Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electronics sector, indicating a gradual recovery in demand and price stabilization, with a recommendation to gradually accumulate positions in the market [6][7]. Core Insights - Nvidia has announced the resumption of sales for its H20 chip to China, alongside AMD's MI308, which is expected to alleviate the domestic market's computing power shortage in the short term. The long-term trend remains focused on the acceleration of domestic AI chip self-sufficiency [6][12]. - TSMC reported a Q2 2025 revenue of approximately $30.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44.4%, with a net profit surge of 60.7%. The revenue from 7nm and below process nodes accounted for 74% of total revenue, driven primarily by AI and high-performance computing demand [6][12]. - Global smartphone shipments grew by 1% year-on-year in Q2 2025, while shipments in China declined by 4%, marking the end of a six-quarter growth streak. The growth in the global market is attributed to innovations in AI technology and new product launches [6][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The electronics sector is experiencing a mild recovery in demand, with a focus on four main investment themes: AIOT, AI-driven technologies, equipment materials, and consumer electronics [6][7]. Company Performance - Nvidia's H20 and AMD's MI308 chips are set to resume sales to China, indicating a potential easing of geopolitical tensions and a boost for domestic AI chip development [6][12]. - TSMC's Q2 2025 financial results exceeded expectations, with significant contributions from AI and HPC-related demands, projecting a nearly 30% revenue growth for the full year [6][12]. Market Trends - The report highlights a 1% year-on-year increase in global smartphone shipments, with a notable decline in the Chinese market, reflecting a shift in consumer demand and market dynamics [6][14]. - The electronics industry outperformed the broader market, with the semiconductor sector showing positive growth, particularly in electronic components and consumer electronics [21][23].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next six months [1][29]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has shown strong performance, with an overall increase of 4.00% in the week from July 14 to July 18, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.91 percentage points [3][11]. - Year-to-date, the sector has risen by 16.59%, ranking third among 31 industries, and has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 13.45 percentage points [3][13]. - The current PE valuation for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector stands at 30.02 times, which is at the historical median level, with a valuation premium of 137% compared to the CSI 300 index [3][17]. Market Performance - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector's sub-sectors that performed best last week include chemical pharmaceuticals (6.86%), biological products (3.68%), and medical services (3.14%) [3][11]. - A total of 397 stocks (82.88%) in the sector increased in value, while 70 stocks (14.61%) decreased [3][23]. - The top five performing stocks were: - Borui Pharmaceutical (42.35%) - Lisheng Pharmaceutical (41.68%) - Nanxin Pharmaceutical (34.95%) - Aosaikang (32.77%) - Yipinhong (32.13%) [3][24]. Industry News - The 11th batch of national centralized procurement was officially launched on July 15, with 55 drug varieties included, focusing on mature clinical drugs and excluding new drugs from procurement [4][25]. - He Yuan's plant-derived recombinant human serum albumin (HY1001) was approved for domestic marketing on July 18, aimed at treating liver cirrhosis with low albumin levels [4][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector remains a strong investment opportunity, particularly in innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices, traditional Chinese medicine, chain pharmacies, and medical services [5][27]. - Recommended stocks include: - Buy: Betta Pharmaceuticals, Teva Biologicals, Lao Baixing, Huaxia Eye Hospital, Qianhong Pharmaceutical, Baipusais [5][27]. - Focus: Kelun Pharmaceutical, Rongchang Biotechnology, Lizhu Group, Lingrui Pharmaceutical, Kaili Medical, Kangtai Biotechnology [5][27].

Key Insights - The report emphasizes a longer investment cycle, transitioning from price rebounds to performance realization, highlighting the importance of sustained earnings in equity markets compared to commodity investments [6][8] - A fire incident at Covestro's German plant has disrupted TDI supply, leading to price increases due to limited availability and strong overseas demand [11][12] - Forklift sales in the first half of 2025 have shown double-digit growth, with domestic sales increasing by 27.3% and exports by 15.2%, driven by strong demand in manufacturing and logistics sectors [16][17] - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing a significant shift from concept to mass production, with major companies ramping up investments and production plans, indicating a burgeoning market potential [21][22] Group 1: Investment Logic and Market Overview - The global asset review indicates a mixed performance in stock markets, with the Hang Seng Tech Index outperforming other indices, while commodity prices have shown varied trends [6][8] - The RJ/CRB commodity price index has increased by 2.97% since early July, reflecting a broader trend of price fluctuations in commodities [8] - The report notes that the domestic equity market is characterized by a growth-oriented style, with a daily average trading volume of 15,260 billion yuan [7] Group 2: Chemical Industry Insights - The incident at Covestro has resulted in a significant supply disruption for TDI, with an estimated 117,000 tons of capacity affected globally, representing 35% of total capacity [12][13] - Domestic TDI prices have surged, with prices in East China reaching 13,700-14,200 yuan per ton, reflecting a rise of over 2,000 yuan since July [12][14] - The report suggests that Chinese companies are well-positioned to capture increased export opportunities in the TDI market due to shrinking overseas capacity [13][15] Group 3: Machinery and Robotics Sector - The forklift market is projected to continue its growth trajectory, supported by improving macroeconomic indicators and increasing logistics demands [17][19] - The report highlights the rapid growth of the unmanned forklift market, with a 46.6% increase in sales in 2023, driven by rising labor costs and the need for automation [19][20] - The humanoid robot sector is set to expand significantly, with projections indicating a market size of 150 billion yuan by 2029, driven by advancements in core components and increased production capacity [22][23]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年07月20日 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [周期更长的投资逻辑， Table_NewTitle] 从价格反弹到业 绩兑现 ——资产配置周报（2025/07/14-2025/07/18） [table_main] 投资要点 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 [Table_Report] ➢ 全球大类资产回顾。7月18日当周，全球股市多数收涨；主要商品期货中铜、铝收涨，黄 金、原油下跌；美元指数上涨，非美货币贬值。1）权益方面：恒生科技指数>创业板指> ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the humanoid robot industry, highlighting significant growth potential driven by policy support and technological advancements [3][10]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing rapid development, with government policies emphasizing embodied intelligence as a key focus for future industrial growth [10]. - Major companies are investing heavily in humanoid robotics, leading to accelerated technological progress and market expansion [3][8]. - The production of humanoid robots is set to increase significantly, with projections estimating a global market size of 150 billion yuan by 2029 [3][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Emergence of the Humanoid Robot Industry - The humanoid robot sector is entering a phase of industrialization, with advancements in AI enhancing interaction and learning capabilities [6][8]. 2. Harmonic Reducers: Acceleration of Domestic Production - Domestic manufacturers are ramping up production of harmonic reducers, which are critical components for humanoid robots [22][39]. 3. Planetary Roller Screws: Breakthrough in Domestic Production - The planetary roller screw market is expanding, with increasing applications in various industries, including automotive and robotics [56][68]. 4. Frameless Torque Motors: Domestic Performance Surpassing Expectations - Domestic frameless torque motors are showing competitive advantages in performance and cost, contributing to the overall growth of the humanoid robot market [28][29]. 5. Dexterous Hands: Technological Iteration and Upgrades - The development of dexterous hands is crucial for enhancing the functionality of humanoid robots, with ongoing technological improvements [22][28]. 6. Six-Dimensional Torque Sensors: Continuous Cost Reduction - The market for six-dimensional torque sensors is expected to grow as costs decrease, making them more accessible for humanoid robot applications [22][28]. 7. Market Potential and Production Plans - Companies like Tesla and Figure AI are planning significant production increases, with Tesla aiming for 5000 units in 2025 and up to 1 million units by 2029 [17][19].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more in the next six months [8] Core Insights - The recent fire incident at Covestro's Dormagen plant in Germany has led to supply disruptions in key chemicals, including chlorine, which is critical for TDI production. This incident is expected to impact TDI supply significantly [7] - TDI prices have been rising due to limited supply and strong overseas demand, with prices in East China reaching 13,700-14,200 CNY/ton as of July 17, reflecting an increase of over 2,000 CNY/ton since July [7] - China's TDI exports have surged, reaching a historical high of 51,600 tons in May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 98.45%, driven by tariff incentives and rising demand in Southeast Asia [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights structural opportunities in the organic silicon industry following Dow's closure of its UK plant [3] - The fluorochemical sector is expected to maintain its favorable performance due to anticipated earnings growth [3] Recent Events - Covestro's fire incident has caused a significant impact on its production capabilities, particularly affecting TDI and other related products [7] - The TDI supply chain is facing constraints due to multiple factors, including maintenance shutdowns and increased export orders [7] Market Dynamics - The report notes that overseas TDI production capacity is shrinking, providing a competitive advantage for Chinese companies in the global market [7] - The demand growth in Southeast Asia is projected to remain between 6-8% annually, making it a core market for Chinese TDI exports [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from the tightening TDI supply and rising prices, specifically mentioning Wanhua Chemical and Cangzhou Dahua [7]

Group 1: Retail Sales Insights - In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 42,287 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which was below the consensus expectation of 5.56% [5][6] - For the first half of 2025, the total retail sales amounted to 245,458 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, with Q2 showing a 5.4% increase compared to Q1 [5][6] - Urban retail sales in June were 36,559 billion yuan, growing by 4.8% year-on-year, while rural retail sales were 5,728 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.5% [5][6] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Trends - Online retail sales showed rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.5% for the first half of 2025, while physical retail improved steadily with a 3.59% year-on-year growth in June [5][6] - The food and beverage sector experienced a significant decline, with restaurant service revenue in June rising only 0.9% year-on-year, a drop of 5.0 percentage points from the previous month [6][8] - Essential goods continued to perform well, with year-on-year growth rates for essential and discretionary items at 5.92% and 2.15%, respectively [6][8] Group 3: Economic Indicators - In June 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6%, leading to an expanded PPI-CPI gap of -3.7% [7][14] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% in June, indicating a steady labor market [7] Group 4: Rare Earth Industry Insights - The rare earth industry maintains a strong global position, with strict mining and smelting quotas continuing into 2025, and the first batch of rare earth quotas for the year expected to remain stable or slightly increase [11][12] - Export controls have been upgraded, particularly for heavy rare earths, with a focus on high-end applications driving growth in the sector [11][12] - Opportunities exist for leading companies to receive policy support for mining, which may alleviate the current shortage of rare earth minerals [12][15] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor and regional leaders in the beverage sector, as the white liquor market is expected to recover with the expansion of domestic demand policies [8][9] - In the cosmetics sector, despite a slight year-on-year decline of 2.3% in June, the report highlights strong growth potential for quality domestic brands [9][15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the retail sales of consumer goods in June 2025 reached CNY 42,287 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which is below the consensus expectation of 5.56% [5][10] - The report indicates that the online retail sector is growing rapidly, while offline retail remains stable, with online sales increasing by 8.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [5][15] - The report emphasizes the impact of national subsidy policies on retail categories, with essential and discretionary goods showing continued growth [5][27] Summary by Sections Overall Retail Sales - In Q2 2025, retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with June showing a growth of 4.8%. The total retail sales for the first half of 2025 reached CNY 245,458 billion, marking a 5.0% increase [5][10] - Urban retail sales outpaced rural sales for four consecutive months, with urban sales in June at CNY 36,559 billion, growing by 4.8% year-on-year [12][10] By Category - Retail sales of goods outperformed the restaurant sector, with June's total for restaurant services at CNY 4,708 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while goods retail reached CNY 37,580 billion, growing by 5.3% [22][5] - The report notes that national subsidy policies are effectively driving growth in essential and discretionary categories, with June's year-on-year growth rates for essential and discretionary goods at 5.92% and 2.15%, respectively [27][29] Price Performance - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year in June 2025, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6%, leading to an expanded PPI-CPI gap of -3.7% [33][36] - Food prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with non-food prices showing a slight increase [35][36] Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% in June 2025, unchanged from the previous month [43][44] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the white liquor sector may see demand recovery due to expanding domestic demand policies, despite short-term weakness from a "ban on alcohol" [51] - It also recommends focusing on core leading companies in the cosmetics sector, which are expected to perform well due to strong domestic growth and increasing market share [51]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the solid global dominance of the rare earth industry, highlighting growth opportunities in high-end applications, particularly in sectors like new energy vehicles, wind power, and industrial robots [5][6][10] - The report outlines strict mining and smelting quotas in China, with the first batch of rare earth quotas for 2025 expected to remain stable or slightly increase, indicating no comprehensive relaxation of controls [5][6] - Export controls are tightening, particularly for heavy rare earths, which may lead to increased demand for domestic resources and support for leading companies in the industry [6][10] Group 2 - The report notes that the tightening of export controls on medium and heavy rare earths is expected to pressure downstream supply, with potential instability in imports from Myanmar [8] - It highlights the dual driving forces of new energy and high-end manufacturing, with a focus on increasing the export share of high-end permanent magnets while reducing low-value product exports [8][11] - The report suggests that leading companies may receive policy support for priority mining, which could alleviate the current shortage of rare earth resources [6][10] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of U.S. inflation data, indicating that the June 2025 CPI data aligns with expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7% and a core CPI of 2.9% [12][13] - It highlights that inflation is influenced by rising energy prices, tariff transmission, and expectations from new fiscal policies, which may lead to increased "stagflation" risks in the U.S. economy [13][16] - The report indicates that the core service inflation remains stable, primarily affected by the housing market, while other core services like medical and transportation show moderate increases [15][16] Group 4 - The report provides insights into the A-share market, noting a slight decline in the Shanghai Composite Index, with a closing value of 3503 points, indicating a mixed market performance [20][21] - It mentions that the chemical pharmaceutical sector showed the highest increase among industry sectors, while energy metals and steel sectors faced declines [22][23] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring key support levels in the index, particularly the 10-day moving average, to gauge short-term market trends [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the rare earth industry, highlighting the strategic importance and growth potential of high-end applications [99]. Core Insights - China holds a dominant position in the global rare earth market, with approximately 49% of the world's total rare earth oxide reserves and a production share of about 69% as of 2024 [8][12][13]. - The report emphasizes the shift towards high-value applications in the rare earth sector, particularly in new materials and advanced manufacturing, driven by government policies supporting innovation and sustainability [70][72]. - The integration of the rare earth supply chain in China, characterized by strong processing capabilities and economies of scale, creates significant barriers to entry for foreign competitors [45][49][52]. Summary by Sections Rare Earth Resource Development and Smelting - China's rare earth resources are abundant, with a production capacity that significantly exceeds domestic demand, leading to a low import requirement [9][12]. - The report outlines the mining and smelting processes, noting the advanced techniques employed in China that enhance recovery rates and reduce environmental impact [53][54]. Rare Earth Integration Industry Barriers - The report highlights the competitive advantages of China's rare earth industry, including technological leadership in separation processes and a well-established industrial cluster [49][52]. - China's rare earth processing capacity accounts for over 90% of global demand, underscoring its critical role in the supply chain [43][49]. Downstream Demand Growth and Policies - The demand for rare earth elements is expected to grow, particularly in high-tech applications such as electric vehicles, wind energy, and industrial robotics [86][91]. - Recent policy changes, including stricter export controls and a focus on high-end applications, are likely to reshape the market dynamics and enhance the value of domestic production [57][59][100]. Conclusion and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on upstream resource companies and deep processing enterprises as potential investment hotspots, given the expected increase in global demand and the strategic importance of rare earths [99][100]. - Companies with strong export capabilities and those involved in high-value manufacturing are positioned to benefit from the evolving market landscape [99][100].