V i e w p o i n t | 10 Jan 2025 05:15:28 ET │ 11 pages Taiwan Hardware & Storage Dec-24 NB Shipments Tracked Slightly Higher; 1Q25E Set to See Seasonal Decline CITI'S TAKE NB shipments, as reported by ODMs, for Dec-24 were +8% m-o-m/+12% y-o-y. The number beat our forecast by c.4%, while overall 4Q24 shipments of 31.6mn units (-7% q-o-q/+5% y-o-y) were c.1.0% higher than our forecast. Most of the ODMs are yet to release their official 1Q25E guide; however, considering a lowered comp base since 2H24, 1Q25E m ...

January 10, 2025 03:19 PM GMT US Economics | North America December employment: So much for downside risk The report should reduce concerns about a weaker labor market: payrolls +256k, UE rate -0.15pp to 4.1%. Services drove the acceleration: upswings in holiday-related retail & transport, and also in business services. Payroll earnings rose 5.9% saar pace in 4Q. Fed cuts are about inflation now. Payrolls increased 256k in December, with private payrolls +223k and little revision to prior months. The unempl ...

Summary of Sunny Optical (2382.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Sunny Optical Technology Group Co., Ltd. (2382.HK) - **Industry**: Optical components and modules, including handset lenses, vehicle lenses, and camera modules Key Points and Arguments Shipment Performance - **Handset Lens**: - December shipment decreased by 6% month-over-month (MoM) and 2% year-over-year (YoY) to 105 million units - Total 2024 shipment forecast at 1.3 billion units, reflecting a 13% YoY increase, consistent with previous estimates [1][7] - **Camera Modules**: - December shipment increased by 43% MoM and 13% YoY, attributed to low base from last year and year-end delivery requests - Total 2024 shipment forecast at 534 million units, a 6% YoY decline, in line with previous estimates [1][8] - **Vehicle Lens**: - December shipment decreased by 15% MoM but increased by 35% YoY to 6 million units, supported by new projects from clients - Total 2024 shipment forecast at 102 million units, reflecting a 13% YoY increase, slightly below previous estimates [1][7] Financial Performance - **Revenue Estimates**: - 2024 revenue estimate revised to RMB 38.071 billion, unchanged from previous estimates - 2025 revenue estimate revised to RMB 45.841 billion, also unchanged [9] - **Earnings Estimates**: - 2024 net income estimate revised to RMB 2.386 billion, reflecting no change from previous estimates - 2025 net income estimate remains at RMB 2.969 billion [9] Margins and Valuation - **Margins**: - Gross margin for 2024 estimated at 17.4%, with operating margin at 5.8% - Margins expected to improve slightly in subsequent years [9][10] - **Valuation**: - Target price maintained at HK$70.4, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 24.2x for 2025, consistent with historical averages - Current share price at HK$62.70, indicating a potential upside of 12.3% [12][14] Risks - **Competitive Landscape**: - Potential for increased competition in the handset lens market - Variability in shipment growth for camera modules and market share gains [13] - **Currency Fluctuations**: - Risks associated with RMB appreciation or depreciation impacting financial performance [13] Additional Important Information - **Market Context**: - The company is facing challenges from competitors such as Largan and Genius, with varying revenue performances noted [1] - **Management Commentary**: - Management remains cautious about the outlook, particularly in the handset lens segment, while expressing optimism about vehicle lens growth due to new projects [1][8] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding Sunny Optical's performance, financial outlook, and market conditions, providing a comprehensive overview for potential investors.

ab 10 January 2025 Global Research Life Sciences & Diagnostic Tools 2025 Emerging Growth Outlook: Favor Applications vs Technologies Bottom Line Within our emerging growth coverage, we're more constructive on genomics application companies vs genomics technology companies in 2025. We've moved Guardant Health (GH) to our top pick within the group, with a view that the company has an underappreciated catalyst path, highlighted by ramp of its Shield test in CRC screening (see recent survey). Natera (NTRA) shou ...

FICC Research Economics 10 January 2025 China Outlook PBoC's dilemma Geopolitics and tariff threats dominate investor concerns, while tumbling equity, currency, and bond yields add to the PBoC's challenges as it balances multiple objectives. As deflationary forces persist and fiscal underdelivers, we expect CPI to stay low for longer, and PPI to remain negative. We think recent market developments highlight the dilemma and challenges facing the PBoC: the central bank has pivoted to more significant monetary ...

FICC Research Credit & Macro Research 10 January 2025 EM Flows New year, same pattern The first week of 2025 brought little 'new' news for EM bond fund flows. EM credit funds saw more outflows, similar in size to the elevated levels of December. Again, outflows were concentrated in ETF products. In contrast, inflows into local-currency EM bond funds accelerated with one of the largest weekly volumes recorded over the past 12 months. For equity fund flows, the year started more upbeat, however. After three w ...

Our daily product rounds up key stories from the Chinese language media overnight, focusing on developments in the technology space. See our latest research on Barclays Live. January 10, 2025 Equity Research China Technology 10 January 2025 China Technology CBO - China Brief Overnight - 1/10/2025 The size of China's fiscal deficit is expected to increase significantly in 2025; Guangzhou existing home transactions in 2024 reached their highest level in the past three years; Tesla officially launches revamped ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Polysilicon - The polysilicon industry cycle is believed to have hit the bottom, but immediate recovery is not visible. There are both positive and negative events anticipated in 1Q/2Q25 that may provide trading opportunities [2][4] Core Insights - **Negative Outlook**: - Significant impairment losses are expected for polysilicon producers in 4Q24, leading to worse-than-expected earnings for FY24. By the end of 2024, polysilicon inventory levels continued to rise, with prices under pressure at approximately Rmb 40/kg [4][2] - Producers have been reducing production capacity utilization throughout 2024, which may lead to impairment risks for production facilities [4] - **Positive Outlook**: - Polysilicon prices may overshoot in mid-to-end 2Q25 due to declining supplies and decreasing inventory levels. Major producers have reduced capacity utilization to support prices [4] - Expected polysilicon supply in January 2025 is projected at 98,000 tons, while demand is estimated at 101,000 tons, indicating a potential inventory reduction in the coming months [4][6] Company Ratings - **Daqo (DQ US)**: - Rated Overweight (OW) due to cost leadership, strong balance sheet, and attractive valuation at 0.3x FY25 Price-to-Book Value (P/BV) [4][9] - **Tongwei (600438 CH)**: - Rated Underweight (UW) due to high valuation at 1.7x FY25 P/BV [4][9] Additional Insights - The current polysilicon inventory is estimated to be between 300,000 to 400,000 tons, and it takes approximately 2 to 3 months for a polysilicon plant to resume production, indicating a potential time gap for any supply increase [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels and production capacity as key indicators for future price movements in the polysilicon market [4][2] Conclusion - The polysilicon industry is at a critical juncture with potential trading opportunities arising from both negative and positive developments. Investors should closely watch the earnings reports and inventory levels as indicators of market direction [2][4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: US Consumer Electronics - **Event**: CES 2025 Highlights Core Themes and Insights 1. **Autonomous Vehicles**: - A significant presence of autonomous vehicle companies, particularly from China, with Waymo leading the exhibit. - Notable mention of Xpeng showcasing a flying car, indicating a positive mood in the sector [2][2]. 2. **Robotics**: - Increased focus on both industrial and humanoid robots designed for home tasks, such as cleaning and companionship. - The Unitree humanoid robot, likened to Boston Dynamics, received particular praise for its capabilities [2][2]. 3. **Augmented Reality (AR) Glasses**: - High interest at booths, with long lines for demonstrations. - Some products, like Xreal, were well-received, while others faced criticism for technical limitations, such as requiring additional masks to block backgrounds [2][2]. 4. **Digital Twins**: - Enhanced discussions around digital twin technology, aligning with Nvidia's strategic vision, indicating a growing trend in this area [2][2]. 5. **AI-Embedded TVs**: - Strong consumer interest in televisions featuring AI technology, with Samsung and LG showcasing models integrated with Microsoft and Google Gemini. - LG's transparent OLED display was highlighted as a standout innovation [2][2]. Additional Important Insights - The overall atmosphere at CES 2025 was described as uplifting, reflecting optimism in the consumer electronics sector. - The presence of various startups and established companies indicates a competitive landscape with rapid technological advancements [2][2]. This summary encapsulates the key themes and insights from the CES 2025 conference call, focusing on the advancements and trends within the US consumer electronics industry.

ab 10 January 2025 Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab Global Research China 360 Household habits - new survey insights Smaller cities more upbeat In most categories, the share of consumers spending more in the past six months has been stronger in tier-3 cities than tier-1/2. In some segments, the trends clearly diverge: while the data suggest a rebound in the share of tier-3 consumers spending more on baijiu, this figure barely budged in higher-tier cities. The same pattern is evident in beer and soft drinks, ...