Group 1 - The report highlights a rebound in manufacturing PMI to 49.2% in November, up from 49.0% in October, driven by easing trade tensions between China and the US, particularly in new export orders [6][7] - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.5% from 50.1%, indicating a seasonal decline in the service sector, while the construction sector showed resilience with a rising expectation index [6][8] - High-energy industries showed a slight recovery, with the PMI for high-energy industries at 48.4%, up 1.1 percentage points, while the equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors continued to decline [8][9] Group 2 - The report anticipates significant elasticity in the economic cycle in the second half of 2026, driven by corporate inventory behaviors and the need for long-term raw material contracts [12][14] - Global asset performance showed an upward trend in November, with notable rebounds in technology stocks and commodities like gold and copper, while the dollar index slightly declined [12][13] - The report suggests that the domestic equity market is expected to remain stable, with a focus on sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion and technological advancements, such as non-ferrous metals and power equipment [17][18] Group 3 - The mechanical equipment industry is expected to benefit from improved industry standards and evaluation systems, which will promote orderly development and commercialization of intelligent manufacturing technologies [19][20] - The establishment of national standards in the robotics sector is progressing, with 126 national standards published since the establishment of the national robotics standardization technical committee in 2021 [20][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of standardization in creating a fair competitive market environment, which will help alleviate market chaos and promote high-quality development in the intelligent manufacturing sector [22]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年11月30日 [从企业年末的库存行为，预计 Table_NewTitle] 2026年下 半年周期弹性较大 ——资产配置周报（2025/11/24-2025/11/28） [table_main] 投资要点 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 [Table_Report] ➢ 全球大类资产回顾。11月28日当周，全球股市上涨，科技风格反弹明显；主要商品期货中 黄金、铜、原油、铝均收涨；美元指数小幅下跌，非美货币普遍升值。1） ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年11月30日 [贸易摩擦缓和后的回弹 Table_NewTitle] ——国内观察：2025年11月PMI [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 李嘉豪 S0630525100001 lijiah@longone.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点 宏 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 观 简 评 ➢ 事件：11月30日，国家统计局公布11月官方PMI数据。11月，制造业PMI为49.2%，前值 49.0%；非制造业PMI为49.5%，前值50.1%。 ➢ 核心观点：中美贸易摩擦的缓和或推动11月制造业PMI的回弹，尤其是新出口订单指数 的明显回升。价格指数仍存分化，反映下游需求仍显不足。非制造业PMI中，假期效应 消退，服务业季节性回落；建筑业强于季节性，预期指数在高位进一步上升，但两者在 绝对水平上有差异，或是受冬季施工相对淡季等因素制约，后续实物工作量形成或推动 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年11月28日 超配 行 业 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王敏君 S0630522040002 wmj@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -20% -8% 4% 15% 27% 39% 51% 24-11 25-02 25-05 25-08 申万行业指数:机械设备(0764) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.工业机器人产量增速亮眼，产业链 国产替代持续推进——机械设备行 业简评 [Table_NewTitle 期待行业标准化体系进一步完善，促进 ] 具身智能与机器人产业发展 ——机械设备行业简评 [table_main] 投资要点： 业 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 机 械 设 备 [table_invest] ➢ 加速构建行业标准与评价体系，推动训练与中试平台建设，有望引导产业发展更加有序。 以机器人技术和人工智能为代表的智能制造领域正在跨越式发展，但同时，产品同质化、 低水平重复建设、数据难以 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年11月28日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人： 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20251128 重点推荐 财经要闻 ➢ 1.国家发改委：要注意防范重复度高的人形机器人产品"扎堆"上市 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.基数压力显现，行业亦有分化——国内观察：2025年10月工业企业利润数据 ➢ 2.10月挖掘机外销持续向好，龙头推进电动化全球化——机械设备行业简评 晨会纪要 1.重点推荐 1.1.基数压力显现，行业亦有分化——国内观察：2025 年 10 月工业企业利润数据 | 1. 重点推荐 | | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.1. 基数压力显现，行业亦有分化——国内观察：2025 | 年 10 月工业企业利润数 | | | 据 | | 3 | ...

Group 1: Excavator and Loader Sales - In October 2025, excavator sales reached 18,096 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.77%, with domestic sales at 8,468 units (up 2.44%) and exports at 9,628 units (up 12.9%) [5][6] - For the first ten months of 2025, a total of 192,135 excavators were sold, representing a 17% year-on-year growth, with domestic sales increasing by 19.6% and exports by 14.4% [5][6] - Loader sales in October 2025 totaled 10,673 units, a 27.7% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales up 33.2% and exports up 22.6% [5] Group 2: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The domestic excavator market is recovering strongly, supported by government initiatives for urban renewal and infrastructure projects, which are expected to release demand [6][8] - The global demand for excavators is also increasing, with a 14.4% year-on-year growth in exports for the first ten months of 2025, indicating a positive trend in overseas markets [6][8] - The industry is entering a rational growth phase, with expectations for continued recovery in sales throughout the year [6] Group 3: Forklift Sales and Market Dynamics - In October 2025, forklift sales reached 114,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, with domestic sales at 70,400 units (up 16.2%) and exports at 43,900 units (also up 16.2%) [11][12] - The overall forklift sales for the first ten months of 2025 totaled 1,220,700 units, reflecting a 14.2% year-on-year growth [11] - The growth in forklift sales is attributed to the recovery in manufacturing and logistics sectors, as well as improved competitiveness of domestic forklift manufacturers in international markets [12][15] Group 4: Company-Specific Developments - SANY Heavy Industry has completed its production base in South Africa, enhancing its global presence and capacity to produce 1,000 excavators annually for the African market [7] - Zoomlion has launched several innovative electric excavators, addressing industry pain points and aligning with global trends towards green technology [7][15] - Hangcha Group has made significant strides in the hydrogen forklift market, delivering a large order of hydrogen-powered forklifts, marking a step forward in its green product offerings [14][15] Group 5: AIOT Market and Company Performance - Zhongke Lanyun (688332) is a leading AIOT company based on the RISC-V architecture, with a projected revenue growth from 927 million yuan in 2020 to 1.819 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 18.36% [17][18] - The company maintains a gross margin of around 20% and a net profit margin that is among the highest in the industry, benefiting from efficient cost management and a diverse product portfolio [17][18] - The global TWS earphone market is expected to grow significantly, with Zhongke Lanyun capturing nearly 30% of the market share in TWS earphone chips, indicating strong competitive positioning [18][19]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The forklift sales in October 2025 reached 114,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. Domestic sales were 70,400 units, up 16.2%, while overseas sales were 43,900 units, also up 16.2%. Cumulative sales from January to October 2025 totaled 1,220,700 units, reflecting a 14.2% year-on-year growth [4]. - The growth in forklift sales is attributed to the robust performance of domestic forklift companies in overseas markets and the increasing global demand for forklifts. The demand for forklifts is closely linked to the manufacturing and warehousing logistics sectors [4]. - Hangcha Group launched the X1 series humanoid robots, marking a significant step towards transforming from a traditional industrial vehicle manufacturer to a smart logistics solution provider [4]. - Hangcha completed a large order for hydrogen fuel forklifts, delivering 108 units, which signifies a deeper collaboration in the hydrogen-powered industrial vehicle sector and supports the low-carbon economy [4]. - JD Logistics announced plans to purchase 3 million robots, 1 million unmanned vehicles, and 100,000 drones over the next five years, indicating a shift towards large-scale application of intelligent logistics systems [4]. - The report suggests focusing on leading domestic forklift companies with strong brand recognition and R&D capabilities, such as Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, and Zhongli Co., as they are well-positioned to benefit from the recovery in manufacturing and logistics demand [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more in the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive trend in excavator exports, with a year-on-year increase of 12.9% in October 2025, contributing to a total of 93,790 units exported from January to October 2025, which is a 14.4% increase year-on-year [6]. - The domestic sales of excavators also showed a strong recovery, with a total of 98,345 units sold from January to October 2025, marking a 19.6% increase year-on-year [6]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing globalization efforts of leading companies like SANY Heavy Industry, which has established a production base in South Africa, and Zoomlion, which has launched innovative electric equipment to address industry challenges [6]. Summary by Sections Excavator Sales - In October 2025, a total of 18,096 excavators were sold, reflecting a 7.77% year-on-year growth, with domestic sales at 8,468 units (2.44% increase) and exports at 9,628 units (12.9% increase) [6]. - For the first ten months of 2025, excavator sales reached 192,135 units, a 17% increase year-on-year [6]. Loader Sales - In October 2025, 10,673 loaders were sold, showing a 27.7% year-on-year increase, with domestic sales at 5,372 units (33.2% increase) and exports at 5,301 units (22.6% increase) [6]. - Total loader sales from January to October 2025 amounted to 104,412 units, a 15.8% increase year-on-year [6]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a continued recovery in the domestic engineering machinery industry, driven by government policies promoting urban renewal and infrastructure projects [6]. - It suggests that companies with strong brand recognition, comprehensive product matrices, and efficient cost management, such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, LiuGong, Shantui, and Hengli Hydraulic, should be closely monitored [6].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][8]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic AIOT enterprise based on the RISC-V instruction set, maintaining a leading net profit margin in the industry. It has developed a range of high-performance CPU cores and various functional module IPs, including Bluetooth and audio chips, which are widely used in wireless interconnected terminals [4][14]. - The company has experienced significant revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18.36% from 2020 to 2024, driven by its competitive pricing strategy and expansion into emerging markets [4][44]. - The global TWS earphone market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 34.88% over the next eight years, benefiting the company as it captures a substantial market share [4][8]. - The company is diversifying its AIOT product offerings, including smart wearables and wireless microphones, and is well-positioned to capitalize on the industry's growth [4][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading integrated circuit design firm focused on wireless audio SoC chips, established in 2016 and listed on the STAR Market in 2022. It has developed a product architecture consisting of ten product lines, including Bluetooth earphone chips and AIoT chips [14][21]. Product Structure - The company has a diverse product structure with a focus on Bluetooth earphone chips (59% of revenue), Bluetooth speaker chips (21%), and smart wearable chips (7%) for 2024. The product range is expanding to meet various market demands [4][28]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to reach 20.02 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 3.17 billion yuan. The net profit margin has remained above 13%, indicating strong cost control and operational efficiency [6][44][49]. Market Opportunities - The global TWS earphone market is projected to reach approximately $51.4 billion in 2022, with significant growth expected in the coming years. The company is well-positioned to benefit from this trend due to its strong market presence and product offerings [4][8]. Competitive Position - The company maintains a competitive edge through its proprietary RISC-V architecture, which allows for cost savings and flexibility in chip design. This positions the company favorably against competitors in the AIOT space [17][49]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with revenue forecasts of 24.11 billion yuan in 2026 and 29.65 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a robust market demand for its products [6][8].

Group 1: Longxin Zhongke (688047) - The company is the only domestic CPU manufacturer that builds an independent information technology system based on its own instruction set, independent of x86 and ARM architectures, establishing a competitive edge in the open market [5][6] - Longxin's product lineup includes the Longxin 1 MCU, Longxin 2 SoC, and Longxin 3 CPU series, which have significantly improved cost-performance ratios, positioning the company for a new growth cycle [5][6] - The demand for domestic CPUs is driven by the acceleration of AI server and AIPC shipments, with a projected 24.3% growth in global AI server shipments in 2025, and a 34% penetration rate for AIPC in mainland China [6][7] - The company maintains control over its core IP and instruction set, allowing for x86/ARM instruction translation, which enhances its competitive position in the market [7][9] - Longxin's focus on the domestic market and gradual expansion into the open market is supported by its cost-performance advantages, with expectations of a 30-50% improvement in cost-performance for terminal chips and 50-100% for server chips over the next three years [9][10] Group 2: Shengde Xintai (300881) - The company operates a dual business model focusing on high-end pipes and automotive components, benefiting from both traditional energy and new energy sectors [12][13] - Revenue growth is notable, with increases of 64.1% in 2023 and 34.4% in 2024, and a reported revenue of 2.325 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [12][13] - The company has a strong market position in the small-diameter stainless steel pipe market for power station boilers, with a focus on high-tech products that yield higher profit margins compared to ordinary steel pipes [13][14] - The demand for high-end boiler pipes is expected to remain strong due to the anticipated addition of 47.44 million kilowatts of new thermal power capacity in 2024 [13][14] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.043 billion, 3.220 billion, and 3.411 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 240 million, 276 million, and 309 million yuan [14]