Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's current stance on interest rates is influenced by both economic factors and political pressures, with a prevailing expectation of rate cuts rather than increases [1][9][13] - Economic indicators, such as employment data, show a stabilizing labor market, with job growth nearly double expectations and a low unemployment rate of 4.3%, suggesting less need for further rate cuts [5][6] - Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, currently about 1 percentage point higher, and has exceeded this target for five consecutive years, complicating the rationale for continued rate cuts [5][6] Group 2 - The Trump administration's fiscal stimulus and significant capital expenditures in artificial intelligence are expected to impact economic growth positively, potentially leading to a higher neutral interest rate [6][9] - There is a perception that the Fed's dovish stance is increasingly influenced by political factors rather than purely economic data, raising concerns about the independence of the central bank [9][12][13] - The market is beginning to factor in political interventions when pricing interest rate changes, which creates uncertainty for investors and policymakers alike [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the market is overly complacent about the U.S. inflation outlook, making bets on rising inflation pressures significantly attractive [1] - Citigroup's rate trading strategist Benjamin Wiltshire suggests that investors may be underestimating the resilience of U.S. consumption, leading to a likely slight upward revision of market inflation expectations [1] - Wiltshire recommends buying five-year/five-year forward inflation derivatives, arguing that the current pricing level of about 2.5% is too low compared to the persistent core inflation indicator, which remains just below 3% [1] Group 2 - Recent strong U.S. employment data has exceeded market expectations, causing a surge in U.S. Treasury yields and prompting traders to lower their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year [4] - The market's reluctance to price in inflation risks is attributed to disappointment over last year's U.S. tariff policies not quickly translating into inflation [4] - Wall Street remains vigilant about inflationary risks, anticipating that a strong economic recovery in the U.S. could reignite price increases, especially if the next Federal Reserve chair, likely to be Waller, guides policymakers to lower rates more aggressively [4] Group 3 - UBS Group AG's senior trader Ben Pearson indicates that the "inflationary boom" led by the U.S. is one of the most underestimated risks by investors this year [4] - If inflationary pressures materialize, the Federal Reserve may remain inactive in the first half of the year, forcing the market to price in rate hikes for the second half [5] - Lazard's CEO argues that it is reasonable and likely for U.S. inflation to return above 4% by the end of the year [5] Group 4 - The complexity of predicting inflation has increased due to tariff tensions and rapid advancements in emerging technologies [5] - Investors must also contend with geopolitical risks affecting oil prices, particularly from intermittent threats related to Iran [5] - BlackRock's Tom Becker has been increasing short positions in long-term U.S. and U.K. government bonds, expecting strong economic growth and rising commodity prices to exert upward pressure on consumer prices [5] Group 5 - In this uncertain environment, TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) offer a potential hedging mechanism against inflation [6] - Vanguard's senior portfolio manager Brian Quigley notes that TIPS are not without risks, particularly if oil prices fall sharply, which could quickly lower the breakeven point for these securities [7] - Pimco views TIPS as inexpensive insurance against inflation, believing they provide good protection if inflation exceeds the Federal Reserve's target, similar to the past four to five years [7]

在因短暂的政府部分停摆而延期公布之后，美国1月消费者价格指数（CPI）将于今晚21:30出炉。 尽管发布时间较原计划推迟，但多位经济学家认为，此次延后对数据本身的影响有限，这份通胀报告仍将为判断2026年美国通胀路径和货币政策环境提供重 要参考。 总体而言，今晚的数据更可能强化"通胀受控但难以快速回落"的判断。通胀水平虽仍高于目标，但并未显著偏离美联储的可接受区间。在这一背景下，市场 对长期通胀预期依然相对稳定，资产定价更多取决于对通胀结构和中期趋势的判断，而非单一一份CPI数据的短期波动。 经济学家预计，1月CPI环比上涨0.3%，与去年12月持平；同比增速预计回落至2.5%左右，也有部分预测认为仍维持在2.6%附近。剔除食品和能源的核心CPI 环比同样预计上升0.3%，高于12月的0.2%；同比增速预计为2.5%，较此前的2.6%小幅回落。 这意味着，通胀并未重新加速，但降温过程明显放缓。价格压力仍然存在，通胀水平持续高于美联储2%的目标区间。法国Natixis银行首席经济学家克里斯 托弗·霍奇（Christopher Hodge）指出， 美联储正处在一个需要接受"通胀缓慢回落而非迅速回归目标"的阶段，其 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran advocates for interest rate cuts, arguing that the current monetary policy threatens U.S. economic growth, despite tax cuts intended to support expansion [1] - Miran expresses little concern over inflation, citing low housing inflation offsetting price increases in other areas, and suggests that a more accommodative monetary policy is necessary to support the labor market [2] - Miran has consistently called for larger rate cuts in previous policy meetings and was one of the dissenting votes against maintaining the current interest rate range [2] Group 2 - Research from the New York Fed indicates that tariffs imposed during the Trump administration have led to increased costs for U.S. businesses and consumers, with the average tariff rate on imported goods expected to rise significantly by 2025 [3][4] - The burden of high tariffs is primarily borne by U.S. companies and consumers, as exporters do not lower prices in response to decreased demand, instead passing on the costs [4] - The Tax Foundation estimates that the increased tariffs will result in an additional annual expenditure of $1,000 per household by 2025, rising to $1,300 by 2026 [4][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the expectation of a potential agreement between the United States and Iran within a month, as stated by President Trump, who warned of severe consequences for Iran if no consensus is reached [1] - The U.S. has significantly increased its military presence in the region, deploying the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier to the Middle East, while Iran has warned against any military intervention [2] - Netanyahu expressed hope that Trump is creating conditions for a favorable agreement with Iran, emphasizing that any deal must include critical elements for Israel, such as halting Iran's nuclear program and limiting its missile capabilities [3][4] Group 2 - The negotiations between the U.S. and Iran resumed after an eight-month hiatus, with the first talks taking place in Oman, indicating a potential shift in diplomatic relations [1][2] - The core issue in the negotiations remains uranium enrichment, with the U.S. demanding Iran to cease enrichment and transfer high-enriched uranium out of the country, which Iran considers unacceptable [2] - Netanyahu's discussions with Trump also covered broader regional issues, including the fragile ceasefire in Gaza and the overall situation in the region, highlighting the close relationship between Israel and the U.S. [4]

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 特朗普：美国"必须"与伊朗达成协议 特朗普承认准备向中东部署第二支航母打击群 贝森特"松口"：支持参议院接手鲍威尔调查 2025年中国风光发电新增装机再创历史新高 中国对原产于欧盟的进口相关乳制品征收反补贴税 市场盘点 周四，在关键的CPI数据公布前夕，美元指数横盘震荡，日内基本持平，收报96.84。由于AI恐慌重袭引发科技股抛售，美债获避险资金流入，收益率全线下 挫，基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.102%，对美联储政策利率敏感的2年期美债收益率收报3.456%。 由于交易员抛售金属回补股市亏损，现货黄金盘中急挫，最低触及4878.37，最终收跌3.17%，报4922.8美元/盎司；现货白银跌势更猛，尾盘一度下破75美 元/盎司，最终收跌10.64%，报75.26美元/盎司。 随着交易员权衡美伊局势以及IEA下调全球石油需求预测，国际原油回落。WTI原油美盘跌势加速，失守63美元关口，最终收跌3.05%，报62.98美元/桶；布 伦特原油收跌2.97%，报67 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets experienced a significant sell-off, leading to a sharp decline in gold and silver prices as investors liquidated positions to cover losses in the stock market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices plummeted nearly $200 within 30 minutes, closing down over 3% at $4878.37 per ounce, while silver fell nearly $9, closing at $75.26 per ounce, a drop of 10.64% [1]. - The sell-off in precious metals was partly driven by profit-taking after a recent surge in prices, which had been fueled by speculative buying [3][4]. - The sudden drop in metal prices was characterized as a "risk-off" market sentiment, where even safe-haven assets like gold were sold off by investors in need of liquidity [2][4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - The recent volatility in gold and silver prices was attributed to a lack of new catalysts, leading to sharp fluctuations within a narrow range [4]. - Analysts noted that stop-loss orders triggered below $5000 contributed to the rapid decline in prices, indicating a chain reaction in the market [4]. - The overall sell-off appeared to be driven by algorithmic trading and systematic strategies, particularly from Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) reacting to key price levels being breached [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the recent downturn, several banks maintain a bullish outlook on gold, citing ongoing factors such as geopolitical tensions and a shift in global capital from traditional assets [5]. - Major financial institutions like JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank project gold prices to reach between $6000 and $6300 per ounce by year-end [5]. - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming economic data, such as the U.S. core CPI, which is expected to influence Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and potentially support gold prices [5].

Core Viewpoint - Ukrainian President Zelensky emphasized the need for increased pressure on Russia from the U.S. to potentially end the conflict by summer, while the participation of Moscow in upcoming peace talks remains uncertain [2][5]. Group 1: Peace Negotiations - Zelensky stated that Ukraine is ready to participate in the next round of peace talks proposed to be held in Miami, but the outcome depends significantly on U.S. pressure on Russia [2]. - The Kremlin has not confirmed the date for the next round of negotiations but indicated that talks could occur soon, with U.S. officials suggesting a meeting next week [2]. - Previous negotiations held in Abu Dhabi did not yield any breakthroughs, particularly regarding the contentious eastern region of Donbas [4]. Group 2: Political Developments - Zelensky denied reports about plans to announce presidential elections and a referendum on peace agreements on February 24, stating that elections would only occur with adequate security guarantees from the U.S. and Western allies [3][4]. - A source indicated that Zelensky cannot initiate election and referendum procedures without first reaching an agreement on peace terms with Russia [4]. - The urgency to organize elections is part of a 20-point peace framework being negotiated by Ukrainian and U.S. representatives [4][6]. Group 3: Challenges to Elections - The timeline for holding elections and referendums in May is considered unrealistic due to the lack of a peace agreement and the logistical challenges involved [6]. - Under the current state of martial law, elections are prohibited, and most Ukrainians oppose voting while the conflict is ongoing [6].

国外 道明证券将美联储下次降息时间点的预测从此前的3月推迟至6月，仍预计今年将累计降息75个基点，降 至终端利率3%。道明证券预计美联储将在6月、9月和12月各进行一次25个基点的降息。该机构首席美 国宏观策略师Oscar Munoz领衔的团队表示，预期中的政策宽松并非源于经济状况恶化，而是随着通胀 逐步回到目标水平，货币政策走向"正常化"的结果。就业前景改善应能让美联储把注意力转向通胀任 务。该机构同时预计，美债收益率今年将会继续下行，10年期收益率至年末将降至3.75%（此前预计为 3.5%）。 3. 野村：高市早苗政府有望加强财政纪律，日元走强 日元相对其他G10及亚洲货币走强。野村外汇研究分析师在报告中指出，日本首相高市早苗在财政政策 上可能变得更加"负责"，这将为外汇市场带来了一定缓解。分析师指出，有关如何为日本的消费税暂时 减免提供资金的讨论正在升温。分析师补充称，政府可能会利用"外汇基金特别账户"的盈余来支持此次 消费税减免。 4. Monex宏观研究负责人：美联储3月降息的可能性已消除 Monex的宏观研究负责人Nick Rees在报告中表示，对于美联储而言，1月美国就业数据表现强劲，"应当 ...

据知情人士向Semafor透露，在周三与参议院共和党人举行的闭门会议上，财政部长贝森特对议员们的 建议表示赞同，即由参议院银行委员会而非司法部介入，对美联储主席鲍威尔展开调查。 其中一位身为议员的消息人士表示，他们将这次交流解读为"试水"，意在观察这种安排能否让北卡罗来 纳州共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯（Thom Tillis）解除对美联储提名人选的封锁。 "他们正试图把这个筹码抛给蒂利斯，看他是否买账，"这位议员说。"但蒂利斯全程不动声色。" 另外，其他人认为这可能是一个不错的妥协方案。一位共和党国会议员表示："特朗普总统想要的是一 场调查，"而希望"银行委员会能满足这一调查意愿"。 但前述第一位议员对此持怀疑态度："如果蒂利斯接受了这个方案，我会感到非常震惊。" 蒂利斯方面拒绝置评。 美国总统特朗普上月提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什接替鲍威尔。自那以后，蒂利斯多次表示他将协助推 进沃什的提名程序，但前提是司法部必须终止对鲍威尔的调查。 "蒂利斯的立场非常明确且公开，那就是只要调查不撤销，他不会投给任何人，"第二位共和党国会议员 说，所以"我们要达成目标的唯一途径就是解决这个问题。"他还表示："我确实认为，也许让委 ...