朋友們，2026年3月25日華爾街午盤時間 我們來更新比特幣的行情 那這個是比特幣的日線圖 從日線級別來看 我們發現前面的一天是一根陰線 但是下影線還是比較的長 它一度是跌下來 測試了 前面的這樣的一個陰線的實體部分 然後就出現了反彈 反彈今天是一根陽線對不對 然後你可以看到它一度是上來了 但是現在好像又下來了 它為什麼會來到這個地方呢 是不是來到我們的目標位了 之後就要反轉呢 那這個是我們今天要討論的話題 那我們可以看到 在這邊畫了兩個AR 那AR到底是什麼意思呢 實際上 這個不是什麼黑話 那這個AR呢 你可以看到就是這種盤整的時候 下跌然後反彈 這樣的一個小高點 那麼這個叫自然反彈的高點 然後來到這邊 你可以看到急漲急漲之後盤整盤整 盤整盤整 然後 往下面跌 這邊 是一個自然回落的一個小低點 然後前面有真空的空缺 前面有真空的空缺 AR呢實際上是威科夫裡面的話術 叫自然反彈 或者說自然回落 的標志性的位置 所以這兩天行情就在這邊 反複的去盤整 那麼昨天的行情更新中 是提醒大家比特幣 如果說它往下面跌 是補充這個缺口 那麼一旦站回去 我就覺得是做多的機會 那麼昨天 我在社群裡面也是這樣子發的 你可以看到盤整 ...

朋友們，2026年3月23日 華爾街午盤時間 我們來更新比特幣的行情 那這個是比特幣的周線圖 從周線級別來看 我們發現比特幣呢 上周 你可以看到是一根非常大的陰線 那麼你可以看到 之前在這個盤整的過程中 k線是比較有迷惑性的 先是在這邊下跌 下跌之後 小小的盤整 盤整之後 做出了一個那麼長的上影線 的一個墓碑線 但是接下來它卻反轉了 因為墓碑線之後 經常是繼續往下跌 但是並沒有 而是一根非常大的陽線 按道理來說 出現那麼大的一根陽線 通常是代表著強勢 有可能會繼續往上漲 那麼這個是兩個陷阱 一個陷阱 是認為出了這樣的一根k線之後 會往下跌 第二個陷阱 就認為出了這樣一個大陽線之後 會往上漲 它都沒有 它都反轉了 你看到這一周 就是這樣的一根大陰線 那為什麼會這樣走呢 實際上 因為它仍然是在一個盤整區間內 這個盤整區間 因為你可以看到之前這邊 好像是一個上升的楔形 或者說隨便你怎麼畫 反正就是有那麼一點往上走 但最後又往下跌的感覺 那麼這邊 好像也是一樣 盤整盤整 盤整有一點往上走 但是我仍然是認為 它現在處在一個什麼樣的位置呢 那就是4浪 什麼4浪 下跌的1浪 2浪3浪 4浪 然後我覺得還可能會有5浪的 好吧 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap from Iran. Considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the main operation idea is to make a medium - term layout, but wait for the end of the geopolitical situation to eliminate tail risks [4]. - For methanol, the downward momentum remains, but the negative factors have weakened marginally, so the downward space is limited. The main idea is to go long on dips in the medium - term [7]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected production increase at the end of January, the fundamental negative expectations are coming, so it is recommended to short [9]. - For rubber, it is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is recommended to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609. If RU is below 17000, it needs to be treated with caution [14][15]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is strong supply and weak demand, and the fundamentals are poor. The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral level, but the supply reduction is small, the output is at a historical high, the domestic demand has not fully recovered from the off - season, and the export is the only short - term support [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, the valuation upward repair space is shrinking. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, the port inventory of styrene is continuously accumulating, and the demand is in the off - season. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been greatly repaired, and it can be gradually taken profit [21]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has decreased. The "moderate production increase" of OPEC+ has led to an oscillating crude oil price. The spot price of polyethylene has decreased, and the PE valuation still has downward space. The coal - based inventory has been greatly reduced, which supports the price. After the Spring Festival, the demand for agricultural film raw materials begins to decrease, and the overall operating rate may rebound [24]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has decreased. The EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventory, and the supply surplus may ease. There is no production capacity release plan in the first half of 2026, and the demand - side downstream operating rate rebounds seasonally. The overall inventory pressure may ease, and it is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [27]. - For PX, the current load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans with a low overall load. In the short term, PX is in a inventory - accumulating pattern. In March, as PX enters the maintenance season and PTA devices restart unexpectedly, PX will gradually enter the inventory - reducing cycle. The medium - term pattern is good, and it is recommended to go long on dips following the crude oil [29]. - For PTA, it is difficult to turn into an inventory - reducing cycle as the maintenance expectation decreases. The PTA processing fee has declined, and the short - term callback is expected to be in place. The PXN has回调 to a neutral level, and there is still room for valuation increase. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX and grasp the rhythm [34]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, the import is expected to decrease in March, but the port inventory accumulation pressure is still large due to the ongoing recovery of downstream demand. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the medium - term. The valuation is currently neutral to low, and there is a risk of rebound due to the tense situation in Iran and the rebound of coal prices [36]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main contract of INE crude oil futures closed up 2.20 yuan/barrel, an increase of 0.45%, at 488.40 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products: high - sulfur fuel oil closed down 29.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.97%, at 2960.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 35.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.01%, at 3500.00 yuan/ton. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 0.12 million barrels to 11.02 million barrels, a 1.07% increase; diesel inventory increased by 0.66 million barrels to 16.64 million barrels, a 4.15% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.54 million barrels to 5.46 million barrels, a 21.96% decrease; naphtha inventory decreased by 0.29 million barrels to 5.55 million barrels, a 4.93% decrease; aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.95 million barrels to 6.59 million barrels, a 12.55% decrease; the overall refined oil inventory decreased by 1.99 million barrels to 45.27 million barrels, a 4.21% decrease [2][3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current oil price has priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is an Iranian supply gap. Considering Venezuela's expected over - performance in production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the main operation idea is medium - term layout, but wait for the end of the geopolitical situation to eliminate tail risks [4]. Methanol - **Market Information**: In terms of regional spot prices, Jiangsu decreased by 35 yuan/ton, Lunan remained unchanged, Henan decreased by 20 yuan/ton, Hebei remained unchanged, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The main contract of futures decreased by 53.00 yuan/ton, at 2179 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit increased by 29 yuan [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downward momentum of methanol remains, but the negative factors have weakened marginally, so the downward space is limited. The main idea is to go long on dips in the medium - term [7]. Urea - **Market Information**: In terms of regional spot prices, Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast remained unchanged, Hubei increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 37 yuan/ton. The main contract of futures increased by 11 yuan/ton, at 1847 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected production increase at the end of January, the fundamental negative expectations are coming, so it is recommended to short [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Due to the conflict between the US and Iran, the prices of crude oil and naphtha are expected to rise, and the butadiene rubber futures are expected to be driven upwards. Rubber RU and NR are expected to oscillate strongly. The bulls think that the rubber production in Southeast Asia may be limited, the rubber usually rises in the second half of the year, and the demand in China is expected to improve. The bears think that the macro - economic outlook is uncertain, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. As of February 26, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 32.30%, 18.78 percentage points higher than last week and 36.25 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 38.35%, 22.04 percentage points higher than last week and 43.79 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of February 23, 2026, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 136.6 tons, a 7 - ton increase and a 5.4% increase from the previous period. As of February 24, 2026, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 6.28 tons to 67.21 tons compared with before the Spring Festival. In terms of spot prices, Thai standard mixed rubber was 15900 (- 100) yuan, STR20 was reported at 2050 (- 10) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 2050 (- 10) US dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 10000 (+ 50) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene rubber was 12200 (0) yuan [11][12][13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is recommended to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609. If RU is below 17000, it needs to be treated with caution [14][15]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract decreased by 63 yuan, at 4792 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4610 (- 70) yuan/ton, the basis was - 182 (- 7) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 138 (- 1) yuan/ton. In terms of cost, the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2250 (- 50) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 735 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 705 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 634 (+ 3) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 82.1%, unchanged from the previous period; among them, the calcium carbide method was 81.7%, a 0.3% decrease from the previous period; the ethylene method was 83.2%, a 0.7% increase from the previous period. The overall downstream operating rate was 17.1%, a 17.1% increase from the previous period. The in - plant inventory was 50.4 tons (- 0.1), and the social inventory was 135.3 tons (+ 1) [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply - demand situation is strong supply and weak demand, and the fundamentals are poor. The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral level, but the supply reduction is small, the output is at a historical high, the domestic demand has not fully recovered from the off - season, and the export is the only short - term support [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost - side price of East China pure benzene was 6080 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan decrease; the closing price of the active contract of pure benzene was 6125 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan decrease; the pure benzene basis was - 45 yuan/ton, a 66 - yuan decrease. In the spot - futures market, the spot price of styrene was 7700 yuan/ton, a 75 - yuan decrease; the closing price of the active contract of styrene was 7524 yuan/ton, a 46 - yuan decrease; the basis was 176 yuan/ton, a 29 - yuan weakening; the BZN spread was 151.5 yuan/ton, a 15.5 - yuan decrease; the profit of non - integrated EB devices was - 83.7 yuan/ton, a 2.65 - yuan increase; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 74.24%, a 3.16% increase; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 15.81 tons, a 6.19 - ton increase. The weighted operating rate of three S was 30.35%, a 7.47% decrease; the PS operating rate was 49.40%, a 0.30% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 12.18%, a 35.84% decrease, and the ABS operating rate was 70.00%, a 1.10% increase [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, the valuation upward repair space is shrinking. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, the port inventory of styrene is continuously accumulating, and the demand is in the off - season. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been greatly repaired, and it can be gradually taken profit [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6597 yuan/ton, a 140 - yuan decrease; the spot price was 6415 yuan/ton, a 120 - yuan decrease; the basis was - 113 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a 0.27% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 37.97 tons, a 5.67 - ton increase; the inventory of traders was 2.32 tons, a 0.23 - ton decrease. The average downstream operating rate was 33.73%, a 4.03% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 75 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan decrease [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has decreased. The "moderate production increase" of OPEC+ has led to an oscillating crude oil price. The spot price of polyethylene has decreased, and the PE valuation still has downward space. The coal - based inventory has been greatly reduced, which supports the price. After the Spring Festival, the demand for agricultural film raw materials begins to decrease, and the overall operating rate may rebound [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6611 yuan/ton, a 119 - yuan decrease; the spot price was 6605 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan decrease; the basis was 64 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a 0.01% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 41.58 tons, a 1.49 - ton increase; the inventory of traders was 18.32 tons, a 0.02 - ton decrease; the port inventory was 6.37 tons, a 0.03 - ton decrease. The average downstream operating rate was 49.84%, a 2.24% decrease. The LL - PP spread was - 14 yuan/ton, a 21 - yuan decrease; the PP5 - 9 spread was - 16 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan increase [25][26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has decreased. The EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventory, and the supply surplus may ease. There is no production capacity release plan in the first half of 2026, and the demand - side downstream operating rate rebounds seasonally. The overall inventory pressure may ease, and it is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [27]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract increased by 12 yuan, at 7394 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 1 US dollar, at 932 US dollars. The basis was 43 yuan (- 4), and the 5 - 7 spread was - 30 yuan (- 18). The Chinese PX load was 92.4%, a 0.4% increase; the Asian load was 84.9%, a 1.2% increase. In terms of devices, there were few domestic changes. The maintenance plan of Jinling Petrochemical was postponed, and Zhejiang Petrochemical planned to shut down one line in March. Overseas, a Kuwaiti device restarted. The PTA load was 76.6%, a 1.8% increase. In terms of devices, one unit of Yisheng New Materials was operating at 50% capacity, and one unit restarted. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 33.9 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days of February, a 12.4 - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of December was 465 tons, a 19 - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 299 US dollars (- 14), the South Korean PX - MX was 164 US dollars (+ 6), and the naphtha crack spread was 114 US dollars (+ 17) [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current PX load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans with a low overall load. In the short term, PX is in a inventory - accumulating pattern. In March, as PX enters the maintenance season and PTA devices restart unexpectedly, PX will gradually enter the inventory - reducing cycle. The medium - term pattern is good, and it is recommended to go long on dips following the crude oil [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract decreased by 10 yuan, at 5250 yuan. The

Core Insights - The article aims to demystify common investment jargon and concepts for new investors, enhancing their understanding and experience in finance [1] Group 1: Investment Concepts - "仓位" (position) refers to the total amount of funds allocated for buying stocks or funds, typically divided into ten parts, with a 10% position indicating 10% of available funds used for investment [1] - "空仓" (empty position) means having no investments, with all funds in cash, indicating a wait-and-see approach [2] - "轻仓" (light position) indicates investing less than 30% of available funds, while "半仓" (half position) means investing around 50%, balancing risk and opportunity [3] - "重仓" (heavy position) refers to investing over 70% of available funds, and "全仓" (full position) means investing all available funds [3] - Dynamic adjustment of positions is essential, with terms like "加仓" (adding position) for increasing investments and "减仓" (reducing position) for selling part of the holdings [4] Group 2: Trading Strategies - "止盈" (take profit) involves selling part of the investment after making a profit, while "止损" (stop loss) means selling to prevent further losses when reaching a predetermined loss threshold [4] - "梭哈" (all-in) refers to investing all funds at once, while "做多" (going long) indicates a bullish outlook, often involving leverage [5] - "做空" (short selling) is the opposite, betting on a decline in stock prices [5] Group 3: Market Behavior - Terms like "追涨" (chasing gains) and "杀跌" (panic selling) describe common emotional reactions to market movements, often leading to poor investment decisions [5] - "踏空" (missing out) refers to the frustration of not investing during a market rise, while "卖飞" (selling too early) describes selling an investment before it significantly appreciates [5] Group 4: Investment Duration and Strategies - Short-term holding is defined as holding investments for less than a year, while long-term holding refers to maintaining investments for over a year, which is generally more suitable for new investors [6] - "定投" (regular investment) involves investing a fixed amount regularly to mitigate price volatility, though it is not considered the best investment strategy [6] - The article emphasizes that understanding these basic terms and concepts is crucial for building a foundational investment logic before delving into more complex knowledge [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy is to cautiously go long on glass [2][72]. Core Viewpoints - Despite the existence of negative factors such as inventory, demand, and holidays, the futures price is at a relatively low level. There is still time for changes before the expiration of the main contract. With multiple positive news in the macro - real estate sector and the weakening of short - side strength, it is advisable to focus on the glass price range of 1030 - 1050 and cautiously go long. Also, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash due to the expected cost reduction from natural soda [2][72]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 01. Market Review: Spot Price Increase and Basis Turning Positive - **Spot Price**: As of January 30, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,020 yuan/ton (+10) in North China, 1,110 yuan/ton (+50) in Central China, and 1,180 yuan/ton (-10) in East China. The 05 contract of glass closed at 1,056 yuan/ton last week, with a weekly decline of 8 [13][14]. - **Basis**: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 05 contract was 64 yuan/ton (+68). The 05 - 09 spread was - 111 yuan/ton (-5). The spread between soda ash and glass was 148 yuan/ton (+14) as of January 30 [15][19]. 02. Supply - Demand Pattern: High Inventory and Overall Loss - **Profit**: The overall glass production is in a loss state. The cost of natural gas production process is 1,568 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a gross profit of - 388 yuan/ton (-10); the cost of coal - gas production process is 1,169 yuan/ton (+4), with a gross profit of - 149 yuan/ton (+6); the cost of petroleum coke production process is 1,109 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a gross profit of 1 yuan/ton (+50) [23]. - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of glass last Friday was 150,135 tons/day (+600), with 213 production lines in operation. One production line was restarted last week [25]. - **Inventory**: As of January 30, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 5,256.4 million weight boxes (-65.2). Inventories in North China, Central China, East China, Southwest, and some factory warehouses decreased, while that in South China increased slightly [29]. - **Deep - processing**: On January 29, the comprehensive sales - to - production ratio of float glass was 99% (-6%). On January 30, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 41.2% (-2.4%). In mid - January, the order days of glass deep - processing were 9.3 days (+0.7) [31]. - **Demand**: - **Automobile**: In December, China's automobile production was 3.296 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 236,000 units and a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 units; sales were 3.272 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 157,000 units and a year - on - year decrease of 217,000 units. The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles were 1.337 million units, with a penetration rate of 59.1% [35]. - **Real Estate**: In December, China's real estate completion area was 208.94 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18%; new construction area was 53.13 million square meters (-19%); construction area was 38.24 million square meters (-47%); commercial housing sales area was 94 million square meters (-17%). From January 19 to January 25, the total trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.43 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 28%. In December, real estate development investment was 419.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 37% [45]. - **Import and Export**: In December, China's float glass imports were 292,400 weight boxes (a year - on - year decrease of 67%), and exports were 1.7394 million weight boxes (a year - on - year increase of 39%) [47]. - **Cost - Soda Ash**: - **Price**: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,260 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,235 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China, 1,240 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1,425 yuan/ton (unchanged) in South China. The 2605 contract of soda ash closed at 1,204 yuan/ton (+6) last Friday, and the basis of the soda ash Huazhong 05 contract was 36 yuan/ton (-6) [50][51]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of the ammonia - alkali method for soda ash enterprises was 1,307 yuan/ton (+8), with a gross profit of - 88 yuan/ton (+8); the cost of the co - production method was 1,755 yuan/ton (+57), with a gross profit of - 27 yuan/ton (+14) [55][57]. - **Production and Inventory**: Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 783,100 tons (a month - on - month increase of 11,400 tons), including 421,100 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 8,200 tons) and 362,000 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons). The loss volume was 145,900 tons (a month - on - month increase of 24,700 tons). The exchange soda ash warehouse receipts at the end of last week were 1,779 pieces (a month - on - month increase of 1,779 pieces). As of January 30, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.5442 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 23,000 tons), including 716,100 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 19,400 tons) and 828,100 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 3,600 tons) [64]. - **Apparent Consumption**: Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda ash was 401,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 52,500 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda ash was 358,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,900 tons. The sales - to - production ratio of soda ash last week was 97.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 9.92%. In December, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 27.2 days [69]. 03. Investment Strategy: Try to Go Long at Low Prices - **Investment Strategy**: Cautiously go long. The main logic is that although there are negative factors such as inventory, demand, and holidays, the futures price is at a relatively low level. There is still time for changes before the expiration of the main contract. With positive news in the macro - real estate sector and the weakening of short - side strength, focus on the glass price range of 1030 - 1050 and cautiously go long. Also, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash [2][72].

朋友們，2026年1月23日華爾街 午盤時間 我們來更新比特幣的行情 這個是比特幣的日線圖 從日線級別來看 我們發現比特幣好像這兩天盤整了之後 略微往上面抬了一下 那麼這是不是意味著說 它總算是把前面的低點 跌破收回了呢 實際上從小級別來講 這邊也確實踩住了一個缺口 我個人是認為我們可以看到盤整區間 其實市場框架完成了轉變 也就是說創出了一個更低的低點 那麼比原先這一帶要低對不對 那麼反彈的話我個人可能會認為 它有可能做出一個更高的低點（更低的高點） 那麼這一帶這附近 我會覺得它有比較大的阻礙作用好吧 這是日線級別來說的 我們之前也是判斷它可能有一個反彈 因為這種連續的下跌 三天這種恐慌拋售 通常代表著說 一個小階段內的極端情緒 這個情緒會往回收一收的好吧 我們看到更小的級別比如說4小時 如果說從4小時級別來看 我們把前面這樣一個低點給它畫出來 那麼好像看到沒有跌破跌破嘗試站上去 並沒有成功 然後後來站上去測試測試 一直都沒有跌下來 好像這一帶確實有一種收回去的感覺 而且你可以看到這邊也創出了高點 對不對 一小時級別來看這個缺口就更加的明顯了 那麼你可以看到前面的低點在這邊 而且我們昨天收回去的時候 我在這邊 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, it is recommended to take profit on the heavy oil crack spread and go long on crude oil at low levels within the shale oil break - even cost range [1]. - For methanol, considering the low current valuation and the marginal improvement in the pattern next year, there is limited downside space. Due to the geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of going long at low levels [2]. - For urea, with the import window opened by the current internal - external price difference and the expected increase in production at the end of January, it is advisable to take profit at high levels [5]. - For rubber, with its weak seasonality, it is expected to continue to decline after consolidation. Adopt a short - selling strategy when RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [10]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak. In the short term, there is an expectation of short - term export rush due to the cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1. In the medium term, maintain a short - selling strategy [13]. - For pure benzene and styrene, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [16]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the overall inventory may decline from a high level, which supports the price [18]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [21]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand with downstream PTA are strong. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels following crude oil [24]. - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - building stage. After the Spring Festival, there is still room for valuation increase. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the current overall load is still high, and the inventory - building cycle at ports will continue. In the medium term, there is an expectation of further compressing profits and reducing production [30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed up 2.30 yuan/barrel, or 0.52%, at 440.80 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 20.00 yuan/ton, or 0.79%, to 2542.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 12.00 yuan/ton, or 0.39%, to 3090.00 yuan/ton. In the weekly data of Fujeirah port, gasoline inventory increased by 0.09 million barrels to 7.07 million barrels, diesel inventory decreased by 0.23 million barrels to 2.50 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.69 million barrels to 8.77 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.82 million barrels to 18.33 million barrels [1]. - **Strategy View**: Take profit on the heavy oil crack spread and go long on crude oil at low levels within the shale oil break - even cost range [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu decreased by 9 yuan/ton, in Lunan increased by 5 yuan/ton, in Henan increased by 5 yuan/ton, in Hebei decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia decreased by 12.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 10.00 yuan/ton to 2209 yuan/ton, and MTO profit increased by 12 yuan [1]. - **Strategy View**: Considering the low current valuation and the marginal improvement in the pattern next year, there is limited downside space. Due to the geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of going long at low levels [2]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Northeast remained unchanged, while in Shanxi it decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 29 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 4 yuan/ton to 1779 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy View**: With the import window opened by the current internal - external price difference and the expected increase in production at the end of January, it is advisable to take profit at high levels [5]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded in a volatile manner. Bulls are optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand expectations, while bears are pessimistic due to weak demand. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.84%, up 2.30 percentage points from last week and 2.78 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.35%, up 6.35 percentage points from last week but down 4.09 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 11, 2026, the total social inventory of natural rubber in China was 125.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4 tons [7][8]. - **Strategy View**: With its weak seasonality, it is expected to continue to decline after consolidation. Adopt a short - selling strategy when RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 64 yuan to 4743 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4500 (- 60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 243 (+ 4) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 118 (0) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.6%, flat month - on - month. Factory inventory was 31.1 tons (- 1.7), and social inventory was 114.4 tons (+ 3) [12]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak. In the short term, there is an expectation of short - term export rush due to the cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1. In the medium term, maintain a short - selling strategy [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5675 yuan/ton, and the active contract closed at 5805 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The spot price of styrene fell 50 yuan/ton to 7350 yuan/ton, and the active contract closed at 7203 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.86%, down 0.06%. Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 3.17 tons [15]. - **Strategy View**: It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [16]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6666 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6640 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, up 1.23% month - on - month. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons, and trader inventory remained unchanged [17]. - **Strategy View**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the overall inventory may decline from a high level, which supports the price [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6485 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6575 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, down 0.01% month - on - month. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.67 tons, trader inventory decreased by 1.08 tons, and port inventory decreased by 0.05 tons [19]. - **Strategy View**: In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [21]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 26 yuan to 7206 yuan. The PX CFR remained unchanged at 888 US dollars. The Chinese PX load was 89.4%, down 1.5% month - on - month, and the Asian load was 80.6%, down 0.6% month - on - month. From mid - to early January, South Korea's PX exports to China were 21.5 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8 tons [23]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to maintain an inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand with downstream PTA are strong. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels following crude oil [24]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 10 yuan to 5154 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 70 yuan to 5085 yuan. The PTA load was 76.9%, down 1.3% month - on - month. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 16 was 204.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4 tons [26]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - building stage. After the Spring Festival, there is still room for valuation increase. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 15 yuan to 3689 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 31 yuan to 3570 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 74.4%, up 0.3% month - on - month. Port inventory decreased by 0.7 tons [29]. - **Strategy View**: The current overall load is still high, and the inventory - building cycle at ports will continue. In the medium term, there is an expectation of further compressing profits and reducing production [30].

朋友們大家好，大家早上中午晚上好 這裡是提阿非羅 現在是美國西部時間 2026年的1月7日 同時也是東八區時間 2026年的1月8日 我們現在來看一眼比特幣的行情 這個是比特幣的日線圖 從日線級別來看 我們昨天的時候說 比特幣是來到了前高附近冒出來之後 做了一個小小的假突破 昨天剛來到這邊做假突破的時候 我提醒大家最好是留意一下 一小時級別 會不會出現市場框架的轉變 如果說有的話 那麼它有可能就會在這邊反抽測試一下 然後再往下面走來測試前面的這一帶 目前來說它確實是來到了這一帶測試 它的支撐看能否能夠撐住 如果說能夠撐住的話 我們可以看這是一個什麼樣的形態 小杯柄對吧 然後往上面突破 有這樣的可能性 但如果說這邊不能夠撐住的話 可能會跌到下面來 然後這邊你可以看到假突破發生了 對不對 然後會繼續往下走 這個是比特幣目前日線級別給我們看到的 而且來到這邊的時候 好像陰線的成交量又上來了 原先在這邊盤整的時候陰線成交量 其實並不是特別的多 現在好像有一點要上來的感覺 那麼目前來看 它確實來測試 這一帶到底能否撐住呢 這個就是我們今天要討論的話題對不對 好吧我們切換到一小時級別 這個是比特幣一小時級別 我們看看它是 ...

Group 1 - The main contract for paraxylene (PX) futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 7248.0 yuan, with a current price of 7180.0 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.87% [1] Group 2 - Wenkang Futures suggests focusing on buying opportunities on dips, noting that PX load remains high while downstream PTA maintenance is frequent, leading to a lower overall load center and expectations of slight inventory accumulation in December [2] - Xinhuh Futures indicates that the PX market will continue to run strong in the short term, with a tight supply-demand balance expected to persist until new capacity comes online in Q3 next year [3] - Donghai Futures anticipates that PX will maintain a strong oscillating pattern in the short term, with only one new production line expected next year, contributing to a tight market outlook and supporting price increases [3]

Core Insights - The "Alpha Arena" experiment by the financial AI lab nof1 involves six AI models trading with a starting capital of $10,000 each in a real market setting, showcasing their performance in stock and cryptocurrency trading [2] - As of October 21, 2023, DeepSeek leads with a balance of over $12,000, followed by Claude at $11,800, and Grok4 at approximately $11,500, while GPT5 has decreased to $6,600 [2] - DeepSeek's significant growth is attributed to a 36% increase over the weekend, likely due to accurate predictions regarding international market conditions [4] Performance Analysis - The founder of DeepSeek believes that both DeepSeek and Grok have a better understanding of the market's microstructure compared to other models [6] - DeepSeek's recent gains are primarily from shorting Bitcoin, while Grok4 focused on maximizing long positions, leading to losses for Qwen, which only took long positions during Bitcoin's decline [8] - In a previous test on October 11, Grok4 had a strong lead with an initial amount of $200 before transitioning to the current competition with $10,000 [8] Future Outlook - The first phase of the experiment is set to conclude on November 3, 2023, at which point the results will be evaluated [11]