证券研究报告 | 行业深度 | 房地产 房地产 报告日期：2024年05月02日 打破负循环，探寻修复路径 ——房地产行业深度报告 投资要点 行业评级: 看好(维持) ❑ 本轮房地产链式降温，政策“小步快走”难破负循环 分析师：杨凡 2024年是地产销售和投资增速持续下行的第三年，本轮周期下行从二手房到新 执业证书号：S1230521120001 房逐步降温，房企受销售下滑和资金收紧双重制约，行业形成“链式降温”和多 yangfan02@stocke.com.cn 方负循环效应。我们总结市场目前有三个负循环：1）购房者对交房的担忧和对 未来房地产市场的弱预期，即购房者预期的负循环；2）房企出险导致信用受损 研究助理：吴贵伦 且波及其他同行，房企信用的负循环；3）金融机构对房企更为谨慎，实质性落 w uguilun@stocke.com.cn 地支持受限，即金融机构预期的负循环。回顾2022-2023年，房地产放松政策 相关报告 虽次数多，但受到调整幅度有限或实质性落地支持受限等因素的影响，行业负循 环难以打破。 1 《新指引，新信号》 ❑ 2024年打破负循环已迈出重要一步，但仍需更多实质性政策发力 2024 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号：水木纪要 海外市场观察 证券研究报告2024.05.12 美国二次通胀风险有多大？ 2024年5月6日～12日 刘刚，CFA 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080512030003 SFC CE Ref: AVH867 kevin.liu@cicc.com.cn 李雨婕分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080523030005 SFC CE Ref: BRG962 yujie.li@cicc.com.cn 更多一 去年底以来，市场对美联储降息预期的“折返跑”很大程度上来自通胀的波动。可以说，接下来的一两个通胀数据如何， 基本就决定了年内的降息节奏，毕竟当前降息不是为了应对经济的恶化（《美联储降息的门槛》）。一季度美国经济数据如 就业、通胀和PMI均持续超预期，加上同期大宗商品价格大涨，不仅导致降息预期回落，甚至在二次通胀担忧下，加息的 声音也再度出现。然而进入4月，利率走高的反身性逐渐显现，房地产、PMI、非农等数据又接连放缓，降息预期也再度 升至年内两次（9月和12 月)周这种正反两个方向超预期数据“扎推”且来回摇摆的现象其实并不奇怪，恰恰是我们此 前提到的金融条件 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of $1.75 billion, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4.3%, with a gross margin of 13.7%, down 2.7 percentage points [1] - EBITDA for Q1 was $887 million, with an EBITDA margin of 50.7% [1] - The total assets stood at $48.2 billion, with total liabilities of $17.3 billion and total equity of $30.8 billion [1] - The company plans for Q2 2024 sales revenue to grow by 5% to 7% and expects a gross margin of 9% to 11% [1][2] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a production of 1.79 million 8-inch wafers in Q1, a 7% increase quarter-over-quarter [2] - Revenue from wafer sales constituted 93% of total revenue, with other income making up 7% [2] - The revenue breakdown by application showed smartphones and consumer electronics each accounted for 31%, while computers and tablets accounted for 18% [2] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue distribution by region remained stable, with China accounting for 82%, North America for 15%, and Eurasia for 3% [2] - The company noted an increase in customer inventory levels and a rise in demand from domestic clients, contributing to improved sales performance [2] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on expanding its production capacity and enhancing market share, particularly in the integrated circuit manufacturing sector [1] - It aims to prioritize cash flow for core business activities, including capacity expansion and R&D, foregoing profit distribution for 2023 [1] - The company is developing technology platforms for various applications, including high-voltage drives and image sensors, to cater to diverse market needs [2] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management indicated that the integrated circuit industry is recovering, with improved customer inventory and demand [2] - The company expects to exceed the average growth of comparable companies and is optimistic about maintaining growth in the first half of the year [3] - There are concerns about competitive pricing pressures due to increased local production capacity in China [3] Other Important Information - The company is experiencing depreciation pressure due to high capital expenditures aimed at expanding 12-inch capacity [3] - The management acknowledged the need for a balanced global supply chain and anticipates continued investment in local capacities [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does product mix affect ASP and will price declines slow down in the coming quarters? - The ASP is influenced by both price trends and product mix changes. The company has faced production bottlenecks but maintains that overall ASP has not significantly declined since February [4] Question: What specific consumer products are expected to gain market share? - The company noted increased demand for low-power Bluetooth IoT and MCUs, driven by a recovering international consumer market and upcoming sports events [4] Question: What is the contribution of the 28nm process to the company? - The company has been producing 28nm since 2014 and continues to expand its capacity due to strong customer demand across various sectors [5] Question: What is the company's outlook on the global wafer foundry industry growth? - The company aims to exceed the average growth of comparable firms and is optimistic about maintaining a strong order book for the upcoming quarters [6] Question: Will capital expenditures continue throughout the year? - The company expects to maintain capital expenditures in the second half of the year, aligning with customer demand [7] Question: How does the company view the global semiconductor market's future? - The company acknowledges a projected growth in the semiconductor market, driven by new applications and demand, but cautions about uneven growth across different sectors [8]

参会嘉宾:实控人、联席首席执行官、总裁、首席财务官、董事会秘书 公司财务情况介绍 各项指标保持稳健增长，2023 年收入 114.11 亿元（+23.52%）；归母净利润 19.74 亿元（+19.21%）；扣 非净利润 16.65 亿元（+23.38%）。23Q4 收入 39.78 亿元（+17.72%）；归母净利润 9.10 亿元 （+20.17%）；扣非净利润 8.36 亿元（+37.55%）。 2024Q1 收入 23.50 亿元（+6.22%）；归母净利润 3.63 亿元（+10.20%）；扣非净利润 3.00 亿元 （+8.52%）。其中，海外业务同比增长近 50%，国际市场收入占比超 15%。我们认为，24 年伴随各地医疗 设备更新细则政策逐步落地，及各级医疗机构高质量建设等需求带动，叠加海外持续拓展，公司全年增长动 力有望维持。 2023 年国内市场收入 97.33 亿元（+19.37%），国际市场收入 16.78 亿元（+54.72%），保持高速增长态 势，国际市场占收比提升至 14.7%。 2024 年一季度公司实现营业收入 23.5 亿元，同比增长 6.22%，实现归母净利润 3.03 ...

Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - In 2023, the total sales of new energy vehicles reached 9.587 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35.8%, with a market share of 31.6% [115] - The total automotive sales in China surpassed 30 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 11.6% [115] - By the end of 2023, the number of new energy vehicles in China reached 20.41 million, accounting for 6.07% of the total vehicle ownership [118] Business Line Data and Key Indicators Changes - BYD sold 3.02 million new energy vehicles in 2023, becoming the global leader in new energy passenger vehicle sales [21] - The number of new energy passenger vehicle brands selling over 300,000 units increased from 4 in 2022 to 7 in 2023 [30] - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles is expected to reach 15% in 2024, with sales exceeding 600,000 units [78] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - In 2023, China's new energy vehicle exports reached 1.203 million units, a growth rate of 77.6% [15] - The global new energy vehicle sales in 2023 were 14.653 million units, with China contributing over 60% [21] - The market concentration in the new energy vehicle sector increased, with the CR10 reaching 77.9% in 2023 [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The industry is transitioning towards a focus on optimizing existing structures rather than expansion, with an emphasis on local production and overseas brand collaboration [55][4] - Companies are expected to enhance product differentiation and innovate business models to improve core competitiveness [49][66] - The strategy includes a shift towards electric and intelligent vehicles, with significant investments in battery technology and smart manufacturing [85][106] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management highlighted that the global automotive industry is undergoing a significant transformation, with China becoming a key player in the new energy vehicle market [21][22] - The competitive landscape is expected to intensify, with a focus on technological innovation and consumer demand for intelligent features [60][64] - The outlook for 2024 remains positive, with expectations of continued growth in new energy vehicle sales and market share [115][118] Other Important Information - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in second and third-tier cities exceeded 50%, indicating strong growth potential in these markets [118] - The automotive industry is expected to see a surge in new models, with over 1,100 new models launched in 2023, 70% of which are pure electric [39] - The investment in the new energy vehicle sector has exceeded 600 billion yuan since 2020, indicating strong capital interest [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the key factors driving the growth of new energy vehicles in China? - The growth is driven by supportive government policies, technological advancements, and increasing consumer demand for electric vehicles [123] Question: How does the company plan to maintain its competitive edge in the market? - The company aims to enhance product differentiation, accelerate the launch of new models, and innovate business strategies to adapt to changing consumer preferences [49][66] Question: What challenges does the company foresee in the upcoming years? - The company anticipates challenges related to market saturation, increased competition, and the need for continuous innovation in technology and consumer engagement [60][64]

Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 781.12 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50.04% [7] - The total profit reached 324.13 billion, with net profit at 279.56 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.83% [7] - Total assets amounted to 5719.43 billion, up 74.76% year-on-year, while net assets increased by 8.45% to 2122.99 billion [7] Business Line Data and Key Indicators Changes - Hydropower generation reached 2762.63 billion kWh in 2023, an increase of 140.15 billion kWh or 5.34% year-on-year [1][4] - The company has over 30 pumped storage projects under tracking, with a total installed capacity of nearly 42 million kW [1][4] - In the renewable energy sector, distributed photovoltaic and energy storage projects both exceeded 1 million kW in scale [1][5] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - International business profits exceeded 2.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 51%, with successful acquisitions in Peru and ongoing projects in Pakistan [1][6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to achieve a hydropower generation target of 3088 billion kWh in 2024, with domestic hydropower stations expected to exceed 3074 billion kWh [1][13] - Expansion plans include increasing the installed capacity of Xiluodu and Xiangjiaba hydropower stations [1][13] - The company is focusing on developing pumped storage and enhancing its renewable energy base [1][13][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that despite challenges such as reduced water inflow, the company expects significant improvements in generation capacity due to optimized dispatching [16] - The company is committed to maintaining a high cash dividend policy, with a proposed cash dividend of 200.64 billion for 2023 [3][18] Other Important Information - The company has established an ESG management framework to enhance its sustainability practices [8][9] - It has implemented over 400 rural revitalization projects, investing over 2 billion [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the expected scale of R&D expenses and the main business synergy model? - The company emphasizes high-tech content, economic efficiency, resource efficiency, low environmental impact, and human resource advantages in its R&D investments [16] Question: What is the growth source of the Ludus company and the sustainability of overseas business performance? - The international business revenue exceeded 2.1 billion, with stable growth expected due to the nature of public utility operations in Peru [16] Question: What is the outlook for future water inflow and generation capacity? - Current water inflow is near the historical average, and generation capacity is expected to improve significantly [16] Question: What is the progress of pumped storage project construction? - There are currently 2.4 million kW of pumped storage under construction, with an additional 4.2 million kW planned [16] Question: What are the company's specific investment arrangements? - The company will focus on low-risk, stable-return investments, particularly in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River [16][17] Question: What is the current status of renewable energy installations in 2023? - The company has successfully integrated nearly 2 million kW of renewable energy projects [17] Question: What is the future investment layout in Latin America? - The company completed its first renewable energy asset acquisition in Peru, establishing a complementary generation structure [17] Question: What is the capacity of the hydropower unit in Peru and its operational timeline? - The company operates the Santa Teresa 1 hydropower station in Peru with a capacity of 100,000 kW, operational since September 2015 [17] Question: What are the expansion plans for this year? - Expansion projects for Xiangjiaba and Gezhouba hydropower stations are underway [17] Question: What is the source of the significant increase in operating cash flow in 2023? - The increase in cash flow is attributed to the recovery of electricity payments [17] Question: How does the company view its investments in the Yangtze Protection ETF? - The company maintains that these investments align with its strategic goals and support the high-quality development of the Yangtze Economic Belt [17] Question: Will the dividend payout ratio increase after reducing debt? - The company has set a minimum cash dividend policy of 50% of distributable profits, with a current payout ratio of approximately 74% [18] Question: What is the overall interest-bearing debt cost rate? - The company has successfully reduced its financing cost rate and debt scale, with a notable decrease in 2023 [19][20]

【摘要】 经营业绩概览： 1）装机：截至2023年底，公司清洁能源装机容量2752.79万千瓦，水电装机 2559.98万千 瓦，新能源装机 192.81万千瓦。 2）发电量：全年完成发电量1070.61亿千瓦时，水电发电量1052.64 亿千瓦时，新能源发电 17.98亿千瓦时。 3）利用小时数：发电设备利用小时3968.70小时，相较于同行业3136.25小时超出832.45小 时。 境外电站： 1）瑞丽江一级电站：装机 60 万千瓦，是中国在缅甸投资的最大的水电项目。 2）桑河二级水电站：装机容量40 万千瓦，占柬埔寨全国总发电装机容量超20%，是柬埔寨境 内最大的水电站。 3）截至 2023 年，累计发电量 411.38亿千瓦时，实现利润 45.82 亿元。。 24年华能水电光伏电站投资计划 2024年公司预计开工和续建新能源项目84个，预计投产309万千瓦，新能源项目计划投资 139.91亿元。 【领导致辞】 随着西部大开发战略全面实施，公司应运而生，历经 25 年砥砺奋进，从无到有、从小到大、 从弱到强、从强到优，公司发展呈现了六个鲜明的特色：一是龙头示范有引领，公司总装机 2752 万千瓦，总资 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The semiconductor industry has reached a turning point, with demand exceeding supply, leading to a projected annual growth of approximately 20% for the company [1][3] - In Q1 2024, the company reported sales revenue of $1.75 billion, a 4.3% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 19.7% increase year-over-year, with a gross margin of 13.7%, exceeding guidance [11][14] - Capital expenditures for Q1 2024 were $2.235 billion, slightly down from $2.340 billion in Q4 2023 [13][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue by application in Q1 2024 was as follows: smartphones 31.2%, computers and tablets 17.5%, consumer electronics 30.9%, IoT and wearables 13.2%, and industrial and automotive 7.2% [12] - The revenue contribution from 12-inch wafers was 75.6%, while 8-inch wafers accounted for 24.4% [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has established itself as the second-largest pure foundry globally, surpassing UMC and GlobalFoundries, with a 20% year-over-year revenue increase [2] - The revenue from the Chinese market accounted for 81.6%, while the U.S. contributed 14.9% and the Eurasian region 3.5% [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has shifted its growth guidance to exceed the average of its peers, indicating increased confidence in market recovery and demand [1][14] - The focus remains on expanding advanced process capacities, with a capital expenditure plan of $7.5 billion for 2023 and potentially over $8 billion for 2024 [5] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management emphasized the strong recovery in demand, particularly in consumer electronics and AI applications, with expectations for continued growth in Q2 2024 [3][14] - The company noted that inventory levels among customers have significantly decreased, leading to urgent orders for replenishment [7] Other Important Information - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve as capacity utilization increases, with a target to exceed 60% [8] - The company has a strong customer base, with the largest customer contributing approximately 15% of total revenue [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for the semiconductor industry? - Management expressed optimism about the semiconductor industry's recovery, citing strong demand in consumer electronics and AI applications [3] Question: How does the company plan to manage capacity? - The company plans to continue expanding its advanced process capacities while maintaining a focus on efficient utilization of existing resources [5] Question: What are the expectations for revenue growth in 2024? - The company aims for revenue growth to exceed the average of its peers, with a strong performance anticipated in Q2 2024 [14]

通策医疗交流20240509 公司当前的经营状况如何，是否有所改善? Q1: A1:当前，公司的经营情况正在稳步向好，我们已经度过了最艰 难的时期，正处于逐步恢复的阶段。各项业务正有序开展，为公 司的未来发展奠定坚实基础。 Q2:公司在发展战略上有哪些具体规划，尤其是在省外市场拓展 方面? A2:我们的战略规划中，省外市场拓展占据了重要位置。计划通 过一系列的体外发展手段，包括但不限于收购、并购和加盟，来 加速市场布局。我们已经在武汉、西安和成都等地进行了初步试 点，以验证市场策略的有效性。在选择合作伙伴时，我们更看重 其在当地的品牌口碑和医疗团队的专业素质，而不仅仅是其现有 的市场规模，确保每一步扩张都稳健而高质量。 ...

直销，大量集中于客户端的话，展示销售额会还好，昱能模式会堵在海外仓库，所以首先 会找容易爆发销售下跌或者成长放缓的现象，这是去年出现的。现在第二季度微逆转整个 板块的销售在数据来讲恢复不错，台数与毛利率都还是会恢复的不错。第二季度预计环比 也会有增长，大概 10~20%的增长。动能会持续存在，MLPE 板块，除了工商储能，这个板 块里面应该有 30%左右的增长，经营目标应该是在 18 个亿左右。 Q：今年市场的竞争， 尤其是 MLPE 板块，毛利率趋势，还有定价策略会发生什么变化？ A：MLPE 应用场景分了 几类，其中微光储这一个板块的应用场景，国内微逆企业是充分参与的甚至是主导的板 块，因此这个板块竞争会比较激烈，户储这一块目前来讲还是依赖于专业的光储渠道来做 的，相对来讲有比较强的品牌跟一个渠道管理的效应。包括工商储能这一块还是跟以往差 不多，竞争态势不会有太大的变化，利润率与价格压力这一块相对少一点，这个问题的回 答要分板块来讲。 Diy 板块会接力一点，其他几个板块今年应该还是几家传统主导企业继 续主导。 Q：一季度销量接近 25 万，微光储这一块销量占比有多少，最近正好德国法案 也公告了，后续这一 ...