[Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月19日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人： 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250619 [table_summary] 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 ➢ 1.擘画金融开放新局，注能前沿科技突围——2025陆家嘴论坛解读之宏观视角 ➢ 2.新设科创成长层，构建多元资本市场体系和产品服务矩阵——2025陆家嘴论坛解读之资 本市场聚焦（四） ➢ 3.更大力度推进开放合作，把握银发经济和财富管理发展浪潮——2025陆家嘴论坛解读之 保险业态观察（四） ➢ 4.结构性工具进一步扩容，金融资源向继续"五篇大文章"倾 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - In May 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, exceeding the consensus expectation of 4.85% [10][12] - Urban retail sales growth has outpaced rural markets for three consecutive months, with urban sales increasing by 6.5% and rural sales by 5.4% in May [12] - Offline retail performance is stronger than online, with offline retail sales growing by 10.50% year-on-year in May, while online sales saw a decline of 4.25% [15][24] Summary by Sections Overall Retail Sales - The total retail sales in May 2025 grew by 6.4% year-on-year, reaching 41,326 billion yuan, which is higher than the expected growth rate [10][12] Regional Performance - Urban retail sales amounted to 36,057 billion yuan, growing by 6.5%, while rural retail sales were 5,269 billion yuan, with a growth of 5.4% [12] Channel Performance - Offline retail sales increased by 10.50% year-on-year, while online retail sales decreased by 4.25% in May [15] Category Performance - The restaurant sector saw stable growth, with a total revenue of 4,578 billion yuan, up 5.9% year-on-year. The total retail sales of goods reached 36,748 billion yuan, growing by 6.5% [24] - Essential and discretionary categories showed strong performance, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.38% for essentials and 7.87% for discretionary items in May [30][31] Price Trends - Both CPI and PPI showed a year-on-year decline, with CPI at -0.1% and PPI at -3.3% in May [37][39] Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate in May 2025 was 5.0%, marking a continuous decline for three months [46][48] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor and regional leaders in the liquor industry due to competitive dynamics. It also recommends attention to the restaurant supply chain as consumer spending in dining is expected to recover [54]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月17日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人： 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250617 重点推荐 | 1. 重点推荐 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 年 1.1. 消费表现亮眼，地产拖累加深——国内观察：2025 5 月经济数据 | 3 | | 1.2. 白酒继续筑底，关注旺季景气板块——食品饮料行业周报（2025/6/9- | | | 2025/6/15） | 4 | | 1.3. 险企 2026 起全面实施新会计准则，关注陆家嘴论坛带来的政策预期——非 | | | 银金融行业周报（20250609-20250615） | 5 | | 1.4. 百菌清价格调涨，关注农化板块相关机会——基础化工行业 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights the price increase of Bacillus thuringiensis (百菌清) and the potential benefits for related companies due to rising production costs and environmental policy upgrades [3][12] - The report indicates a positive outlook for the adipic acid (己二酸) market, with a price increase and strong demand from downstream nylon production [4][13][14] - The report suggests focusing on integrated leading companies in the adipic acid sector, as well as other segments like petrochemicals and agrochemicals, due to favorable supply conditions and rising prices [5][17] Summary by Sections 1. Industry News and Events - Bacillus thuringiensis price increased to 30,000 CNY/ton, with a 68.57% year-on-year rise, benefiting companies like Limin Co., Sulih Co., and Taihe Co. [3][12] - Adipic acid market price rose to 7,233 CNY/ton, a 6.63% increase, driven by strong demand from nylon production [4][13][14] 2. Chemical Sector Performance - The report notes that the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25%, while the Shenwan Petrochemical Index rose by 3.50%, outperforming the market [5][18] - The top-performing sub-sectors included oil and gas engineering, with a 9.33% increase, while viscose saw a decline of 3.40% [20][24] 3. Key Product Price Trends - Key products with notable price increases included WTI crude oil (7.17%), Brent crude oil (6.22%), and adipic acid (3.77%) [28][29] - Products experiencing price declines included Vitamin E (-14.67%) and dichloromethane (-8.47%) [28][29] 4. Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include focusing on integrated players in the refining-PX-PTA chain, such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [5][17] - Attention is also drawn to leading companies in the refrigerant sector and those involved in agricultural chemicals due to favorable market conditions [5][17]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月16日 标配 行 业 周 报 [Table_Authors] 证券分析师 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 联系人 董经纬 djwei@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] [table_product] 相关研究 1.博通2025Q2 AI营收大幅增 长，存储市场持续回暖——电 子行业周报2025/6/2-2025/6/8 1. 博通2025Q2 AI营收大幅增长， 存储市场持续回暖——电子行业周 报（2025/6/2-2025/6/8） 2. 英伟达Q1数据中心业务成绩亮 眼，美限制EDA龙头对华提供服务 ——电子行业周报（2025/5/26- 2025/6/1） 3. 小米发布自研玄戒双芯，华为鸿 蒙电脑正式发布——电子行业周报 （2025/5/19-2025/5/25） [Table_NewTitle] 英伟达拟在欧洲新建多座AI工厂，华为 发布Pura 80系列 ——电子行业周报2025/6/9-2025/6/15 [table_main] 投资要点： 电 子 证券研究报 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that in May 2025, domestic sales of excavators slightly declined by 1.48% year-on-year, while exports increased by 5.42%. The overall sales of excavators from January to May 2025 showed a year-on-year growth of 17.4% [7]. - The report notes that the domestic sales of loaders increased by 16.7% year-on-year in May 2025, with a total of 10,535 units sold. The electric loader sales reached 2,765 units, marking a penetration rate of 26.25% [5][7]. - Major companies in the construction machinery sector are planning to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to raise funds for overseas expansion and enhance their global brand influence [7]. Summary by Sections Excavator Sales - In May 2025, a total of 18,202 excavators were sold, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.12%. Domestic sales accounted for 8,392 units, down 1.48%, while exports reached 9,810 units, up 5.42% [7]. - The report attributes the slight decline in domestic sales to the traditional construction off-season and the pre-emptive demand from the previous months' high growth [7]. Loader Sales - Loader sales in May 2025 totaled 10,535 units, with domestic sales of 6,037 units, up 16.7% year-on-year. Exports were 4,498 units, down 3.31% [5][7]. - The report emphasizes the trend towards electric loaders, with sales of 2,765 units in May 2025, indicating a growing acceptance and market recognition of electric machinery [7]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the construction machinery industry is on a recovery trajectory, supported by government policies aimed at infrastructure investment and the replacement of old equipment [7]. - It recommends focusing on leading companies with strong brand recognition, comprehensive product matrices, and efficient cost management, such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion [7].

证券分析师：吴骏燕 执业证书编号：S0630517120001 证券分析师：张晶磊 执业证书编号：S0630524090001 证券分析师：谢建斌 执业证书编号：S0630522020001 联系人：花雨欣，hyx@longone.com.cn 2025年6月16日 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 5 ● 5月轮胎上游原材料价格：2025年5月丁二烯均价9725.00元/吨，环比上涨4.47%，同比下降14.37%；天然橡胶均价 1773.42美元/吨，环比上涨0.04%，同比上涨4.27%；丁苯橡胶均价12263.64元/吨，环比下降1.05%，同比下降9.03%； 炭黑均价6462.90元/吨，环比下降7.50%，同比下降27.79%；锦纶帘子布均价18552.60元/吨，环比下降4.86%，同比下 降17.54%。 轮胎主要原材料价格月度变化 | 产品 | 单位 | 2025年5月 | 2025年4月 | 2024年5月 | 同比 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人： 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250616 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月16日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.政府融资继续支撑社融，M1增速改善——银行业"量价质"跟踪（十五） ➢ 2.事件推动油价大幅波动，及对资产配置的影响——资产配置周报（2025/06/09- 2025/06/14） ➢ 1.以色列伊朗持续互袭，俄美首脑通话讨论局势 ➢ 2.国常会：更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳 ➢ 3.央行公告6月16日进行4000亿元买断式逆回购操作 | 1.1 ...

方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人： 董经纬 djwei@longone.com.cn 联系人： 李嘉豪 lijiah@longone.com.cn [Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月13日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250613 重点推荐 [table_summary] ➢ 1.关税冲击尚未显现，需求端预期或成关键——海外观察：美国2025年5月CPI数据 ➢ 2.制冷剂行业延续高景气——氟化工行业月报 ➢ 3.己二酸短期基本面有望向好，关注一体化龙头企业——基础化工行业简评 ➢ 1.央行、国家外汇局联合印发《关于金融支持福建探索海峡两岸融合发展新路 建设两岸融 合发展示范区的若干措施》 ➢ 2.国务院总理李强会见欧洲中央银行行长拉加德 ➢ 3.特朗普准备签署美英贸易协议的关键部分 ➢ 4.美国公布5月PPI数据 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月12日 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn [关税冲击尚未显现，需求端预期或成关 Table_NewTitle] 键 ——海外观察：美国2025年5月CPI数据 [table_main] 投资要点 | | | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MEETING DATE | | 200-225 225-250 250-275 275-300 | | | | 300-325 325-350 350-375 | | 375-400 | 400-425 | 425-450 | 450-475 | | 2025/6/18 | | | | | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 ...