[晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle]20250708 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 重点推荐 财经要闻 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年07月08日 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.商保目录将推出，新药上市在加快————医药生物行业周报（2025/06/30- 2025/07/04） ➢ 2.重视新品类和新渠道下的α机会——食品饮料行业周报（2025/6/30-2025/7/6） ➢ 3.旷达科技（002516）：汽车内饰主业稳健增长，2024年员工持股首批解锁落地——公司 简评报告 ➢ 4.国产GPU新秀IPO获受理，EDA对华禁令解封——电子行业周报2025/6/30 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock price in the next six months [1][5]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated resilience in its core automotive interior business, achieving a revenue of 2.098 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.35%, significantly exceeding its target [5]. - The first unlocking phase of the employee stock ownership plan has been completed, with 36 holders unlocking a total of 4.6706 million shares, accounting for 0.32% of the total share capital [5]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in profits in 2025, with a projected net profit of 2.17 billion yuan, reflecting a growth trajectory supported by product structure optimization and the potential of the filter business as a second growth driver [5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company’s main revenue is projected to grow from 2.098 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.343 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 12% year-on-year increase [4][6]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The net profit is expected to rise from 163 million yuan in 2024 to 217 million yuan in 2025, marking a 33% increase [4][6]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to increase from 0.11 yuan in 2024 to 0.15 yuan in 2025 [4][6]. - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin is expected to stabilize at around 24% from 2025 onwards [4][6]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: ROE is projected to improve from 4% in 2024 to 6% in 2025 [4][6]. Business Segment Performance - **Automotive Interior Business**: This segment achieved a revenue of 1.926 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 20.88%, driven by the recovery in the automotive industry and an increase in orders for new energy vehicle components [5]. - **New Energy Business**: The new energy segment faced challenges, with revenue declining by 17.99% to 172 million yuan in 2024 due to insufficient grid consumption capacity and falling market prices [5]. - **Filter Business**: The company’s filter business is expected to contribute positively as production ramps up, with plans to launch new products in 2025 [5].

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年07月07日 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 吴康辉 S0630525060001 wkh@longone.com.cn -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 食品饮料(申万) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] [Table_NewTitle 重视新品类和新渠道下的α机会 ] ——食品饮料行业周报（2025/6/30-2025/7/6） 超配 [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 风险提示：宏观经济增长不及预期；竞争加剧的影响；食品安全的影响。 行 业 研 究 食 品 饮 料 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 周 报 [table_invest] 1.政策纠偏情绪修复，聚焦供需改善 方 向 — — 食 品 饮 料 行 业 周 报 （2025/ ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年07月07日 标配 行 业 周 报 [Table_Authors] 证券分析师 [Table_NewTitle] 国产GPU新秀IPO获受理，EDA对华禁 令解封 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 联系人 董经纬 djwei@longone.com.cn ——电子行业周报2025/6/30-2025/7/6 [table_main] 投资要点： 电 子 [table_stockTrend] [table_product] 相关研究 1.博通2025Q2 AI营收大幅增 长，存储市场持续回暖——电 子行业周报2025/6/2-2025/6/8 1. 小米发布首款AI眼镜，端侧AI创 新热潮持续——电子行业周报 （2025/6/23-2025/6/29） 2. DDR4价格大涨，Marvell释放 ASIC市场乐观预期——电子行业周 报（2025/6/16-2025/6/22） 3. 英伟达拟在欧洲新建多座AI工 厂，华为发布Pura 80系列——电子 行业周报（2025/6/9-2025/6/15） 件(+6.82%) ...

● 2025年以来，消费复苏缓慢，传统食品饮料需求承压，细分板块呈现结构性机会。建议优先关注成长性较强的零食，以及处于 向上修复阶段的啤酒和乳制品。 ● 啤酒：需求边际改善，成本下行释放利润弹性。2024年终端消费较弱，啤酒龙头推进渠道库存去化，库存水平处于历史低位， 板块估值回落至5年低分位。2025年1-5月社零餐饮收入同比有所改善，在旺季低基数和消费政策刺激下，啤酒销售数据修复确 定性较高，有望催化估值抬升。另外成本仍处于下行周期，叠加产品结构持续优化，利润弹性可期。建议关注生鲜高端化优势突 出，盈利改善稳健的青岛啤酒和成长势能强劲的燕京啤酒。 ● 零食：品类与渠道共振，高成长延续。零食板块呈现高景气度和高成长性，强品类与新渠道持续催化。从产品来看，消费者需求 升级趋势明显，健康功能性零食备受关注，以魔芋为代表的产品快速出圈，兼具健康属性和味觉体验，实现高增。从渠道来看， 零食量贩跑马圈地后，两大龙头占据主要市场份额。此外，会员商超渠道崛起，选品引领行业潮流，成为各大零食企业新的发力 点。建议关注盐津铺子、劲仔食品。 ● 乳制品：供需格局逐步改善，静待周期拐点到来。生鲜乳价格持续创年内新低，奶牛养殖亏损 ...

⚫ 上半年出货增速向好，关注后续基数等因素的影响。回顾2024年，国补政策主要在四季度发力。进入2025年，从产业在线的出货 数据看，上半年尚未显现市场所担忧的透支效应。2025年上半年，空调内销需求延续较为旺盛的趋势。尤其从二季度来看，受益 于去年较低的同期基数以及旺季叠加"618"等促销备货的催化，出货增速有所加快。出货数据反映的是经销商的提货意愿。从零 售角度看，随着4月传统旺季启动，市场亦有回暖迹象，奥维云网数据显示，4月空调线上零售同比增长34.8%，线下零售同比增长 12.2%。暑期天气因素对空调销售有一定催化作用。例如，对华北、华东等地的持续高温预期，或带动渠道备货及终端购买。而从 基数看，2024年的二季度部分南方地区持续阴雨，致使空调零售基数较低。此外，今年头部品牌在以旧换新的背景下采取更为主 动的营销策略，折扣玩法及配套服务均有所优化；京东、苏宁等电商平台也加强了针对以旧换新的体验式营销。但同时，部分消费 者呈现出消费降级的意愿，购买决策周期延长，更倾向于等待"618"等大型促销节点集中释放需求。综合来看，考虑到2024年空 调出货"前低后高"的影响，以旧换新对短期出货的边际拉动作用或将有 ...

Group 1 - The "Beautiful America Act" signed by the US President aims to significantly reduce taxes, increase defense spending, and cut social welfare and new energy subsidies, indicating a potential shift in fiscal policy [8][17][18] - The US labor market shows signs of resilience with a non-farm employment increase of 147,000 in June, surpassing expectations, but the private sector added only 74,000 jobs, highlighting underlying weaknesses [16][17][18] - In China, the "anti-involution" policy is expected to synchronize with market-driven forces, impacting industries like photovoltaic, refining, and steel, which may affect upstream raw material prices [8][10] Group 2 - The energy storage industry is experiencing a rebound after a period of decline, with demand expected to surge in emerging markets, particularly in China, the US, and Europe [11][13][14] - The global energy storage demand is projected to grow significantly, with China's cumulative installed capacity expected to reach 137.9 GW by the end of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 59.4% [13][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of core drivers for energy storage installations, including consumption, profitability, and reliability of electricity supply, with extreme weather and geopolitical events increasing backup power demand [12][14] Group 3 - The A-share market shows mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,472 points, facing resistance at the 3,500-point level, while the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices experienced declines [27][28] - The gaming sector led the market with a 1.65% increase, while sectors like energy metals and wind power equipment saw declines, indicating sector-specific volatility [29][30] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring market liquidity and interest rates, with the 10-year Chinese government bond yield declining to 1.6433% [34]

Employment Data Overview - In June 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, exceeding expectations of 110,000 and slightly up from the previous month's 144,000[2] - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%, indicating a slight improvement in the labor market[2] Private vs. Government Employment - Private sector employment added only 74,000 jobs, nearly half of May's increase of 137,000, highlighting a significant slowdown[2] - Government employment surged by 73,000, with state government jobs rising to 47,000, the highest since February 2023, signaling a shift in fiscal policy towards expansion[2] Sector-Specific Insights - Manufacturing jobs decreased by 7,000, while wholesale employment also fell by 7,000, attributed to inventory buildup and weak demand[2] - Service sector jobs saw a decline of over 53%, with healthcare and accommodation sectors experiencing the most significant drops[2] Wage and Participation Rate Trends - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.3%, the lowest since 2023, indicating a shrinking workforce[2] - Hourly wage growth slowed, particularly in durable goods manufacturing and healthcare, with rates dropping to -0.3% and -0.1% respectively[2] Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the employment data release, market expectations for a September interest rate cut decreased from 71.5% to 68.3%[3] - The strong government employment figures and the passage of the "Beautiful America Act" suggest a potential shift towards more expansive fiscal policies in the second half of the year[3]

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry Insights - The semiconductor industry showed continuous recovery in June 2025, with price increases expanding, driven by demand in AI computing, AIOT, semiconductor equipment, and key components [6][8][12] - Global semiconductor sales in April 2025 increased by 22.68% year-on-year, indicating overall demand recovery [8] - The demand for TWS earphones, wearable devices, AI servers, and new energy vehicles is recovering well, contributing significantly to semiconductor demand [9][12] Group 2: Satellite Chemical Company Overview - The U.S. has lifted the export ban on ethane to China, which is expected to benefit Satellite Chemical, given its core assets in U.S. ethane exports [13][14] - Satellite Chemical has secured a long-term agreement for 175,000 barrels per day of ethane from its U.S. terminal, enhancing its competitive position [15][16] - The company is positioned in the lowest cost range for ethylene production in China, benefiting from lower operational and raw material costs [17][18] Group 3: Macroeconomic and Asset Allocation Outlook - The domestic economy is showing resilience driven by export demand and new policies, although real estate remains a pressure point [19][20] - The second half of 2025 is expected to see a gradual decline in GDP growth rates, with a focus on the importance of domestic demand [19][20] - Asset allocation strategies suggest a focus on technology and consumer sectors, with a balanced approach to core and satellite investments in banking [21][24] Group 4: Banking Sector Analysis - The banking sector is facing increased competition, particularly among regional banks, leading to a wave of mergers and acquisitions [22][23] - Profitability and dividend stability are expected to remain, with a focus on balancing core and satellite strategies in investment portfolios [24][25] - The outlook for the banking sector remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of stable profits and dividends despite potential risks [25]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy focusing on both core and satellite positions within the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for stable profits and dividends [3][4]. Core Insights - The banking industry is experiencing intensified competition, particularly among regional banks, which are undergoing significant reforms and consolidation to enhance market competitiveness and financial stability [3][18]. - Recent operational pressures have emerged, with banks facing challenges in asset-liability management, net interest margins, and asset quality, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and regulatory frameworks [3][4]. - Profitability and dividend distributions are expected to remain stable, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and promoting consumption [3][4]. - The report advocates for a "core + satellite" investment strategy, recommending high-dividend state-owned banks as core holdings, complemented by cyclical regional banks as satellite investments [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Competitive Landscape of Commercial Banks - National banks dominate the market due to their capital, network, and customer advantages, while regional banks are increasingly consolidating to improve competitiveness [3][10]. 2. Business Models of Commercial Banks - National banks focus on diversified business models, while regional banks primarily engage in asset-liability operations, heavily reliant on local economic conditions [3][26]. 3. Performance Attribution of Commercial Banks - The performance of banks is driven by three factors: scale (asset size), price (net interest margin), and quality (asset quality), all of which are currently under pressure [3][4]. 4. Outlook for Commercial Banking Operations - The report anticipates a stabilization in profits and dividends, with a positive outlook for the banking sector as macroeconomic policies continue to support recovery in consumption and investment [3][4]. 5. Investment Strategy - A balanced investment approach is recommended, focusing on high-dividend state-owned banks and cyclical regional banks to optimize returns in a low-interest-rate environment [3][4].