男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 特朗普：不考虑延长7月9日关税谈判截止日期；怀疑能否与日本达成协议 万斯"一票破局"，美国参议院通过"大而美"法案 美联储主席鲍威尔：无法断言7月降息是否为时过早，不排除任何一次会议 特朗普：不想拥有电动汽车，因为可能会爆炸，"考虑驱逐"马斯克 美国财长贝森特：与印度的贸易协议"非常接近" 国家主席习近平主持召开中央财经委员会第六次会议 6月财新中国PMI重回临界点以上 市场盘点 周二，美元指数先跌后涨，盘中一度跌近96关口，随后在美盘前有所回升，但未能重回97上方，最终收跌0.14%，报96.64；基准的10年期美债收益率收报 4.2443%，2年期美债收益率收报3.785%。 因特朗普的"大而美法案"在参议院获得通过， 且7月9日的贸易关税暂停最后期限越来越近，市场避险需求上升。现货黄金日内涨超1%，盘中一度冲上3350 美元关口上方，最终收涨1.08%，收报3338.92美元/盎司；现货白银最终收跌0.2%，报36.01美元/盎司。 因投资者消化积极的需求 ...

音频由扣子空间生成 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 美联储主席鲍威尔周二重申，稳定的经济活动使美联储有条件等待观察关税上调对物价和经济增长的影 响，再决定是否重启降息。 该言论发出后，金融市场对美联储最早可能于本月开始降息的押注升温。短期利率期货显示，美联储在 7月会议上降息的可能性约为四分之一，高于之前的不到五分之一。 官员对关税影响的分歧显著 鲍威尔指出，官员们将"特别关注通胀数据的具体表现"，对于劳动力市场，"我们密切留意意外走弱的 迹象"。在上周国会作证时，鲍威尔曾暗示官员们至少可能等到9月会议，以评估关税驱动的价格上涨幅 度。 过去两年显著下降后，一项衡量核心通胀的关键指标目前略高于美联储2%的目标。根据美联储偏好的 衡量标准，5月剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心通胀率为2.7%。 官员们普遍预计关税将在今年夏季推高物价。但有两名美联储官员已表示，他们可能支持在7月会议上 尽快降息，因为他们预计关税带来的价格上涨是一次性的。然而，另一些官员更担心，特朗普今年春季 大幅提高进口关税可能重新点燃通胀压力，尤其是在过去几年的高通胀让企业更有经验推高价格之后。 在他讲话的同时，美国5月份的JOLT ...

Market Overview - The main contracts in the futures market show a bearish sentiment, with 36 contracts rising and 41 contracts falling, indicating a concentration of trading activity in declining varieties [2] - The manufacturing sector in China has shown signs of recovery, with the Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 50.4 in June, up 2.1 points from May, indicating a return to expansion [9] Key Commodity Movements - The top gainers include the shipping index (up 7.80%), Shanghai gold (up 1.47%), and No. 20 rubber (up 1.15%), significantly influenced by supply and demand factors [4] - The largest declines were seen in industrial silicon (down 4.31%), glass (down 3.73%), and coking coal (down 3.32%), likely due to increased bearish pressure or negative fundamentals [4] Capital Flow Analysis - The most significant capital inflows were into Shanghai gold (CNY 2.902 billion), Shanghai copper (CNY 2.757 billion), and CSI 1000 (CNY 1.717 billion), indicating strong interest from major funds [6] - Conversely, the largest capital outflows were from CSI 500 (CNY -0.941 billion), CSI 300 (CNY -0.684 billion), and Shanghai silver (CNY -0.424 billion), suggesting a notable withdrawal of funds [6] Position Changes - Notable increases in open interest were observed in glass (up 10.37%), Shanghai gold (up 7.47%), and pulp (up 6.66%), indicating heightened trading activity and potential new capital inflows [8] - Significant decreases in open interest were noted in apples (down 4.76%), wire rods (down 7.69%), and short fibers (down 8.15%), suggesting a withdrawal of major funds [8] Industrial Insights - Industrial silicon production in June increased by 6.5% month-on-month but decreased by 27.7% year-on-year, with a cumulative decline of 17.8% in the first half of 2025 [10][11] - The glass industry is expected to reduce production in July by nearly 5% due to increased losses, despite a slight increase in production in June [15] Future Outlook - The industrial silicon market is facing a slowdown in demand from its three main downstream industries, suggesting a bearish outlook for the medium to long term [20] - The coking coal market is expected to experience fluctuations, with supply pressures easing as production resumes in certain regions [22] - The glass market continues to face high inventory levels and weak demand, with prices likely to follow cost fluctuations [23]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国总统特朗普周二在回应有关其前盟友埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）的提问时表示，将考虑驱逐这位亿 万富翁。马斯克近期再次加大了对特朗普标志性税收与支出法案的批评力度。 当被问及是否会驱逐这位出生于南非的企业家（马斯克为美国公民）时，特朗普在白宫对记者说："我 不知道"，随后补充道"我们得研究一下"。此前他在社交媒体上写道，如果没有美国政府补贴，这位特 斯拉首席执行官"可能得回南非老家"。 "电动车授权"通常指一系列燃油经济性标准和尾气污染限制，这些政策实际上迫使汽车制造商销售更多 电动车型。政府已着手废除这些政策（参议院待审法案未涉及），但税收与支出法案将终止个人购买电 动车的税收抵免——这项政策曾助力电动车销量增长。 马斯克此前猛烈抨击这项法案，称其为"疯狂的支出法案"，并威胁要帮助在美国创建第三政党。但他否 认反对该法案是为了保留政府对其公司的补贴。 马斯克在2024年大选中支持特朗普，并随后担任政府效率部门（DOGE）负责人，致力于大幅削减联邦 政府人力和职责，直至5月下旬离职。 两人因马斯克对税收法案的批评公开决裂，在社交媒体上相互攻击。尽 ...

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index has broken through the 6200-point barrier, marking a historical high, indicating the potential start of a new bullish market phase [2] - Factors supporting the current market environment include a strong labor market, with non-farm payroll data expected to remain above 100,000, and a lack of unexpected inflation spikes [2] - Anticipation of favorable CPI data on July 15 could alleviate concerns regarding Federal Reserve policies, while new trade agreements may lower actual tariff levels, boosting global market sentiment [2] Group 2 - Market expectations for corporate earnings have been significantly lowered, making it easier for companies to exceed forecasts, particularly in the financial sector and among tech giants like Nvidia [2] - Morgan Stanley believes that the tax bill will pass, but the bond market may not react negatively immediately; strong GDP growth could mitigate potential bond market rejection of U.S. fiscal actions [3] - A series of trade agreements is expected to be reached soon, which would effectively lower tariff rates, although there may be temporary turbulence due to potential tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [3] Group 3 - Despite the bullish outlook, potential risks include rising U.S. Treasury yields, trade tensions, and geopolitical conflicts, which could impact market stability [4] - A significant rise in 10-year Treasury yields above 5% could lead to volatility in risk assets, while weak economic data could shift market expectations regarding recession [4] - The most pessimistic scenarios involve a return to stagflation narratives and potential market sell-offs if the bond market perceives the fiscal bill as unfavorable [5]

Group 1 - The Canadian stock market outperformed the US market in the first half of the year, driven by a record surge in gold prices, with the S&P/TSX Composite Index rising 8.6% compared to the S&P 500's 5.5% increase [1][3] - Half of the gains in the S&P/TSX Composite Index were attributed to gold and silver stocks, with significant contributions from companies like Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. and Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. [4] - Analysts express concerns that the gold-driven rally may not continue in the second half of the year due to reduced geopolitical and trade risks, which have previously contributed to market uncertainty [4] Group 2 - The energy sector is dragging down earnings expectations for the S&P/TSX, with a significant decline in revenue forecasts since April, primarily due to the struggling energy sector [4] - Despite the challenges, there are growth opportunities in Canadian stocks, as global investors are increasingly allocating funds to the Toronto Stock Exchange, attracted by its high weights in materials, energy, and financial sectors [5] - The S&P/TSX Composite Index has a price-to-earnings ratio of 17, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 24, indicating a favorable valuation narrative for Canadian stocks [5]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index has reached a new high, indicating a potential melt-up mode driven by market sentiment, which typically involves rapid short-term gains and increased investor participation [1] - Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, warns that the current primary risk may be the stock market entering a speculative bubble, similar to the state observed four and a half months ago when the latest round of corrections began [1] - Yardeni maintains a year-end target of 6,500 points for the S&P 500 index and a target of 10,000 points by the end of 2029, suggesting a bullish outlook for the market [1] Group 2 - The current bull market's return rate is comparable to some of the best bull markets since the mid-1960s [2] - Following an 18.9% correction from February to early April, the S&P 500 index has regained support due to optimism surrounding tariff agreements and significant investments from AI companies [3] - Earnings expectations for companies peaked at 22.2 on April 4, dropped to 18.1 by April 25, and have now rebounded to 21.9, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [3] Group 3 - Yardeni expects second-quarter corporate earnings to exceed expectations, similar to the first quarter, as analysts have ceased downgrading earnings forecasts for the remainder of the year [3] - Since the bull market began in October 2022, the company has favored sectors such as information technology, communication services, industrials, and financials, which have performed well [3] - The energy sector was previously recommended but has since been abandoned by Yardeni [3]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 黄金铂金比创下50年来最大两个月跌幅 走势——而无论如何，这都意味着未来数月美股前景显著恶化。 赫伯特上一次提及该比率是在3月初，当时市场普遍预测新一轮熊市降临，但因黄金铂金比彼时处于强 劲上升趋势，其追随者仍保持看涨，事实证明他是对的。标普500指数此后累计上涨约8%。 过去数年的大部分时间里，该比率一直处于稳定上升趋势，但自4月中旬以来，铂金价格飙升超40%而 黄金持稳略跌，导致黄金铂金比骤降，这对股市短期前景而言绝非吉兆。 研究作者称，该比率之所以能成为良好的短期市场择时指标，是因为它是地缘政治风险的敏感替代指标 ——尽管黄金和铂金均具工业用途且往往在经济强劲时上涨，但黄金与地缘政治风险存在相关性。因此 当该比率下跌时，意味着市场认为经济相对地缘风险而言更为强劲。 人们可能会对此感到惊讶：为何黄金铂金比下跌暗示市场前景黯淡？若经济相对地缘风险更强，难道不 是好事吗？要理解这一问题，需区分该比率作为同步指标与领先指标的差异：作为同步指标，比率下跌 时股市往往表现优于平均水平，这正是我们过去两个月所经历的；而作为领先指标时，情况则相反—— 当比率下跌时，投资者对先前高企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "OBBBA" bill, which focuses on comprehensive tax reform and targeted incentives, has passed the Senate with a narrow vote of 51-49, expected to expand the federal deficit, drawing warnings from rating agencies and criticism from various parties, while some banks believe it could boost the U.S. economy [2] Advantages - The OBBBA is seen as crucial for extending the expiration of key tax provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which, if left unaddressed, could suppress household consumption and business investment [3] - The bill allows for faster capital investment deductions, potentially enhancing investment in the coming years, although it may sacrifice future investment [3] - Analysts from Citigroup anticipate that the passage of the bill, along with recent trade agreements, will improve growth sentiment, and they expect the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy [3] Disadvantages - Critics highlight concerns over the projected increase of at least $3 trillion in the deficit over the next decade, as estimated by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office [4] - Morgan Stanley points out that while the tax provisions may benefit key sectors, they could raise concerns about fiscal sustainability [4] - Erica York from the Tax Foundation criticizes the bill as irresponsible fiscal policy that will significantly increase budget deficits and debt, noting that many tax cuts are poorly designed and may create administrative burdens for the IRS [4]

Group 1 - The hacker known as "Robert," linked to Iran, has threatened to release more stolen emails related to Trump's circle ahead of the 2024 U.S. elections, claiming to possess around 100GB of data [1] - The U.S. Department of Justice has charged the Iranian Revolutionary Guard with operating the "Robert" hacking operation, although the hacker did not respond to this accusation during discussions with Reuters [2] - Following recent military actions involving the U.S. and Iran, the hacker has resumed contact with the media, indicating plans to sell the stolen emails and encouraging Reuters to publicize the matter [2] Group 2 - The leaked emails include communications between Trump's campaign team and Republican candidates, as well as details of settlements with adult film star Stormy Daniels, but did not fundamentally alter the outcome of the previous election [2] - Experts suggest that Iran's cyber operatives may be attempting to retaliate without provoking further military action from the U.S. and Israel, indicating a strategic approach to their cyber activities [2] - U.S. cybersecurity officials have warned that American businesses and critical infrastructure operators may still be targets for Iranian cyber attacks, despite a period of low-profile activity from Iranian hackers during recent conflicts [2]