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永利澳门(01128.HK):永利皇宫新主席俱乐部开业有望带来强劲的春节预定量
Ge Long Hui· 2026-02-14 14:45
Core Viewpoint - Wynn Macau's Q4 2025 performance fell short of Visible Alpha consensus expectations, with net revenue of $968 million, a year-on-year increase of 4% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3%, recovering to 87% of Q4 2019 levels [1] Performance Review - Q4 2025 adjusted property EBITDA was $271 million, down 7% year-on-year and down 12% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 78% of Q4 2019 levels, which was below the $298 million consensus expectation [1] - The decline in total gaming revenue market share from 13.0% in Q3 2025 to 12.0% in Q4 2025 contributed to the underperformance [1] - The win rate was below expectations, and daily operating costs along with the reinvestment rate at Wynn Palace were relatively high [1] Development Trends - Based on hotel booking outlook, the company anticipates a strong performance during the 2026 Spring Festival, aided by the new 63,000 square feet Chairman's Club gaming area at Wynn Palace [1] - Strong business trends are expected to continue into 2026, with January 2026 business volume exceeding that of Q4 2026 [1] - Despite a competitive marketing rebate environment in the Macau gaming industry, the overall situation has stabilized, with the high-end segment continuing to drive industry growth [1] - Management believes AI will have a dual positive impact on demand growth (wealth creation for customers) and cost control (AI-based reinvestment rates, operational cost efficiency, and product visibility) [1] - Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to be between $400 million and $450 million, with some projects pending government approval [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains EBITDA forecasts for 2026 and 2027, currently trading at 7x 2026e EV/EBITDA [2] - The company maintains an outperform rating and a target price of HKD 7.20, corresponding to 8x 2026e EV/EBITDA, indicating an 18% upside from the current stock price [2]
中国东航(600115.SH):1月客运运力投入同比下降3.54%
Ge Long Hui· 2026-02-14 14:26
2026年1月,本公司未引进飞机,退出1架B737系列飞机。截至2026年1月末,本公司合计运营825架飞 机。 格隆汇2月13日丨中国东航(600115.SH)公布,公司2026年1月客运运力投入(按可用座公里计)同比下 降3.54%;旅客周转量(按客运人公里计)同比下降1.03%;客座率为85.01%,同比上升2.16个百分点。 2026年1月货邮周转量(按货邮载运吨公里计)同比上升8.33%。 ...
康耐特光学(02276.HK)重大事项点评:依视路陆逊梯卡公布25Q4业绩 持续看好智能眼镜行业发展
Ge Long Hui· 2026-02-14 14:21
机构:华创证券 研究员:刘一怡 事项: 智能眼镜催化频频,持续看好公司卡位优势。公司积极布局智能眼镜赛道,海外客户合作项目数量持续 增加,现有项目稳步推进,个别重点项目工作重心从前期的产品功能实现和技术路线验证,转向下一步 的扩大生产规模;同时,国内客户个别重点项目已实现产品交付,终端用户反馈良好。近期Meta 上调 Ray-Ban 产能、千问大模型升级,智能眼镜生态硬件协同成型,持续放量可期。 投资建议:镜片制造龙头企业,积极培育智能眼镜第二成长曲线。康耐特光学深耕眼镜制造行业,内外 销齐头并进,结构升级有望带动盈利能力持续改善。 目前公司已和多家头部3C 龙头合作布局智能眼镜,成长可期。考虑到智能眼镜产业链发展提速叠加公 司产品结构稳步向上,我们预计公司25-27 年归母净利润分别为5.6/7.0/8.7 亿元,对应PE 为51/41/33X。 参考可比公司估值,给予26 年估值为43X,维持目标价至69.36 港元,维持"强推"评级。 风险提示:智能眼镜发展不及预期、国内渠道拓展不及预期、行业竞争加剧。 根据公告,固定汇率口径下,依视路陆逊梯卡2025 年实现销售收入285 亿欧元,同比+11%;25Q ...
网易云音乐(09899.HK):盈利稳步增长 AI赋能算法迭代
Ge Long Hui· 2026-02-14 14:21
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a total revenue of 7.76 billion RMB for 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 2%, while the adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 68% to 2.86 billion RMB, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 2.836 billion RMB [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The gross profit for 2025 was 2.77 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year growth of 3.3%, with a gross margin of 35.7%, an increase of 2 percentage points [1] - Operating profit reached 1.62 billion RMB, up 39% year-over-year, with an operating margin of 21%, an increase of 6 percentage points [1] - The company ended 2025 with cash and bank deposits totaling 13.6 billion RMB [1] Group 2: Business Segments - Online music business revenue was 5.994 billion RMB, showing a year-over-year increase of 12% [1] - Subscription revenue grew by 13.3% to 5.052 billion RMB, driven by an increase in membership scale, although ARPU dilution from changes in membership structure offset some growth [1] - Non-subscription revenue reached 940 million RMB, a year-over-year increase of 5%, while social entertainment revenue declined by 32% to 1.765 billion RMB [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing user experience by expanding its music library and iterating algorithms, maintaining a DAU/MAU ratio above 30% [1] - The introduction of Korean labels and the addition of Chinese songs and film soundtracks aim to strengthen the rap and Western music categories [1] - Over 1 million independent musicians have uploaded more than 5.6 million tracks to the library [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - For 2026 and 2027, revenue is projected to reach 8.539 billion RMB and 9.323 billion RMB, representing year-over-year growth of 10% and 9% respectively [2] - Non-GAAP net profit for 2026 and 2027 is expected to be 2.206 billion RMB and 2.561 billion RMB [2] - The company repurchased 910,000 shares for a total of 14.99 million HKD, indicating confidence in its financial position [2]
NETEASE CLOUD MUSIC(9899.HK):2H25 REVENUE MISS ON SOFT NON-SUBSCRIPTIONBUSINESS; INTACT FY26 EARNINGS GROWTH OUTLOOK
Ge Long Hui· 2026-02-14 14:21
Core Viewpoint - NetEase Cloud Music reported a slight decline in total revenue for FY25, but adjusted net profit showed significant growth, indicating a mixed financial performance with concerns over revenue growth in online music services and overall gross profit margin [1]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for FY25 decreased by 2% YoY to RMB7.76 billion, slightly below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of RMB7.91 billion [1]. - Adjusted net profit increased by 68% YoY to RMB2.86 billion, aligning with consensus estimates [1]. - Adjusted operating profit grew by 32% YoY to RMB1.73 billion, excluding the impact of deferred income tax credit [1]. Revenue Breakdown - Online music services revenue grew by 8% YoY to RMB3.0 billion in 2H25, a slowdown from 16% YoY growth in 1H25 [2]. - Membership subscription revenue rose by 12% YoY to RMB2.6 billion in 2H25, driven by subscriber base growth but offset by a decline in monthly ARPPU [2]. - Non-subscription music revenue fell by 7% YoY in 2H25, primarily due to decreased revenue from digital album sales [2]. - Revenue from social entertainment and others dropped by 17% YoY to RMB905 million in 2H25, although it stabilized with a 5% HoH growth [2]. Margin Analysis - Overall gross profit margin (GPM) increased by 2.7 percentage points YoY but declined by 1.4 percentage points HoH to 35.0% in 2H25, mainly due to reduced revenue from higher-margin non-subscription business [3]. - Adjusted operating margin improved by 4.6 percentage points YoY to 21.1% in 2H25, attributed to operating leverage and effective expense control [3]. Future Outlook - For FY26E, total revenue is forecasted to increase by 8% YoY to RMB8.4 billion, driven by solid growth in the online music business [4]. - Music subscription revenue is expected to rise by 13% YoY to RMB5.7 billion in FY26E, supported by growth in both subscriber base and ARPPU [4]. - Adjusted operating profit is projected to grow by 19% YoY in FY26E, with operating profit margin increasing by 2 percentage points YoY [4].
晶苑国际(02232.HK):订单品类扩充 产能效率提升 制造龙头稳健成长
Ge Long Hui· 2026-02-14 14:19
业绩预计持续健康增长。我们预计2025-2027 年公司收入分别为27.4/29.8/32.5亿美元,同比分别 +11%/+9%/+9%,主要系产能扩张和品类丰富驱动。同时伴随着产业链效率+订单结构优化,预计未来 公司盈利质量平稳有升,我们预计2025~2027 年公司归母净利润分别为2.32/2.65/2.97 亿美元,同比分别 增长15.7%/14.2%/12.0%,利润增速预计持续快于收入。 高分红具备吸引力。公司现金流稳定,2017~2023 年公司派息比例多在30%~50%之间,2024 年派息比 例提升至70%,公司表示基于目前对于未来现金流的预期,我们估计未来股息派付仍有提升空间。 投资建议。我们认为公司合理股价区间9.15~9.57 港元,对应2026 年PE 为12.6~13.2 倍((前前股价对 应 2026 年 PE 为 10.3 倍),空间 23%~29%。结合 DCF模型及公司相对估值水平,首次覆盖,给予"买 入"评级。 风险提示:产能扩张风险;行业竞争加剧风险;经济环境及订单波动风险;测算误差风险。 机构:国盛证券 研究员:杨莹/侯子夜/王佳伟 公司是服饰制造行业龙头之一,未来业务 ...
百威亚太(1876.HK)2025年年报点评:25年业绩继续承压 分红金额保持平稳
Ge Long Hui· 2026-02-14 14:12
Core Insights - Budweiser APAC achieved a total revenue of $5.764 billion in 2025, with an organic year-on-year decline of 6.1% [1] - The normalized EBITDA for 2025 was $1.588 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 9.8% [1] - In Q4 2025, revenue reached $1.073 billion, with an organic year-on-year decline of 4.2% [1] Revenue and EBITDA Analysis - For the full year 2025, the company reported a sales volume of 7.9658 million kiloliters, down 6.0% year-on-year, while Q4 sales volume was 1.3518 million kiloliters, down 0.7% [1] - The revenue per hectoliter for the full year 2025 decreased by 0.2%, and for Q4, it decreased by 3.5% [1] - The gross margin for 2025 was 50.1%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points year-on-year, while the normalized EBITDA margin was 27.6%, a decrease of 1.13 percentage points year-on-year [1] Regional Performance - In the Western Asia-Pacific region, Q4 2025 sales volume showed a slight organic growth of 0.1%, but revenue and revenue per hectoliter declined by 5.6% and 5.7% respectively, with normalized EBITDA down 40.0% [2] - India emerged as a growth highlight, with high-end and super high-end products accounting for over two-thirds of total revenue and contributing over 20% to revenue growth [2] - In the Eastern Asia-Pacific region, Q4 2025 revenue showed a slight organic decline of 0.6%, with sales volume down 3.7% but revenue per hectoliter up 3.2% [2] China Market Focus - The Chinese market faced continued pressure, with Q4 2025 sales volume down 3.9% due to weak on-premise channels and delayed Lunar New Year shipments [3] - The company plans to increase investment in channel and product mix expansion, with Q4 2025 revenue down 11.4% year-on-year [3] - The company aims to revitalize its market share in China as a core focus for 2026, with strategies including enhancing high-end and digital channel penetration [4] Future Strategies and Forecasts - For 2026, the company will increase commercial investment as a percentage of net revenue, focusing on core and emerging channels [4] - The profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been revised down to $621 million and $680 million respectively, reflecting a decrease of 9% and 7% [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 21x for 2026, 20x for 2027, and 18x for 2028, with a maintained "buy" rating based on competitive advantages in high-end and super high-end segments [4]
百威亚太(1876.HK):中国市场仍待修复 但股息率吸引;小幅下调目标价 维持买入
Ge Long Hui· 2026-02-14 14:12
Core Viewpoint - The company faces pressure in Q4 2025 with a 4.2% year-on-year decline in revenue, primarily due to a downturn in the Chinese market, despite strong double-digit growth in India [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA decreased by 24.7%, with a net loss of approximately $12 million, slightly better than expectations [1] - For the full year, revenue and adjusted EBITDA fell by 6.1% and 9.8% respectively, reaching $5.76 billion and $1.59 billion, with the adjusted EBITDA margin declining by 1.1 percentage points to 27.6% [1] - In the Asia-Pacific West region, revenue declined by 5.6% in Q4, with price pressure (down 5.7% year-on-year) exceeding volume growth (up 0.1%) [2] Group 2: Market Analysis - The Chinese market saw a significant revenue decline of 11.4% in Q4, with volume and price down by 3.9% and 7.7% respectively, largely due to increased support for distributors and brand activation investments [2] - The Indian market continued to gain market share, achieving strong double-digit revenue growth in Q4, driven by high-end and super high-end product combinations [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Management aims to reignite growth in the Chinese market by focusing on expanding non-ready-to-drink channels, optimizing the product mix, and increasing digital investments [1] - Despite a slow recovery in the Chinese market, there is potential for marginal improvement in 2026 due to a low base effect [3] - The company has slightly lowered its revenue forecasts for 2026-2027 by 2% and adjusted EBITDA/net profit forecasts by 1% and 4-5% respectively, while maintaining a target price of HKD 8.90 based on a 20x target P/E ratio for 2026 [3]
联想集团(0992.HK)FY2026Q3财报点评:战略重组促进ISG业务加速重回盈利轨道 看好公司后续发展
Ge Long Hui· 2026-02-14 14:09
通过该计划,公司预计将加速在下一财年重回盈利轨道,并提升盈利能力,致力于在未来连续3 个财年 均实现每年净成本节省超过2 亿美元。 4、方案服务业务集团:潜在市场规模较大,助力公司相关收入保持长期增长。FY2026Q3,公司方案服 务业务集团季度营收同比增长18%,已连续19 个季度取得双位数增长。运营利润率提升至22.5%,接近 历史高位。该集团收入中,运维服务和项目与解决方案服务的收入占比不断提升,成为驱动方案服务业 务集团保持增长势头的关键因素。公司在IT 服务业增长最快速的领域进行策略性布局,潜在覆盖市场 规模达3600 亿美元。在数字化工作场所服务、混合云、人工智能和可持续发展等领域,方案服务业务 集团的增长速度则达到市场平均增速的2 倍。 盈利预测和投资评级考虑到公司混合式AI 进展显著,我们调整公司盈利预测,预计公司FY2026- FY2028 营收分别为801.44、876.00、932.35亿美元,non-HKFRS 净利润分别为17.96、19.73、21.11 亿 美元,对应non-HKFRS P/E 倍数为8.0x、7.2x、6.8x,维持"买入"评级。 1、调整后净利润显著增长,主要 ...
联想集团(0992.HK)FY26Q3业绩点评报告:存储涨价影响整体可控 战略重组计划有望加速ISG业务重回盈利轨道
Ge Long Hui· 2026-02-14 14:09
Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $22.204 billion for FY26Q3, marking an 18% year-over-year increase and a 9% quarter-over-quarter increase, with AI-related business revenue growing by 72% and accounting for 32% of total revenue [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was $546 million, a 21% decrease year-over-year but a 60% increase quarter-over-quarter, while adjusted net profit under non-Hong Kong financial reporting standards was $589 million, reflecting a 36% year-over-year increase and a 15% quarter-over-quarter increase [1] IDG Business (Intelligent Device Group) - The IDG business generated $15.755 billion in revenue for FY26Q3, representing a 14% year-over-year increase and a 4% quarter-over-quarter increase, driven by rapid growth in AI PC revenue and increased sales of high-end products [2] - The PC business revenue increased by 18% year-over-year, with Lenovo's global PC shipment market share reaching 25.3%, up 1.0 percentage points year-over-year, and AI PC penetration in the Chinese market rising to nearly 20% [2] - Smartphone sales and activations reached historical highs, primarily driven by strong performance of high-end models such as Edge and positive market feedback for ultra-high-end models like Motorola razr fold and Motorola Signature [2] ISG Business (Infrastructure Solutions Group) - The ISG business reported revenue of $5.176 billion for FY26Q3, a 31% year-over-year increase and a 27% quarter-over-quarter increase, with AI server revenue experiencing high double-digit growth [3] - The company has a project reserve amounting to $15.5 billion, and it delivered NVIDIA's GB300 NVL72 designed rack-level solutions during the period [3] - The revenue from liquid cooling solutions increased by 300% due to higher customer adoption rates, and a one-time restructuring cost of $285 million was incurred to optimize product mix and enhance productivity [3] SSG Business (Solutions and Services Group) - The SSG business achieved revenue of $2.652 billion for FY26Q3, reflecting an 18% year-over-year increase and a 4% quarter-over-quarter increase, marking 19 consecutive quarters of double-digit year-over-year growth [4] - The operating profit margin was 22.5%, close to historical highs, with maintenance services revenue increasing by 22%, project and solutions revenue up by 16%, and support services revenue also rising by 16% [4] - The core growth engines for the SSG business are maintenance services and project and solutions [4]