Core Insights - Bill Ackman, founder of Pershing Square Holdings, has made significant portfolio moves, concentrating investments in high-conviction stocks, particularly in the tech sector [1][4] - Ackman has exited his position in Chipotle Mexican Grill and allocated approximately 10% of his portfolio to Meta Platforms, reflecting a strategic shift towards AI investments [2][4] Investment in Meta Platforms - Pershing Square has acquired a stake of roughly $2 billion in Meta Platforms, representing nearly 10% of the fund, following a sell-off after Meta's third-quarter earnings report [4][6] - Meta's stock price fell from around $750 to below $600 post-earnings but has since recovered to the high $600s, with Pershing's cost basis at approximately $625 per share [6] Meta's Financial Performance - Meta reported accelerating revenue growth, with Q3 growth at 26%, up from 16% in Q1, although Q4 growth slightly decelerated to 24% due to the comparison with elevated political ad spending in the previous year [9] - The company is trading at 21.8 times 2026 earnings estimates, which is in line with the S&P 500, but the core business, excluding Metaverse spending, trades at only 18 times earnings, indicating a potential undervaluation [11] AI Investment Strategy - Ackman believes that Meta's significant investments in AI will enhance engagement on its platforms, allowing for increased ad effectiveness and revenue growth [8][9] - The potential for AI investments to create a competitive advantage is significant, as Meta is one of the few large tech companies capable of investing heavily in AI infrastructure [13] Market Position - Meta's social media platforms boast over 3.5 billion daily active users, providing substantial network effects, yet the stock is trading at a discount compared to the overall market [12]

Core Insights - The stock market is experiencing significant momentum driven by artificial intelligence (AI) investments, with major companies planning to spend up to $650 billion this year on AI-related infrastructure [1][2]. AI Infrastructure Companies - **Nvidia**: Recognized as a leading AI stock, Nvidia's GPUs are essential for data centers, performing complex AI tasks. The company reported record revenue of $57 billion in its last fiscal quarter, with $51.2 billion from the data center segment [4][5]. Demand for its Blackwell GPUs remains strong, and new Vera Rubin chips are expected this year [7]. - **Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC)**: TSMC is a key player in chip manufacturing, producing over 11,800 products using 288 processes in 2024. The company has seen a shift in its revenue, with chips smaller than 7 nanometers accounting for 63% of shipments by Q4 2025 [8][9]. - **Nebius Group**: This Dutch company focuses on building AI data centers and plans to expand its power capacity from 220 megawatts to between 800 megawatts and 1 gigawatt by the end of this year. Nebius has contracts worth up to $19.4 billion with Microsoft and $3 billion with Meta Platforms [10][11][13]. - **Digital Realty Trust**: As a real estate investment trust (REIT), Digital Realty operates over 300 data centers and reported a revenue increase of 14% year-over-year, reaching $1.6 billion in Q4. The company offers a dividend yield of 2.8% [14][15]. - **Credo Technology Group**: Specializing in Active Electrical Cables (AECs), Credo's technology enhances data transfer efficiency in data centers. The company reported a revenue increase of 272% year-over-year, with expectations of $335 million to $345 million in revenue for the next fiscal year [16][19].

Core Viewpoint - The software sell-off in the market is viewed as illogical by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who believes that concerns about AI replacing software companies are misplaced [1][3]. Industry Overview - The S&P North American Technology Software Index has declined by 30% from its record high in September, entering bear market territory, primarily due to fears surrounding artificial intelligence [1][2]. Company Analysis: Shopify - Shopify is an e-commerce software provider that enables merchants to manage sales across various platforms, including physical and digital stores [5]. - The company has been recognized as a leader in digital commerce by Gartner, highlighting its rapid innovation and enterprise-grade reliability [6]. - Shopify is actively integrating AI into its operations, having collaborated with Google on the Universal Commerce Protocol, which has led to a 15x increase in orders from AI search since January 2025 [7]. - Currently, Shopify trades at 75 times adjusted earnings, with earnings expected to grow by 30% in 2026, and a price-to-sales ratio of 10, which is below its three-year average of 14 [8][9]. - Analysts project a median target price of $162.50 per share for Shopify, indicating a potential upside of 55% from its current price of $105 [10]. Company Analysis: AppLovin - AppLovin specializes in adtech software, initially focusing on mobile gaming and recently expanding into web-based advertising with a self-service platform [11]. - The company’s Axon machine learning ad engine is noted for its effectiveness, providing a 45% higher return on ad spending compared to Meta Platforms and a 115% higher return compared to other platforms [12][13]. - AppLovin is currently valued at 38 times earnings, with projected earnings growth of 50% in 2026, and analysts have set a median target price of $710 per share, suggesting a 92% upside from the current price of $370 [14].

Core Insights - The first-mover advantage for pure-play quantum computing stocks may be short-lived as competition increases from larger tech companies [1][16] - Quantum computing represents a significant global economic opportunity, estimated to create between $450 billion and $850 billion by 2040 [5][6] - Despite impressive stock rallies, the commercialization of quantum computing is still in its early stages, with risks of overestimation of adoption and optimization [12][11] Company Performance - As of mid-October, stocks of IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. have seen increases of up to 6,200% over the past year [2] - These companies have been buoyed by practical applications of quantum technology and partnerships with major clients [6][8] - JPMorgan Chase's $1.5 trillion Security and Resiliency Initiative includes quantum computing as a key investment area, signaling potential growth [9] Market Dynamics - Quantum computing is projected to be a $850 billion market, though it cannot match the multitrillion-dollar market of AI [5] - Major tech companies, referred to as the "Magnificent Seven," are investing heavily in AI and are likely to extend their reach into quantum computing [17][19] - The entry barrier for quantum computing is relatively low, allowing larger companies to potentially overshadow pure-play stocks [16][19] Risks and Challenges - The commercialization of quantum computing is still nascent, with widespread adoption not yet realized [12] - Share-based dilution is a significant risk, as these companies have collectively issued over $4.1 billion in stock to raise capital [13] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with larger companies already making strides in quantum technology, posing a threat to the longevity of pure-play stocks [18][19]

Core Insights - Emerging brands are showing strong competitive positioning that can lead to long-term growth opportunities [1] - Identifying these brands early can uncover significant investment potential, despite the volatility in their stock prices [1] E.l.f. Beauty - E.l.f. Beauty has seen a stock decline of 67% but continues to be a leading cosmetics brand with a strategy focused on premium products at competitive prices [4][6] - The company has grown its trailing-12-month revenue from $578 million to $1.52 billion over the past three years, indicating strong growth [5] - In the recent quarter, net sales increased by 38% year over year to $489 million, despite a challenging consumer spending environment [8] - E.l.f. Beauty's market cap is currently $4.4 billion, with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 24, which is considered reasonable for a fast-growing brand [8] On Holding - On Holding's stock has decreased by 29% from recent highs, but the brand shows significant growth potential with a 35% year-over-year sales increase on a constant-currency basis [9] - The company has a market cap of $15 billion and a forward P/E of 26, which is attractive given its sales and earnings growth exceeding 30% year over year [13] - On Holding maintains strong pricing power, indicating a durable brand that can sustain premium pricing without resorting to discounts [11][12]

Core Insights - Both Amazon and MercadoLibre have faced challenges primarily due to their non-e-commerce businesses, impacting their stock price growth over the past year [2][10] - The choice between investing in Amazon or MercadoLibre depends on the investor's risk tolerance [15][16] Amazon - Amazon's cloud computing arm, AWS, is its main profit source, contributing significantly to operating income despite only accounting for 18% of total revenue in 2025 [4] - The company plans to allocate $200 billion to capital expenditures in 2025, following a $132 billion spend in 2025, which has raised concerns among investors [5] - Amazon generated $11 billion in free cash flow in 2025 and has $123 billion in liquidity, allowing it to invest in growth [9] - Amazon's net sales grew by 12% in 2025, and its market cap is approximately $2.25 trillion [11][12] MercadoLibre - MercadoLibre's fintech business, Mercado Pago, has become a key growth driver but is currently facing issues with non-performing loans, with provisions for doubtful accounts increasing by 58% to over $2.1 billion in the first nine months of 2025 [6][10] - The company experienced a revenue surge of 37% in the first nine months of 2025, significantly outpacing Amazon's growth [12] - MercadoLibre's market cap is around $102 billion, allowing for potentially faster growth due to its smaller size [11][13] Investment Considerations - For risk-averse investors, Amazon's liquidity and potential in AI make it a more suitable choice despite high capital expenditures [15] - For those willing to take on higher risks, MercadoLibre may be a better option due to its ability to navigate challenges and its potential for rapid growth [16]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock has experienced a remarkable increase of 1,190% since the beginning of 2023, driven by the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), but there are concerns about future growth and competition [1][2] AI Adoption and Market Dynamics - Major cloud providers, including Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet, have emphasized their commitment to AI, with significant increases in capital expenditures to enhance AI capabilities [4][5] - Palantir Technologies reported a 70% year-over-year revenue growth, with U.S. commercial revenue increasing by 137%, indicating strong demand for AI solutions [7] - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) reported a 26% year-over-year revenue growth, driven by robust AI-related demand, and achieved its highest monthly revenue ever in January [8][10] Wall Street Sentiment - A near-universal bullish sentiment exists among Wall Street analysts regarding Nvidia, with 94% rating the stock as a buy or strong buy, and no sell recommendations [11] - Evercore ISI analyst Mark Lipacis has set a price target of $352 for Nvidia, suggesting potential gains of 85% for investors, citing the company's strong position in the evolving AI landscape [12] Valuation and Investment Perspective - Nvidia's stock has seen a 9% decline from its late-October peak due to competition concerns, but it now trades at less than 25 times forward earnings, which is considered attractive for a leading company in the AI sector [14] - The combination of strong market demand and Nvidia's execution track record supports the view that the stock remains a buy [15]

Core Viewpoint - Opendoor Technologies is showing signs of progress under new CEO Kaz Nejatian, with a focus on restructuring and improving operational efficiency despite challenges in the real estate market [1][5]. Company Performance - The stock price of Opendoor rose significantly in 2025, increasing by 1,800% in less than three months, but has since declined [1]. - The company is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings on February 19, marking the first full quarter under the new CEO [2]. - Revenue has declined by 34% year over year in the third quarter, with inventory dropping from 6,288 to 3,319 homes [6]. Strategic Changes - Nejatian is implementing changes such as cutting costs, utilizing artificial intelligence, and focusing on increasing transaction volume [5]. - The company has shifted responsibilities back to management from outside consultants, aiming for better internal control [5]. Market Conditions - The iBuying model of Opendoor has struggled due to high mortgage rates, although there are signs that the market may be improving [4]. - Weekly homes under contract have shown an upward trend, with a peak of 303 contracts in the last week of January [9]. Investor Insights - A new website has been launched for investors to track real-time progress, providing updates on contracts and operational improvements [9]. - The current market cap of Opendoor is $4.2 billion, with a gross margin of 8.01% [8].

Core Viewpoint - USA Rare Earth is positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for rare-earth metals, particularly for applications in electric vehicles, electronics, and clean energy technology, amid a strategic push for a domestic supply chain in the U.S. [1][2][6] Company Overview - USA Rare Earth controls the Round Top Mountain in Texas, which is rich in rare-earth metals essential for manufacturing powerful magnets [2][7] - The company has gained 62% in stock value in 2026, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which has only increased by 1.7% [3] Government Support - The Trump administration plans to invest $1.6 billion for a 10% stake in USA Rare Earth, supporting its mining operations and a magnet manufacturing facility in Oklahoma [3][9] - The company has secured a total of $3.1 billion in funding in 2026, including the government investment [9] Market Dynamics - The demand for permanent magnets, particularly neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB), is driving the opportunity for USA Rare Earth, as these magnets are critical in various applications [6][8] - The Round Top deposit contains significant reserves of heavy rare-earth metals, which are rarely found in the U.S., enhancing the company's competitive edge [7] Risks and Challenges - The company faces potential market pressure from China, which could flood the market with rare-earth metals, impacting pricing [9] - USA Rare Earth is currently pre-revenue and targets commercial production by 2028, with its magnet facility expected to be operational by early 2026 [9][10] Investment Considerations - The stock is considered suitable for investors with a high risk tolerance, as its future upside is linked to continued policy support and successful execution of its plans [10] - Investors optimistic about the long-term viability of a domestic rare-earth supply chain may find the stock appealing [10]

Core Viewpoint - USA Rare Earth is considered a speculative growth stock with potential for long-term gains despite current market volatility and uncertainty [1][2] Group 1: Company Overview - USA Rare Earth is a pre-revenue company focused on rare-earth mining and processing, with significant time needed before generating substantial revenue [2] - The company is developing the Round Top deposit site in Texas, which contains 15 of the 17 rare-earth elements, and is constructing a rare-earth magnets production facility in Oklahoma [6] - USA Rare Earth has acquired Less Common Metals, an existing producer of rare-earth metals, to enhance its operational capabilities [6] Group 2: Financial Position and Funding - The total estimated cost for USA Rare Earth's projects is $4.1 billion, with approximately $1.5 billion raised in equity and a letter of intent for $1.6 billion in government funding [7] - The company currently has around $343 million in cash and requires an additional $650 million to complete its funding needs, indicating potential future shareholder dilution [7] - Despite the need for additional funding, the company's current market cap stands at $5.1 billion, suggesting that dilution will be relatively minimal [7] Group 3: Future Projections - Management has revised long-term projections, anticipating annual revenue of $2.6 billion and EBITDA of $1.2 billion by 2030 [8] - Leading mining companies typically trade at enterprise value/EBITDA ratios of 9x to 10x, implying that USA Rare Earth could achieve an enterprise value of $12 billion in the future [9] - The stock price could potentially double over the next few years, assuming the company effectively utilizes future cash flows to manage federal loans [9] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Long-term investors may view any share price dips as opportunities to accumulate positions, with a target entry price below $25 per share [11] - The stock may experience volatility and periods of weakness due to market conditions and the multi-year timeline for project completion [10]