Global Oil: Monthly Agency Data Snapshot 16 December 2024 ab 12 -120% -90% -60% -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% Jan-20 Sep-20 May-21 Jan-22 Sep-22 May-23 Jan-24 Sep-24 Africa USA Rest of Americas China Rest of Asia Europe Oceania Global We raise our global supply growth forecasts by 60kb/d in 2024 and 0.11Mb/d in 2025 to 0.59Mb/d and 1.35Mb/d respectively. Within this, we cut OPEC+ supply forecasts by 40kb/d for 2025 anticipating improving compliance and reflecting the recent trend in Iranian output, which is larg ...

M Update China Property | Asia Pacific December 16, 2024 01:44 PM GMT Weekly Database Tracker #49 Weekly secondary unit sales in 10 cities were +70% YoY (vs. +92% YoY last week) but -14.9% WoW: Tier 1 city weekly secondary unit sales were +126% YoY (vs. +106% YoY last week) but -1.9% WoW. Tier 2 city weekly secondary unit sales were +43% YoY (vs. +85% YoY last week) but -23% WoW. Among them, Shenzhen had the strongest performance, at +185% YoY. Exhibit 1: Weekly unit sales and four-week moving average – Tot ...

China Economic Comment China Weekly: Softer Exports and New Credit, CEWC Takeaways CEWC takeaways: bigger deficit, more rate cuts, greater support China concluded the much-awaited annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) on December 12th, outlining the government's main economic objectives and policy plans for 2025, which are largely in line with our CEWC preview and Politburo meeting. As usual, key growth and policy targets were not announced at CEWC but will Economics Figure 1: Net weekly issuance o ...

Key Points Industry or Company Involved * **Hyperscalers**: Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOGL), Meta (META), Oracle (ORCL) * **Software Companies**: Salesforce (CRM), Adobe (ADBE), Intuit (INTU), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Google (GOOGL) * **AI Startups**: Adept, MosaicML, Together.AI, Cohere, xAI, Inflection, Anthropic, AI21 Labs, Stability AI, Mistral AI Core Views and Evidence * **AI is a significant growth driver for hyperscalers and software companies**: AI is expected to drive significant revenue growth for hyperscalers and software companies over the next few years. This is driven by increasing demand for AI applications across various industries and the ability of these companies to leverage their existing infrastructure and data to develop and deploy AI solutions. * **AI adoption is accelerating**: AI adoption is accelerating across various industries, with increasing interest in AI applications for productivity, customer service, and other use cases. This is supported by evidence of growing AI budgets and increasing adoption of AI tools and platforms. * **Cloud providers are key beneficiaries of AI growth**: Cloud providers are well-positioned to benefit from AI growth due to their existing infrastructure and data, as well as their ability to offer AI services and platforms to customers. * **AI infrastructure is a key barrier to AI adoption**: AI infrastructure, including computing power, data storage, and data management tools, is a key barrier to AI adoption for many organizations. This is particularly challenging for smaller companies with limited resources. * **AI is still in the early stages**: While AI is growing rapidly, it is still in the early stages of development and adoption. This means that there is significant potential for future growth and innovation. Other Important Points * **AI is driving increased cloud consumption**: AI is driving increased demand for cloud services, as organizations need cloud infrastructure to support AI workloads. This is benefiting cloud providers and infrastructure companies. * **AI is creating new monetization opportunities**: AI is creating new monetization opportunities for software companies, including through the development of new AI-powered products and services, as well as through the integration of AI into existing products and services. * **AI is transforming the software industry**: AI is transforming the software industry by enabling new types of applications and services, and by changing the way software is developed and delivered. * **AI is creating new challenges**: AI is also creating new challenges, including ethical and societal challenges, as well as technical challenges related to AI safety and security. 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Exhibit 2: -10 -20 -50 Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Morgan Stanley Research; Data as of Tuesday, Exhibit 7: Exhibit 10: Options data and data from the futures market suggest that USD positioning is long ( Exhibit 7 ). USD/CAD is the preferred short and AUD/USD the preferred long from our short-term (weekly) contrarian strategy model ( Exhibit 8 ). Source: DTCC, Bloomberg, Macrobond, Morgan Stanley Research; Options data as of Friday, December 13; Futures data as of Tuesday, December 10. Note: Using options ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 M Idea - JAZZ (+45% to our $175 price target): Ziihera for HER2+ BTC. The 2L BTC commercial launch is underway following Ziihera accelerated approval on November 20, 2024. Further out, we expect additional Ziihera topline growth could come from gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma (GEA) and the pivotal HERIZON-GEA-01 topline in 2Q25. | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------- ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 16 Dec 2024 09:39:51 ET │ 42 pages Our July 2024 sector downgrade proved overly bearish as we did not expect the pull-forward demand to last into DecQ-24, that has been partly holding SCFI above the 2,000 level. We reassessed risks / rewards and see positive payoffs at 0.8-0.9x 2025E PBV of APAC liners under coverage in relation to revised up 2025E core ROE of 8-12% from cBE earlier. This is driven by expected demand strength in MarQ-25E that is close to be able to cover TransPa ...

Morgan Stanley Research 3 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 후원부출장샵출장샵δεξέρξερξέρδεξέρδριαδέλλβλορια == AMD = ARM Others mintol = Others 4 Morgan Stanley Research 5 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Morgan Stanley Research 7 M Idea 8 in research on the same stock. This may be the result of differing time horizons, methodologies, market events, or other factors. For all research available on a particular stock, please contact your sales representative or go to Matrix at http://www.morganstanley.com/matri ...

The Central Financial and Economic Affair Office said new wordings on policies are significant, and concrete measures will be disclosed at the March NPC. M Foundation Final demand is the key Cross-sectional evidence suggests investment slowdown is not enough for reflation 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Dec-14Jun-15Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23Dec-23Jun-24Dec-24 China ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 US: Trend in Empire still OK despite December drop The December Empire State manufacturing survey declined from its spike in November, with the headline general business activity component decreasing from 31.2 to 0.2. Additionally, the ISM-weighted composite fell from 56.6 to 51.3. The survey had seen an unexpected surge in November, and there had been large increases in the current shipments and orders components. However, today's reading indicated a significant 20+ point drop ...