Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to continue strengthening in 2025, with two specific ETFs, IGIB and AGG, providing potential investment opportunities for exposure to the U.S. investment-grade fixed-income market [1]. Cost & Size Comparison - IGIB has an expense ratio of 0.04% and AGG has a slightly lower expense ratio of 0.03% - As of January 24, 2026, IGIB's 1-year return is 4.65% while AGG's is 3.2% - IGIB offers a dividend yield of 4.58%, compared to AGG's 3.88% - The assets under management (AUM) for IGIB is $17.6 billion, while AGG has a significantly larger AUM of $136.78 billion [2][3][4]. Performance & Risk Comparison - Over the past five years, IGIB experienced a maximum drawdown of -20.64%, while AGG had a drawdown of -17.83% - The growth of a $1,000 investment over five years would result in $883 for IGIB and $857 for AGG [5]. Portfolio Composition - AGG has a 22-year track record and tracks the total U.S. investment-grade bond market with 13,067 holdings, 74% of which are AA-rated bonds [6]. - IGIB focuses on U.S. dollar-denominated investment-grade corporate bonds with maturities of 5 to 10 years, with 44.29% of its holdings in A bonds and 49.18% in BBB bonds [7]. Investment Implications - Despite IGIB's higher dividend yield, AGG pays a higher monthly dividend due to its higher price - AGG's focus on higher-rated bonds makes it a less risky investment, while IGIB carries more risk due to its lower-rated bonds but offers higher potential yields [8][9]. - The choice between these ETFs depends on whether investors prefer a high-risk/high-reward strategy or a more conservative approach [10].

Core Viewpoint - Coinbase is positioned for growth in 2026, driven by clearer U.S. crypto regulations and increasing institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies [1] Financial Performance - In Q3, Coinbase reported $1.9 billion in revenue, $801 million in adjusted EBITDA, and $433 million in net income [2] - The subscription and services segment generated $747 million, accounting for nearly 40% of total revenue [2] - Management anticipates Q4 subscription and services revenue to be between $710 million and $790 million, indicating a shift towards more stable revenue streams [3] Business Mix Improvement - Coinbase Institutional is a key custodian for U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, handling nine out of eleven Bitcoin ETFs and eight out of nine Ethereum ETFs in 2024 [4] - Major institutional clients like BlackRock and Pantera Capital are utilizing Coinbase Prime, leading to increased custody and brokerage fees [4] New Revenue Sources - The Ethereum Layer-2 network, Base, is emerging as a significant revenue source, processing transactions faster and at lower costs [5][6] - Coinbase earns revenue through sequencer fees on the Base network and benefits from additional services used by developers and users [7] Growth Opportunities - Derivatives trading, which constitutes 80% of total crypto trading volume, represents a substantial growth opportunity [8] - The acquisition of Deribit, a leading crypto options platform, contributed $52 million to revenue in Q3, with plans to integrate various trading options [8] Valuation Insights - Coinbase's stock trades at approximately 36.1 times forward earnings, reflecting a premium valuation justified by a diversified revenue mix [9] - The revenue is increasingly derived from recurring sources rather than solely from spot trading, although the stock remains sensitive to market conditions [9] Investment Consideration - Long-term investors confident in cryptocurrency adoption may consider a small stake in Coinbase ahead of its upcoming earnings report [10]

Core Insights - GameStop has seen significant insider buying from CEO Ryan Cohen, who purchased 500,000 shares at an average cost of approximately $21.12, totaling over $10.5 million, indicating bullish sentiment towards the company [3] - The company is attempting to pivot its strategy as its traditional brick-and-mortar video game business declines, while also exploring new avenues such as collectibles and cryptocurrency [2][4] Financial Performance - GameStop's hardware business has experienced a 5% decline, while its software revenue has plummeted by 27% year-over-year; however, the collectibles segment has seen a remarkable 55% revenue growth [4] - The company has improved its operating cash flow and reported diluted earnings per share of $0.67, a significant improvement from the previous year [5] - GameStop's current market capitalization stands at $10 billion, with a trading multiple of approximately 2.3 times revenue and close to 22 times forward earnings [7][8] Market Position and Analyst Outlook - Only one Wall Street analyst covers GameStop, projecting nearly $1 of EPS in 2026 and total revenue of $4.16 billion, indicating potential year-over-year growth [8] - Despite improvements, the earnings multiple appears high for a company still stabilizing its revenue, particularly in its largest business segment [9]

Core Viewpoint - The memory shortage is expected to persist until 2027, creating significant opportunities for semiconductor companies, particularly Micron Technology, which is currently undervalued compared to its peers despite strong growth prospects [1][9]. Industry Overview - There is a notable mispricing in the semiconductor industry, with investors favoring companies like Nvidia with higher P/E ratios, while undervaluing Micron Technology despite its faster earnings growth [2][4]. - The cyclical nature of the memory market contributes to Micron's lower valuation, but the demand for memory in AI chips is driving substantial growth for the company [3][5]. Company Performance - Micron's shares are trading at a forward P/E of 11, significantly lower than Nvidia's 24 and AMD's 35, indicating an attractive valuation [4]. - Wall Street analysts forecast Micron's earnings to grow at an annualized rate of 50% over the next few years, surpassing AMD's 45% and Nvidia's 36% [5]. - Earnings are projected to surge 294% this year to $32.67 per share, followed by a 27% increase next year to $41.54 per share, driven by rising memory prices and demand for GPUs [6][7]. Market Dynamics - Revenue for Micron increased by 57% year over year last quarter, with earnings rising by 175%, indicating strong momentum [7]. - The memory shortage is expected to be exacerbated by Nvidia's upcoming Rubin chips, which will require higher memory bandwidth, benefiting Micron [9]. Future Outlook - The current demand for advanced memory products appears sustainable, with management indicating strong customer commitments for high-bandwidth memory through 2026 [10]. - The low valuation of Micron relative to its earnings suggests potential for further upside in the coming years [10].

Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing is experiencing significant challenges in the quantum computing sector, particularly regarding accuracy and technology advancement, despite a recent rise in stock price and some positive analyst ratings [1][8]. Company Performance - Rigetti's stock price has seen a notable increase of over 45% in 2025 and more than 10% in 2026, but current market sentiment suggests caution [1][2]. - The current stock price is $23.45, with a market capitalization of $7.7 billion [2]. Technology and Competitiveness - Rigetti's quantum computing systems are reported to be over 1,000 times faster than those of competitor IonQ, but the company struggles with accuracy, achieving a two-qubit gate fidelity of only 99.5%, compared to IonQ's 99.99% [2][4]. - The company has not advanced to Stage B of the Quantum Benchmarking Initiative by DARPA, indicating a setback in its technological standing [5]. Challenges in Quantum Computing - Quantum computing systems, including those from Rigetti, are highly error-prone due to the instability of qubits, which are susceptible to external factors like vibrations and temperature changes [3]. - Rigetti's delay in launching its new 108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q system is aimed at improving its error rate, highlighting ongoing challenges in achieving reliable performance [5]. Analyst Sentiment - Some analysts have expressed optimism about Rigetti, with Rossenblatt Securities initiating coverage with a "buy" rating and B. Riley upgrading the stock following an $8.4 million order from India's Centre for Development of Advanced Computing [7]. - Despite these positive mentions, the overall assessment suggests that Rigetti remains significantly behind its competitors in the quantum computing race [8].

Core Insights - The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) offers a pathway to potentially reach $800,000 through consistent investments over time, emphasizing the importance of patience in investing [1][5]. Investment Rationale - SCHD tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index, focusing on companies with financial stability and strong cash flow, which results in a portfolio of reliable, established businesses rather than high-growth, volatile firms [3]. - The ETF's top five holdings include Lockheed Martin (4.63%), Chevron (4.19%), Merck & Co. (4.11%), Home Depot (4.07%), and Bristol Myers Squibb (4.05%), showcasing a focus on sectors like energy and industrials [3]. Performance Metrics - Since its inception in October 2011, SCHD has averaged annual total returns of 12.6%, with projections indicating that a monthly investment of $500 could grow to over $800,000 in approximately 25 years, assuming a consistent 12% annual return [5][6]. - The ETF has maintained an average dividend yield of around 2.8% since inception and 3.2% over the past decade, suggesting that an $800,000 investment could yield $24,000 annually [6].

Core Insights - TJX Companies has demonstrated strong resilience in the off-price retail sector despite macroeconomic challenges [1][3] - The company's effective inventory acquisition strategy allows it to provide name-brand products at lower prices, which has supported customer traffic and sales growth [2][3] Financial Performance - TJX stock has appreciated approximately 24% over the past year, with same-store sales increasing by 5% year-over-year in fiscal Q3 [2][3] - Gross margin improved to 32.6% from 31.6%, indicating effective cost management [2] Market Position - While other retailers are experiencing declining traffic and margins, TJX's sourcing strategies and infrastructure have proven advantageous [3][6] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the difficulties faced by competitors in the retail industry [6] Valuation Metrics - TJX has a market capitalization of $170 billion and trades at about 33 times this year's expected earnings [5] - The stock's dividend yield is approximately 1.1%, which may not be attractive for income-focused investors [5][6]

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is viewed as a potential growth catalyst for businesses, with generative AI expected to enhance productivity and reduce overhead costs [1] - There is a prevailing belief among investors that a single powerful AI tool could replace multiple enterprise software packages, leading to a decline in share prices for many software stocks [2] Group 1: ETF Performance and Components - The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) has experienced an 18% decline from its peak last fall, yet revenue growth among its components remains strong, indicating a net positive impact from AI [3] - The ETF includes major companies benefiting from AI excitement, such as Microsoft, Palantir Technologies, and Oracle, which together represent about 25% of the ETF's value [4] - Other top holdings like Salesforce, Intuit, and Adobe have faced negative impacts on their earnings multiples due to fears of AI displacing their software [5] Group 2: AI Integration and Market Sentiment - Concerns regarding the displacement of enterprise software by generative AI applications are considered exaggerated, as specialized software remains essential for specific tasks [6] - Most software providers are actively integrating AI capabilities into their products, enhancing competitiveness and increasing revenue per seat [8] - Companies like Microsoft and Palantir have seen significant sales growth from integrating generative AI into their offerings, with Palantir's AI Platform rapidly expanding its use cases [9] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - For investors seeking exposure to the software industry, the iShares ETF offers a straightforward investment option, especially as the current narrative around AI may shift towards tangible financial results [10]

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's success heavily relies on its cloud computing division, Amazon Web Services (AWS), which is expected to drive stock performance in 2026 after a challenging 2025 due to high valuation concerns [1][2]. Group 1: AWS Performance - AWS is starting to reaccelerate its growth, with a revenue increase of 20% year over year in Q3, marking the best growth rate in several years [6]. - Despite AWS accounting for only 18% of Amazon's total sales, it generated 66% of the company's operating profits in Q3, highlighting its importance to overall profitability [4][6]. - The cloud computing segment has strong operating margins, reported at 35% in Q3, contrasting with the thin profit margins typical in retail [4]. Group 2: Valuation and Market Position - Amazon's stock valuation has improved, now trading at 29 times forward earnings, aligning it more closely with other major tech stocks, which typically trade around 30 times forward earnings [8]. - The stock gained only 5% in 2025, but with the valuation issue resolved, there is optimism for a stronger performance in 2026 [2][7]. - The current market cap of Amazon is $2.6 trillion, with a gross margin of 50.05%, indicating a robust financial position [6].

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway may be divesting its stake in Kraft Heinz, indicating a strategic shift under new CEO Greg Abel, potentially addressing past investment missteps by Warren Buffett [1][2]. Company Overview - Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio is valued at $267 billion, with Kraft Heinz being the ninth-largest holding, representing approximately 3.2% of the portfolio [2]. - Berkshire Hathaway owns about 325 million shares of Kraft Heinz, valued at approximately $8.5 billion, making it the largest shareholder with a 27.5% ownership stake [2]. Kraft Heinz Performance - Kraft Heinz's stock price has significantly declined from over $90 per share in 2017 to around $22.40 per share, reflecting a 10-year average annualized return of about -11% [8]. - The company has faced challenges since its merger in 2015, which was initially valued at $46 billion, and has been described as "doomed from the start" due to various issues [5][7]. Recent Developments - Kraft Heinz filed an 8-K document indicating the potential resale of up to 325,442,152 shares by Berkshire Hathaway, which would represent the entirety of its position [4]. - The decision to potentially sell comes after Kraft Heinz announced a split back into two separate public companies, a move that disappointed Buffett [9][10].