Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the planetary roller screw industry, particularly driven by the increasing demand from humanoid robots and the potential for domestic manufacturers to capture market share from established European firms [3][59]. Core Insights - Planetary roller screws are gaining traction in various industries due to their compact size, high efficiency, and durability, making them a preferred choice in automotive, engineering machinery, machine tools, robotics, medical devices, and oil and gas sectors [3][10]. - The humanoid robot market is expected to significantly boost the demand for planetary roller screws, with projections indicating a need for 14 million units by 2029, translating to a market expansion of 11.2 billion yuan [3][52]. - European manufacturers currently dominate the high-end market for planetary roller screws, but domestic companies are accelerating their development and production capabilities, creating opportunities for market entry [3][59]. Summary by Sections 1. Barriers to Entry in Planetary Roller Screw Production - The production of planetary roller screws involves high barriers due to the need for specialized materials, mature processes, and advanced grinding equipment, resulting in high manufacturing costs and challenges in scaling production [3][18][23]. 2. Acceleration of Humanoid Robot Production - The report highlights the rapid development of humanoid robots, with major companies announcing mass production plans, which will drive the demand for planetary roller screws significantly [3][27][39]. 3. European Manufacturers Lead the High-End Market - In 2022, the top four manufacturers in the planetary roller screw market in China were Rollvis (Switzerland), GSA (Switzerland), Rexroth (Germany), and Ewellix (Sweden), with market shares of 27%, 26%, 13%, and 12% respectively [3][59]. 4. Investment Opportunities in Domestic Manufacturers - The report recommends focusing on domestic companies that have secured key clients, possess high-end processing equipment, and emphasize R&D innovation, such as Hengli Hydraulic, Wuzhou New Spring, Best, Beite Technology, Shuanglin Co., Qinchuan Machine Tool, and Huachen Equipment [3][59].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more in the next six months [14]. Core Insights - The report highlights the revision of the "Securities Company Classification Evaluation Regulations" aimed at optimizing resource allocation and enhancing the operational efficiency of securities firms. This revision is based on previous regulations and emphasizes the importance of service to the real economy and national strategies [7][8]. - The report suggests that the future specifics of high-quality development will be a major driving force for the long-term growth of the capital market, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions, high "financial inclusion rate," and improvements in ROE as key investment themes [8]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has solicited opinions on the draft revision of the "Securities Company Classification Evaluation Regulations," which aims to enhance the evaluation framework and promote the functional role of securities companies [7]. - The revision includes the integration and optimization of business development indicators, supporting differentiated and specialized development for small and medium-sized institutions [7]. Business Development Indicators - The report outlines changes in scoring for business development, including the cancellation of revenue ranking bonuses to reduce redundancy and an increase in the emphasis on ROE to guide firms towards efficient development [7][12]. - New specialized indicators have been added to align with regulatory goals, such as promoting long-term capital market participation and wealth management services [7]. Risk Management and Compliance - The revised regulations introduce stricter penalties for major violations, allowing for direct downgrades to D class for companies with significant legal infractions, thereby encouraging proactive error correction and risk management [7][9]. - Adjustments in scoring for self-regulatory organization penalties have been made to enhance the deterrent effect of disciplinary actions [10]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on large securities firms with strong capital and stable operations as potential investment opportunities, particularly in the context of the anticipated regulatory changes and market dynamics [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the liquor sector, particularly high-end liquor and regional leaders, is expected to stabilize and rebound due to policy corrections and improving market sentiment. The white liquor industry is currently in a bottoming phase, with a focus on high-end products and strategic upgrades by leading companies [5][11]. - The beer sector is approaching its peak season, with improved sales performance expected as the weather warms up and consumption policies continue to support demand. The report notes a slight year-on-year increase in beer production in May 2025 [5][26]. - The snack food segment is experiencing high growth and favorable market conditions, driven by strong product categories and new distribution channels. The report emphasizes the potential of healthy snack options like konjac products [5]. - The report also discusses the dairy sector, indicating a potential recovery in supply-demand dynamics as production decreases and summer demand for cold dairy products rises [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector saw a slight decline of 0.12% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.33 percentage points, ranking 4th among 31 sectors [5][11]. - The beer sub-sector performed well, with a 1.91% increase [5]. 2. Key Consumption and Raw Material Prices - White liquor prices have shown a downward trend, with notable decreases in the prices of high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye [20][21]. - Beer production in May 2025 was 3.584 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [26]. - Dairy prices are under pressure, with fresh milk averaging 3.04 yuan per kilogram, marking a year-on-year decrease of 7.90% [28]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a 13.4% year-on-year decline in white liquor production in May 2025, while beer production showed a slight decline of 0.3% year-to-date [51]. - E-commerce sales for alcoholic beverages have surged, with a 39.6% increase during the Tmall 618 sales event, indicating a shift towards self-consumption [52]. 4. Core Company Developments - Key companies like Guizhou Moutai and Qingdao Beer are distributing significant cash dividends to shareholders, reflecting strong financial performance [53].

Core Viewpoints - The energy metals sector has broken through multiple significant resistance levels, emerging from a medium-term downtrend formed over the past two years and is now above a long-term downtrend line that has persisted for four years. Compared to historical highs, the index remains at a relatively low level. The index has formed a "head and shoulders bottom" pattern over the past two years, solidifying its base. Currently, the index is approaching the neckline resistance of the "head and shoulders" pattern, which is also a convergence zone of multiple short-term resistances, indicating potential volatility due to the tug-of-war between bulls and bears. However, the short-term technical conditions of the index are gradually improving, and after appropriate fluctuations, breaking through the neckline and nearby resistances is likely. Once the neckline and surrounding resistances are effectively breached, the upward space between the index and historical highs may open up [1]. Energy Metals Sector Analysis - The energy metals sector has broken through multiple important resistance levels. On June 23, 2025, the sector closed with a long bullish candlestick, breaking through the top resistance of a trading range that had formed over 40 trading days, the 555-day long-term moving average resistance, and the medium-term downtrend line formed by two highs in November 2024 and March 2025. The index is now above the long-term downtrend line formed by the highs in September 2021 and July 2022, indicating a reversal of the long-term downtrend that has persisted since the historical high in September 2021 [2][4][8]. - The short-term technical conditions of the index are gradually improving. On June 23, 2025, the index surged with volume that was approximately double that of the previous trading day, exceeding the single-day volume of the past 50 trading days. Currently, the 5-day, 20-day, and 60-day moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, trending upwards. The index is above the weekly moving average system, and although the short-term weekly moving averages have not yet formed a bullish arrangement, the index is above the 20-week moving average, with the 5-week moving average having crossed above the 10-week moving average, both trending upwards. The 60-week moving average has also begun to trend upwards, indicating positive signs in the weekly moving averages. The daily KDJ and MACD indicators are in a bullish crossover, and there is a cross-cycle bullish crossover among the daily, weekly, and monthly MACD indicators, suggesting favorable short-term technical indicators [2][6]. - The index remains at a relatively low level, with a solidified base and significant upward potential. Since the historical high in September 2021, the index has experienced a decline of over 80% by June 23, 2025, accumulating buying power for a potential rebound. The index has broken through the long-term downtrend line formed by the highs in September 2021 and July 2022, reversing the long-standing downtrend. Since August 2023, the index has been constructing a "head and shoulders bottom" pattern over the past two years, with the "head" being a double bottom. The index is currently approaching the neckline resistance, and if it effectively breaks through this level, there is significant upward potential towards the historical high in September 2021 [2][8]. - The index is currently under multiple short-term resistance levels, indicating potential volatility in the short term. Although the index has broken through multiple important resistances, there are still short-term resistances that need to be overcome. The index is at the neckline resistance, which is also a previous high point and a Fibonacci retracement level of 0.191. Due to the multiple resistance levels, there may be short-term fluctuations as bulls and bears contend. However, the volume, price, indicators, and trends are gradually improving, and after sufficient fluctuations, breaking through the neckline and nearby resistances is likely. Once these resistances are effectively breached, the upward space may open up [2][8].

Group 1: Pet Food Industry Insights - The pet food market continues to grow, with a total sales volume of 75 billion yuan during the "618" shopping festival, representing a year-on-year increase of 36% [6][10] - Domestic brands dominate the market, with notable performances from brands like MaiFuDi and FreyGat, which have shown significant rankings improvements on platforms like Tmall and JD [7][8] - The overall pet consumption market is projected to reach 331.1 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.3% [10] Group 2: Chemical Industry Analysis - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Iran and Israel, are expected to drive up oil prices due to concerns over supply disruptions [13][14] - The closure of the hexamethylenediamine plant by a major company may lead to increased prices for nylon 66, as supply diminishes in the Asia-Pacific region [14] - The chemical sector has seen a decline in indices, with the basic chemical index dropping by 2.49% recently [15] Group 3: Mechanical Equipment Sector - The demand for harmonic reducers is surging, particularly in the industrial robotics sector, which accounts for 75% of their usage [18][19] - The domestic market for harmonic reducers reached 2.49 billion yuan in 2023, with expectations for significant growth as humanoid robots enter mass production [18][19] - Domestic manufacturers are poised to capture more market share due to technological advancements and production capacity expansions [20][21] Group 4: Pharmaceutical and Medical Devices - The pharmaceutical sector has experienced a decline of 4.35% recently, but innovation in drug development remains a core investment focus [22][24] - Recent policy changes from the National Medical Insurance Administration aim to expedite the approval process for innovative drugs, which could enhance market opportunities [23][24] - The medical device sector is also set to benefit from new policies supporting high-end medical equipment innovation [24] Group 5: Non-Banking Financial Sector - The non-banking financial index fell by 1.1%, with a notable divergence between securities and insurance indices [27] - Recent regulatory changes in the classification of securities companies are expected to promote high-quality development and support smaller institutions [28] - The insurance sector is seeing increased regulatory scrutiny on dividend insurance, which may alleviate concerns over profit margins [29][30]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the harmonic reducer industry, particularly driven by the growth in humanoid robots and industrial robots [3][4]. Core Insights - The primary downstream application for harmonic reducers is in industrial robots, which account for approximately 75% of the market. In 2023, the domestic consumption of harmonic reducers for industrial robots reached 669,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 4.64% [3][20]. - The demand for harmonic reducers is expected to surge due to the acceleration of humanoid robot production, with projections indicating a need for 14 million harmonic reducers by 2029, leading to a global market increment of 8.4 billion yuan [3][60]. - The supply side shows that major player Harmonic Drive has a cautious expansion plan, which may not meet the rising demand from humanoid robots, presenting opportunities for domestic manufacturers to capture market share [3][70][74]. Summary by Sections 1. Industrial Robots as the Main Downstream - Industrial robots are the largest application area for harmonic reducers, with a consumption share of 75% in 2023 [20][24]. - The average number of harmonic reducers used in industrial robots is around three [24]. 2. Accelerated Production of Humanoid Robots - The production of humanoid robots is entering a rapid growth phase, with major companies announcing mass production plans [34][58]. - The demand for harmonic reducers is projected to increase significantly, with estimates suggesting a need for 1.4 million units by 2029 due to the expected production of humanoid robots [60][61]. 3. Supply Side Dynamics - Harmonic Drive dominates the global market with an 85% share, while domestic player Green Harmonic holds 8% [62][66]. - Domestic manufacturers are actively expanding production capacity to meet the growing demand, with several companies planning significant increases in output [74][75]. 4. Companies to Watch - The report highlights several domestic companies with strong R&D capabilities and production expansion plans, including Green Harmonic, Reedy Drive, and others [3][74][77].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, indicating that the sector is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by at least 10% over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector experienced a decline of 4.35% in the week of June 16-20, 2025, ranking 30th among 31 sectors in the Shenwan index, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.90 percentage points. Year-to-date, the sector has risen by 4.57%, ranking 6th among all sectors and outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.81 percentage points [3][12][16]. - The current PE valuation of the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector stands at 27.21 times, which is at the historical median level, with a valuation premium of 123% compared to the CSI 300 index [19]. - The report highlights significant recent developments in the industry, including a meeting by the National Healthcare Security Administration to discuss adjustments to the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance Drug List and the Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug List [4][27]. - The National Medical Products Administration has proposed to shorten the review and approval process for innovative drug clinical trials to 30 working days, aiming to encourage the development and market entry of innovative drugs [28]. Market Performance - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector's performance has been mixed, with a notable decline in the week of June 16-20, 2025. The top three declining sub-sectors were chemical pharmaceuticals, medical services, and pharmaceutical commerce, with declines of 5.48%, 4.92%, and 4.42%, respectively [12][16]. - Year-to-date, the chemical pharmaceuticals, medical services, and biological products sub-sectors have shown increases of 18.57%, 5.03%, and 0.60%, respectively [16]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the recent significant decline in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector presents a buying opportunity for long-term investors. It emphasizes that innovative drugs remain the core investment focus within the sector [29]. - The report recommends monitoring the selection principles, price negotiations, and access policies related to the upcoming adjustments in the commercial health insurance innovative drug list [29]. - Specific stock recommendations include: - Recommended stocks: Betta Pharmaceuticals, Teva Biopharmaceuticals, Lao Bai Xing, Ling Rui Pharmaceutical, and Nuotai Biopharmaceuticals - Stocks to watch: Kelun Pharmaceutical, Rongchang Biopharmaceutical, Lijun Pharmaceutical, Qianhong Pharmaceutical, and Kaili Medical [30].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [37]. Core Insights - The non-bank financial index experienced a decline of 1.1% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.6 percentage points. The securities index fell by 1.7%, while the insurance index rose by 0.3% [4][8]. - The average daily trading volume of stock funds was 14,638 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.3% week-on-week. The margin financing balance was 1.81 trillion yuan, down 0.2% from the previous week [4][17]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced reforms to the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, which includes the introduction of a new growth tier to better serve technology companies with significant breakthroughs and high R&D investments [4][32]. - The CSRC is seeking public opinion on the revised "Securities Company Classification Evaluation Regulations," which aims to enhance the evaluation framework and promote high-quality development in the industry [4][32]. - The insurance sector is seeing increased regulatory scrutiny on participating insurance products, which is expected to alleviate concerns over interest spread losses [4][32]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.5%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.2%. The CSI 300 also decreased by 0.5%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 1.7% [8][9]. Market Data Tracking - The average daily trading volume of stock funds was 14,638 billion yuan, down 11.3% week-on-week. The margin financing balance was 1.81 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.2% [17]. Industry News - The CSRC published guidelines for establishing a growth tier on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, aimed at enhancing the adaptability of the system for quality technology companies [32]. - The CSRC is soliciting opinions on the revised "Securities Company Classification Evaluation Regulations," which focus on promoting high-quality development and encouraging differentiated operations among smaller institutions [32]. - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) has initiated assessments for international active insurance groups, recognizing China Reinsurance (Group) Company as an international active insurance group [32].

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月23日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250623 重点推荐 财经要闻 | 1. 重点推荐 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 1.1. 关注油价变量与市场风险偏好——资产配置周报（2025/06/16-2025/06/21） | | | | 3 | | 1.2. 维持鹰派立场，内部分歧加剧——海外观察：2025 年 6 月美国 FOMC 会议 | | | | 4 | | 2. 财经新闻 | 6 | | 3. A 股市场评述 | 8 | | 4. 市场数据 | 10 | 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary ...

[维持鹰派立场，内部分歧加剧 Table_NewTitle] ——海外观察：2025年6月美国FOMC会议 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 [table_main] 投资要点 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 宏 观 简 评 总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月19日 liusj@longone.com.cn ➢ 事件：当地时间6月18日，美联储召开6月FOMC会议，继续维持基准利率在4.25%-4.50% 不变。 ➢ 核心观点：5月FOMC继续维持基准利率不变，符合市场的预期。点阵图较3月更加鹰派， 并且显示美联储内部决议官员意见分歧加剧。同时，FOMC声明中将"经济前景不确定性 进一步增加"改成"不确定性有所减退(diminished)"，并且删除了"高失业高通胀风险 上升"的表述。6月SEP将2025年和2026年的经济预测下调，通胀预测和失业预测上调。 美联储主席鲍威尔在发布会上一反此前"通胀暂时论"说法，提到近期通胀预期上行的情 况，并且认为关税对 ...