Industry and Company Overview * **Industry**: US Economy, North America * **Company**: Not specified, focus on broader economic analysis Key Points and Arguments 1. **Employment Report Preview**: The forecast for December payrolls is 150k, following November's 227k rise. The unemployment rate is expected to increase to 4.3% and average hourly earnings (AHE) to rise 0.3% [2]. 2. **Labor Market Trends**: The labor market is on solid footing but experiencing slower employment growth and cooling overall conditions in 2024. However, it is not softening as rapidly as it appeared last summer [7]. 3. **Retail Payrolls**: A rebound in retail payrolls is crucial for the December forecast. After a decline in November, retail employment is expected to rise by 10k, similar to the pattern seen in 2023 [9]. 4. **Labor Supply Uncertainty**: Slower immigration, particularly since July and August, is likely impacting payrolls and the unemployment rate. The exact timing and impact are difficult to estimate [8]. 5. **Industry Breakdown**: The forecasted payroll changes by industry show a mix of growth and decline across various sectors. Goods-producing industries are expected to see a decline, while service-producing industries are expected to see growth [22]. 6. **Average Hourly Earnings**: Forecasted to increase by 0.3% month-over-month and remain stable at 4.0% on a 12-month basis, indicating continued growth in aggregate labor market income outpacing inflation [23]. 7. **Unemployment Rate**: Expected to increase slightly to 4.3% in December, continuing its gradual uptrend. The labor force participation rate is expected to remain stable [24]. Other Important Content * **Exhibits**: The document includes several exhibits providing detailed data and analysis on various aspects of the labor market, including payroll changes, retail payrolls, immigration, and unemployment rate trends [3, 10, 15, 16, 22, 28, 29]. * **Disclosures**: The document includes a disclosure section outlining important information about the research, including conflicts of interest, valuation methodology, and risks associated with the recommendations [33-42].

Key Points **Industry/Company Involved**: - Tesla Inc (TSLA US) **Core Views and Arguments**: 1. **4Q24 Deliveries Missed**: Tesla's 4Q24 deliveries came in at 496k, 3% below the VA consensus. This missed the company's guidance of "slight growth in 2024" and raised concerns about the company's ability to achieve its ambitious 20-30% delivery growth target in 2025. [2] 2. **Production Weakness**: Production in 4Q24 was weak, down 7% YoY and 7% below deliveries. This could imply soft sales development into 1Q25. [2] 3. **Energy Storage Strength**: The Energy Storage business saw strong growth with 11GWh deployed in 4Q24, up 245% YoY and 60% QoQ. However, this was not enough to offset the auto weakness. [2] 4. **Sequential Weaker Earnings Expected**: TSLA is expected to report sequentially weaker earnings in 4Q24e, with the group gross margin down 100bps QoQ. [3] 5. **Uncertainty in Pre-revenue Opportunities**: The realization of pre-revenue opportunities, such as autonomous vehicles, remains uncertain due to regulatory approval and commercialization challenges. [3] 6. **Maintain Reduce Rating**: HSBC maintains a Reduce rating on TSLA with a target price of USD140.00, implying 65% downside to the current share price. [4] **Other Important Points**: 1. **Valuation**: The valuation approach used by HSBC is a 50:50 weighted average of DCF and peer multiples-based valuation. [4] 2. **Upside Risks**: Upside risks include the launch of new BEV models and market enthusiasm for Tesla's AI endeavors and associated projects. [4] 3. **Financial Ratios**: TSLA's financial ratios, such as PE, EV/EBITDA, and ROE, are compared to peers and industry benchmarks. [7] 4. **Price Relative**: TSLA's stock is compared to the S&P 500 and other tech peers in terms of valuation multiples. [18] 5. **Rating Distribution**: HSBC's rating distribution for long-term investment opportunities is presented, showing the percentage of ratings assigned to Buy, Hold, and Sell. [51] 6. **Share Price and Rating Changes**: TSLA's share price performance and rating history are discussed, showing changes over time. [52] 7. **Disclosures**: Important disclosures related to the report, including analyst certifications and potential conflicts of interest, are provided. [45-58] 8. **Disclaimer**: The report includes a disclaimer stating that the opinions contained within are based upon publicly available information and are subject to change without notice. [65]

Key Points Industry or Company Involved - **SMID Cap Software Companies**: The document focuses on a comparative valuation of SMID cap software companies, specifically within the vertical software and internet infrastructure universe. Core Views and Arguments - **Stock Performance**: The S&P index was down (-3%) week over week, with many covered stocks performing in line with or slightly underperforming the index. ALKT (-7%) was the greatest underperformer, while CCCS and SSNC were down only (-1%) [4]. - **Recent Events**: SS&C announced new SaaS releases for Alternatives customers across its Geneva, Eclipse, and OEMS solutions [4]. - **Recent Calls & Publications**: The document highlights Guidewire, Tyler, and Clearwater as top picks heading into 2025E [4]. - **Coverage Universe**: The document provides a table of covered companies, including their ticker, company name, JPM analyst, rating, price as of 12/31/2024, market cap, EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, EV/FCF, FCF Yield, and FCF Yield [6]. - **Verticals**: The document discusses various verticals, including Real Estate and Construction, Internet Infrastructure, Financial Services, Insurance Software, and Other Vertical Software Names [10-18]. - **Valuation**: The document provides valuation analysis for each vertical, comparing the covered companies to their peers and the broader market [10-18]. - **Comparables**: The document identifies comparable companies for each vertical and compares their valuation metrics to the covered companies [10-18]. Other Important Content - **Analyst Certification and Important Disclosures**: The document includes analyst certification and important disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest and the firm's relationship with covered companies [3, 21-25]. - **Coverage Universe**: The document provides a list of companies covered by J.P. Morgan's equity research team [30]. - **Equity Valuation and Risks**: The document outlines the valuation methodology and risks associated with covered companies or price targets [33]. - **Other Disclosures**: The document includes various other disclosures, such as legal entity responsible for the production and distribution of research, country-/region-specific disclosures, and general information about the research material [43-50].

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Derek R. Bingham +1(415)249-7435 | derek.bingham@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Brendan Corbett +1(415)249-7440 | brendan.corbett@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Varsha Venugopal +1(415)393-7554 | varsha.venugopal@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Brian Singer, CFA +1(212)902-8259 | brian.singer@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Evan Tylenda, CFA +44(20)7774-1153 | evan.tylenda@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Emma Jones +61(2)9320-1041 | emma.jones@gs.com Goldman Sachs Australia Pty ...

Summary of India Strategy Outlook Company/Industry Involved - Focus on the Indian economy and market outlook for 2025 Core Points and Arguments 1. **Investment Strategy Shift**: After a year of caution regarding macro and earnings risks, the recommendation is to start buying selectively in the Indian market [1][2][3] 2. **Economic Slowdown**: The Indian economy has shown signs of slowing down, with a depreciation of the currency and weak GDP numbers. The Nifty index is projected to reach 26,500 by the end of 2025, representing a 12% return [2][4][58] 3. **Market Corrections**: A significant market correction of approximately 9.8% has occurred, with the Indian Rupee (INR) depreciating by about 2.4%. The next quarter is critical as focus shifts back to growth [3][4] 4. **Historical Context**: The current economic situation is compared to 2005, where similar trends were observed. The expectation is for a recovery within 2-3 quarters, similar to past cycles [3][8][10] 5. **Government Capex**: Government capital expenditure has declined by 15% year-on-year until October, with only 42% of the target met. This mirrors fiscal prudence seen in previous cycles [22][4] 6. **Sector-Specific Views**: The recommendation is to be selective in sector investments, with Financials reduced in weight, while IT, Telecom, and Utilities are upgraded to Overweight. Healthcare is downgraded to Underweight due to valuation concerns [7][4] 7. **Domestic Investment Growth**: There is a notable increase in domestic investments, with household allocation to equities expected to rise to 15% this year, which may support market stability [50][48] 8. **Earnings Expectations**: FY26 is expected to mark a recovery in performance after a brief hiatus, with revenue and PAT growth anticipated to accelerate. However, there are concerns about optimistic earnings expectations slipping from FY25 to FY26 [58][59] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Credit Growth**: Credit growth has been stifled compared to previous cycles, with personal loans growing at a modest 12-16% recently, down from highs of 32-33% [38][39] 2. **Private Capex**: Unlike previous cycles, private sector participation in capital expenditure has been moderate, with the government taking a larger role in infrastructure spending [42][43] 3. **Geopolitical Uncertainties**: The potential impact of geopolitical situations, including U.S. political changes, is acknowledged as a factor that may weigh on market sentiment [3][57] 4. **Market Resilience**: The Indian market has shown resilience to foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows, with domestic investments playing a crucial role in supporting market stability [48][50] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the Indian economy and market outlook for 2025, highlighting both opportunities and risks for investors.

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 January 2, 2025 01:07 PM GMT Global Technology M Global Idea AI Supply Chain: CES Preview, Key Checkpoint for AI PC It remains to be seen whether the new features in AI PC at CES would lead to better graphic demand. Meanwhile, we see smaller possibility of NVIDIA's WoA AI PC chip launch (Computex more likely), as software compatibility may take more time. What to expect? CES is the largest consumer electronics trade show. In recent years, AI + IoT have been the key focus. For ot ...

Company and Industry Overview * **Company**: Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS) * **Industry**: Spirits and Liquor * **Date**: 2 January 2025 * **Event**: Preliminary results announcement for fiscal year 2024 Key Financial Highlights * **Revenue**: Rmb173.8bn, up 15.4% yoy * **Net Profit**: Rmb85.7bn, up 14.7% yoy * **Implied 4Q24 Revenue**: Rmb50.7bn, up 12.0% yoy * **Implied 4Q24 Net Profit**: Rmb24.9bn, up 13.8% yoy Revenue Breakdown * **Moutai Spirits**: Rmb145.8bn, up 15.2% yoy * **Series Spirits**: Rmb24.6bn, up 19.2% yoy Profit Margins * **Implied NPM**: 49.3%, down -0.3ppt yoy Production Volume * **Moutai Spirits**: 56.3k ton, -1.5% yoy * **Series Spirits**: 48.1k ton, up 12% yoy Key Developments * **Wholesale Price**: Original case Feitian Moutai's wholesale price/bottle maintained flattish at Rmb2,290. Unpacked Feitian Moutai's wholesale price/bottle decreased by Rmb10 to Rmb2,220. * **Wholesaler Quota**: Management intends to adjust the wholesaler quota of Feitian Moutai and various Moutai spirits SKUs to enhance channel penetration. * **Series Spirits Sales Target**: Management targets sales growth of series spirits in 2025 of not lower than the listco's average top line growth in the past five years (i.e. 14% sales CAGR in 2018-23). * **Marketing Expenses**: Management will increase series spirits related marketing expenses by Rmb1.5bn in 2025 (50%+ vs 2024). Valuation and Rating * **Stock Price**: Trading at 20x 2025 P/E with 3.8% dividend yield * **Rating**: Reiterate Buy rating * **Price Target**: Rmb1,990 based on a 26.5x 2025E P/E Key Risks * **Regulation Changes**: Potential regulation changes such as a consumption tax rate hike * **Environmental Pollution** * **Macroeconomic Recovery**: A slower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery * **Capacity Constraints** * **US Rate Hikes**: More volatility in US rate hikes given the negative correlation between Moutai's P/E and the US 10-yr bond yield

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Hong Kong retail sales** sector, highlighting a significant decline in sales figures and the performance of various retail categories. Key Points 1. **Retail Sales Performance** - Hong Kong's retail sales fell by **8.3% year-on-year (oya)** in November, aligning with J.P. Morgan's forecast of **-8.6%** and significantly worse than the market consensus of **-5.4%**. This decline widened from **4.8%** in October [1][2][3] - For the first **11 months of 2024**, retail sales volume decreased by **8.7% oya**, while in value terms, sales dropped by **7.3% oya** [1][2] 2. **Monthly Trends** - Seasonally adjusted retail sales volume showed a slight increase of **0.3% month-on-month (m/m)**, marking the third consecutive month of gains. The underlying trend growth improved to **9.7%** on a **3-month annualized rate** by November, following a prolonged contraction [1][2] 3. **Sector-Specific Performance** - **Electronics and consumer durable goods** led the recovery in September and October but saw a sharp decline of **21.5% oya** in November. This followed previous gains of **4.7%** and **18.7%** in the prior months [2] - Conversely, **jewelry, watches, and valuable gifts** experienced solid growth, with retail sales increasing by **16.5% m/m** in November, building on a **7.5%** rise in October [2] 4. **Economic Factors Impacting Retail Sales** - The strength of the **Hong Kong dollar (HKD)** and a prolonged high-interest rate environment are expected to continue exerting pressure on local retail sales. The anticipated policy changes following the U.S. elections, including tariff hikes on Chinese exports and tax cuts, may lead to higher inflation and slower Federal Reserve rate cuts [3] - The resumption of the **Individual Visit Scheme** for Shenzhen residents may attract more tourists, but the overall impact on retail sales is expected to be limited due to soft domestic consumption in mainland China [3] 5. **Consumer Sentiment and Economic Outlook** - An incomplete recovery in the labor market, muted wage growth, and a negative wealth effect from the ongoing housing market correction suggest that local private consumption will remain under pressure in 2025 [3] Additional Insights - The report indicates a divergence in performance across major retail sectors, with some categories like clothing and footwear showing modest gains, while others like consumer durables are struggling [2] - The overall economic environment, including external factors such as U.S. policy changes, is likely to have a significant impact on Hong Kong's retail landscape moving forward [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the U.S. stock market and its performance amidst the political landscape shaped by President-elect Donald Trump's policies, particularly regarding deregulation and tax cuts [2][8][21]. Core Insights - The U.S. stock market ended 2024 on a bullish note, with the MSCI USA accounting for 67.25% of the MSCI All Country World Index [5]. - The S&P 500 price-to-sales ratio reached a peak of 3.26x in early December 2024, ending the year at 3.15x, indicating high valuations despite slowing earnings growth [5][40]. - There is a contradiction in Trump's policy agenda, where inflationary measures like tariffs may counteract the anticipated productivity-driven growth from AI and deregulation [8][9]. - The announcement of Elon Musk co-heading the Department of Government Efficiency aims to cut $2 trillion from the federal budget, which could have significant market implications [13][14]. Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation data is becoming critical, with both headline and core CPI rising by 0.3% month-on-month in November 2024, indicating a potential shift in inflation trends [26][27]. - Tax revenue growth was healthy, rising by 9.6% year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2024, but fiscal pressures remain high with net interest payments and entitlements accounting for 95% of total government receipts [18][21]. Investment Opportunities and Risks - The construction of manufacturing facilities in the U.S. has surged, with private construction spending for manufacturing rising from $7.6 billion in January 2022 to $21 billion in October 2024 [22]. - However, there is a lack of corresponding growth in machinery imports, which only increased by 29% during the same period [22]. - The dominance of Big Tech stocks in the S&P 500 raises concerns about the monetization of AI, with significant capital expenditures from major players like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta Platforms [31][38]. Market Dynamics - The S&P 500's operating PE ratio rose by 13% from 22.3x at the end of 2023 to 25.2x at the end of 2024, driven more by multiple expansion than earnings growth [40][41]. - The potential for a yield curve control policy could lead to a weaker U.S. dollar and benefit emerging market equities, contrasting with the current strong performance of U.S. equities [44][45]. Conclusion - The U.S. stock market is navigating a complex landscape of high valuations, inflationary pressures, and significant policy changes under the new administration. Investors should remain vigilant regarding the implications of fiscal policies and the evolving dynamics of the tech sector.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Hardware & Networking** industry, with specific attention to companies like **Apple**, **Dell**, **Cisco**, and various optical and networking firms. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Apple's Stock Resilience**: Apple is expected to show resilience in its stock performance throughout 2025, particularly during the iPhone 17 cycle, as investors anticipate the benefits of the AI cycle. The premium earnings multiple is likely to remain intact until clearer signs of Edge AI proliferation emerge, benefiting consumer devices like smartphones and PCs [2][3]. 2. **Edge AI as a Major Investment Theme**: Edge AI is projected to remain a core investment theme by the end of 2025, contrasting with the uncertain sentiment surrounding AI infrastructure for hyperscalers. The demand for AI applications at the Edge is still in its infancy, presenting significant opportunities for development [3][4]. 3. **Efficiency and Cost Savings from AI**: The benefits of AI investments for enterprises are expected to be primarily measured in terms of efficiency and cost savings rather than direct revenue increases by the end of 2025 [3][4]. 4. **Hardware Companies' Favorable Environment**: The enterprise AI infrastructure environment is anticipated to become more favorable for hardware companies by the end of 2025, with a gradual shift towards on-premises infrastructure, benefiting companies like Dell and Cisco [4][5]. 5. **Investor Sentiment Challenges for AI-Levered Suppliers**: Companies heavily invested in AI may face challenges in investor sentiment during the first half of the year due to uncertainty regarding revenue momentum. Confirmation of momentum is expected to come with improved supply and guidance from companies in the second quarter [5][7]. 6. **Tighter Share Price Performance Dispersion**: A tighter dispersion of share price performance is expected in 2025 compared to 2024, as investors seek value in lagging stocks amidst a recovery in demand drivers [6][7]. 7. **Consolidation in Cyclical Markets**: There is an expectation of consolidation among equipment suppliers in cyclical markets such as Telco, Enterprise, and Cable/MSO, driven by a cyclical recovery in customer spending [8][9]. 8. **Favorable Outlook for Contract Manufacturers**: Contract manufacturers are likely to be viewed more favorably by investors compared to OEMs due to their leverage to AI-led growth and lower associated risks [9][10]. 9. **Tariff Headwinds Less Impactful**: Concerns regarding tariff-related headwinds are expected to be less impactful than previously feared, with companies under coverage likely to end the year with higher earnings multiples [10][11]. 10. **Challenges in Autonomous and Electric Vehicle Technologies**: The commercial success of autonomous and electric vehicle technologies remains uncertain, with potential challenges arising from a lowered growth outlook and uncertain vehicle model launch roadmaps [11][12]. Additional Important Points - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring guidance from optical and networking companies like Coherent, Lumentum, and Arista as key indicators for investor sentiment and market performance [7][8]. - The overall sentiment in the hardware and networking sector is cautious but optimistic, with a focus on the evolving landscape of AI and its implications for various companies within the industry [3][4][5].