Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the expectation of a potential agreement between the United States and Iran within a month, as stated by President Trump, who warned of severe consequences for Iran if no consensus is reached [1] - The U.S. has significantly increased its military presence in the region, deploying the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier to the Middle East, while Iran has warned against any military intervention [2] - Netanyahu expressed hope that Trump is creating conditions for a favorable agreement with Iran, emphasizing that any deal must include critical elements for Israel, such as halting Iran's nuclear program and limiting its missile capabilities [3][4] Group 2 - The negotiations between the U.S. and Iran resumed after an eight-month hiatus, with the first talks taking place in Oman, indicating a potential shift in diplomatic relations [1][2] - The core issue in the negotiations remains uranium enrichment, with the U.S. demanding Iran to cease enrichment and transfer high-enriched uranium out of the country, which Iran considers unacceptable [2] - Netanyahu's discussions with Trump also covered broader regional issues, including the fragile ceasefire in Gaza and the overall situation in the region, highlighting the close relationship between Israel and the U.S. [4]

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 特朗普：美国"必须"与伊朗达成协议 特朗普承认准备向中东部署第二支航母打击群 贝森特"松口"：支持参议院接手鲍威尔调查 2025年中国风光发电新增装机再创历史新高 中国对原产于欧盟的进口相关乳制品征收反补贴税 市场盘点 周四，在关键的CPI数据公布前夕，美元指数横盘震荡，日内基本持平，收报96.84。由于AI恐慌重袭引发科技股抛售，美债获避险资金流入，收益率全线下 挫，基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.102%，对美联储政策利率敏感的2年期美债收益率收报3.456%。 由于交易员抛售金属回补股市亏损，现货黄金盘中急挫，最低触及4878.37，最终收跌3.17%，报4922.8美元/盎司；现货白银跌势更猛，尾盘一度下破75美 元/盎司，最终收跌10.64%，报75.26美元/盎司。 随着交易员权衡美伊局势以及IEA下调全球石油需求预测，国际原油回落。WTI原油美盘跌势加速，失守63美元关口，最终收跌3.05%，报62.98美元/桶；布 伦特原油收跌2.97%，报67 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets experienced a significant sell-off, leading to a sharp decline in gold and silver prices as investors liquidated positions to cover losses in the stock market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices plummeted nearly $200 within 30 minutes, closing down over 3% at $4878.37 per ounce, while silver fell nearly $9, closing at $75.26 per ounce, a drop of 10.64% [1]. - The sell-off in precious metals was partly driven by profit-taking after a recent surge in prices, which had been fueled by speculative buying [3][4]. - The sudden drop in metal prices was characterized as a "risk-off" market sentiment, where even safe-haven assets like gold were sold off by investors in need of liquidity [2][4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - The recent volatility in gold and silver prices was attributed to a lack of new catalysts, leading to sharp fluctuations within a narrow range [4]. - Analysts noted that stop-loss orders triggered below $5000 contributed to the rapid decline in prices, indicating a chain reaction in the market [4]. - The overall sell-off appeared to be driven by algorithmic trading and systematic strategies, particularly from Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) reacting to key price levels being breached [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the recent downturn, several banks maintain a bullish outlook on gold, citing ongoing factors such as geopolitical tensions and a shift in global capital from traditional assets [5]. - Major financial institutions like JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank project gold prices to reach between $6000 and $6300 per ounce by year-end [5]. - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming economic data, such as the U.S. core CPI, which is expected to influence Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and potentially support gold prices [5].

Core Viewpoint - Ukrainian President Zelensky emphasized the need for increased pressure on Russia from the U.S. to potentially end the conflict by summer, while the participation of Moscow in upcoming peace talks remains uncertain [2][5]. Group 1: Peace Negotiations - Zelensky stated that Ukraine is ready to participate in the next round of peace talks proposed to be held in Miami, but the outcome depends significantly on U.S. pressure on Russia [2]. - The Kremlin has not confirmed the date for the next round of negotiations but indicated that talks could occur soon, with U.S. officials suggesting a meeting next week [2]. - Previous negotiations held in Abu Dhabi did not yield any breakthroughs, particularly regarding the contentious eastern region of Donbas [4]. Group 2: Political Developments - Zelensky denied reports about plans to announce presidential elections and a referendum on peace agreements on February 24, stating that elections would only occur with adequate security guarantees from the U.S. and Western allies [3][4]. - A source indicated that Zelensky cannot initiate election and referendum procedures without first reaching an agreement on peace terms with Russia [4]. - The urgency to organize elections is part of a 20-point peace framework being negotiated by Ukrainian and U.S. representatives [4][6]. Group 3: Challenges to Elections - The timeline for holding elections and referendums in May is considered unrealistic due to the lack of a peace agreement and the logistical challenges involved [6]. - Under the current state of martial law, elections are prohibited, and most Ukrainians oppose voting while the conflict is ongoing [6].

国外 道明证券将美联储下次降息时间点的预测从此前的3月推迟至6月，仍预计今年将累计降息75个基点，降 至终端利率3%。道明证券预计美联储将在6月、9月和12月各进行一次25个基点的降息。该机构首席美 国宏观策略师Oscar Munoz领衔的团队表示，预期中的政策宽松并非源于经济状况恶化，而是随着通胀 逐步回到目标水平，货币政策走向"正常化"的结果。就业前景改善应能让美联储把注意力转向通胀任 务。该机构同时预计，美债收益率今年将会继续下行，10年期收益率至年末将降至3.75%（此前预计为 3.5%）。 3. 野村：高市早苗政府有望加强财政纪律，日元走强 日元相对其他G10及亚洲货币走强。野村外汇研究分析师在报告中指出，日本首相高市早苗在财政政策 上可能变得更加"负责"，这将为外汇市场带来了一定缓解。分析师指出，有关如何为日本的消费税暂时 减免提供资金的讨论正在升温。分析师补充称，政府可能会利用"外汇基金特别账户"的盈余来支持此次 消费税减免。 4. Monex宏观研究负责人：美联储3月降息的可能性已消除 Monex的宏观研究负责人Nick Rees在报告中表示，对于美联储而言，1月美国就业数据表现强劲，"应当 ...

据知情人士向Semafor透露，在周三与参议院共和党人举行的闭门会议上，财政部长贝森特对议员们的 建议表示赞同，即由参议院银行委员会而非司法部介入，对美联储主席鲍威尔展开调查。 其中一位身为议员的消息人士表示，他们将这次交流解读为"试水"，意在观察这种安排能否让北卡罗来 纳州共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯（Thom Tillis）解除对美联储提名人选的封锁。 "他们正试图把这个筹码抛给蒂利斯，看他是否买账，"这位议员说。"但蒂利斯全程不动声色。" 另外，其他人认为这可能是一个不错的妥协方案。一位共和党国会议员表示："特朗普总统想要的是一 场调查，"而希望"银行委员会能满足这一调查意愿"。 但前述第一位议员对此持怀疑态度："如果蒂利斯接受了这个方案，我会感到非常震惊。" 蒂利斯方面拒绝置评。 美国总统特朗普上月提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什接替鲍威尔。自那以后，蒂利斯多次表示他将协助推 进沃什的提名程序，但前提是司法部必须终止对鲍威尔的调查。 "蒂利斯的立场非常明确且公开，那就是只要调查不撤销，他不会投给任何人，"第二位共和党国会议员 说，所以"我们要达成目标的唯一途径就是解决这个问题。"他还表示："我确实认为，也许让委 ...

Economic Growth - The UK GDP grew by 0.1% from October to December last year, maintaining the slow growth rate seen in the third quarter [1] - The Office for National Statistics revised the GDP data for the three months ending in November, indicating a contraction of 0.1% instead of a growth of 0.1% [1] - In December alone, the economy grew by 0.1%, aligning with market expectations, bringing the economic scale back to the level of June 2025 [2] Investment Trends - Business investment showed a significant decline of nearly 3% in the fourth quarter, marking the largest quarterly drop since early 2021, primarily driven by volatile transport investments [1] - The overall weakness in business investment suggests that uncertainty surrounding the budget is hindering investment and spending [2] Sector Performance - The manufacturing sector was the largest contributor to output growth, although automotive production is still recovering from the cyberattack on Jaguar Land Rover in September [2] - The dominant services sector remained flat, while construction output contracted by 2.1% [2] Economic Forecast - The average growth rate for the UK economy in 2025 is projected to be 1.3%, compared to 0.9% for France, 0.7% for Italy, and 0.4% for Germany [2] - The per capita economic growth rate in the UK has contracted by 0.1% for the second consecutive quarter, despite an overall growth projection of 1.0% for the year 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The software sector on Wall Street has faced significant turmoil due to fears that artificial intelligence (AI) will disrupt the industry, culminating in a recent sell-off described as a "collapse" [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Major software companies have seen substantial stock declines, with ServiceNow (NOW) down over 22%, Thomson Reuters (TRI) down over 26%, Intuit (INTU) down over 26%, Snowflake (SNOW) down 18%, and Salesforce (CRM) down over 20% since January 29 [1] - The market logic suggests that AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI may either develop their own software to compete with existing products or enable businesses to easily create custom internal software, both scenarios posing risks to traditional software firms [1] Group 2: Analyst Perspectives - Analysts argue that the panic on Wall Street may be an overreaction, suggesting that AI may not replace all existing software companies but could enhance the services of many legacy firms [1][2] - Jason Ader from William Blair emphasizes the need to differentiate between software companies facing greater risks and those that are more secure, indicating that the current sell-off may not reflect the true value of individual companies [2] Group 3: Challenges for AI Companies - There are significant barriers preventing AI companies from overtaking existing software firms, including the reluctance of enterprises to allocate IT resources for developing custom software unless it offers a critical long-term advantage [3] - The initial development costs of custom software are only part of the equation, and despite the availability of open-source software, the third-party software market has continued to thrive [3] - Ader notes that using AI tools to create new applications may not be practical for companies that already have effective solutions in place [3] Group 4: Integration of AI - AI functionalities are likely to be integrated into existing software, enhancing their capabilities and customer value rather than completely replacing them [4] - Data governance issues also pose challenges, as companies may be hesitant to share proprietary data with AI models, preferring to work with established partners [5] - While some software companies may struggle to keep pace with the evolving AI landscape, those that adapt are likely to thrive [5]

土耳其最高外交官表示，美国和伊朗似乎都准备做出妥协以确保达成核协议，但他警告称，如果把谈判 范围扩大到涵盖德黑兰的弹道导弹计划，除了引发另一场战争外，没有任何意义。 土耳其外长哈坎·菲丹（Hakan Fidan）在调解冲突方面发挥了不可或缺的作用，他在接受《金融时报》 采访时透露，华盛顿方面已发出信号，愿意在要求伊朗停止所有铀浓缩活动这一关键问题上展现灵活 性。 这一条件长期以来一直是达成协议的关键障碍，因为伊朗坚称作为《不扩散核武器条约》的签署国，它 有权进行铀浓缩。 这位土耳其外长还表示，他相信德黑兰真心希望达成一项真正的协议，并将接受对浓缩水平的限制和严 格的核查机制，就像在2015年与美国及其他大国达成的协议那样。 "美国人似乎愿意在明确设定的界限内容忍伊朗的铀浓缩活动，这是积极的，"与其美国、伊朗及地区官 员保持持续联系的菲丹表示。"伊朗人现在意识到他们需要与美国人达成协议，而美国人也明白伊朗人 有特定的底线。硬逼他们是没用的。" 美国总统特朗普关于潜在协议范围的表态喜忧参半。华盛顿此前坚持要求伊朗接受对其导弹计划的限 制，并结束对其代理人（如黎巴嫩真主党和也门胡塞叛军）的支持。但在上周被特朗普描述 ...

她的赌注是，持续的通胀和经济名义增长的加快，将填补未来几年国家财政的任何漏洞。但投资者希望 看到具体的细节。 Ebury市场策略主管Matthew Ryan表示："在公共财政已经极度紧张的情况下，进一步扩大支出和增加债 务发行的威胁将增加风险溢价，并可能引发债券的新一轮抛售和收益率飙升。" 1月份的动荡见证了投资者疯狂抛售债券，导致最长期限的日本国债收益率被推高至4%以上，随着影响 波及全球金融市场，美国财政部长贝森特也发表了令人担忧的评论。 高市早苗本周坚持表示，政府不会通过出售新债券来填补支出缺口，而是称她的政府将审查补贴、特别 税收措施和非税收收入，以寻找"可持续"的资金来源。 三菱日联摩根士丹利证券的首席债券策略师Naomi Muguruma表示："人们对此类措施将如何获得资金， 以及最终是否会诉诸发行赤字弥补债券的担忧正在升温。一个根本性的担忧是减税持续时间超过两年的 风险。" 历史表明这些担忧是有道理的。消费税的引入花费了大约十年的时间，随后的每次上调都导致经济按年 率计算萎缩高达11%。最后两次上调被推迟，表明了提高税收在政治上的困难，这加剧了人们对暂时降 低税收后能否轻松恢复的怀疑。 为政府的 ...