Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a downward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 3.9% by June 28, 2024[3] - The major indices showed a general decline, with the ChiNext Index falling by 6.7% and the CSI 1000 down by 8.6%[18] - The TMT sector outperformed, with the electronics sector gaining 3.2%, communications up 2.9%, and utilities rising 0.7%[20] Economic Indicators - Domestic demand remains weak, with insufficient internal consumption being the primary concern[3] - The manufacturing PMI fell below the growth line, indicating challenges in procurement and seasonal factors[6] - In May, the industrial added value grew by 5.6% year-on-year, while retail sales increased by 3.7%[41] Policy and Future Outlook - The upcoming Third Plenary Session is expected to enhance market expectations and improve risk appetite[3] - The government is focusing on supporting high-quality development in venture capital and enhancing ESG governance among state-owned enterprises[15] - Key upcoming events include the release of China's June PMI and CPI on July 1, 2024, and the U.S. non-farm payroll data on July 5, 2024[31]

投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -17% -9% 0% 8% 16% 24% 证券Ⅱ 沪深300 分析师 许盈盈 SAC 证书编号:S0160522060002 xuyy02@ctsec.com 分析师 汪成鹏 SAC 证书编号:S0160523090003 wangcp@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《《关于加强上市证券公司监管的规 定》点评》 2024-05-12 2. 《证券行业 2023 年年报综述》 2024-04-19 3. 《顶层设计再迎优化,行业格局有望 重塑》 2023-12-26 核心观点 业绩仍有承压,关注并购重组主线机会 ❖ 收费类业务中预计经纪投行仍有承压,大资管业务预计保持一定韧性。 1)经纪业务:2024H1(截至 6 月 26 日,全文同)市场日均股票成交额 8,661 亿元,同比-8.1%,预计个人与机构投资者成交热度均有下滑,代买和席位收 入预计同比下滑;2024H1 市场新成立股票型+混合型基金份额同比-35.8%,当 前市场风险偏好由权益产品向固收产品转移,以权益型产品配置见长的券商 财富管理业务仍然承压,预计代销收入同比下滑。2)投行业务:202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has three main business segments: IT distribution, cloud computing & digital transformation, and self-branded (Xinchuang) products IT distribution accounts for over 90% of revenue and provides a solid foundation for cloud and Xinchuang businesses [2] - From 2018 to 2023, the company's revenue grew from RMB 81 858 billion to RMB 119 624 billion, with a CAGR of 7 88% Non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company grew from RMB 472 million to RMB 1 263 billion, with a CAGR of 21 76% [2] - The company is a dual-leading partner of Huawei's Kunpeng and Ascend ecosystems, positioning it well to benefit from the rapid growth of domestic computing power demand [3] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 124 495 billion, RMB 131 179 billion, and RMB 139 614 billion in 2024-2026, with net profits of RMB 1 395 billion, RMB 1 664 billion, and RMB 1 992 billion, respectively [3] Business Segments IT Distribution - IT distribution is the company's traditional business, leveraging its cash flow, logistics, and channel systems to deliver IT products to the consumer market It holds a leading position in China's IT distribution industry with a comprehensive channel and sales network [10] - In 2023, IT distribution accounted for 91% of total revenue, with consumer electronics and enterprise value-added services contributing 67 88% and 32 12%, respectively [12][53] Cloud Computing & Digital Transformation - The cloud computing and digital transformation business provides full lifecycle products, solutions, and services for clients at different stages of digital transformation, including cloud resale (AGG), cloud management services (MSP), and digital solutions (ISV) [11] - Revenue from this segment grew from 0 71% in 2018 to 5 79% in 2023, making it the company's second-largest business [12] Self-Branded (Xinchuang) Products - The self-branded business, centered around Huawei's Kunpeng computing power, includes servers, PCs, and routers under the "Shenzhou Kuntai" brand [11] - Revenue from this segment accounted for 3 20% in 2023, with steady growth since the establishment of the Xiamen Xinchuang production base in 2020 [12] Financial Performance - From 2018 to 2023, the company's revenue grew from RMB 81 858 billion to RMB 119 624 billion, with a CAGR of 7 88% Non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company grew from RMB 472 million to RMB 1 263 billion, with a CAGR of 21 76% [2][20] - The company's gross margin and net margin remained stable at 3 99% and 1 01% in 2023, respectively [21] Strategic Partnerships - The company is a dual-leading partner of Huawei's Kunpeng and Ascend ecosystems, positioning it well to benefit from the rapid growth of domestic computing power demand [3] - The company has a long-standing partnership with Huawei, dating back to 2011, and has been deeply involved in the Kunpeng and Ascend ecosystems since 2018 [46] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 124 495 billion, RMB 131 179 billion, and RMB 139 614 billion in 2024-2026, with net profits of RMB 1 395 billion, RMB 1 664 billion, and RMB 1 992 billion, respectively [3] - The company's cloud and Xinchuang businesses are expected to continue growing, driven by the increasing demand for digital transformation and domestic computing power [12][3]

投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -34% -26% -18% -11% -3% 5% 美容护理 沪深300 分析师 刘洋 SAC 证书编号:S0160521120001 liuyang01@ctsec.com 联系人 李梦萱 limx@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《医美业绩总结:对标海外具备高成 长性,关注品类迭代》 2024-05-22 2. 《新股专题报告(二) ——芭薇股份 (837023.BJ)》 2024-03-12 3. 《胶原蛋白系列之一:结构、功能、 自组装与交联》 2024-01-18 核心观点 事件: 1)诺和诺德用于长期体重管理的司美格鲁肽产品"诺和盈"在中国获批,根 据其 Ⅲ 期临床试验,作为全球首个且目前唯一用于长期体重管理的胰高糖素 样肽-1 受体激动剂(GLP-1RA)周制剂,诺和盈可以实现平均 17%(16.8kg) 的体重降幅,并带来多重健康获益,包括但不限于减少腰围、降低内脏脂肪、 改善血脂、延缓糖尿病前期进展等。 2)国家卫健委等 16 部门印发《"体重管理年"活动实施方案》,提出积极营造 体重管理社会支持性环境;强化家庭体重管理的重要作用;发挥专 ...

投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -29% -22% -14% -7% 0% 8% 电子 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 张益敏 SAC 证书编号:S0160522070002 zhangym02@ctsec.com 联系人 王矗 wangchu01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《景气度呈现复苏态势,国产替代集 中发力》 2024-05-23 2. 《铜互联,数据中心通信网络重要解 决方案》 2024-05-23 3. 《行业景气复苏,覆铜板迎接新一轮 涨价周期》 2024-05-05 2024 半年度业绩前瞻 核心观点 ❖ 总体来看,整体电子板块在 2024Q2 边际持续改善。收入端来看,AI 需 求景气维持,传统行业亦迎来同环比改善。而从细分产品价格和毛利率来看, 我们观察到部分产品或产业链环节在 2024Q2 价格有所调涨,而此前原材料成 本的下降亦逐步在报表端体现,整体毛利率环比趋势亦边际向上。 ❖ 半导体:全行业周期复苏渐次展开。我们在此前报告《AI 引领复苏,重视 技术迭代增量》中分析得出,本轮半导体周期的核心驱动因素是 AI,算力和 存储核心受益,并展望其余行业亦有望逐步企稳 ...

投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 | --- | --- | |------------------------|------------| | 基本数据 | 2024-06-27 | | 收盘价 ( 元 ) | 17.90 | | 流通股本 ( 亿股 ) | 6.73 | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 11.71 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 6.76 | | 最近 12 月市场表现 | | -44% -34% -24% -15% -5% 5% 上海家化 沪深300 分析师 刘洋 SAC 证书编号：S0160521120001 liuyang01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《战略调整初显成效，扣非归母净利 润+29%》 2024-04-23 2. 《业绩短期承压，期待战略加速调整 后迎来拐点》 2024-03-16 3. 《Q3 业绩承压，期待组织架构优化 带来增效》 2023-10-26 上海家化(600315) / 化妆品 / 公司点评 / 2024.06.27 换帅赋能品牌&渠道，稳中有序加速推进改革 ❖ 新任 CEO 为公司品牌端、渠道端赋能。品牌端，公司将有梯队地形成品 牌矩阵，第 ...

投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 机械设备 沪深300 上证指数 -29% -23% -16% -9% -2% 5% 分析师 佘炜超 SAC 证书编号:S0160522080002 shewc@ctsec.com 分析师 孟欣 SAC 证书编号:S0160523090002 mengxin@ctsec.com 分析师 谢铭 SAC 证书编号:S0160523010001 xieming@ctsec.com 联系人 孙瀚栋 sunhd@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《 智 能 机 器 人 行 业 深 度 报 告 》 2024-04-18 2. 《电子皮肤行业深度研究报告》 2024-02-06 3. 《工控自动化行业专题》 2024-01- 24 核心观点 ❖ OPE 设备产品多样,全球市场稳定增长:户外动力设备(Outdoor Power Equipment, OPE)主要用于草坪、花园或庭院维护,目前正进入锂电动力阶段。 全球 OPE 市场稳健增长,弗若斯特沙利文预计到 2025 年市场规模将达 324 亿 美元,2016-2025 年 CAGR 为 5.5%。OPE 产业链上游原材料占 ...

投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -39% -30% -21% -13% -4% 5% 电力设备 沪深300 分析师 张一弛 SAC 证书编号:S0160522110002 zhangyc02@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《关注特高压,锂电池涨价》 2024- 06-20 2. 《江苏海风风机进一步推动,关注特 高压二次配网》 2024-06-11 3. 《政策产业同频共振,低空经济扶摇 直上》 2024-06-06 核心观点 周观点 ❖ 电力设备:新增特高压陕北-安徽项目配套设备招标,特高压需求明确,预计 十五五仍将保持高需求。海外 5 月出口数据变压器继续高增(同比+43%,环 比+5%),电表环比显著恢复(同比+14%,环比+37%)。 ❖ 风电:帆石一变更用海公布,建议重点关注海风海缆管桩,陆风头部主机零 部件机会。 ❖ 光储:下游各环节减产价格基本企稳,国内装机略低于预期,亚非拉是高增 区域,跟踪支架以及亚非拉大储小储需求爆发。主产业链的反弹出清机会值得 关注。 ❖ 锂电:天赐材料同宁德时代再签长协,龙头地位进一步获得确立,也意味着 双方对六氟板块盈利见底的共识。行业底部筑底期 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The computer industry faces performance and valuation pressure due to external disturbances and high valuation starting points from the generative AI technology introduction in 2023[6] - As of June 25, 2024, the Shenyuan Computer Index's TTM price-to-earnings ratio has dropped to 46.18, below the opportunity value of 47.32, at the 18.6th percentile[9] - The overall sector is expected to have limited horizontal comparative advantages in 2024[9] Group 2: Investment Focus - Focus on undervalued leading companies in vertical fields that can integrate into the global generative AI industry chain and have strong customer payment capabilities[6] - The AI hardware sector is projected to maintain double-digit growth, with domestic manufacturers expanding into overseas markets[16] - The smart automotive sector is expected to see L2+ penetration rates rise from 30% in 2023 to 50% in 2024, benefiting leading companies[14] Group 3: Risk Factors - Risks include potential underperformance of AI technology iterations and lower-than-expected IT investments from downstream clients[40] - The macroeconomic environment poses risks to vertical companies linked to economic conditions[29]

投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 房地产开发 沪深300 上证指数 单击或点击此处输入文字。 6 -30% -20% -11% -1% 9% 19% 分析师 毕春晖 SAC 证书编号:S0160522070001 bich@ctsec.com 联系人 欧阳之光 oyzg@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《房地产行业周报(2024 年第 24 周)》 2024-06-17 2. 《房地产行业周报(2024 年第 22 周)》 2024-06-03 3. 《房地产行业周报(2024 年第 21 周)》 2024-05-29 核心观点 ❖ 本周板块回顾:本周申万房地产指数下跌 5.76%,沪深 300 指数较上周下 跌 1.3%,板块跑输沪深 300 指数 4.47pct,在 31 个板块中排第 31 位。 ❖ 行业数据回顾:本周 30 大中城市商品房成交面积 216 万平米,环比+35.6%, 同比-21.6%。细分城市能级来看,30 大中城市中,一线城市商品房成交面积 60 万平米,环比+47.7%,同比-9.9%;二线城市商品房成交面积 108 万平米, 环比+31.8%,同比-31.4%; ...