AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 黄金铂金比创下50年来最大两个月跌幅 走势——而无论如何，这都意味着未来数月美股前景显著恶化。 赫伯特上一次提及该比率是在3月初，当时市场普遍预测新一轮熊市降临，但因黄金铂金比彼时处于强 劲上升趋势，其追随者仍保持看涨，事实证明他是对的。标普500指数此后累计上涨约8%。 过去数年的大部分时间里，该比率一直处于稳定上升趋势，但自4月中旬以来，铂金价格飙升超40%而 黄金持稳略跌，导致黄金铂金比骤降，这对股市短期前景而言绝非吉兆。 研究作者称，该比率之所以能成为良好的短期市场择时指标，是因为它是地缘政治风险的敏感替代指标 ——尽管黄金和铂金均具工业用途且往往在经济强劲时上涨，但黄金与地缘政治风险存在相关性。因此 当该比率下跌时，意味着市场认为经济相对地缘风险而言更为强劲。 人们可能会对此感到惊讶：为何黄金铂金比下跌暗示市场前景黯淡？若经济相对地缘风险更强，难道不 是好事吗？要理解这一问题，需区分该比率作为同步指标与领先指标的差异：作为同步指标，比率下跌 时股市往往表现优于平均水平，这正是我们过去两个月所经历的；而作为领先指标时，情况则相反—— 当比率下跌时，投资者对先前高企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "OBBBA" bill, which focuses on comprehensive tax reform and targeted incentives, has passed the Senate with a narrow vote of 51-49, expected to expand the federal deficit, drawing warnings from rating agencies and criticism from various parties, while some banks believe it could boost the U.S. economy [2] Advantages - The OBBBA is seen as crucial for extending the expiration of key tax provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which, if left unaddressed, could suppress household consumption and business investment [3] - The bill allows for faster capital investment deductions, potentially enhancing investment in the coming years, although it may sacrifice future investment [3] - Analysts from Citigroup anticipate that the passage of the bill, along with recent trade agreements, will improve growth sentiment, and they expect the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy [3] Disadvantages - Critics highlight concerns over the projected increase of at least $3 trillion in the deficit over the next decade, as estimated by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office [4] - Morgan Stanley points out that while the tax provisions may benefit key sectors, they could raise concerns about fiscal sustainability [4] - Erica York from the Tax Foundation criticizes the bill as irresponsible fiscal policy that will significantly increase budget deficits and debt, noting that many tax cuts are poorly designed and may create administrative burdens for the IRS [4]

Group 1 - The hacker known as "Robert," linked to Iran, has threatened to release more stolen emails related to Trump's circle ahead of the 2024 U.S. elections, claiming to possess around 100GB of data [1] - The U.S. Department of Justice has charged the Iranian Revolutionary Guard with operating the "Robert" hacking operation, although the hacker did not respond to this accusation during discussions with Reuters [2] - Following recent military actions involving the U.S. and Iran, the hacker has resumed contact with the media, indicating plans to sell the stolen emails and encouraging Reuters to publicize the matter [2] Group 2 - The leaked emails include communications between Trump's campaign team and Republican candidates, as well as details of settlements with adult film star Stormy Daniels, but did not fundamentally alter the outcome of the previous election [2] - Experts suggest that Iran's cyber operatives may be attempting to retaliate without provoking further military action from the U.S. and Israel, indicating a strategic approach to their cyber activities [2] - U.S. cybersecurity officials have warned that American businesses and critical infrastructure operators may still be targets for Iranian cyber attacks, despite a period of low-profile activity from Iranian hackers during recent conflicts [2]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Predictions - Goldman Sachs anticipates the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September instead of December, citing lower-than-expected inflation impacts from tariffs [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts three rate cuts of 25 basis points each in September, October, and December, adjusting the terminal rate forecast to 3-3.25% [1] - Morgan Stanley analysts believe the likelihood of rate cuts in the upcoming meetings remains low, with most Fed officials supporting a cautious stance [2] Group 2: Corporate Profitability and Tariffs - Goldman Sachs highlights that U.S. corporate profit margins will face significant challenges in the upcoming earnings season due to the direct impact of tariffs, which have increased costs by approximately 10 percentage points since the beginning of the year [1] - The report indicates that while most of the increased costs are expected to be passed on to customers, if companies are forced to absorb higher-than-expected costs, profit margins will be under pressure [1] Group 3: Currency and Economic Data - Analysts from Deutsche Bank suggest that the outlook for the U.S. dollar depends on the underlying reasons for rate cut expectations, with potential short-term rebounds if inflation impacts from tariffs are limited [3] - Dutch International Group anticipates that upcoming U.S. economic data, particularly the non-farm payroll report, may provide support for the dollar index, limiting its decline [4] Group 4: Commodity Prices and Market Trends - CITIC Securities maintains a bullish outlook for copper prices, predicting they will rise to $10,000-$11,000 per ton in the second half of the year, supported by stable economic growth in China and the U.S. [6] - The report emphasizes that the copper market remains tight, with limited upstream production and a need for further macroeconomic policy support to sustain price increases [6] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Baosheng Group suggests that while the U.S. stock market presents unique opportunities, diversifying investments into Europe, China, and India may yield better value and risk-adjusted returns [5] - The report highlights the attractiveness of U.S. corporate sectors, particularly selected tech stocks, defensive stocks, and high-dividend stocks [5]

在大举挖掘人工智能人才的推动下，Meta Platforms(META.O)股价周一创下历史收盘新高。华尔街注意 到，这家科技巨头正加快在AI领域的布局。 Meta股价当日上涨0.6%，收于738.09美元，突破了此前2月14日创下的736.67美元收盘纪录。当天盘中 最高曾触及747.90美元，创下历史新高。 《华尔街日报》报道称，Meta上周从OpenAI位于瑞士苏黎世的办公室挖来三位研究员，其中包括Lucas Beyer、Alexander Kolesnikov和Xiaohua Zhai，Beyer已在社交平台X上确认此事。 此外，据《The Information》报道，Meta上周五还招募了多名技术人员加入其超级智能团队，彭博社亦 确认他们为新团队成员。 对此，OpenAI首席研究官马克·陈（Mark Chen）在一封员工备忘录中表示，他正与OpenAI CEO山姆·奥 特曼（Sam Altman）共同商讨人才保留策略。据《Wired》报道，陈在信中写道："我现在的感受，就像 有人闯进我们家偷走了什么东西。请相信，我们并没有坐以待毙。" 与此同时，据《金融时报》报道，Meta正寻求筹集290亿美元， ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of bank stocks has outpaced the market in 2025, with Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) showing significant gains compared to the S&P 500 index [2][3] Group 1: Bank Performance - Goldman Sachs' stock price has increased by 23% year-to-date, while JPMorgan Chase has risen by 22%, compared to a 5.1% increase in the S&P 500 index [2] - Following the Federal Reserve's "health check" report on the banking system, bank stocks continued to perform strongly, with Goldman Sachs being the largest gainer among the top six U.S. banks, rising 2.5% on Monday [3] - The financial sector ETF, Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF), also rose by 0.8%, with a year-to-date increase of 8.4% [6] Group 2: Stress Test Results - The Federal Reserve's stress test results indicated that the U.S. banking system remains robust even under simulated recession conditions, with strong pre-provision net revenue (PPNR) and reduced counterparty losses [2] - Analysts noted that Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo (WFC.N), and M&T Bank (MTB.N) are expected to see a more significant decline in their future capital buffers compared to other banks, potentially allowing for more capital to be released for lending, stock buybacks, or dividends [2][3] - The average common equity tier 1 capital ratio for the 16 largest banks is projected to decline by 100 basis points, with Goldman Sachs experiencing a drop of 240 basis points, the largest among the banks covered by Jefferies [3] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts have indicated that while capital requirements are expected to decrease, it may not lead to immediate large-scale shareholder returns, as banks are likely to observe the new norms before making significant decisions [6] - Some banks may adjust their dividend increases or seek regulatory reviews, which could impact the final capital buffer requirements [5]

洛克菲勒国际主席Ruchir Sharma表示，近来，"美国例外论终结论"突然成为热门话题。特朗普的政策、 美元走弱以及美股今年创下自1987年以来与国际竞争对手的最大表现差距，似乎都在佐证这一观点。 然而，令人意外的是，尽管华盛顿和中东局势动荡，美国股市仍在顽强攀升，债券价格亦同步上涨。市 场的表现似乎在暗示，美国并未衰落，而是全球其他地区正在迎头赶上。 这种市场韧性被许多人视为盲目乐观的结果，甚至有观点认为美股即将陷入"2025年的悲观周期"。但历 史经验表明，当市场与评论者的分歧如此之大时，往往是市场更接近真相。那么，市场究竟看到了什 么？ 年初时，市场曾担忧美国在人工智能领域的领先地位可能被DeepSeek超越，但这一论调如今已烟消云 散。美国AI股持续创下历史新高，全球十大AI平台中有八家来自美国，其中ChatGPT独占鳌头。 高估值背后的支撑 目前，美股估值仍处于历史高位，而数据显示，特朗普的政策尚未对通胀或经济增长产生实质性影响。 此前市场最担忧的是其对等关税政策可能推高通胀并抑制增长，但现实恰恰相反——通胀低于预期，经 济增长却高于共识预测。关税收入确实流入了美国财政部，但并未显著推高消费者价 ...

Core Points - The Trump administration is shifting from ambitious comprehensive trade agreements to narrower, phased agreements to avoid the reimplementation of tariffs by July 9 [1][2] - The government aims to reach "principled agreements" on a few trade disputes, allowing countries that agree to avoid harsher tariffs while maintaining existing 10% tariffs during ongoing negotiations [1][3] - The dual-track strategy of threatening new tariffs while remaining open to agreements highlights the complexities of negotiations with the Trump administration [2][3] Trade Negotiations - The U.S. is currently negotiating with key countries to finalize limited agreements before the July 9 deadline, which Trump has indicated will see the reimposition of tariffs if no agreements are reached [1][3] - The U.S. Commerce Department has initiated national security investigations under Section 232 for various goods, including copper, lumber, and aerospace components, which adds uncertainty to ongoing trade discussions [2][3] - Countries involved in serious trade negotiations with the U.S. are seeking exemptions from existing tariffs, including a 25% tariff on automobiles and a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum [2] Legal and Regulatory Context - Recent court rulings have declared Trump's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs as illegal, injecting further uncertainty into trade negotiations [4] - The administration has appealed these rulings, but the outcome may affect the dynamics of ongoing and future trade discussions [4]

"一种必胜的感觉已经悄悄潜入了很多交易员和活跃投资者的心态中，"盈透证券首席策略师Steve Sosnick在6月16日的一次采访中说。"而且这是可以理解的，因为你为什么不呢？我的意思是，每一次 下跌……都可以被看作是一个买入机会。" 而现在随着市场重返历史高位，许多华尔街人士主张股市将在年底前继续走高。Fundstrat的全球技术策 略主管Mark Newton指出，许多基金经理都以像标普500指数这样的大型股指为基准。Newton认为，随 着这些指数反弹回历史高位，跑赢市场的压力越来越大，基金经理需要"迎头赶上"。 总的来说，股市基本上对这些担忧不以为意，投资者继续逢低买入并推高股价。 "市场仍然倾向于看涨情绪，"嘉信理财交易与衍生品策略师Joe Mazzola在一次采访中说。"所以我认为 你看到的是，投资者正在寻找那些在回调时买入的机会。" 或许没有比特朗普4月2日的"解放日"关税声明更能证明市场韧性的了。标普500指数在三天内下跌超过 10%，这次暴跌的严重程度仅次于二战以来最糟糕的十大抛售。但在大约一个月内，该基准指数就回到 了声明发布前的水平，因为市场为特朗普的各种关税延迟而欢呼。 大量回流股市的 ...

Group 1 - Ray Dalio emphasizes the need for bipartisan cooperation to address the U.S. "deficit/debt bomb" through a mix of tax increases and spending cuts [1] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that Trump's tax and spending plan could add nearly $3.3 trillion to the U.S. deficit over the next decade [1] - Dalio warns that excessive government debt could lead to a hollow economy that fails to serve citizens and deter global investors [1] Group 2 - The U.S. is projected to generate about $5 trillion in revenue this year while spending $7 trillion, resulting in a $2 trillion deficit [2] - Interest payments on the debt are expected to reach $1 trillion, with the government needing to issue approximately $12 trillion in debt next year [2] - Dalio suggests that to restore fiscal health, the budget deficit must be reduced from 6.5% of GDP to 3% through spending cuts, tax increases, and lower interest rates [2] Group 3 - Dalio believes that the government is likely to resort to printing money when faced with difficult choices regarding debt management [3] - He advises investors to hedge against inflation risks and diversify their portfolios [3] Group 4 - Dalio advocates for inflation-protected securities (TIPS) as a safe investment for risk-averse individuals seeking inflation protection [4] - He states that TIPS can provide returns slightly above the inflation rate, making them an attractive option [4] Group 5 - Gold is highlighted as another preferred investment by Dalio, serving as a time-tested store of value and providing diversification and inflation protection [5] - He recommends allocating 10% to 15% of an investment portfolio to gold as a prudent strategy [5]