行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月22日 行 业 周 报 电 力 设 备 与 新 能 源 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张帆远 S0630524070002 zfy@longone.com.cn 联系人 赵敏敏 zmmin@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -49% -38% -27% -17% -6% 4% 15% 23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04 申万行业指数:电力设备(0763) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.光伏硅片价格维稳,海风建设稳步 推 进 — — 新 能 源 电 力 行 业周 报 (2024/07/08-2024/07/14) 2.光伏新技术产业化加快,电动车需 求恢复——电力设备新能源行业周 报(2023/6/26-2023/7/02) [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle 锂电板块下游需求旺盛 ] ,储能行业低价 竞争或将改善 ——电池及 ...

[table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 市场逐步演绎海外降息+特朗普2.0交易。海外方面，美国总统拜登当地时间7月21日宣布 退出2024年总统大选。拜登表示，将全力支持和认可美国副总统哈里斯获得民主党总统候 选人的提名，后续关注美国大选两党博弈。就特朗普而言，相比此前拜登政府主张，其倾 向于引导制造业回流、支持传统能源以及更为严格的移民政策。对内主张对企业减税并实 施财政扩张，对华或仍坚持关税加征。海外市场来看，美股周内出现明显调整。估值角度， 现金流较为充沛的大型科技企业在利率高企背景下存在相对优势，积累涨幅较大。而近期 年内降息预期的发酵，对其他中型科技企业及生物医药企业形成利多。估值角度，无风险 利率的下行有助于改善成长标的比如医药生物及科技企业分母端的变量。对于国内，七月 以来市场风格逐步由高股息切换至科技相关，部分可能受益于海外降息交易下流动性及估 值的改善，另一方面，国内利率平台区间波动，使得短期债市投资的机会成本相对增加， 对应高股息板块亦出现调整。整体而言，海外变量演绎整体对权益市场利多，沪深300ETF 规模明显回暖。特朗普对华贸易主张或边际下修下半年国内出口增速预期。回顾2018年201 ...

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月22日 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 任晓帆 S0630522070001 rxf@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -45% -35% -25% -14% -4% 6% 17% 23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04 申万行业指数:美容护理(0777) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.抖音韩束表现亮眼,锦波生物半年 报业绩预告高增 ——美容护理行业 周报(2024/7/1-2024/7/5) [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle] 6月社零承压,关注国货表现 ——美容护理行业周报(2024/7/15-2024/7/19) [table_main] 投资要点: ➢ 市场表现:(1)美容护理板块:本周沪深300指数上涨1.92%,申万美容护理指数下跌 2.41%,行业跑输大盘4.33pcts,涨幅在全部申万一级行业中排倒数第6位。(2)个股方面: 本周板块内涨幅前五的个股分别为ST美谷(2.12%)、贝泰妮(1.38 ...

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月21日 行 业 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 陶圣禹 S0630523100002 tsy@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -25% -17% -9% -1% 7% 15% 23% 23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04 申万行业指数:非银金融(0749) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.融券逆周期调节优化市场秩序,看 好政策催化下的配置机遇——非银 金融行业周报( 20240708- 20240714) 2.强化融券逆周期调节与程序化交 易监管,推动资本市场高质量发展— —非银金融行业简评 3.中期分红提升保险板块吸引力,把 握并购重组概念调整后的配置机遇 ——非银金融行业周报(20240624- 20240630) [table_invest] 超配 [Table_NewTitle 续期拉动缓解寿险新单压力,非车增速 ] 提升推动财险边际改善 ——上市险企2024年6月保费点评 [table_main] 投资要点: ➢ 事件:A股上市险企披露20 ...

总 量 研 究 [擘画Table_NewTitle] 改革图景，政策或会加力 ——宏观周观点（20240715-20240719） [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 胡少华 S0630516090002 hush@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人 高旗胜 gqs@longone.com.cn ➢ 核心观点：二十届三中全会本周召开，从公报表述看，实现全年既定经济增速目标或是 底线要求。从周一公布的经济数据看，上半年实际GDP同比5.0%，其中二季度4.7%较一 季度有所放慢，环比动能也相对偏弱。为实现全年目标，下半年稳增长政策可能会进一 步加强，后续关注《决定》文件发布细节。美国大选因"狙击事件"变化很快，"特朗普 主义"广受关注。A股本周表现稳定，业绩预告披露情况看，有色、公用事业等占优。 ➢ 坚定不移实现全年经济社会发展目标。从二十届三中全会公报内容来看，基本实现社会 主义现代化是全面深化改革的总目标，在向总目标迈进的过程中，高水平社会主义市场 经济体制是重要保障，高质量发展是首要任务，发挥我国制度优势 ...

[Table_Report] [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20240719 [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 2.绝味食品（603517）：深耕鸭脖主业，单店提振进行时——公司深度报告 ➢ 1.中共中央将举行新闻发布会，解读二十届三中全会精神。 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 2. 财经新闻 4. 市场数据 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 晨会纪要 1.1.以全面深化改革推进中国式现代化——二十届三中全会 公报学习解读 联系人：高旗胜，gqs@longone.com.cn 一、全面深化改革的总目标与总政策 2.高水平社会主义市场经济体制是中国式现代化的重要保障。全会提出，必须更好发挥 市场机制作用，畅通国民经济循环。保证各种所有制经济依法平等使用生产要素、公平参与 市场竞争、同等受到法律保护。要构建全国统一大市场，完善市场经济基础制度。市场经济 体制是实现社会主义现代化的基础性制度，意味着更加强调公平竞争、产权保护、有效市场 和有为政府的结合。未来在制度层面或将对市场垄断、不正当竞争等行为进一步规范，推动 新业 ...

总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2023年07月18日 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, considering its strong brand influence, high market recognition, and advantages in store count and production capacity [4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve EPS of 1.23, 1.42, and 1.60 yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12X, 10X, and 9X, which are lower than the industry average [4] - The company's revenue is projected to grow steadily, with 2024-2026 revenue estimated at 7.904, 8.514, and 9.097 billion yuan, respectively, with a CAGR of 8.85%, 7.71%, and 6.86% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 765.12, 877.83, and 993.93 million yuan for 2024-2026, with a CAGR of 14.73% and 13.23% [5] Industry Overview - The Chinese braised food market is expanding, with the market size expected to grow from 233 billion yuan in 2018 to 405.1 billion yuan in 2023, maintaining a steady growth rate of 9%-15% [3] - The industry is highly fragmented, with the top player, Juewei Food, holding a market share of only 5.39% in 2020, indicating significant room for growth for leading companies [3] Company Overview - The company has a stable and concentrated equity structure, with major shareholders including Shanghai Jucheng, Shanghai Huigong, Shanghai Chengguang, and Shanghai Fubo, holding 32.94%, 7.80%, 2.67%, and 2.44% of the shares, respectively [23] - The company has implemented equity incentive plans to motivate employees, with 847,800 stock options granted in 2022, covering 178 key employees, including 2 executives and 176 core staff [24] Business Strategy - The company follows a "land grab" strategy, rapidly expanding its store network, with the number of stores increasing from 1,000 in 2008 to 5,000 in 2013 [28] - The company is focusing on improving single-store revenue while maintaining steady store expansion, with the total number of stores reaching 15,950 in 2023, a net increase of 874 stores [80] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 7.261 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.64%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 344.31 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.63% [5] - The company's gross margin was 24.77% in 2023, down 0.80 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to rising raw material costs, but is expected to improve in 2024 [67] Market Expansion - The company is actively expanding into lower-tier cities, with about 60% of its stores located in first- and second-tier cities, leaving significant room for growth in third- and fourth-tier cities [31] - The company has established 22 production bases (including 3 under construction), each covering a radius of 300-500 kilometers, ensuring efficient supply chain management [118] Product and Brand Strategy - The company's main revenue comes from fresh food products, with poultry products accounting for 72.71% of fresh food revenue in 2023 [84] - The company is targeting the "Z generation" as its main customer base, launching various flavored products and collaborating with popular IPs to attract younger consumers [122] Competitive Landscape - The braised food industry is highly fragmented, with the top three companies holding only 3.66% of the market share in 2020, indicating significant room for consolidation [172] - The company's main competitors include Zhou Hei Ya and Huang Shang Huang in the leisure braised food segment, and Zi Yan Food in the meal braised food segment [162]

Key Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring marginal performance changes and suggests positioning in individual stock opportunities within the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [1][52]. Economic Overview - The employment situation remains stable, with the urban survey unemployment rate at 5.0% in June 2024, unchanged from the previous month [5]. - In the first half of 2024, per capita income increased by 5.4% year-on-year, while actual consumption expenditure rose by 6.7%, indicating a 1.4% growth in income over expenditure [5]. Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Sector Analysis - The total market capitalization of the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector in A-shares is 5.56 trillion yuan, accounting for 6.54% of the total A-share market [7]. - The sector's trading volume for the week was 225.3 billion yuan, representing 6.49% of the total A-share trading volume, with a week-on-week increase of 8.58% [7]. - The report notes a net outflow of 1.838 billion yuan in main funds from the pharmaceutical industry last week [7]. Market Performance - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector slightly underperformed the broader market index, showing signs of stabilization. The report highlights a focus on individual stock performance during the earnings disclosure period [15]. - The sector has experienced a 21.07% decline year-to-date, underperforming the broader market by 22.27% [34]. - The current PE valuation for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is 24.0 times, at a historical low, with a valuation premium of 108% compared to the CSI 300 index [34]. Consumer Spending Trends - In June 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.0732 trillion yuan, growing by 2.0% year-on-year, which is below the expected 4.0% [31]. - The report indicates that online consumption is declining, while offline consumption is recovering rapidly, with offline retail sales growing by 8.6% year-on-year in June [31]. Investment Suggestions - The report recommends focusing on high-quality stocks with strong performance and those with sufficient risk release and reversal expectations [15][37]. - Specific stock recommendations include Teva Biopharmaceuticals, Kelun Pharmaceutical, and others within the pharmaceutical sector [16][53].

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月16日 [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle] 6月社零同比+2.0%,可选消费承压 ——6月社零报告专题 行 业 深 度 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 任晓帆 S0630522070001 rxf@longone.com.cn 联系人 吴康辉 wkh@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈涛 cht@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] 相关报告 5月社零专题:5月社零维持温和复 苏,可选消费显弹性 4月社零专题:假日错月叠加高基 数,4月社零弱复苏 3月社零专题:3月社零受季节扰 动,未来仍具增长韧性 [table_main] 投资要点: ➢ 2024年6月社零同比增长2.0%,同比增速放缓。2024年6月社会消费品零售总额40732亿 元,同比增长2.0%,低于wind一致预期(+4.0%);增速较上月下滑1.7pct,受618大促时 间前置、汽车价格下行等因素影响,6月社 ...