Financial Data and Key Metrics - The stock market performed weakly last week, with cyclical sectors such as consumer, real estate, and pharmaceuticals experiencing declines [1][2] - The bond market showed strong performance, with long-term government bond yields falling below 2.5% [1][2] - The RMB faced depreciation pressure, with the USD/RMB exchange rate breaking through 7.25 and offshore RMB reaching above 7.3 [1][2] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - The A-share market is currently focused on two sectors: dividends and technology [1][4] - The industrial mother machine concept gained recognition due to the tech conference, and AI-driven changes in the consumer electronics and Apple supply chain have attracted attention [1][4] Market Data and Key Metrics - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with market confidence in policy remaining low despite some easing measures [2] - The export sector showed strong performance from the beginning of the year to mid-May, but this trend is unlikely to sustain without a new global easing cycle [4] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company highlighted the need to eliminate negative factors such as tight global USD liquidity and domestic real estate issues to fully repair the A-share market and create conditions for a new bull market [5][6] - The company emphasized that the current phase of risk aversion is marked by the shift in market capitalization from Moutai to ICBC, signaling the end of the leveraged growth era [1][3] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the current risk aversion in the market is due to global USD liquidity tightening and domestic real estate issues, which need to be resolved to restore market confidence [5][6] - The company expects that the A-share market will require both overseas USD liquidity easing and domestic interest rate cuts to achieve a full recovery [7] Other Important Information - The company discussed the potential impact of the upcoming Third Plenum, which is expected to focus on central-local fiscal relations and systemic reforms to address current economic challenges [9][10] - The company highlighted the importance of fiscal and tax reforms in addressing the unsustainable fiscal model and supporting future economic growth [11][16] Q&A Summary Question: What were the main characteristics of the capital market last week? - The capital market was dominated by risk aversion, with weak stock market performance and strong bond market performance [2] Question: What is the significance of Moutai's market capitalization being surpassed by ICBC? - This shift marks the end of China's leveraged growth era and reflects the current extreme risk aversion in the market [3] Question: What sectors in the A-share market are worth paying attention to? - The A-share market is currently focused on dividends and technology, with particular attention on AI-driven changes in consumer electronics and the Apple supply chain [4] Question: When will the risk appetite for Chinese assets open up? - The risk appetite for Chinese assets will open up once negative factors such as global USD liquidity tightening and domestic real estate issues are resolved [5][6] Question: What are the main reasons for the poor performance of the A-share market over the past two years? - The poor performance is attributed to global USD liquidity tightening and domestic real estate issues [6] Question: What conditions are needed for the repair and rebound of Chinese asset risks? - The repair and rebound of Chinese asset risks require overseas USD liquidity easing and domestic interest rate cuts [7] Question: Why has China not implemented large-scale easing policies? - China has not implemented large-scale easing due to RMB depreciation pressure and incomplete financial supply-side reforms [8] Question: What impact will the Third Plenum have on market expectations? - The Third Plenum is expected to focus on central-local fiscal relations and systemic reforms, which could influence market expectations [9][10] Question: What are the main challenges facing China's real estate market? - The real estate market faces challenges such as oversupply, demographic changes, and reduced demand due to population aging [12] Question: How does local fiscal contraction affect the economy? - Local fiscal contraction has significantly impacted government spending and public services, contributing to overall economic weakness [13] Question: What are the long-term impacts of demographic changes on China's economy? - Demographic changes, including aging and declining birth rates, will have profound impacts on labor supply, consumption, and social security systems [14][17] Question: What are the key drivers of China's rapid prosperity over the past 20 years? - The key drivers include industrialization, urbanization, and a leveraged growth model supported by a large working-age population [15] Question: How is fiscal reform interconnected with other institutional reforms? - Fiscal reform is closely linked to other institutional reforms, including government expenditure optimization, social security system improvement, and financial regulation [16] Question: What are the current and future trends in China's population structure? - China's population is aging rapidly, with the proportion of elderly expected to double by 2051, and a significant decline in the working-age population [17][18] Question: What are the causes and effects of the declining birth rate? - The declining birth rate is caused by a reduction in the number of women of childbearing age and is expected to exacerbate labor shortages and economic challenges [19][21] Question: How will population distribution between urban and rural areas affect social development? - The concentration of young people in cities and the aging population in rural areas will lead to resource allocation imbalances and increased fiscal pressure [20][23] Question: What measures should the Chinese government take to address aging and declining birth rates? - The government should focus on employment, education reform, vocational training, and improving the social security system to address these challenges [24][25] Question: How should healthcare reform be conducted? - Healthcare reform should focus on cost control through centralized procurement and the development of a multi-tiered medical security system [26] Question: What are the expected reforms in consumption tax? - Consumption tax reforms are expected to shift from the production to the consumption stage and be decentralized to local governments [30] Question: What is the outlook for the copper market? - The copper market is expected to remain weak until there is a clear signal of monetary easing in the US or China [35] Question: What is the outlook for the bond market in July? - The bond market's performance in July will depend on RMB exchange rate pressures, with limited downside if the pressure is high [37]

Financial Data and Key Metrics - US manufacturing PMI for May recorded 49.2, below the previous value and expectations, indicating a continued downward trend in economic fundamentals amid slower-than-expected inflation cooling [5] - Global manufacturing PMI for May rose to 50.9, showing a divergence in global manufacturing performance, with China declining, emerging markets expanding, Europe bottoming out, Germany improving, the US declining, Japan and South Korea recovering, and India performing well [5] - US CPI for April showed core CPI growth at 0.3% month-on-month, the lowest in three years, easing concerns about a "no landing" scenario and secondary inflation risks [25] - US non-farm payrolls for May exceeded expectations, with education and health services, leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and government sectors being the main contributors [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - Exports to the US, ASEAN, and Latin America performed better in May, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, exceeding the expected 6.4% [10] - Exports of household appliances, consumer electronics, and semiconductor-related products performed relatively well, with the contribution of electronics and semiconductors to exports rising from 0.77% to 1.12% [10] - The export growth rate is expected to fluctuate more in Q3, with a possible negative growth in Q3 and a low single-digit positive growth for the full year [10] Market Data and Key Metrics - The European Central Bank (ECB) cut its main refinancing rate, marginal lending rate, and deposit facility rate by 25bps to 4.25%, 4.50%, and 3.75% respectively, in line with market expectations [7] - The ECB maintained its forecast of two more rate cuts within the year, with no rate cut expected in July [7] - The US dollar index is expected to remain strong during the election year, with a unified government potentially benefiting the dollar index more than a divided government [31] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company is focusing on export opportunities to Europe, particularly in light industry, electrical equipment, household appliances, consumer electronics, semiconductors, and general machinery [15][22] - The company is monitoring the rightward shift in the European Parliament elections, which may lead to a downward revision of export expectations for "new three" products (electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells) [13] - The company is optimistic about the recovery of the European economy, with potential valuation repair in European stocks as the economy stabilizes [22] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Prospects - The company expects the US inflation trend to remain sticky, with the Federal Reserve likely to cut rates only once or not at all within the year [25] - The company anticipates that the US labor market will continue to cool slowly, with the Federal Reserve prioritizing inflation control and unlikely to cut rates within the year [28] - The company predicts that long-term US Treasury yields will fluctuate around 4%, with real interest rates unlikely to decline significantly [34][40] Other Important Information - The company highlights the potential for Bitcoin to outperform gold and the US dollar in the medium to long term, driven by global liquidity changes, risk appetite, and technological advancements [77] - The company expects oil prices to fluctuate around $85-90 per barrel, with a potential increase in the latter half of the year due to supply-demand tightness and OPEC+ efforts to support prices [66][68] - The company notes that copper prices may face downward pressure in Q3 due to a strong US dollar, but a sustained upward trend will depend on the economic recovery post-rate cuts [71] Summary of Q&A Session - No specific Q&A session details were provided in the document.

Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - Japan's inflation level is steadily rising, with expectations for another interest rate hike in July 2024 due to "re-inflation" pressures [1] - The Bank of Japan may face challenges in tightening monetary policy as the economy struggles to recover, necessitating a balance between supporting growth and controlling inflation [1] Business Line Data and Key Indicators Changes - In the U.S., the GDP growth rate was revised down from an initial estimate of 1.6% to 1.3% for Q1 2024, with personal consumption growth also adjusted down to 2% [4][7] - Private consumption, which constitutes about 45% of GDP, showed resilience with a growth rate of 3.9%, indicating structural strengths despite overall economic slowdown [4] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - The U.S. trade deficit widened in April 2024, with imports increasing by 2.4% and exports growing by 2.5%, reflecting a shift in demand dynamics [10] - In the Eurozone, the actual GDP growth rate for Q1 2024 was 0.3%, driven primarily by household consumption and net exports, while investment showed a decline [20][21] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The U.S. economy is expected to experience a slowdown in growth momentum, with private consumption likely to be suppressed as excess savings are depleted [15] - The Eurozone is focusing on fiscal discipline while also promoting government investment growth, with the European Parliament passing reforms to limit deficits and debts [30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management highlighted that the U.S. economy is facing increased uncertainty, with consumer confidence declining significantly in May 2024 [4] - In Japan, the management noted that the economy is hindered by short-term disruptions, with consumer sentiment weakening and private investment remaining low [47][49] Other Important Information - The U.S. commercial real estate sector is under pressure, with rising vacancy rates and declining property values, raising concerns about financial stability among smaller banks [19] - The Eurozone's inflation showed signs of rebound in May 2024, with the harmonized CPI increasing to 2.6%, indicating potential challenges for monetary policy [25] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: What are the expectations for U.S. economic growth in the coming quarters? - The U.S. GDP growth is projected to be around 1.8% for Q3 2024, with a full-year growth rate of approximately 2.1%, reflecting a decline from the previous year [18] Question: How is the Eurozone managing its economic recovery? - The Eurozone is experiencing a slow recovery, with private consumption and investment being the main growth drivers, while government spending remains stable [30] Question: What are the risks associated with the commercial real estate market in the U.S.? - The commercial real estate market is facing significant risks due to high vacancy rates and reliance on leveraged financing, which could impact the broader economy [19]

Financial Performance and Key Indicators - The company expects a net profit of 1.16 billion to 1.26 billion yuan for the first half of 2021, representing a year-on-year growth of 15% to 25% [1] - In Q2, the net profit is projected to be between 700 million to 800 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 17% to 30% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of nearly 50% to 70% [1] Coal Segment and Related Projects - The total coal production capacity is 19.1 million tons per year, with coking coal production capacity at 11.1 million tons per year [1] - The Haizitan coal mine is expected to reach a production capacity of 10 million tons per year, with a projected capacity exceeding 20 million tons by 2027 [1] - The company owns 15 coking coal mines with a total coal resource of 3.829 billion tons, including 920 million tons of high-quality coking coal and 2.907 billion tons of thermal coal [1] - The average selling price of coking coal in Q1 was 1916 yuan per ton, with production costs around 820 yuan per ton [1] Power Business and Market Performance - The power business has turned profitable since the second half of last year, with continued growth in performance this year [1] - The company has a controlling installed capacity of 9.18 million kilowatts and a shareholding installed capacity of 4 million kilowatts [1] - In Q1, the power generation reached 10 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of nearly 15%, with heating volume up nearly 30% [1] - The average power generation energy consumption for coal-fired units was 295.65 grams per kilowatt-hour, lower than the national average by 7.75 grams per kilowatt-hour [1] Petrochemical and Energy Storage Segments - The petrochemical segment is small, with the Huayi Petrochemical project located in Guangdong, having an annual online storage capacity of 21.5 million tons [1] - The energy storage segment aims to achieve a scale by 2025 and a market share of over 30% for vanadium flow batteries by 2027 to 2030 [1] - The Gansu Dunhuang Phase I vanadium pentoxide production line and Zhangjiagang Detai energy storage equipment company's Phase I 300 MW production line are under construction [1] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company plans to focus capital expenditures on the Haizitan coal mine and energy storage project construction over the next two years [5] - The company aims to consolidate its coal and power segments to improve economic efficiency and accelerate the construction of the Haizitan coal mine, expecting significant growth in future performance [5] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Despite a year-on-year negative growth in national thermal power generation, the company's power plants in Zhangjiagang achieved a load rate of 80%-90%, with increased electricity demand during high-temperature periods in Henan [5] - The company will continue to monitor market developments for energy storage projects and expects annual output value of about 1 billion yuan with a comprehensive return rate of 10-15% once two production lines are operational [5] Other Important Information - The company’s overall coverage rate for long-term coal supply agreements was approximately 80% last year and has reached 80% in Q1 this year, with expectations for better performance throughout the year [2][4] Q&A Session Summary Question: Does the company’s power plant long-term coal supply cover all needs? Is the coal sold to power plants at long-term prices? - The company primarily sells coking coal, and the coal for power plants is mainly purchased externally [2] Question: How do the prices of coking coal, thermal coal, and mixed coal compare year-on-year for the first half of this year? - Coal prices decreased year-on-year in Q1 but have seen a rebound since Q2 [2] Question: Is the mixed coal sold at market prices, and is the guaranteed supply coal also sold at market prices? - The guaranteed supply coal accounts for a very small proportion, with the company mainly selling coking coal and raw coal [2] Question: Will there still be guaranteed supply coal sales this year, and have market prices fallen below 900 yuan? - The sales structure changes have minimal impact on the overall price increase of mixed coal due to its low calorific value [3] Question: What is the net asset situation of the Huaying Petrochemical project? - The company completed its restructuring at the end of 2020, and all shares from debt-to-equity swaps were released by September 2022 [4] Question: How has the procurement cost of thermal coal for power plants changed year-on-year in the first half of this year? - The overall coverage rate for long-term agreements was about 80% last year and has reached 80% in Q1 this year, with expectations for better performance [4] Question: What is the expected contribution of the energy storage business to the company’s profits in the next two to three years? - The energy storage market's development prospects are uncertain, but the company anticipates significant output value once production lines are operational [5] Question: How much is the coal production expected to increase in Q2 compared to Q1? - Coal production typically sees a significant increase in Q2 compared to Q1 due to lower production during the Spring Festival [5] Question: How does the nationwide negative growth in thermal power generation affect the company’s power plants? - The company’s power plants have maintained high load rates, and electricity demand has increased during peak periods [5] Question: Does the company plan to achieve full self-supply of thermal coal for its power plants in the future? - The company primarily produces high-quality coking coal for steelmaking, while the coal needed for power plants is mainly sourced externally [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for the first quarter compared to the previous year, but net profit after deductions showed a slight increase [70] - The automotive sector is undergoing a transformation, shifting from traditional products to automotive components, particularly in the area of thermal management systems for electric vehicles [80][82] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focusing on developing new products, including thermal management systems for electric vehicles, which have a higher value per vehicle compared to traditional fuel vehicles [80][82] - The revenue from the bearing segment has surpassed that from traditional products, indicating a successful transition towards more complex automotive components [106] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The penetration rate of electric vehicles is increasing, which presents significant opportunities for the company in the thermal management and bearing markets [8][80] - The company is experiencing pressure from traditional business lines due to overall economic conditions, but there are signs of growth in specific segments like airbags and gas generators [70][80] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is investing in research and development for new products, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, with a focus on thermal management systems and bearings [8][80] - There is a strategic shift towards enhancing production capabilities and developing proprietary technologies to meet the demands of the automotive industry [36][80] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future growth potential in the electric vehicle market, despite current pressures from traditional sectors [80][82] - The company is actively working on product development cycles, which are essential for entering the electric vehicle market, with expectations for formal project participation by 2025 [101][116] Other Important Information - The company has established partnerships with various clients to co-develop products, particularly in the automotive sector, which is crucial for market penetration [101][116] - The company is also focusing on enhancing its production facilities to support the growing demand for electric vehicle components [96][117] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the company's plans for expanding product lines? - The company is looking to expand its product lines primarily in the area of electric vehicle components, particularly thermal management systems and bearings [80][85] Question: How is the company addressing competition in the electric vehicle market? - Management acknowledged the competitive landscape but emphasized the importance of collaboration with clients to develop innovative solutions [101] Question: What is the expected timeline for new product launches? - The company anticipates that formal projects for new products will begin to materialize around 2025, aligning with the development cycles of electric vehicles [101][116]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 恒立液压 原文 20240626_ 2024年06月28日00:20 发言人 00:00 公司的一个情况。然后后面的话我们来做这个QA的交流。张总，好的，好，谢谢郑总。其实 应该说刚刚提到说这个Q1，Q一其实应该说我们前面也跟大家做过一些交流那基本上就是说还 是同比是但挖掘机相关的可能这个会有所下滑，但是我们的一些非标板块确实做了一些补充。 所以整个一季度这个收入利润上面总体是有小幅的一个下滑。其实这个二季度也基本上已经结 束了。 发言人 00:45 其实整体看下来，包括行业的数据，行业的数据其实在六月份他预期的还是不错的对吧？整个 环比1到5月份的这个项目也在收窄，而且国内同比例实现了一个相对还不错的一个增长，出 口的降幅在收窄，所以总体整个二季度行业的表现还是不错的。那么我们自己总体来讲应该说 环比一季度要稍微好一些。因为这个本身虽然说这个挖掘机相关的一些产品，可能相对来讲还 是偏弱那么一点点。总体因为我们有这个规划层的一些补充，所以我们整个二季度应该相对来 讲还是不错的。虽然说去年的二季度还是一个相对比较高的一个基数，就是说整个的上半年的 情况， ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 北汽蓝谷 原文 20240626_ 2024年06月27日20:27 发言人 00:00 他会想的王总简单简单介绍一下北汽蓝浦半年报的基本经营情况和跟华为合作的情况，可以 吗？是这样，因为半年到现在还没到销售的时间，可能半年报相关的信息这边就不太方便跟大 家去分享了。然后公司其他的相关的信息到时候可以跟大家去分享一下，要不我就用几分钟给 公司一些信息带来。 发言人 00:21 哦哦哦行，那我给大家梳理一下，就我们公司自从现在跟华为合作以后，现在公司旗下是有三 大品牌。分别是按照时间相关顺序，分别是北京品牌、洗护品牌和化妆品牌。化妆品牌就是指 的我们跟华为合作的这个品牌。 发言人 00:35 北京品牌如果之前有投资人关注我们公司的话，应该相对来说是比较熟悉了。我们之前在2019 年也是做过连续七年的一个销冠。我们其中的北京品牌的EU5，之前也是被大家赞誉为网约神 车，这个车现在也一直在售。这个北京品牌现在的话可能80%到90%都是对公市场。就是我们 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a stable gross margin over recent years, maintaining a range between 65% and 70% [32] - The average service fee per site is approximately 50,000 yuan per year, contributing to a high gross margin exceeding 95% for service fees [119][57] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The core business of power forecasting has shown steady growth, with a net increase of 700 users targeted for the current year, following previous increases of 559 and 632 users in the prior years [119] - The company’s revenue structure indicates that 2.68 billion yuan out of 4.5 billion yuan total revenue comes from renewable energy forecasting [79] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates that the relaxation of the "three red lines" policy will lead to an increase in installed capacity, potentially adding around 15 billion watts [2] - The company has observed a significant market shift towards electricity market liberalization, with several provinces expected to enter pilot programs for market trading [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to become an energy data management expert integrating generation, grid, and storage [47] - Future product innovations will focus on new energy systems, including power trading products, energy management systems (EMS), and virtual power plants [47][81] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth of the power forecasting business due to increased user participation in market transactions following policy changes [87] - The company is aware of increased competition in the market as more peers enter the electricity trading space [19] Other Important Information - The company has a strong focus on enhancing its technological capabilities in power forecasting, which is crucial for maintaining its competitive edge [24] - The company is actively monitoring policy changes related to distributed energy resources, which may become a target market in the future [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the impact of the relaxation of the "three red lines" policy on the company's business? - Management indicated that the relaxation could lead to increased installed capacity and greater participation in market transactions, benefiting the power forecasting business [87][106] Question: What is the current status of the virtual power plant business? - The virtual power plant business is still in the investment phase, with a focus on developing a platform for aggregating controllable loads [62] Question: How does the company plan to enhance its research and development efforts? - The company plans to maintain ongoing investment in existing products while increasing focus on new product development and underlying technology [67]

深南电路 20240627_原文 2024年06月27日 23:32 发言人 00:00 这个TMTVI相关的中期策略会，我们这次很荣幸的请到了深南电路的两位领导，谢总和郭总为我们做一个 分享和交流。欢迎两位领导。首先请介绍一下，近期的经营情况。好的，收到。也非常感谢各位投资人能 够来参加本次交流。上面我是深南电路的IR郭家旭。 发言人 00:33 下面就由我为大家简单的回顾一下公司近期以来的整体的一些经营情况。首先从我们今年 3月份以来到至 今看的话，其实整个二季度看过公司的产能。如果是从生产经营层面看产能利用率的话，其实也是还是也 是是处于一个相对比较近两年相对较高的一个水平。如果是从分业务来去看的话，我们看到我们PC低的各 个工厂综合来看，它的加工率大概会在85到90之间。个别的一些工厂可能会到90 90以上这样一个相对 较高的水平。那这里面的话我们比比一季度来看，还是会有几个百分点的这样一个提升。这一方面也是因 为我们Q一首先是有这样一个春节假期的因素，Q2它是一个比较完整的这种生产季节。其次也是会看到 从下游的需求上面受到这种AI的这样一些因素驱动的一些。我们包括在有限的数有限疏通方面，光模块、 交 ...

速在整合后非常快。这个其实我觉得背后反映的一个逻辑就是公司在新疆在西藏都拿到了，新 疆在新区域这些区域都拿到了比较明确的一些在手订单。这个是我们觉得他可能比较有优势的 一个这个点，订单会比较充足。其实我们看他，因为其实每个季度就类似于机电建筑企业一样， 每个季度都会披露自己的这个新签订单的一个比较大的。比如说五个亿往上走或者两个亿往上 走的这种大的订单，其实看起来拆下来的话，绝大部分还是以一个新疆是统计了一下数据，可 能 60%往上走是来自于新疆的一些煤矿。所以它其实受益于这两年新这两三年新疆作为煤炭的 保供基地，全国煤炭保供基地，它这边受益的一个幅度还是非常明显的。 需求端它下游明报的下游 70%需求来自于矿山开采。矿山开采里面的话，金属矿可能会在各分 3 分之 1，就金属矿占 3 分之 1，煤矿占 3 分之 1，还有比如非金属矿占 3 分之 1。其余 30%的下 游应用里面，主要还是是基建，就比如说铁路、水利、水电这些为主。 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 发言人 12:13 发言人 13:30 个布局，去看他在新疆、西藏，然后包括海外的一个市场，我们是比较看好这一块的。因为前 ...