 billion dollars to support its national oil company. The IEA predicted a significant increase in global LNG supply next year. Zhongman Petroleum signed a natural gas exploration and development contract in Algeria. Iraq was considering renewing an energy agreement with Turkey, and Nigeria's Q1 oil production was 1.6 million barrels per day [11][12]. - **Demand**: As of July 21, the average price of domestic 92 gasoline increased by 48 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month [14]. - **Inventory**: In the week ending July 18, US API data showed changes in crude oil input, refined product imports, and various inventory levels, including significant increases in refined oil inventories and decreases in gasoline inventories. The fuel oil futures warehouse receipts increased by 26,840 tons [15]. - **Market Information**: As of July 23, the prices of some crude oil futures decreased. The trading volumes and open interest of WTI and Brent crude oil futures decreased, while those of natural gas futures changed. The market was in a state of multi - day oscillation, and concerns about summer demand and inventory changes affected price trends [16][17]. 6. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts such as WTI and Brent first - line contract prices and spreads, SC and WTI spreads, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, and various inventory and operating rate charts, which help to visually present the market situation [18][20][22].

Summary of Global Oil Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the global oil market, particularly the dynamics of oil prices, supply, and demand forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil. Key Points Oil Price Forecasts - The 2025 Brent price forecast has been raised marginally by $1/bbl to $67/bbl, with a forecast of $65 in 3Q25, reflecting a slight increase in risk premium [2][16][18] - Oil prices experienced significant volatility in 2Q25, fluctuating over a $20/bbl range due to tariff risks and geopolitical tensions [2][16] - The expectation is for Brent prices to drop to the low to mid-$60s in the near term, with a projected surplus in the oil market [7][37] Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ is expected to increase production, contributing to larger surpluses in the oil market over the next three quarters [3][19] - The unwinding of OPEC+ voluntary cuts is anticipated to add approximately 1.1Mb/d by the end of August, with actual increases likely falling short of targets due to compensation plans [19][55] - US shale production is projected to grow by 0.3Mb/d in 2025 and 0.1Mb/d in 2026, with rig activity trending lower [20][82] Demand Outlook - Global oil demand growth is now expected to be 0.8Mb/d in 2025, reflecting improved GDP growth prospects and resilient demand year-to-date [21][22] - The demand outlook has improved due to a more favorable impact from tariffs than initially feared [40] Geopolitical Risks - The geopolitical risk premium has decreased following a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, with no significant impact on oil flows observed [66] - Renewed tensions in the Middle East could potentially lift Brent prices back into the $70/bbl range, but skepticism about supply disruptions remains [8][22] Market Sentiment - The market is currently in backwardation, indicating a rapid shift in sentiment rather than a fundamental loosening of the market [23] - The overall market balance is looser by 0.2Mb/d in 2025 and 0.1Mb/d in 2026 compared to previous forecasts, driven by rising OPEC+ supply [37] Upside and Downside Risks - Upside risks include firmer global economic growth and improved OPEC+ compliance, while downside risks involve a global economic slowdown and further OPEC+ production increases [32] Inventory Trends - Global oil inventories have been on an upward trend, with a continued build through 2Q25, indicating a growing surplus in the market [37][96] Additional Important Insights - The market is expected to experience a seasonal decline in oil demand, particularly in the Middle East, which could further impact prices [3] - The potential for higher Iranian exports exists, although US pressure on Iran appears less likely [4][66] - The overall sentiment suggests a bearish outlook for oil prices in the near term, with expectations of lower prices driving supply responses from US producers [7][37] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the global oil market, highlighting the interplay between supply, demand, geopolitical factors, and market sentiment.

Market Overview - The commodity market saw an overall increase of 2.29% last week, with significant gains in the energy sector at 4.11% [1] - Agricultural products and black metals rose by 2.10% and 0.91% respectively, while precious metals and non-ferrous metals experienced declines of 1.76% and 0.09% [1] Specific Commodity Performance - Crude oil, methanol, and short fibers had the highest closing price increases at 8.82%, 5.86%, and 5.31% respectively [1] - Precious metals like gold, pulp, and silver saw notable declines of 1.99%, 1.50%, and 1.44% respectively [1] Capital Flow and Market Sentiment - There was a decrease in capital flow, primarily influenced by outflows from precious metals [1] - The evolving situation in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, is expected to impact short-term asset pricing and market dynamics [1] Energy Sector Insights - Oil prices surged due to tensions in the Middle East and a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. inventories, with OPEC+ effectively executing production cuts [1] - Positive expectations for summer oil demand have led to increases in fuel and asphalt prices [1] Chemical Sector Trends - The chemical sector generally strengthened due to rising energy prices, with methanol and other products experiencing a rebound [1] - However, the recovery of downstream demand remains uncertain, indicating a market driven by trading rather than sustained growth [1] Agricultural Sector Analysis - The oilseed and oil sector showed a strong upward trend, supported by domestic production cuts and policy expectations, despite weak soybean exports [1] - Corn prices faced pressure due to import substitution and declining profitability, while the hog market experienced fluctuations amid seasonal consumption declines [1]