Group 1: Domestic Market Trends - The domestic vegetable oil market shows significant differentiation, with palm oil reaching new highs, the main contract rising by 0.87% to refresh its peak, leading the oilseed sector [1] - Soybean oil steadily increased, with the main contract up by 0.50%, hitting a three-week high [1] - Canola oil experienced weak fluctuations, impacted by expectations of the China-Australia trade agreement, dropping to a two-week low before narrowing its decline to 0.14% due to short positions being reduced at the close [1] Group 2: Renewable Fuel Credits and Policies - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reported an increase in renewable fuel blending credits for June, with ethanol (D6) credits at approximately 1.25 billion gallons, up from 1.22 billion gallons in May [3] - Biodiesel (D4) credits rose from 602 million gallons in May to 629 million gallons in June, indicating increased activity in the fuel market, which is beneficial for demand for agricultural by-products [3] - Indonesia is exploring increasing biodiesel blending to 50% (B50), with research expected to be completed by the end of the year, although implementation by 2026 remains uncertain [3] Group 3: Global Palm Oil Price Outlook - Afrinvest's latest report predicts a significant rise in global palm oil prices, potentially reaching $1,200 per ton by the end of 2025, a 33% increase from the current price of $900 per ton [5] - The price increase is attributed to tightening supplies from major producers Indonesia and Malaysia, along with rising global demand driven by biofuel policies [5] - Geopolitical tensions have led to reduced sunflower oil supplies, further exacerbating the upward price trend [5] Group 4: Short-term Market Outlook - CICC Wealth Futures indicates that palm oil prices may face upward pressure due to declining exports, with domestic market momentum decreasing, although a strong oscillation state remains possible [7] - High domestic soybean crushing volumes and rising soybean oil inventories do not support excessive price increases for soybean oil [7] - The market for canola oil remains limited due to improved supply prospects following a near agreement on canola imports between China and Australia [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in polysilicon futures prices, driven by strong market sentiment and policy expectations in the photovoltaic industry, has led to a record high of 45,000 yuan/ton, marking a 7.49% increase in the main contract for 2508 [1] Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant increase in price support across its supply chain, with the silicon wafer sector leveraging low inventory strategies to propose price hikes while controlling shipments [2] - Recent policy announcements have bolstered market expectations, contributing to a favorable environment for polysilicon prices, which are being driven by both capital inflow and market sentiment [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - Despite the recent price increase, the fundamental support for polysilicon remains weak, with supply and demand not showing substantial improvement. Short-term price movements are expected to be modestly upward as downstream silicon wafer companies may reduce production due to high raw material costs [3] - The recent halt in the downward trend of silicon wafer prices is attributed to rising polysilicon prices and improved supply-demand dynamics within the silicon wafer sector [3] Future Outlook - The market is currently characterized by significant divergence and limited transmission of price movements, with a focus on maintaining positions at the upper range of price fluctuations. The photovoltaic supply chain's price support is increasing, but terminal demand has not yet shown signs of recovery [4] - The recent increase in polysilicon prices has provided many manufacturers with opportunities to return to profitability, although this is not expected to be a consistent trend. Most manufacturers are likely to initiate new hedging strategies as polysilicon inventories remain high [5] - The overall demand for polysilicon is still under considerable pressure, with expectations of limited upward price movement due to weak terminal demand forecasts [5]

Group 1 - Lithium carbonate main contract prices rose sharply, reaching a peak of 69,980 yuan/ton before closing at 67,960 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.47% increase [1] - Analysts believe that supply-side disturbances and a continuous decrease in exchange warehouse receipts are the main factors driving recent price increases, while the overall supply remains sufficient [1] - Despite being a traditional off-season for demand, downstream orders are still relatively stable, indicating a less pronounced seasonal effect [1] Group 2 - Cangge Mining announced a halt in lithium resource development activities, affecting a production line with a monthly capacity of approximately 1,200 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, but the overall impact on the domestic lithium carbonate market supply is limited [2] - Domestic lithium carbonate production plans for July are projected to be 79,300 tons, a 7.1% increase month-on-month, with high operating rates maintained in Jiangxi and stable output in Qinghai [2] - Some manufacturers are experiencing increased orders and production enthusiasm, despite planned maintenance on certain spodumene production lines [2] Group 3 - Market sentiment is significantly driven by disturbances at the mining end, with lithium prices remaining strong, although downstream material manufacturers show little intention to actively replenish stocks [3] - The recent price increases are primarily driven by supply-side disturbances, with limited actual impact on the fundamentals, suggesting a cautious approach in the short term [3] - Continuous reduction in warehouse receipts and rising lithium ore prices, combined with various market news disturbances, are stimulating price increases, while long-term hedging pressures may arise [3]

日本政府周四公布的数据显示，今年上半年，日本陷入了2.2万亿日元的贸易逆差。这主要是因为美国 总统特朗普的关税政策对日本出口造成了冲击。 上个月，日本的出口额同比下降0.5%，此前5月份已下降1.7%。其中，日本对美国的出口在6月份下降 了11%，汽车出口更是暴跌26.7%。此前，美国已于今年4月对汽车进口加征了25%的关税。 与此同时，日本对中国的出口也下降了近5%。对墨西哥的出口下降了近20%，墨西哥是日本汽车制造 商在北美的重要汽车组装中心。特朗普已将上调进口关税的实施日期推迟至8月1日，以便为谈判争取时 间，但到目前为止，双方尚未达成任何协议。 上个月，日本出口总额接近9.2万亿日元，这是连续第二个月出现下滑。随着进口小幅增长0.2%，当月 贸易顺差为1530亿日元，而5月份则出现了6376亿日元的贸易逆差。 今年上半年，日本出口总额达到53.4万亿日元，增长3.6%；进口总额为55.6万亿日元，增长1.3%。 日本和美国一直在进行贸易谈判，日本官员强调日本是美国的重要盟友。海关数据显示，2024年日本近 五分之一的出口流向美国，因此达成一项贸易协议对日本经济至关重要。 特朗普政府一直关注大米，这个领 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 据两名听取了会谈简报的官员称，欧盟正在准备一份可能对美国服务业征收的关税清单以及出口管制措 施，作为与华盛顿贸易谈判失败后可能采取的报复行动的一部分。 作为对美国总统特朗普关税的回应，欧盟委员会正在汇总这份措施清单，但仍需将其提交给欧盟各国。 特朗普已宣布，他计划从8月1日开始对欧盟集团征收30%的关税。 去年，美国占了欧盟所有出口的五分之一，是其最大的合作伙伴。特朗普的"心病"则是该贸易中的商品 部分产生的2350亿美元逆差，尽管美国在服务贸易上享有顺差。 巴克莱银行的经济学家估计，如果美国对欧盟商品的平均关税税率达到35%（包括对等关税和行业性关 税），再加上布鲁塞尔10%的报复性关税，将使欧元区的产出削减0.7个百分点。 这将耗尽欧元区本已微薄的大部分增长，并可能导致欧洲央行进一步下调其2%的存款利率。巴克莱的 经济学家们说，"通胀可能会更深度、更持久地低于2%的目标，从而促使采取更宽松的货币政策立场 ——存款利率到（2026年3月）可能达到1%。" 德国经济研究所早前的一项估算发现，从现在到2028年，20%到50%的关税将使德国4.3万亿欧元 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is heavily influenced by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is considered a more accurate measure of inflation compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1] - The core PCE inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, is particularly favored by the Federal Reserve as it is seen as the best predictor of future inflation [1] - Economists predict that the core PCE report to be released on July 31 will show an increase of 0.2% to 0.3%, which may not be low enough to convince most Federal Reserve officials to cut interest rates [1][2] Group 2 - The overall PCE inflation rate is also expected to rise by approximately 0.3%, with the annual increase potentially reaching 2.6% in June, up from 2.3% the previous month and 2.1% after the pandemic low [3] - The rising inflation trend is partially attributed to the tariff policies of the Trump administration [3] - Despite pressure from the White House, most Federal Reserve voting members are inclined to maintain current interest rates, with expectations for potential rate cuts later in the year if inflation threats diminish and the job market shows signs of weakness [3]

据世界黄金协会的贵金属分析师称，未来18个月，黄金价格的前景偏向上行，而白银和铂金预计将在 2026年之前延续其近期的强势。 世界黄金协会前景预测组的高级经济学家Jeetendra Khadan和研究分析师Kaltrina Temaj写道，"贵金属价 格在2025年上半年飙升至历史新高，这是在2024年上涨20%的基础之上，这轮涨势由黄金引领，在美元 走弱、利率区间波动以及高度不确定的地缘经济环境下，投资需求强劲。" "黄金作为表现最佳的主要资产类别之一，结束了上半年，期间上涨了近26%，"他们指出。"它在2025 年上半年创下了26个历史新高，此前在2024年已突破了40个新高。" 分析师们表示，这种优异表现是多种因素综合作用的结果，包括美元走弱、因预期未来降息而导致的收 益率区间波动，以及"加剧的地缘政治紧张局势——其中一些与美国贸易政策直接或间接相关。" "更强的需求也来自于场外交易市场（OTC）、交易所和ETF交易活动的增加，"他们说。"这使得上半 年黄金日均交易量达到3290亿美元——创下有记录以来的半年度最高数字。各国央行也以强劲的步伐持 续购买，做出了贡献——即使没有达到前几个季度的创纪录水平。 ...

但众多分析师批评特朗普过度关注服装、电子产品等商品贸易逆差，却忽视关键问题。 新加坡欣里奇基金会贸易政策主管黛博拉·埃尔姆斯（Deborah Elms）指出，美国四分之三劳动力集中于 金融、零售、通信等服务行业，"若像特朗普团队那样只盯着商品贸易，无异于用残缺数据制定错误政 策"。欧盟数据显示，2023年欧美商品与服务贸易总体平衡，美国逆差仅占双边贸易总额的3%。 纳斯警告，"美国不可能自产所有商品"，例如咖啡和香蕉必须依赖进口。彼得森研究所经济学家玛丽· 拉夫利（Mary Lovely）直言："放弃专业化分工的代价不仅是效率损失，有些产品将彻底断供！" 托内尔森是批判自由贸易的书籍《竞相逐底》（The Race to the Bottom）的作者，他还表示，他认为自 特朗普就职以来，"贸易政策的基本方向不仅正确，而且早该如此。"他补充说，他强烈反对大多数经济 学家所说的贸易逆差在经济上无关紧要的观点。 上周，特朗普向美国贸易伙伴发出的二十多封信件引爆舆论。他在信中宣布将于8月1日提高关税，以解 决所谓的"困扰美国数十年的贸易逆差问题"。 特朗普在这些致日本、韩国等国的信件中强调，必须"消除我国与贵国之间的贸 ...

国外 1. 花旗：予恒指今年年底目标25000点，呼吁增持中国互联网、科技及消费板块 花旗发表亚股策略报告表示，尽管宏观环境波动，亚洲股市表现仍优于全球同行，美国关税问题使短期 展望不明朗，但花旗股票策略师对中期前景仍持建设性看法，该行料MSCI亚洲(不包括日本)指数至 2026年中将有约7%的回报，此相当预测市盈率14倍，该行在亚股中看好中国及韩国市场，其企业每股 盈测修订趋势较佳、估值合理，且受益于结构性主题(人工智能、公司治理改革)。该行予恒指于今年年 底目标25000点、明年年中目标更达26000点，予沪深300指数于今年年底目标4200点、明年年中目标达 4350点，MSCI中国指数今年年底目标79点、明年年中目标82点。花旗称，MSCI中国行业权重模型投资 组合中，该行将消费板块从中性上调至增持，倾向于国内相关股票并为潜在的政府刺激做准备；将运输 板块从增持下调至中性，因全球货运量在美国贸易关税增加的背景下存在下行风险。该行对中国互联 网、科技及消费板块予增持评级。 2. 美银：预计美联储在明年之前不会降息 4. 惠誉：财政政策是日本信用评级的主要风险 惠誉评级负责日本主权评级的分析师Krisja ...

Arm今年迄今股价已上涨约16%，而法巴银行团队认为，鉴于股价尚未计入ASIC业务潜力，仍存在"显 著的上涨空间"。周三，Arm股价上涨近5%。 Arm(ARM.O)可能很快在定制人工智能芯片市场崭露头角，一些分析师认为，该公司股票尚未充分受益 于这一机遇。 法巴银行分析师在周三的一份报告中，将Arm的评级从"中性"上调至"跑赢大市"，并将目标价从110美 元上调至210美元。分析师指出，随着科技巨头不断增加AI领域的资本开支，Arm顺理成章可能会转型 成为专用集成电路（ASIC）芯片制造商——不过，他们也提到，Arm管理层迄今尚未就ASIC战略作出 任何正式表态。 这家总部位于伦敦的公司目前通过授权出售芯片设计，但并不直接销售自有芯片。分析师表示，如果 Arm能在可服务市场中拿下7%的份额，其ASIC业务的息税前利润（EBIT）可能翻倍。他们预计，到 2030年，该市场规模将达到2000亿美元；在这一假设下，Arm的ASIC业务到2030和2031财年可能带来 80亿至150亿美元的营收。 （文章来源：金十数据） 分析师引用近期媒体报道称，愈发多的迹象显示Arm可能开始生产自有ASIC芯片。例如，英国《金融 ...