Market Analysis - Bitcoin is currently near a previous low point on the daily chart, with potential for consolidation over the weekend and a possible fakeout drop before recovering [1] - A successful fakeout drop and recovery could signal a good short-term to mid-term buying opportunity, with a potential retest of previous highs [1] - Ethereum's price action is contingent on Bitcoin's movements; a Bitcoin rally could validate a breakout in Ethereum [1] Trading Strategy - The analysis suggests a trading plan to short Bitcoin in smaller timeframes near the previous low, anticipating liquidity grabs, and then consider longing after a confirmed recovery [1] - A clear trading plan involves waiting for Bitcoin to hunt stop-losses and recover before considering long positions in Ethereum, providing a double confirmation [1] - The analyst's preferred exchanges are Bybit for contract trading due to its suitability for technical analysis, and Binance for spot trading, offering a 40% fee reduction [1] Risk Management - Traders should exercise caution if Ethereum breaks out while Bitcoin is still consolidating, as Bitcoin has not yet hunted for stop-losses [1] - The analyst is hesitant to long Bitcoin immediately after a drop and recovery, preferring to short in smaller timeframes and then long after further confirmation [1]

Group 1 - BlueBay Asset Management has established a long position in the Japanese yen, betting on a leadership change in Japan and a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in October, which could strengthen the yen further [1] - The company shorted the US dollar when the USD/JPY exchange rate approached 150, believing that action from the Bank of Japan in October is likely [1] - Investors view the newly announced candidate for the Liberal Democratic Party leadership, Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, as more supportive of interest rate hikes compared to his potential rival, Sanae Takaichi, who is seen as favoring loose monetary policy [1] Group 2 - BlueBay expects the USD/JPY exchange rate to fluctuate towards 140 in the short term, with a fair value closer to 135 in the medium term; the yen has depreciated by 0.8% against the dollar over the past three months, making it the worst-performing currency among the G10 [1] - The company's views contrast with hedge funds, which have increased short positions in the yen for four consecutive weeks, while strategists from Bank of America and HSBC also predict further depreciation of the yen [4] - BlueBay has increased its yen positions in the past month, driven by indications from Bank of Japan officials that policy normalization is on track, barring political risks [4] Group 3 - The probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan by the end of the year is currently estimated at around 60%, according to overnight index swaps (OIS) pricing [4] - The political and fiscal uncertainties in Japan have pushed up long-term government bond yields, with the 30-year bond yield recently reaching a historical high of 3.285% [4] - If Koizumi wins the LDP leadership election and the Bank of Japan implements a rate hike, BlueBay may consider shifting to a long position in long-term Japanese government bonds [5]

Market Analysis & Trading Signals - Bitcoin experienced a dip below previous lows before rebounding, presenting a buying opportunity based on a "break below and reclaim" strategy [1] - Ethereum showed a similar pattern, breaking below a descending trendline and then rapidly rising, indicating a potential bullish signal [2] - The analyst suggests two trading plans for Ethereum: If it breaks through the resistance level and doesn't fall back, continue to be bullish; if it breaks through and quickly falls back, consider a bearish position [2] - The analyst emphasizes the importance of observing price action and volume, particularly at the $120,000 level for Bitcoin, to identify potential distribution patterns [1] Risk Management & Potential Scenarios - The analyst is still cautious about a potential Wyckoff distribution scenario, suggesting awareness of top risks if clear distribution patterns emerge [1] - A potential MACD divergence on the weekly chart for Bitcoin is noted, indicating a possible weakening of the upward trend [1] - The analyst advises against chasing the price after a $5,000 surge and warns of the proximity to the 0618% Fibonacci retracement level [1] - The analyst suggests taking partial profits around the $120,000 level for Bitcoin and considering short positions if bearish divergence appears [1] General Trading Philosophy - The analyst stresses the importance of patience and avoiding panic during market dips, viewing them as potential buying opportunities [1] - The analyst advises against blindly following news and instead focusing on understanding market mechanics and liquidity grabs [1] - The analyst emphasizes adapting to market trends rather than rigidly sticking to personal predictions, advocating for an open mind and flexible strategy [2]

Report Overview - Report Name: Goldtrust Futures Daily Report - Date: July 18, 2025 - Author: Goldtrust Futures Research Institute Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The glass market is experiencing a fierce short - term tug - of war between bulls and bears. If the price stabilizes at a key support level, one can consider going long; otherwise, it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - The stock index futures market is expected to have a high - level volatile upward trend [7]. - The long - term outlook for gold remains positive. Currently, after adjusting to an important support level, one can buy on dips [11]. - The iron ore market maintains a bullish technical trend, and the positive feedback in the industrial chain continues [15]. - The glass market continues to follow a bullish technical trend, although the fundamentals have not changed significantly [19]. - For methanol, due to the continuous accumulation of port inventory, a short - position strategy with a small position is recommended [23]. Summary by Category Glass - Fundamentals: Real estate demand is weak, and although there is support from photovoltaic demand, it cannot fully offset the drag from the real estate sector. Glass social inventory has increased year - on - year, resulting in significant supply pressure. However, the cold - repair of production lines such as those of Jinjing Technology has reduced the daily melting volume, providing marginal support to supply and potentially limiting price declines [3]. - Industry News: On July 16, a kiln production line in Anhui with a designed capacity of 750 tons per day entered cold - repair, and the cold - repair speed of the top 10 photovoltaic glass production lines has accelerated. The supply has further decreased, and the downstream purchasing sentiment has improved, which is beneficial for the subsequent glass prices [3]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term correction of the glass futures main contract does not change the medium - term upward trend. If it stabilizes around 1050 yuan, one can try to go long with a small position. The bearish forces in the glass market are concentrated, but the net short positions of the top 20 seats in the main contract are showing a decreasing trend, indicating intensified market divergence [3]. Stock Index Futures - Market Trend: The A - share market opened lower and closed higher, with the ChiNext performing the strongest. The market is expected to have a high - level volatile upward trend [7][8]. Gold - Market News: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates in the meeting has reduced the expectation of an interest - rate cut within the year, leading to an adjustment in the gold price. However, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [12]. - Technical Analysis: After adjusting to an important support level, one can buy on dips [11]. Iron Ore - Macro Environment: The macro environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the high pig iron output due to decent steel mill profits has maintained a positive feedback in the industrial chain [16]. - Technical Analysis: The price continued to rise today, and the bullish view persists [15]. Methanol - Inventory Data: As of July 9, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 71.89 million tons, an increase of 4.52 million tons compared to the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 6.10 million tons, while that in South China decreased by 1.58 million tons. The port inventory has continued to accumulate this week, and a short - position strategy with a small position is recommended [23].

Group 1 - The market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by recent news of potential interest rate cuts and favorable policies for foreign investors [1][2] - The U.S. stock market showed positive performance, while European markets experienced limited declines, indicating a generally warm external environment [1] - The A-share market has begun to recover from previous declines, with strong performance in traditional sectors like banking, insurance, and brokerage [2] Group 2 - The market is maintaining a short-term strong upward trend, with a focus on sectors such as military, technology, and finance [2] - Investors are encouraged to maintain a bullish stance, particularly on low-priced stocks, while being cautious of taking profits on significantly appreciated holdings [2] - The market sentiment remains positive as long as the index does not fall below 3403 points, suggesting a continued focus on buying opportunities [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests waiting for a pullback in the stock index futures market before taking long positions. Although the sudden Middle - East conflict has shaken the global market, the impact on the stock index is mainly on short - term risk appetite, and there is little substantial influence. After the risk is digested and market sentiment calms down, the market will return to being driven by fundamentals and rebound [2]. 3. Section - by - Section Summary Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the market rose and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3400 points several times but declined due to the Israel - Iran conflict. Sectors such as non - ferrous metals and petroleum and petrochemicals led the gains, affected by commodity price fluctuations caused by the geopolitical conflict. Despite positive news on Sino - US trade, the stock index was supported by risk preference but did not break through, and local theme trading emerged based on new short - term variables [1]. - The Middle - East conflict has caused a sharp rise and then a fall in crude oil prices (a 10% increase followed by a decline), a significant increase in safe - haven assets like gold, and a collective decline in global stock markets. However, historical experience shows that military conflicts rarely lead to major inflection points in the macro - economy and asset prices, and there are still opportunities to go long after the stock index pulls back [2]. - Attention should be paid to the release of domestic economic data on Monday and the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting [3]. Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4]. - **Trend Strategy**: Wait patiently for a pullback to go long. The core operating ranges for the IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 contracts are expected to be between 3741 - 3934 points, 2599 - 2719 points, 5557 - 5930 points, and 5871 - 6267 points respectively [4]. - **Cross - variety Strategy**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [5]. Spot Market Review - **Global Stock Indexes**: Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.32%, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.39%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.63%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 Index rose 0.14%, the German DAX Index fell 3.24%, and the French CAC40 Index fell 1.54%. In the Asia - Pacific region, the Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.25% and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.42% [9]. - **Domestic Indexes**: Most of the major domestic indexes declined last week. Since 2025, the performance of various indexes has also been mixed [9][13]. - **Industry Performance**: The industries in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indexes showed mixed performance last week [15]. Index Futures Market Review - Among the futures contracts last week, the IC2506 contract had the largest increase, and the IM2506 contract had the largest amplitude. Both the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased [17][20]. - The basis (futures - spot) of the main futures contracts and the cross - variety ratios of futures contracts are also presented in the report [21]. Index Valuation Tracking - The price - to - earnings ratios (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are 14.64 times, 12.56 times, 10.91 times, 29.24 times, and 40.16 times respectively [22][23]. Market Fundamentals Review - The number of new investors in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are presented in the report. Last week, the capital interest rate declined, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal [25].

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a minor fluctuation, referred to as a "black swan," but the overall trend remains upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a slight decline of only 0.75% [1][3] - The current market situation is characterized by a clear upward trend, and the majority of investors are misjudging the market direction, which hinders their ability to profit [1][3] - The impact of geopolitical issues in the Middle East is deemed limited and is not expected to disrupt the market's upward trajectory [3][5] Group 2 - A recovery in the Shanghai Composite Index is anticipated within three days, with a potential return to 3400 points, indicating that the recent decline lacks substantial logic [5][7] - The market is expected to see significant upward movement once key sectors such as liquor and real estate begin to rebound, which could lead to accelerated gains [3][5] - Investors are advised to hold onto their positions during downturns and realize profits during upswings, emphasizing the importance of maintaining composure in the market [7]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent decline in gold prices to 3313, questioning whether there is still potential for bullish positions in the market [1] - It highlights the impact of a rebound in the US dollar on gold prices and seeks to identify resistance levels for gold [1] Market Analysis - The article notes a decrease in risk aversion among investors, contributing to the drop in gold prices [1] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the US dollar's performance as it plays a crucial role in gold price movements [1]