Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential candidacy of Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller for the position of Fed Chair, highlighting his recent warnings about the labor market and his evolving relationship with the Trump administration [2][3][4]. Group 1: Waller's Economic Insights - Waller warned in July that private sector hiring was "approaching stall speed," indicating a potential downturn in the labor market, despite a stable unemployment rate of 4.1% at that time [2]. - His predictions were validated by subsequent weak employment reports in July and August, reinforcing his credibility as an economist [2]. - Waller's ability to articulate a coherent framework for interest rate cuts has enhanced his reputation on Wall Street, distinguishing him from other candidates who may lack such qualities [4]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - Waller's chances for the Fed Chair position appear limited due to his lack of visibility within Trump's inner circle and the political advisors associated with the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement [3]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has begun interviewing candidates for the Fed Chair position, with Waller being one of the three strong contenders mentioned by Trump, alongside Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh [2][3]. - The political climate surrounding the Federal Reserve has become contentious, with Trump expressing dissatisfaction with the institution's traditional independence and targeting Fed officials he disagrees with [3]. Group 3: Waller's Background and Qualifications - Waller's unique background, having spent much of his career in academia before joining the St. Louis Fed, allows him to communicate effectively with diverse audiences [5]. - His experience includes navigating complex economic discussions, which he believes is essential for formulating monetary policy [5][6]. - Waller's previous challenges to economic orthodoxy, particularly regarding interest rate hikes, have drawn both criticism and validation from the economic community [6]. Group 4: Current Economic Context - As of July, most Fed officials were cautious due to inflation remaining above the 2% target for four consecutive years, influenced by tariffs imposed by Trump [6]. - Waller argues that the Fed should focus on preventing labor market deterioration and consider interest rate cuts despite temporary price effects from tariffs [6][7]. - His recent vocal opposition to prevailing economic policies may be seen as a strategic move to position himself favorably for the Fed Chair role [7].

Group 1: Global Market Insights - Goldman Sachs reported that global hedge funds' net purchases of Chinese stocks reached a new high since September 2024, with a 76 basis points increase in positions, marking a two-year peak [1] - ANZ raised its gold price target for the end of 2025 from $3600 to $3800 per ounce, expecting gold to reach nearly $4000 per ounce by June 2026 [2] - Barclays increased its S&P 500 index target for the end of 2025 from 6050 to 6450 points, and for the end of 2026 from 6700 to 7000 points [2] - Deutsche Bank also raised its S&P 500 index target for the end of 2025 from 6550 to 7000 points, citing positive corporate earnings growth and manageable tariff impacts [3] Group 2: Domestic Market Developments - CICC noted that the photovoltaic industry is at a critical observation point for "anti-involution," with operational pressures easing but debt levels remaining high [5] - Tianfeng Securities highlighted that the development of AI servers is driving demand for high-end copper foil, with domestic manufacturers expected to benefit from this growth [6] - CITIC Securities projected that the scale of listed companies' deposits transitioning to wealth management could reach several hundred billion yuan in the next year [7] - CITIC Securities also recommended focusing on companies in the silicon-based materials industry that are extending into high-growth downstream sectors [8] - CITIC JianTou reported that the property management industry is shifting towards high-quality development, with leading companies maintaining strong positions [9] - Huatai Securities indicated that core real estate companies are showing resilience despite the overall market being in a bottoming phase [11] - Zhongtai International expressed a cautious optimism for the capital market in the second half of the year, while maintaining a positive outlook on gold [12]

Group 1 - The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed new sanctions against Israel in response to the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, emphasizing the need to stop the man-made famine caused by the conflict [2][3] - The EU has already suggested suspending future research funding to Israel's private sector due to its military actions in Gaza and the restrictions on aid transport [2][5] - There is significant disagreement among EU member states regarding the sanctions, with countries like Hungary and Germany opposing them, arguing that such measures would hinder communication channels [2][4] Group 2 - The proposed sanctions include targeting Israeli extremist ministers and violent settlers, as well as partially suspending the EU-Israel Association Agreement, which covers trade [3][4] - Von der Leyen acknowledged the difficulty in gaining majority support for the sanctions but urged member states to take responsibility [4] - The EU Commission plans to establish a "Palestinian Donor Group" to provide funding for the reconstruction of Gaza, responding to pressure from various stakeholders, including protests in multiple European cities [5]

Core Insights - The first meme coin ETF in the U.S., the Rex-Osprey Dogecoin ETF (DOJE), is set to launch, marking a significant expansion of regulated crypto products following the success of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs [2][3] - The approval of the Dogecoin ETF indicates a growing institutional interest in meme coins, highlighting their perceived value beyond mere speculation [3][4] Group 1: ETF Launch and Market Impact - The Rex-Osprey Dogecoin ETF will debut on Thursday, with Dogecoin entering the ETF era, following a 17% increase in its value over the past week due to market anticipation [2] - The ETF is distributed by Foreside Fund Services and supported by REX Shares and Osprey Funds, which previously launched a Solana staking ETF [2] Group 2: Institutional Interest and Market Trends - The launch of the Dogecoin ETF is seen as a watershed moment, with industry leaders noting that institutional investors are beginning to recognize the community and cultural value of meme coins [3] - The SEC is currently evaluating numerous other cryptocurrency-focused ETF proposals, with 92 such proposals in the pipeline, indicating a broader trend towards acceptance of digital assets [3][4] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The initial wave of cryptocurrency ETFs focused on Bitcoin and Ethereum, with the upcoming Bitcoin spot ETF launch in early 2024 expected to attract significant capital [4] - The approval of the Dogecoin ETF reflects a shift in the SEC's stance towards digital assets, recognizing tokenization as a financial innovation [4]

Group 1 - Despite inflation hovering around 3%, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week, raising questions about the feasibility of the 2% inflation target [1][2] - The core CPI is projected to rise to 3.1% year-on-year in August, up from 2.9% in July, making a policy easing at such inflation levels a rare occurrence [1][2] - Historical context shows that the last time the Fed eased policy with core PCE inflation at 3% was in the early 1990s, indicating a significant shift in economic norms [1] Group 2 - Hawkish concerns about inflation persist, especially with U.S. federal debt and deficits at historical highs, yet financial markets appear relatively unconcerned [2] - Gold prices have surged nearly 40% this year, reflecting some inflation worries, but overall market sentiment does not seem overly anxious about the Fed's 2% target [2] - The yield curve for 2-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries has steepened by about 70 basis points this year, indicating market dynamics that may not align with traditional inflation fears [2] Group 3 - Consumer inflation expectations have shifted, with the New York Fed reporting a rise in one-year inflation expectations to 3.2%, suggesting that 3% may be replacing 2% as the new target [3] - Surveys indicate that consumers' long-term inflation expectations are stabilizing around 3%, with political influences potentially pushing for a higher target [3] Group 4 - Some analysts argue that the focus on exceeding the 2% inflation target may be misguided, citing that the average CPI over the past two years has been 2.9% [4] - Historical comparisons suggest that a 2% inflation target may no longer be relevant, with calls for a more pragmatic approach to monetary policy [4] - If inflation data reaches 3% and the Fed cuts rates, it could signal a significant shift in monetary policy direction [4]

Recent Key Events - On August 2, 2025, Federal Reserve Governor Kuger announced his resignation, providing Trump an opportunity to appoint a favored candidate within the Federal Reserve [1] - On August 8, 2025, Trump nominated Stephen Milan for the Federal Reserve Governor position, with a Senate committee vote expected this week and a full Senate vote potentially next Monday, allowing Milan to attend the FOMC meeting on September 18 [1] - On August 22, 2025, Powell delivered a speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, signaling a clear dovish stance by shifting the policy focus from "controlling inflation" to "preventing employment risks," interpreted by the market as a precursor to a rate cut in September [1] - On August 23, 2025, the Federal Reserve released the results of its long-term monetary policy framework review, stating it would abandon the average inflation targeting and adopt a "balanced approach" when employment and inflation conflict, acknowledging that employment can exceed maximum levels without posing risks [1] - On August 26, 2025, Trump ordered the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook, who has since filed a lawsuit; on September 10, a U.S. judge temporarily blocked Trump's attempt to fire Cook, issuing an injunction allowing Cook to continue in his role during the lawsuit [1] Future Important Milestones - On September 18, 2025, the Federal Reserve will hold a policy meeting and release new economic forecasts, with the market widely expecting a resumption of the rate cut cycle, particularly following recent weak employment data that has increased expectations for a 50 basis point cut [3] - On October 30, 2025, the Federal Reserve will hold another policy meeting, which will be crucial in determining whether to pause or continue rate cuts, especially if a 50 basis point cut occurs in September [3] - On December 11, 2025, the Federal Reserve will conduct its final policy meeting of the year, which may be pivotal for a potential third (or second) rate cut and will influence market expectations for 2026 policies [3] - In May 2026, the term of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will end, with the option for him to continue as a Federal Reserve Governor until January 31, 2028, if he chooses to remain [3] - In November 2026, the U.S. will hold midterm elections, where a significant Republican victory could challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve, potentially leading Congress to push legislation to undermine its autonomy at the White House's request [3]

美国就业市场的坏消息，可能会促使美联储政策制定者在下周降息。眼下他们最不愿看到的，是通胀再 传坏消息——但或许已别无选择。 即将公布的两份关键物价报告预计将显示，随着美国高关税的影响渗透至经济，通胀仍在上升。8月生 产者价格指数（PPI）与消费者价格指数（CPI）的整体及核心通胀率，均预计出现高于平均水平的涨 幅。 与此同时，美国整体CPI年率可能从2.7%升至2.9%，触及年内高点；被视为"未来通胀更可靠预测指 标"的核心CPI年率则重返3%以上。 最新的坏消息来自一份报告：美国劳工统计局（BLS）高估了2024年4月至2025年3月期间的就业增长， 高估幅度达创纪录的91.1万人。而今年夏季的招聘节奏进一步放缓。 在拜登政府末期及特朗普第二任期初期，就业增长速度大幅放缓，这为美国经济勾勒出一幅截然不同的 图景——相比几个月前，当前经济更脆弱，也更易陷入衰退。 雪上加霜的是，美国正实施数十年来最高水平的关税。这些关税削弱了消费者信心，一定程度上冻结了 企业招聘与投资，还小幅推升了通胀。 定于周三公布的8月PPI预计将显示，整体通胀率与核心通胀率均环比上涨0.3%。该指数旨在捕捉批发 价格变化，即企业间原材料 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Israeli airstrike on Hamas leaders in Qatar has led to a modest increase in oil prices, which is lower than traders' expectations, highlighting the current oversupply of crude oil in the market [2][3]. Oil Market Dynamics - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East typically have a more significant impact on oil prices when demand is high and supply is tight, but currently, investors are more concerned about demand shortages rather than supply shortages [2][3]. - OPEC+ has been gradually increasing production since April, with an agreement to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day in October, contributing to a growing expectation of oversupply in the global oil market [4]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts a significant increase in crude oil inventories in the coming months due to seasonal demand weakening, which is likely to lead to a decline in oil prices [4]. - Global oil production is projected to reach 105.5 million barrels per day, exceeding consumption of 103.8 million barrels per day, indicating a supply surplus [4]. Market Sentiment - The market has become accustomed to recurring conflicts in the Middle East, and unless these conflicts have a direct and sustained impact on supply, traders are unlikely to factor in risk premiums into pricing [3][4]. - The current situation emphasizes that OPEC remains a key player in determining oil market supply, with the potential for price increases dependent on either a reduction in global oil supply or unexpected growth in demand [4].

金银在迭创新高后迎来短期波动，截至10日10:40，纽约金主力合约下跌0.30%，报3670.6美元/盎司；纽 约银逆势小幅上涨0.28%，报41.455美元/盎司。内盘方面，沪金微跌0.03%，收报831.44元/克；沪银下 跌0.80%，报9787元/千克。此次价格波动属于连续冲高后的正常技术性整理，市场整体仍处于强势格 局。 消息面上，美国非农就业数据遭遇自2000年以来最大幅度下修，截至3月的一年间的非农就业人数大幅 下修91.1万，平均每月少增加近7.6万个岗位，休闲酒店、商业服务及零售业成为重灾区。此外，结合6 月、7月、8月三个月的月均新增就业仅2.9万、远低于均衡水平的疲软表现，进一步强化了经济增长放 缓的预期，为特朗普政府施压美联储降息提供了关键依据，市场对年底前降息75个基点的预期概率已接 近70%。同时，数据连续大幅修正引发对官方统计质量及"数据政治化"的担忧，推升避险情绪，将促使 资金涌入黄金等传统保值资产。 地缘局势方面，当地时间9月9日，以色列对卡塔尔发动空袭，出动15架战机打击哈马斯高级领导人，造 成五名成员死亡。白宫称仅在行动前一刻获知并表示遗憾，卡塔尔方面保留回应的权利。此事 ...

特朗普政府声称，在以色列袭击多哈的哈马斯谈判人员前，已将此事通知卡塔尔官员。但这一说法遭到 卡塔尔的驳斥。 周二，以色列空袭卡塔尔首都多哈居民区数小时后，白宫发表了上述声明。卡塔尔一直是美国支持的加 沙停火谈判的主要调解方。 "美国军方已通知特朗普政府，以色列将袭击哈马斯。不幸的是，该目标位于卡塔尔首都多哈的某区 域，"白宫发言人卡罗琳·莱维特（Karoline Leavitt）告诉记者。 "卡塔尔是一个主权国家，也是美国的亲密盟友，它正与我们共同努力、勇敢承担风险推动和平，以色 列单方面轰炸卡塔尔的举动既不利于以色列的目标，也不利于美国的目标，"她说，"但消灭哈马斯（这 个从加沙民众苦难中牟利的组织），是一个值得追求的目标。" 莱维特补充称，特朗普此前已指示其特使史蒂夫·威特科夫（Steve Witkoff）"将即将到来的袭击告知卡 塔尔方面"。 然而，卡塔尔驳斥了这一说法。卡塔尔外交部发言人马吉德·安萨里（Majed al-Ansari）在X平台发表声 明称，"有关卡塔尔政府'提前获知袭击'的说法完全不实"。 "美国官员的来电，是在以色列袭击多哈引发爆炸声的过程中收到的，"安萨里写道。 卡塔尔外交大臣穆罕 ...