特朗普周三将对鲍威尔的施压升级，随后又迅速退缩，这使得美联储独立性问题成为焦点。分析师警 告，若特朗普解雇鲍威尔，将扰乱金融市场并引发严重的法律对峙。 "所有人都看到的这些事，无疑会损害美联储这一机构，但说实话，美联储的独立性就是个神话，"本哈 穆称。 他提到了1965年12月约翰逊与马丁的著名冲突：当时约翰逊召集马丁等美联储官员到他的得州牧场，抱 怨加息会阻碍经济发展。但当时马丁在约翰逊的恳请下仍拒绝让步。 摩根大通、美国银行和高盛的高管都强调了美联储独立性的重要性。 当然，美国利率调整需要联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）多数成员支持，因此任何新任主席都必须说服 同事支持降息。利率预期显示，政策制定者对今年剩余时间的降息前景存在分歧，主要源于对特朗普关 税如何影响通胀的看法不同。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 摩根大通股票衍生品销售团队的伊兰·本哈穆（Ilan Benhamou）在给客户的报告中称，美联储不受政治 压力影响的说法是"神话"，且降息押注将推动美股继续飙升。 "当前我们亲眼所见的一切，几十年来一直在幕后上演，"他写道，并将当前局势与1965年时任总统林登 ·约翰逊（Ly ...

"无论对错，投资者并不认真看待总统关于撤换鲍威尔主席的言论，因为这显然会破坏投资者对其经济 领导力的信心，且几乎注定失败。"投资银行Evercore荣誉董事长拉尔夫·施洛斯斯坦（Ralph Schlosstein）表示，"美联储独立性对我们的经济稳定、美元作为世界储备货币的地位以及全球投资者为 美国赤字融资的意愿都至关重要。" 大型投资者正押注特朗普不会真正兑现其撤换美联储主席鲍威尔的威胁。 据知情人士透露，债券巨头——太平洋投资管理公司（Pimco）虽清楚此举可能引发美国国债市场剧烈 波动，但并未因特朗普的威胁调整持仓。 本周早些时候，这家债券管理机构在致客户报告中驳斥了特朗普要求美联储主席辞职及施压央行立即降 息的举动，称"这两者似乎都不太可能实现"。 其他投资者和银行家表示，任何撤换鲍威尔的举动都可能引发市场震荡，损害美债等资产的信心，从而 让特朗普三思而行。多位大银行CEO也警告，破坏美联储独立性可能带来危险后果。 Pimco在报告中指出，共和党在参议院的微弱优势（53席）可能给确认程序带来变数。该公司特别提到 北卡罗来纳州共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯（Thom Tillis）不再寻求连任，且与特朗普关系 ...

围绕美联储及其陷入困境的主席，最新动态是：一名特朗普政府官员周三证实，总统前一天与共和党议 员会面，讨论解雇鲍威尔的事宜。该官员称特朗普计划很快采取行动，但随后特朗普否认了这一点。 据报道，前美联储理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）周四呼吁全面改革美联储的运作方式，并建议与财政 部建立政策联盟。他是美国总统特朗普的美联储主席候选人之一。 "我们需要在政策执行方面进行'机制变革 '（regime change），"沃什在接受CNBC《Squawk Box》采访 时表示，"在我看来，可信度缺失的问题出在美联储的现任官员身上。" 在美联储现任官员中，作为领导者的主席鲍威尔一再引发特朗普的不满，即使没有被提前解雇，他在 2026年5月任期结束时也肯定不会获得连任。 沃什在三到四名下任美联储主席候选人的名单上，他的多项观点与特朗普对美联储的诉求一致。后者一 直要求美联储下调基准利率，并因鲍威尔不推动降息而敦促其辞职。 沃什的言论表明，若他执掌美联储，不仅会与鲍威尔的领导方式产生分歧，还可能与留任的美联储成员 产生冲突。 "我认为，他们迟迟不降息，实际上……是一大污点，"沃什说，"他们在通胀问题上的失误阴影挥之不 ...

美国众议院周四通过稳定币法案（即《GENIUS法案》），为这一与美元挂钩的加密货币代币建立监管 框架，该法案将提交给美国总统特朗普，预计他将签署使其成为法律。 众议院去年曾通过一项稳定币法案，但当时由民主党占多数的参议院未对该法案进行审议。 特朗普在总统竞选期间获得加密货币行业资金支持后，一直寻求全面改革美国加密货币政策。然而，国 会山对特朗普各类加密货币项目的紧张情绪，曾一度威胁到数字资产行业今年的立法希望，因为民主党 人对特朗普及其家人推广个人加密货币项目日益不满。 特朗普的加密货币项目包括1月推出的迷因币$TRUMP，以及他部分持股的加密货币公司"世界自由金 融"（World Liberty Financial）。 众议院议员还通过了另外两项加密货币法案，下一步将提交参议院审议。其中一项法案为加密货币制定 了监管框架（即《CLARITY法案》），另一项则禁止美国发行央行数字货币。 《GENIUS法案》和《CLARITY法案》均获得了显著的两党支持。民主党议员与共和党人一起以308票 赞成、122票反对通过了稳定币法案。 稳定币是一种旨在维持恒定价值（通常与美元1:1挂钩）的加密货币，常被加密货币交易者用 ...

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 欧盟拟新增对美服务关税及出口管制 美联储理事沃勒重申七月应降息 特朗普再次发帖呼吁美联储降息 美国住房主管：议员将指控鲍威尔涉嫌作伪证 美国6月零售销售创今年3月以来新高 超豪华小汽车消费税起征点下调至90万元 现货黄金在美国"恐怖数据"大超预期后跳水，一度跌破3310美元关口，随后跌幅有所收窄，最终收跌0.25%，收报3347.6美元/盎司；现货白银反弹更加显 著，最终收涨0.62%，报38.14美元/盎司。 市场盘点 周四，随着围绕鲍威尔解雇风波的紧张情绪有所平息，且美国经济数据强劲，美元指数走高，最终收涨0.37%，报98.61。美债收益率涨跌不一，基准的10年 期美债收益率收报4.457%，2年期美债收益率收报3.913%。 由于美国经济数据缓解了人们对石油需求恶化的部分担忧，国际油价止步三连跌。WTI原油站上66关口，最终收涨1.33%，报66.31美元/桶；布伦特原油收 涨1.66%，报68.9美元/桶。 美股三大股指集体收涨，道指收涨0.5%、标普 ...

美联储理事库格勒周四表示，美联储"在一段时间内"不应降息，因为特朗普政府的关税影响开始传导至 消费者价格，需要采取紧缩的货币政策来控制通胀预期。 库格勒指出："无论总体通胀还是核心通胀，在过去六个月都没有取得进展。" 美联储将于本月召开会议，预计政策制定者将把基准利率维持在目前4.25%至4.5%的区间。这将是美联 储自去年12月暂停一系列降息以来，连续第五次会议维持利率不变。 此后，尽管特朗普对此感到不满，但焦点已转向特朗普政府的贸易及其他政策将对通胀、就业和经济增 长产生的影响。美联储政策制定者表示不愿恢复降息，除非他们更确定关税只会导致一次性的价格调整 （正如政府官员所声称的），而不会引发更持久的通胀。 库格勒由前总统拜登任命进入美联储，她的央行任期将于明年1月结束，这留下一个空缺。特朗普政府 可能会利用这个空缺，在鲍威尔任期于明年5月结束时，任命一名替代者。 （文章来源：金十数据） 库格勒在华盛顿特区一次住房论坛上准备发表的讲话中指出，鉴于失业率稳定且处于低位，以及通胀压 力正在积聚，她认为"将政策利率维持在当前水平一段时间是合适的。"她强调："这种仍然具有限制性 的政策立场，对于稳定长期通胀预期至关 ...

Core Insights - The latest USDA drought report indicates that various major agricultural regions in the U.S. are experiencing drought conditions ranging from moderate (D1) to extreme (D3) as of July 15, 2025, significantly impacting grain, cash crops, and livestock [1] Grain Sector - Durum Wheat: 41% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week, but up 35 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Spring Wheat: 36% of the production area is under drought conditions, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous week and up 28 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Winter Wheat: 30% of the production area is under drought conditions, an increase of 4 percentage points from the previous week and up 6 percentage points year-on-year [5] - Corn: 9% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 3 percentage points from the previous week but up 4 percentage points year-on-year [6] - Soybeans: 7% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous week but up 2 percentage points year-on-year [7] - Barley: 59% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week but up 33 percentage points year-on-year [8] - Sorghum: 7% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week but down 14 percentage points year-on-year [9] - Rice: 1% of the production area is affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week and the same as last year [10] Cash Crop Sector - Cotton: 3% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week but down 16 percentage points year-on-year [11] - Peanuts: 1% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week and down 14 percentage points year-on-year [12] - Sunflowers: 8% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week and up 5 percentage points year-on-year [13] - Sugarbeets: 39% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week and up 36 percentage points year-on-year [14] - Sugarcane: 30% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week and up 30 percentage points year-on-year [15] Livestock Sector - Hay: 18% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous week but up 2 percentage points year-on-year [16] - Alfalfa Hay: 30% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous week and up 13 percentage points year-on-year [17] - Cattle: 15% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous week and unchanged year-on-year [18] - Sheep: 29% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week and up 9 percentage points year-on-year [18] - Milk Cows: 22% of the production area is under drought conditions, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous week and up 10 percentage points year-on-year [19] - Hogs: 4% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous week and down 3 percentage points year-on-year [19]

Core Viewpoint - The return of President Trump to the White House is seen as a positive development for the gold market, with several key factors likely to support gold prices in the coming months, potentially making gold a core asset class in investors' portfolios [1]. Group 1: Central Bank Demand - There is a significant increase in demand for gold from central banks, particularly from BRICS nations like China and India, as part of a broader strategy to de-dollarize [1]. - The People's Bank of China has been accumulating gold reserves for eight consecutive months, indicating a weakening confidence in the US dollar [1]. Group 2: De-dollarization and Trade Policies - Trump's global tariff policies are accelerating the de-dollarization process, reducing reliance on the US dollar as a reserve currency [2]. - The decline in credit quality of developed countries, including the US, is raising concerns in the market, especially after Moody's downgraded the US credit rating [2]. - Trade policies, such as large budget deficits or increased tariffs, are expected to decrease demand for US Treasury bonds, thereby supporting gold prices [2]. Group 3: Interest in Gold ETFs - The decline in yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds, along with inflationary pressures, is reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading to a resurgence of interest in gold ETFs and other alternatives [3]. - In the first half of 2025, North America led the global inflow of funds into gold ETFs, with a total inflow of $38 billion in the first half of this year, marking the strongest performance since the first half of 2020 [3]. Group 4: Technical Indicators and Market Sentiment - Gold prices have remained above $3,250 per ounce for most of June, indicating potential upward momentum as market volatility returns [3]. - The current macroeconomic environment supports the view that gold is not just a crisis hedge but is becoming a core asset class in modern investment strategies [3].

"历史告诉我们，货币政策执行的独立运作是必要的，"沃什周四接受CNBC采访时强调，"但这并不意味着美联储在所有事务上都应保持独立。" 特朗普正在考虑明年5月鲍威尔任期结束后提名新主席人选，而沃什的立场转变恰逢特朗普施压美联储降息的声浪达到顶峰。 SHMET 网讯： 美联储前理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）近日公开表示，美联储的独立性对货币政策实施"至关重要"，但他同时指出，在鲍威尔领导下，美联储已越权涉足 其缺乏权威的政策领域。 实战考验 2006年，35岁的沃什被小布什任命为美联储史上最年轻理事。金融危机期间，他协助促成富国银行收购美联银行，并主导了2008年秋季向九大银行注资数千 亿美元的计划。 芝加哥大学教授兰德尔·克罗兹纳（Randall Kroszner）评价："那是动荡时期，沃什经历了实战考验。" 如今，沃什主张对美联储进行彻底改革。他在福克斯新闻上呼吁："我们需要的是美联储的政权更迭，这不只关乎主席人选，而是需要更换一批人。必须打 破固有思维，因为现行模式已经失效。" 他批评美联储的经济预测模型过时、忽视货币供应量作用，且政策沟通过于频繁且短视。 美国银行指出，26%的人认为美国财长贝森 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. retail sales for June increased by 0.6% month-over-month, rebounding from a sharp decline of 0.9% in May and significantly exceeding market expectations of a 0.1% increase [1] - The data indicates that 10 out of 13 retail categories experienced growth, driven by a rise in automobile sales, which had previously been declining [4] - Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy, remains a focal point for investors and policymakers, especially in light of concerns over rising prices due to tariffs [4] Retail Sales Performance - The June retail sales data has been seasonally adjusted but not inflation-adjusted, suggesting that the growth may be influenced by price increases rather than actual sales volume [5] - Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, retail sales rose by 0.5%, with May's figure revised down to 0.2% [5] Consumer Sentiment - Despite the recent uptick in retail sales, there are indications of a pessimistic outlook among Americans regarding their economic and financial conditions, largely due to ongoing cost-of-living pressures exacerbated by tariffs [4] - Some analysts caution that the growth in retail sales may be partially attributed to price hikes driven by tariffs rather than an increase in consumer demand [5]