朋友們大家好，大家早上中午晚上好 這裡是提阿非羅，現在是2025年 7月16日華爾街午盤時間 我們來更新比特幣的行情 這個是比特幣的日線圖，從日線級別來看 昨天是一根陰線 那麼下影線還是有那麼一點點 還算是可以 但是你可以留意 這個下面的成交量 真的是有一點點的多 那麼你可以看到原先在這樣的一些地方 成交量是比較的多 我是有點擔心來到這個上面 為什麼有那麼多的拋壓呢 我是覺得從這樣的很多拋壓來看 好像比較難 馬上就上去 我是有這樣的一個感覺 如果說那麼大的拋壓一天就消耗完了 我覺得可能有一點不太現實 有可能會在這邊進行一段時間的盤整 那麼我在這邊還畫了一個低點 如果說這一帶跌破一下可能會比較的好 因為這個下面你可以看日線級別來說 是直接漲上去 還沒有經過充分的換手 我會覺得它有可能來獵殺一下多頭的止損 這個是日線級別 我們來看一小時級別，這個是一小時級別 我們可以看到好像來到前面的次前高 因為我昨天也標注出來這個次前高 有很多的人設定止損 那麼會來到一下 但是好像要這樣子漲上去嗎 我個人是覺得 如果說再下來一些 可能會比較好 那是為什麼 因為我是覺得你可以看到 如果說畫一個小波浪的感覺 一個兩個三個 然後就這 ...

Market Analysis - Bitcoin's daily chart shows a less-than-ideal close followed by a continued downward trend, cautioning against chasing highs at $120,000 due to potential pullbacks [1] - High trading volume during pullbacks, rather than a healthy reduction in volume, suggests significant selling pressure [1] - A large trading volume accompanying a failed breakout from a consolidation zone indicates potential large-scale selling [1] - Negative funding rates on Bybit Bitcoin USD perpetual contracts often signal a relative low point, while high funding rates suggest over-eagerness to chase highs, potentially leading to corrections [1] - The analyst is closely monitoring a specific level for a potential dip below followed by a quick recovery, which could present a long opportunity; failure to recover would raise concerns about market structure [1] Trading Strategy - The analyst suggests that a drop below a key low point, followed by a swift recovery, could be a buying opportunity, indicating a continuation of the upward trend [2] - The analyst is wary of shorting Bitcoin unless a clear breakdown and confirmation occur, preferring to wait for a confirmed bearish signal before taking a short position [2] - The analyst notes that many traders are currently shorting Bitcoin, and suggests that a break below a significant low could trigger more short selling, presenting an opportunity to take a contrarian long position [2] Altcoin Analysis - Ethereum appears slightly stronger than Bitcoin, with decent trading volume, but the analyst cautions that Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin while Bitcoin struggles is a potentially dangerous sign [2] - The analyst suggests that if Ethereum continues to rise, some altcoins may experience a rally, but the analyst is closely monitoring Bitcoin's ability to continue its upward trend [2]

Market Analysis & Bitcoin (BTC) - The analyst notes Bitcoin's (BTC) price surge, breaking the $100,000 - $110,000 resistance level, suggesting a potential support zone at that range if the market adapts to the $120,000 level [1] - Concerns arise regarding the lack of volume supporting the breakout, potentially leading to a MACD divergence on the weekly chart [1] - The analyst points out the high funding rates on Bybit's BTC perpetual contracts, indicating a crowded long position, which historically precedes corrections or consolidation [1][2] - The analyst suggests potential buying opportunities when funding rates are negative or when there is strong negative sentiment [1] Trading Strategy & Risk Management - The analyst expresses reluctance to chase the rally without a clear entry point, citing concerns about a potential "volume-less" surge [1] - The analyst anticipates a consolidation phase for Bitcoin (BTC), potentially testing lower support levels, and identifies a possible pullback target [1] - The analyst suggests that a break below the previous high point of 2878.54% on the Ethereum (ETH) chart would trigger a short position [2] - The analyst emphasizes the importance of monitoring order book data on Bybit's BTC perpetual contracts to identify potential bearish divergences [2] Ethereum (ETH) Analysis - Ethereum (ETH) has touched the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, and its ability to hold above the previous high is crucial for further upside [2] - The analyst notes a successful sweep of lows on Ethereum (ETH) during the weekend, creating a potential long opportunity [2]

Market Analysis - Bitcoin's weekly chart suggests a strong bullish trend, potentially forming a continuation head and shoulders pattern, currently testing the neckline [1] - The analyst notes a VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern) formation in Bitcoin, characterized by decreasing downward回调幅度 and shrinking成交量, indicating potential upward breakout [1] - Ethereum shows an AMD pattern (likely referring to a specific technical analysis pattern), with a three-stage upward expectation, currently approaching the 0.06% level [2] - Trump Coin (川普币) is showing a potential shift from a downtrend to an uptrend, but its stability is questionable due to its reliance on the former president's actions [2] Trading Strategy - The analyst suggests holding long positions if already in profit, and waiting for consolidation and potential stop-loss hunting before re-entering [1] - For Ethereum, the analyst advises against shorting unless it falls back below a certain level, suggesting a potential 5:1 or 4:1 profit-loss ratio for short positions if the pattern fails [2] - The analyst suggests caution due to high funding rates, indicating a potential pullback before further upward movement [2] Risk Management - The analyst emphasizes the importance of clear stop-loss levels, particularly for Ethereum trades [2] - The analyst advises against chasing the price at current levels, suggesting potential consolidation and better entry opportunities later [1][2] - The analyst suggests that if Bitcoin falls below a certain level without a quick rebound, it would be prudent to exit the position [2]

Cryptocurrency Exchange Platforms - Bybit is highlighted as a platform suitable for technical analysis [1] - Binance is mentioned as the largest global exchange, offering a 40% fee reduction [1] - OKX is noted as an established exchange with commission waivers [1] - Pionex is recommended for grid trading [1] Community and Resources - A Discord community is available for user support, with a dedicated helper [1] - The document promotes a Twitter account for updates [1] - Online courses are offered [1] - A Telegram channel provides announcements [1] Cryptocurrency Topics and Keywords - The document includes a range of cryptocurrency-related hashtags, such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, and others [1] - Technical analysis concepts like Dow Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Fibonacci, and Gann Theory are mentioned [1] - Terms related to trading strategies, such as "抄底 (dip buying)", "做多 (long)", "做空 (short)", and "套保 (hedging)" are included [1] - Mentions of "比特幣減半2024 (Bitcoin halving 2024)" suggest focus on future events [1]

Cryptocurrency Market Analysis - Bitcoin is consolidating within a range, with low trading volume, suggesting a potential downward move before a rally or a breakout after a period of accumulation [1] - Negative funding rates during consolidation indicate that a majority of retail traders are shorting Bitcoin, potentially leading to a short squeeze [1] - Ethereum (ETH) shows a potential AMD three-stage structure, targeting a higher price level, possibly reaching a 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level [1] - A larger harmonic pattern suggests a potential resistance area for ETH, but a break above could lead to further gains [1] Bybit Exchange and Market Expansion - Bybit now allows trading of US stocks, potentially opening new opportunities for users [1] - US stock token trading on Bybit is not fully available to mainland China users yet, but is expected to be in the future [1] Disclaimer - The analysis provided is not financial advice [1]

Market Analysis - Bitcoin is currently in a narrow consolidation phase with low trading volume, indicating a lack of clear directional movement [1] - The analyst suggests that a breakout to the upside would likely involve taking out previous highs with significant volume, which hasn't occurred yet [1] - The analyst notes the potential for Bitcoin to rise, driven by liquidity around previous highs where short positions' stop losses are concentrated [1] - Ethereum shows a positive trend with expectations of further upward movement, especially breaking through previous highs [1] Trading Strategy - The analyst advises against opening positions in Bitcoin within the current range due to low volatility [1] - For Bitcoin, a preferred strategy is to consider long positions after a dip below support levels followed by a recovery, or short positions after a bearish engulfing pattern at higher levels [1] - For Ethereum, the analyst suggests adding to long positions on dips and taking profits near previous highs, with a potential short opportunity if a bearish engulfing pattern appears alongside a false breakout in Bitcoin [1] Potential Risks - The analyst mentions the possibility of Bitcoin breaking below a parallel bottom before potentially breaking the triangle pattern upwards [1] - The analyst points out the potential for a false breakout in Bitcoin at previous highs, coinciding with a bearish engulfing pattern in Ethereum, which could signal a shorting opportunity [1]

Market Analysis - Bitcoin's weekly chart shows a positive trend with a longer lower shadow, indicating price testing and rebound, with relatively low trading volume suggesting consolidation rather than a major top formation [1] - The weekly MACD for Bitcoin hasn't shown a death cross, suggesting potential for further upward movement before a possible correction [1] - Bitcoin's daily chart shows indecisive movement around a triangle pattern, with the analyst favoring horizontal support levels and anticipating a potential liquidity grab above parallel highs [1] - The analyst notes Bitcoin's current low-volume consolidation, suggesting that moves may not be decisive, and anticipates a potential upward surge after a possible dip to break minor lows [1] - Ethereum shows potential, especially if Bitcoin surges, but its lack of significant volatility warrants less detailed analysis [1] Trading Strategy - The analyst is wary of shorting Bitcoin at the current level due to potential for upward movement and liquidity grabs [1] - The analyst is waiting for a clearer pattern before making trades, particularly looking for a surge to higher levels to hunt stop-loss orders [1] - The analyst advises against frequent trading with low probability setups, a practice encouraged by some exchanges, and emphasizes patient waiting for higher probability opportunities [1] - The analyst identifies a prior AMD (Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution) pattern in Bitcoin's hourly chart, leading to a current state of disordered consolidation [1] Exchange Recommendation - Bybit is recommended as the preferred exchange for technical analysis, with Binance also mentioned for its fee reduction [1][2]

Market Analysis - Bitcoin is facing resistance near its previous high, showing signs of a potential pullback [1] - A possible cup and handle formation is forming, which could lead to further upward movement if the liquidity above is taken out [1] - A bearish scenario involves a break below the rising trendline with increased volume, potentially indicating a false breakout and a shift in market structure [1] - The analyst is closely monitoring whether the price will break below a certain level, as a break could signal a change in market framework [1] - The analyst notes that a false breakout followed by a drop could present a shorting opportunity [1] Technical Indicators - The analyst observes that the current pullback seems to be filling a gap from a previous rapid price increase [1] - On the weekly chart, MACD shows potential divergence, indicating a possible weakening of momentum [1] - The analyst points out that on the hourly chart, a retest of a consolidation zone could signal further upside potential [1] Altcoin Analysis - Ethereum is currently filling a gap, and its performance is tied to Bitcoin's ability to hold support [1]

Market Analysis - Bitcoin shows bullish momentum on the daily chart, with a large positive candle yesterday and no signs of a pullback [1] - A minor upper shadow near the previous high indicates some selling pressure, but the trading volume is not particularly high, suggesting no panic buying climax yet [1] - The analysis points to a potential AMD (Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution) reversal pattern, with a possible run to take out stop-loss orders above a previous high [1] - The current daily level is approaching a previous secondary high, where some traders might sell, anticipating a failure to break higher [1] - A parallel high point suggests a high probability of an upward movement [1] - On the 4-hour chart, an AMD pattern is observed, but a reversal from the current position is deemed unlikely, with increasing positive candles and insufficient selling pressure [1] - The analysis suggests that the previous parallel high is likely to be taken out, with attention then shifting to a potential fake breakout at the ultimate high, which could present a shorting opportunity to hedge existing holdings [1] - The analyst advises against shorting Bitcoin at the current level, as no suitable conditions for shorting are present [1] - Ethereum's momentum is strong, with a pattern of consolidation, breakdown, recovery, and continued upward movement, making it likely to reach a higher level [1] Trading Strategy - Monitor for a potential fake breakout at the ultimate high, which could present a shorting opportunity to hedge existing holdings [1] - Do not short Bitcoin at the current level, as no suitable conditions for shorting are present [1]