AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国总统特朗普"不可预测"的政策，促使债券巨头太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）开始减持美国资产 以分散投资风险。与此同时，华尔街正忧心忡忡，密切关注特朗普抨击美联储所引发的长期后果。 "任何损害美联储独立性的行为，都绝非明智之举。"摩根大通首席执行官杰米・戴蒙（Jamie Dimon） 在周二表示，"在我看来，这种做法只会适得其反，最终会推升通胀预期，并且很可能导致长期利率走 高。" 某大型华尔街机构的资深交易员补充道，特朗普针对美联储的一系列举动，会削弱美联储的公信力，进 而损害其应对危机的能力。 "这些负面影响不会立刻显现，但一旦未来爆发危机或通胀预期升温，其破坏性就会彻底暴露。"他说 道。 伊万辛也表达了类似观点，他强调："美联储制定货币政策的独立性，对市场而言至关重要。" 他进一步阐释："尽管从表面上看，施压美联储降息似乎颇具诱惑力……但在经济强劲增长、通胀高企 的背景下，激进降息很可能会导致长期利率上升。" 华尔街高管们还警告称，向鲍威尔发出传票，其核心目的或许并非针对现任美联储主席，而是瞄准他的 继任者——市场担忧特朗普可能会试图向美联储下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may influence his decision to remain on the board after his term ends in May, amidst President Trump's attempts to pressure the Fed for interest rate cuts [1][8]. Group 1: Powell's Tenure and Market Reactions - Following the investigation news, the probability of Powell leaving the Federal Reserve by May 30 has dropped from 74% to 45%, and the likelihood of him leaving by the end of the year has decreased from 85% to 62% [1][3]. - Market participants are increasingly speculating that Powell may stay on the board for an extended period, potentially until 2028, to uphold the Fed's independence [8][10]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Implications - The pressure exerted on Powell by Trump may backfire, as premature interest rate cuts could lead to rising inflation, undermining the Fed's credibility [8]. - The investigation has brought the issue of the Fed's independence to the forefront, with Powell's potential decision to remain seen as a move to protect that independence [8][10]. Group 3: Nomination Dynamics - The probability of Kevin Hassett being nominated as the next Fed Chair has diminished, with Kevin Warsh gaining more support among potential candidates [4][7]. - Trump's proposal to nominate Hassett faces increasing challenges in the Senate, particularly due to Hassett's support for aggressive rate cuts [8][9].

Group 1 - The U.S. government, led by President Trump, has decided not to impose new tariffs on critical mineral imports after a months-long review aimed at assessing national security threats from foreign imports [1][2] - Trump is seeking to negotiate agreements with foreign countries to ensure a sufficient supply of critical minerals and to alleviate supply chain vulnerabilities, rather than relying solely on traditional percentage tariffs [1][2] - A proposed "price floor" mechanism will be established for critical mineral trade, which includes setting minimum import prices for specific materials and potentially imposing tariffs to mitigate supply chain risks [3] Group 2 - The announcement is seen as an effort to avoid disrupting the ongoing trade truce and may serve as a means for the government to rebuild the tariff system if the Supreme Court rejects Trump's previous global tariff policies [2] - The potential tariffs could target countries that artificially lower prices, effectively raising the cost of imported products to support other foreign suppliers and create a viable price floor [3] - The announcement may also impact the uranium market, as uranium is identified as a critical mineral essential for the energy sector, especially with the increasing demand for nuclear power to meet the energy needs of artificial intelligence [3]

微软(MSFT.O)最近三个⽉股价下跌约10％，触及7个多月低点，对应软件板块持续疲软。但是，摩根⼠ 坦利分析师称，当问到信息技术主管会把新增AI预算投向哪里时，他们最常提到的仍然是微软。 1月14日，该公司股价下跌2.4%，收于459.38美元，为2022年5月以来的最低水平。分析师基思·怀斯 （Keith Weiss）周三表示： "随着更多业务迁移至云端，微软与亚马逊仍然是明确受益者。" 在生成式AI产品方面，92％的CIO预计未来12个月将采用微软提供的工具。热门选项包括微软365 Copilot办公助手、用于编码的Github Copilot，以及允许企业运行模型的Azure OpenAI Services。 尽管如此，市场对微软及与ChatGPT相关的软件股仍持怀疑态度。不过，高盛近期将微软的目标价上调 至655美元，认为微软对AI初创公司Anthropic的投资以及自身内部AI模型的开发，使其在AI领域的布局 更加多元化，减少了对OpenAI的依赖。 "微软仍然最有优势拿下更多的生成式AI支出和IT预算，但这一点并没有反映在股价中。" 他指出，微软股价仅按明年GAAP盈利预期的23倍交易，无论绝对 ...

埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）旗下的xAI周三深夜表示，在连续数周遭遇消费者和政界反弹以及监管调查 后，Grok将不再根据用户提示，在社交平台X上生成真人的性感化图像。 此前，Grok让X用户可以通过简单文字提示，轻易基于真人照片生成色情和暴力图像。xAI在X平台上 发布的帖子称： "我们已经实施技术措施，防止Grok账号允许编辑真人图像，使其呈现如比基尼等暴露服 装。" "此限制适用于所有用户，包括付费订阅者。" 该公司还在帖子中表示，通过Grok在X上进行图像生成与编辑将仅向付费订阅者开放。 就在此公告发布数小时前，加利福尼亚州司法部长罗伯·邦塔（Rob Bonta）表示，其办公室正对总部位 于硅谷的xAI进行调查，原因是其明显"大规模制作未经同意的亲密影像深伪内容"。 加州州长加文·纽森（Gavin Newsom）一直以来多次支持马斯克及其公司，他周三早间在X上发文 称："xAI为掠夺者创造并托管一个传播未经同意而生成的色情AI深伪内容的温床，其中包括数字方 式'脱光'儿童的图像，这极其卑劣。" 近几周，印度、马来西亚、印尼、爱尔兰、英国、法国、澳大利亚以及欧盟委员会均宣布启动调查。印 尼和马来西亚 ...

"但它们此前涨得太猛，现在只是稍作休整。" 克莱默表示，他对这些跌幅并不过分担忧，因为许多大型银行此前涨幅巨大，"早就该回调一下了"。截 至周三美股收盘，摩根大通下跌0.97％，富国银行下跌4.61％，美国银行下跌3.78％，花旗集团下跌 3.34％。 以下是克莱默对本周公布财报的几家大型银行分析： 摩根大通 CNBC"名嘴"财经主持人吉姆·克莱默（Jim Cramer）周三解读了摩根大通(JPM.N)、富国银行(WFC.N)、 美国银行(BAC.N)和花旗集团(C.N)的财报表现，这些银行股当日均走低。 他表示，财报数据本身稳健，但投资者此前预期很高，加之管理层释出的谨慎言论，使市场情绪受到打 击。"看完数据后，我的判断是，只要经济不要从当前水平恶化，这些银行股今年仍然能继续表现。"他 说， 尽管摩根大通在盈利和收入方面均超预期，但投资银行业务逊于市场预期。克莱默表示，该业务受债券 与股票承销疲软拖累。首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）提到严峻的地缘政治风险和美国不断膨胀 的预算赤字，这可能也导致股价下挫。 富国银行 富国银行在收入和盈利方面均未达标，克莱默将利润不足的大部分原因归于更高的遣散支 ...

Group 1 - Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported chips not used for AI in the U.S. [10] - The U.S. Supreme Court has not ruled on the legality of Trump's tariffs, with the next decision window expected next week [9] - The gold price reached a historical high of $4628.14 per ounce, increasing by 0.92% [6] Group 2 - The adjustment of financing margin ratios from 80% to 100% by the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [12] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26999.81 points, up 0.56%, with significant activity in the AI healthcare sector [4] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index drop by 0.31%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.56% [5] Group 3 - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 0.23%, with notable movements in individual stocks such as Alibaba, which rose by 1.7% [4] - The AI application sector showed strong performance across markets, while sectors like lithium and insurance faced declines [5]

据一位共和党关键议员透露，由于司法部向央行送达了传票，美联储主席鲍威尔可能会缺席他下一次预 定的国会听证会。 美联储发言人拒绝置评。 一批共和党关键议员已对司法部针对美联储的调查表达了担忧。 银行委员会的共和党关键人物、不再寻求连任的参议员Thom Tillis上周日晚间发誓，在问题解决之前， 将反对特朗普提名的任何美联储人选。其他共和党参议员，包括前桥水基金的CEO Dave McCormick， 周一则表达了较为温和的反对意见。 在此之前，鲍威尔于上周日表示，美联储已收到司法部的大陪审团传票，面临刑事起诉的威胁。这一行 动与他在去年6月就美联储总部正在进行的翻新工程发表的国会证词有关。 根据1978年对央行相关法律的修订案，美联储主席每年必须参加两次国会听证会，就货币政策和经济发 展情况作证。按照传统，他们会出席参议院银行委员会和众议院金融服务委员会的听证会。 众议院金融服务委员会主席、共和党众议员French Hill表示："我预计鲍威尔主席不会在2月出席参众两 院的作证，因为大陪审团指控他犯有伪证罪。这将导致他无法出席国会举行的每半年一次的法定听证 会。" ...

Group 1: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley's chief economic strategist noted that inflation has not re-accelerated but remains above target, indicating insufficient grounds for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in January [1] - JPMorgan's CEO highlighted the resilience of the U.S. economy despite a slowdown in the labor market, with consumer spending remaining strong and businesses generally healthy [1] - Credit Agricole's forex strategist suggested that the market has already priced in negative factors related to interest rate cuts, indicating that the dollar may be undervalued [1] Group 2: Currency and Monetary Policy - Barclays reported that the Japanese yen may face downward pressure due to rising concerns over Japan's fiscal situation, potentially leading to further monetary easing [2] - Mitsubishi UFJ noted that a significant depreciation of the yen could raise concerns among policymakers, with speculation about government intervention to support the currency [3] - Julius Baer indicated that despite narrowing interest rate differentials, the yen is expected to remain weak due to concerns over Japan's fiscal policies and high public debt levels [4] Group 3: UK Economic Outlook - ING analysts warned that the British pound's recent gains against the euro may not be sustainable, as the Bank of England could lower interest rates sooner than expected [5][6] Group 4: U.S. Inflation and Federal Reserve Predictions - CICC reported that the U.S. December CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, while core CPI was slightly below expectations [7] - CITIC Securities projected that the Federal Reserve would pause interest rate cuts in January and implement two cuts of 25 basis points each later in the year [8] Group 5: Strategic Metals and Investment Opportunities - CITIC Jiantou emphasized the bullish outlook for strategic metals due to rising resource nationalism and significant changes in demand dynamics [9] - Galaxy Securities highlighted the potential for a super copper cycle driven by the intersection of AI advancements and global order restructuring, suggesting significant upside for copper prices [11][12] Group 6: Brain-Computer Interface Industry - Galaxy Securities reported that brain-computer interface technology is moving towards industrial production, with significant policy support in China facilitating its commercialization [13]

Core Viewpoint - The actions of the Trump administration towards the Federal Reserve over the past year are fundamentally about monetary policy, as stated by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, who defended Fed Chair Powell amid a criminal investigation led by the Justice Department [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Kashkari emphasized the importance of explaining to voters why the independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for the health and vitality of the U.S. economy [1] - The Supreme Court has signaled a different view of the Federal Reserve compared to other independent agencies, potentially granting the Trump administration more power over the Fed [2] - If the Supreme Court sides with Trump, it could undermine the foundational independence of the Federal Reserve, allowing future presidents to dismiss Fed officials at will [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Funds rate currently hovers between 3.5% and 3.75%, a level that Kashkari believes positions the Fed well [2] - There is significant division among decision-makers regarding recent interest rate decisions, with some officials opposing a rate cut due to persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target [4] - Kashkari expressed caution regarding further rate cuts, citing a solid economic foundation despite some labor market cracks and ongoing high inflation [4][5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Kashkari warned that inflation could remain above target levels for the next two to three years, potentially leading to prolonged high inflation [5] - A significant rise in unemployment, particularly if accompanied by easing inflation, could prompt a change in Kashkari's strategy [5] - The current economic resilience suggests that tight monetary policy may not be as impactful as perceived, as there have not been widespread layoffs despite reduced hiring [4]