Group 1 - Ray Dalio emphasizes the need for bipartisan cooperation to address the U.S. "deficit/debt bomb" through a mix of tax increases and spending cuts [1] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that Trump's tax and spending plan could add nearly $3.3 trillion to the U.S. deficit over the next decade [1] - Dalio warns that excessive government debt could lead to a hollow economy that fails to serve citizens and deter global investors [1] Group 2 - The U.S. is projected to generate about $5 trillion in revenue this year while spending $7 trillion, resulting in a $2 trillion deficit [2] - Interest payments on the debt are expected to reach $1 trillion, with the government needing to issue approximately $12 trillion in debt next year [2] - Dalio suggests that to restore fiscal health, the budget deficit must be reduced from 6.5% of GDP to 3% through spending cuts, tax increases, and lower interest rates [2] Group 3 - Dalio believes that the government is likely to resort to printing money when faced with difficult choices regarding debt management [3] - He advises investors to hedge against inflation risks and diversify their portfolios [3] Group 4 - Dalio advocates for inflation-protected securities (TIPS) as a safe investment for risk-averse individuals seeking inflation protection [4] - He states that TIPS can provide returns slightly above the inflation rate, making them an attractive option [4] Group 5 - Gold is highlighted as another preferred investment by Dalio, serving as a time-tested store of value and providing diversification and inflation protection [5] - He recommends allocating 10% to 15% of an investment portfolio to gold as a prudent strategy [5]

Group 1 - Elon Musk criticizes the massive tax spending bill pushed by Trump, labeling it as the "DEBT SLAVERY bill" and threatening to target fiscal conservatives who support it in the upcoming primaries [1][2] - Musk's comments come as the Senate votes on numerous amendments to the bill, which could be passed without Democratic support through budget reconciliation [1][3] - The bill proposes to raise the debt ceiling by a record $5 trillion and eliminate federal subsidies for wind and solar projects, which directly impacts Tesla's energy business [2][3] Group 2 - Musk's influence may be more significant in the House of Representatives due to the shorter election cycle compared to the Senate, potentially altering the primary landscape with substantial campaign funding [2] - Concerns arise among Republicans about Musk's fluctuating relationship with Trump and its potential impact on their chances in the 2026 midterm elections [3]

据外媒报道，苹果(AAPL.O)正在考虑使用Anthropic或OpenAI的人工智能技术来为新版Siri提供支持。这 一潜在的重大转向，可能意味着苹果将暂时搁置自研模型，试图扭转其陷入困境的AI战略。 据知情人士透露，苹果已与这两家公司就使用其大型语言模型进行讨论，并要求他们训练可在苹果云基 础设施上运行的模型版本以进行测试。如果苹果最终决定采用第三方模型，这将是一个重大的转变，也 表明苹果在生成式AI领域面临竞争压力。 在与Anthropic和OpenAI的讨论中，苹果要求定制版本的Claude和ChatGPT，使其能够在苹果的私有云 服务器上运行。苹果认为，使用自己的芯片和云服务器可以更好地保护用户隐私。然而，苹果与 Anthropic在初步财务条款上存在分歧，nthropic要求多年期、逐年递增的数十亿美元授权费用，谈判 进展受阻，这可能导致苹果转向与OpenAI或其他公司合作。 眼下，苹果大多数AI功能仍由自研的"Apple基础模型"驱动，公司原计划在2026年推出基于自家技术的 全新语音助手。然而，Siri自2011年推出以来，已经落后于流行的AI聊天机器人，其升级计划也因工程 问题和延迟而受阻。 ...

Core Insights - The projected soybean planting area in the U.S. for 2025 is 83.4 million acres, slightly below market expectations of 83.65 million acres, and a decrease of 4% year-over-year [2][3] - The projected corn planting area for 2025 is 95.2 million acres, representing a 5% increase year-over-year, marking the third-highest level recorded since 1944 [3] - The projected wheat planting area for 2025 is 45.5 million acres, a decrease of 1% year-over-year, with winter wheat area slightly increasing from previous estimates [3] - The projected cotton planting area for 2025 is 10.1 million acres, a significant decrease of 10% year-over-year [3] Planting Area Summary - Soybean planting area is expected to decrease, with 25 out of 29 states showing reduced or stable planting [3] - Corn planting area is expected to increase, with 41 out of 48 states showing increased or stable planting [3] - Wheat planting area is expected to decrease, with a notable increase in winter wheat area compared to previous forecasts [3] - Cotton planting area is expected to decrease significantly, with dryland cotton area also showing a reduction [3] Inventory Summary - As of June 1, 2025, U.S. old crop soybean inventory totals 1.008 billion bushels, an increase of 4% year-over-year [6] - U.S. old crop corn inventory totals 4.644 billion bushels, a decrease of 7% year-over-year [6] - U.S. old crop wheat inventory totals 851 million bushels, an increase of 22% year-over-year [6]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, now expecting a cut in September instead of December, citing weaker-than-expected inflation impacts from tariffs [1] - The Goldman Sachs economic research team, led by Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, believes the probability of a September rate cut is slightly above 50%, influenced by factors such as weaker tariff effects and a softening labor market [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts rate cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December, lowering the terminal rate expectation from 3.5%-3.75% to 3%-3.25% [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley disagrees with Goldman Sachs, stating that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in the near term remains low, despite market expectations increasing for a September cut [1] - Morgan Stanley analysts believe that most Federal Reserve officials support a cautious stance and are unlikely to quickly endorse rate cuts, anticipating a relatively stable upcoming employment report [1] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed skepticism about the possibility of a 1970s-style stagflation occurring in the current economic environment, given the current unemployment and inflation rates [2] Group 3 - Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects one rate cut in 2025 and three cuts in the following year, indicating a patient approach to maintaining current rates due to a stable labor market [3] - Bostic noted that the full impact of Trump's trade tariffs on the economy has yet to be felt, suggesting that price impacts are more a matter of timing than certainty [2]

Core Points - The EU is willing to accept a trade arrangement with the US that includes a 10% universal tariff on many export goods, while seeking lower tax rates on key industries such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors, and commercial aircraft [1] - The EU is pushing for the US to provide quotas and exemptions to effectively reduce the 25% tariff on cars and auto parts, as well as the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum [1] - The EU must reach a trade arrangement with Trump by July 9, or face a potential increase in tariffs on nearly all exports to the US to 50% [1] - The EU and the US are increasingly optimistic about reaching a temporary agreement before the July 9 deadline, allowing negotiations to continue beyond the deadline [2] - The EU is seeking to address non-tariff barriers through a simplified agenda and has proposed exploring strategic procurement in areas like liquefied natural gas and artificial intelligence [2] - The EU estimates that US tariffs currently cover about 70% of its exports to the US, amounting to approximately €380 billion [3] - The EU has prepared countermeasures, including tariffs on €21 billion worth of US goods, in response to Trump's metal tariffs, targeting politically sensitive US states [4] - An additional tariff list targeting €95 billion worth of US products is also prepared, focusing on industrial goods such as Boeing aircraft and American-made cars [4] - The EU will assess any final results of the negotiations and decide on the acceptable level of asymmetry in the agreement [5]

美联储博斯蒂克：仍然预计今年会有一次降息，明年将有三次降息 白宫：特朗普本周将与贸易团队会面，以确定国家关税税率 贝森特：特朗普考虑明年初任命鲍威尔的继任者，有现任理事是候选人 特朗普：由于油价低迷，预计（乌克兰）将可以与俄罗斯达成停火协议 马斯克：若"大而美"法案通过，则第二天就在美成立新政党 国家统计局：6月份，制造业PMI为49.7%，较上月上升0.2个百分点 财政部：境外投资者以分配利润直接投资符合条件的，可按照投资额的10%抵免相应税额 证监会logo更新，由套环改为三个V字形环抱 我国进一步深化金融服务新型工业化的相关政策有望研究出台 市场盘点 周一，美元指数日内震荡下行，跌破97关口，最终收跌0.49%，报96.77。值得注意的是，美元指数已经连续第六个月收跌，创上世纪70年代初以来最大上半 年跌幅；基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.228%，2年期美债收益率收报3.723%。 男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 受助于美元走弱，现货黄金有所回升，并收复3300美元大关，最终收涨0.8 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, expressed confidence in the advancement of Trump's comprehensive tax bill, expecting it to be signed before July 4 [2] - Becerra described the legislation as the "beginning of addressing the debt issue" and opposed the idea of cutting Medicaid programs [2] - He criticized the previous administration's reliance on short-term debt issuance and indicated a preference for a different strategy moving forward [2][3] Group 2 - Becerra noted that the current 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.26%, while the 2-year and 12-month yields are 3.73% and 3.81%, respectively [2] - He anticipates that as inflation slows, yields across all maturities may decline, suggesting a parallel downward shift in the yield curve [2] - On trade issues, Becerra stated that tariffs have not yet caused inflation and expects a flurry of trade agreements to be signed before the July 9 deadline [3]

美元此轮暴跌使其有望创下1973年15%跌幅以来的最差半年表现，也是2009年以来最弱的六个月周期。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 随着特朗普的贸易和经济政策促使全球投资者重新考虑他们对全球第一大储备货币的敞口，美元兑英 镑、欧元、日元等一篮子六种货币汇率的美元指数今年迄今跌幅超10%，创1973年布雷顿森林体系解体 以来最差上半年表现。 荷兰国际集团（ING）外汇策略师弗朗西斯科·佩索莱（Francesco Pesole）称："美元成了特朗普2.0版反 复政策的代罪羔羊。" 与年初华尔街预测欧元将与美元平价不同，欧元兑美元年内已涨13%至1.17上方，因投资者聚焦美国经 济增长风险，同时德国国债等安全资产需求上升。 他补充称，特朗普时断时续的关税战、美国庞大的举债需求及对美联储独立性的担忧，已削弱美元作为 投资者避险资产的吸引力。 周一早些时候美元再度走低，因美国参议院准备就特朗普"美丽大法案"修正案投票。这项里程碑式立法 预计未来十年将使美债增加3.2万亿美元，加剧市场对华盛顿偿债能力的担忧，引发美债市场的外资撤 离潮。 虽然降息预期助美股摆脱贸易战与地缘政策风险的干扰并再创历 ...

Core Viewpoint - Foreign investors are diversifying their portfolios and reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds due to concerns over rising deficits and inflationary tariffs, which are diminishing the attractiveness of U.S. debt [2][4]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bonds and Foreign Investment - The U.S. national debt has quadrupled to approximately $36 trillion in less than a decade, with public holdings around $29 trillion [3]. - In April, foreign capital saw a net outflow of $14.2 billion from U.S. Treasury bonds and the banking system, influenced by Trump's tariff policies [2][3]. - Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt at $1.13 trillion, followed by the UK at $807.7 billion and China at $757.2 billion [3]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Fiscal Policy - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that Trump's tax cuts and spending measures will increase U.S. debt by $3.3 trillion, leading to a downgrade in the U.S. credit rating by Moody's [2]. - The Senate is expected to pass a bill that may save $500 billion by using alternative calculations that do not account for the extension of the 2017 tax cuts [4]. Group 3: Shift to European and Other Markets - European bonds, particularly German and French debt, are becoming more attractive to investors as U.S. deficits expand, with Germany maintaining a debt-to-GDP ratio below 100% [4]. - The market for German bonds is expected to strengthen, creating better opportunities for equity markets and increasing the issuance of risk-free German and pan-European bonds [4]. Group 4: Long-term Trends in Investment Behavior - Foreign investors are reducing their U.S. Treasury holdings as part of a long-term structural trend towards diversification rather than a sudden withdrawal [5]. - Concerns over U.S. risk premiums are anticipated to lead to a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, as investors demand higher returns for holding U.S. debt [6].