Core Insights - The report emphasizes the stable pricing of photovoltaic silicon wafers and the steady progress in offshore wind construction, indicating a positive outlook for the renewable energy sector [2][6][74] - The report suggests that various segments of the power industry exhibit strong growth potential and stability, with a reshaping of the valuation system driven by electricity policies and supply-demand dynamics [5][40] Summary by Sections Power Industry Overview - The power industry is expected to benefit from high temperatures in summer, leading to increased cash flow and profitability for hydropower leaders such as Changjiang Power, Guikang Power, and Huaneng Hydropower [5] - Pumped storage leaders like South Grid Storage are anticipated to gain from policy support, with stable profitability and increasing installed capacity [5] - Nuclear power leaders such as China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are positioned to benefit from a redefined status and increasing installed capacity, supported by high barriers in cost and technology [5] - Thermal power leaders like Huadian International and Huaneng International are expected to benefit from declining coal prices and stable profitability from capacity trading [5] - Green power leaders such as Three Gorges Energy and Longyuan Power are likely to benefit from electricity reforms [5] Photovoltaic Sector - The report notes that silicon material prices remain stable, with domestic production expected to maintain around 150,000 tons in July, while downstream demand shows no significant improvement [59] - The report highlights that the production of silicon wafers is projected to be around 50.6 GW in July, with a slight decrease from June due to reduced operating rates among several companies [25][59] Wind Power Sector - The report indicates that the bidding and opening scale for onshore wind power continues to grow, supporting the annual new installed capacity, with significant projects being approved in various provinces [26] - The average bidding price for onshore wind turbines has shown signs of recovery, indicating a positive trend in the wind power sector [61] Nuclear Power Insights - The report discusses the global shift in nuclear power policies, suggesting a potential for continued revaluation of the sector, with domestic nuclear power expected to increase its share of total electricity generation from 4.6% in 2023 to 7% and 10% by 2030 and 2035, respectively [23] Hydropower Insights - The report highlights the defensive nature of hydropower, with high cash flow and dividend ratios, and anticipates improved performance due to favorable weather conditions this summer [57] Green Power Insights - The report notes that the decline in component and storage costs is expected to ease installation costs, while the launch of the green certificate trading system is anticipated to enhance the valuation of green power [73]

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月16日 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王敏君 S0630522040002 wmj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 梁帅奇 S0630524070001 lsqi@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -40% -31% -22% -14% -5% 4% 13% 23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04 申万行业指数:机械设备(0764) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.6月挖机内销增速优于市场预期, 工程机械景气度持续边际改善—— 机械设备行业简评 [table_invest] 超配 [Table_NewTitle 重点品类内外销数据改善,关注工程机 ] 械升级、出海进程 ——机械设备行业周报(20240708-20240714) [table_main] 投资要点: ➢ 挖掘机内销数据再超CME预期,外销降幅收窄,景气度持续边际改善。据中国工程机械 工业协会统计,2024年6月主要企业销售各类挖掘机16603台,同比增长5.3%。其中, ...

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月16日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 吴骏燕 S0630517120001 wjyan@longone.com.cn ➢ 2.电车新品加速迭代，半年度销量数据亮眼——电池及储能行业周报（20240708- 20240714） ➢ 2.央行平价续作MLF。 2. 财经新闻 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 晨会纪要 证券分析师：胡少华，执业证书编号：S0630516090002；证券分析师：刘思佳，执业 证书编号：S0630516080002 多数可选消费品增速下滑。从去年 6 月零售额绝对数看，服装鞋帽纺织品、化妆品、体 育娱乐用品、通讯器材零售额基数较前值有不同程度抬升，今年 6 月对应消费品增速均出现 下滑；金银珠宝基数平稳，6 月同比降幅收窄。地产竣工端，家电和音像器材类消费增速较 前值大幅回落 20.5 个百分点至-7.6%，或有基数抬升的原因；建筑及装潢材料类消费（-4.4%） 与前值基本持平，与之一致的是 6 月住宅竣工面积增速（-21.7%）并未有明显改善。 [Table_Report] [晨会纪要 Tab ...

Economic Overview - In Q2 2024, China's GDP grew by 4.7% year-on-year, below the market expectation of 5.1% and down from 5.3% in Q1[10] - The actual GDP growth for the first half of 2024 was 5.0%[5] Consumption Trends - In June 2024, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 2.0%, down from 3.7% in May and below the expected 4.0%[10] - The three-year compound growth rate for June was 2.7%, lower than May's 3.2%[36] - Restaurant income in June increased by 5.4% year-on-year, slightly up from 5.0% in May, while retail sales of goods fell to 1.5%[37] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment in June showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.9%, consistent with the previous month's 4.0%[10] - Manufacturing investment remained strong with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.5% in June, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[19] Real Estate Sector - Real estate development investment in June had a cumulative year-on-year decline of 10.1%, unchanged from the previous month[19] - The sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities increased by 23.6% month-on-month, indicating a slight recovery in the real estate market[19] Industrial Production - In June, the industrial added value grew by 5.3% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 5.0% but down from 5.6% in May[10] - The service sector maintained stability with a production index growth of 4.7% in June, compared to 4.8% in May[5] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include international geopolitical tensions, overseas financial events, and domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations[5]

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月15日 行 业 周 报 [Table_Authors] 证券分析师 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 联系人 蔡望颋 cwt@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] [table_product] 相关研究 1.兆易创新(603986.SH): 利基存储价格有望继续回暖, 增资长鑫产能或有保障——公 司简评报告 1. 新《措施》助力打造电子产品消 费新场景,2024Q3存储合约价季涨 幅环比收敛(20240624- 20240630) 2. HarmonyOS NEXT、盘古大模型 5.0亮相,尽显华为系统级AI生态建 设——电子行业周报(20240617- 20240623) 3. 《指南》落实AI产业标准化方 向,WAIC 2024共商AI领域向善治 理(20240701-20240707) [table_main] 投资要点: ➢ 电子板块观点:IoT板块头部企业2024H1业绩预告相继发布,行业营收利润均实现同比 高增,关注消费类IoT产品出海。台积电6月营收 ...

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月15日 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王珏人 S0630523100001 wjr@longone.com.cn 联系人 付天赋 ftfu@longone.com.cn 电 力 设 备 与 新 能 源 [table_stockTrend] -51% -40% -29% -18% -7% 4% 15% 23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04 申万行业指数:电力设备(0763) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.成长性+稳健性兼备,电力改革助 推行业优势持续 ——电力行业深度 报告系列一 2.风光新增装机继续上升,硅片试探 性涨价 ——新能源电力行业周报 (2024/06/24-2024/06/28) 3.虚拟电厂调峰落地,构网型储能热 度提升——电池及储能行业周报 (20240624-20240630) [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle 光伏硅片]价 ...

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月15日 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 联系人 吴康辉 wkh@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈涛 cht@longone.com.cn -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 23/07 23/10 24/01 24/04 24/07 食品饮料(申万) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.白酒板块信心提振,新品助力市场 拓 展 — — 食 品 饮 料 行 业 周 报 (2024/7/1-2024/7/5) 2.头部酒企批价企稳,股东会战略坚 定 — — 食 品 饮 料 行 业 周 报 (2024.6.24-2024.6.30) 3.飞天批价底部震荡,啤酒旺季需求 催 化 — — 食 品 饮 料 行 业 周 报 (2024/6/17-2024/6/23) [table_invest] 超配 [Table_NewTitle 板块逐步企稳,关注业绩预告向好标的 ] ——食品饮 ...

行 业 研 究 2024年07月15日 行 业 周 报 证券分析师 杜永宏 S0630522040001 dyh@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 伍可心 S0630522120001 wkx@longone.com.cn 联系人 付婷 futing@longone.com.cn 相关研究 1.政策落地,利好创新药长期发 展 — — 医药生物行业周报 (20240701-20240707) 2.医保目录调整启动,精选优质 个股— —医药生物行业周报 (20240624-20240630) 3.关注Q2业绩表现,精选优质 个股— —医药生物行业周报 (20240617-20240623) 超配 关注业绩边际变化趋势,布局个股机会 ——医药生物行业周报(2024/07/08-2024/07/14) 投资要点: 市场表现: 上周(7月8日至7月12日)医药生物板块整体下跌0.08%,在申万31个行业中排第20 位,跑输沪深300指数1.28个百分点。年初至今,医药生物板块整体下跌21.07%,在申万 31个行业中排第25位,跑输沪深300指数22.27个百分点。当前,医药生物板块PE估值为 24.0倍,处于 ...

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月15日 [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle 电车新品加速迭代, ] 半年度销量数据亮 眼 ——电池及储能行业周报(2024/07/08-2024/07/14) [table_main] 投资要点: ➢ 市场表现:本周(7/8-7/14)申万电池板块整体上涨2.12%,跑赢沪深300指数0.92个百分 点。主力净流入前五为阳光电源、宁德时代、锦浪科技、固德威、禾迈股份;净流出前五 为德赛电池、金盘科技、许继电气、国电南瑞、南都电源。 ➢ 电池板块 (1)2024H1电车销量表现优异,行业需求向好。中汽协:2024年6月国内新能源车销量 104.9万辆,同/环比+30%/+10%,2024H1新能源车销量约494.4万辆,同比+32%。目前 在油电不同税和权的背景下,两极分化逐步加剧,加之地方补贴持续,5-6月消费者购车潜 力释放,上半年整体销量好于预期。各车企新能源新产品迭代迅速,对市场销量构成有力 支撑,预计2024年全年新能源汽车销量达1150万辆,同比+20.0%。 (2)行业供给端有序调整,价格趋稳。1 ...

总 量 研 究 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 李沛 S0630520070001 lp@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn ➢ 风险提示：美联储降息落地节奏不及预期、海外银行业危机蔓延、国际地缘摩擦超预期。 4. 外汇市场 3. 商品市场 FICC研究 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 主要资产周度表现: 4/15 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 5/15 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 5 LME PMI 6 CME FedWatch | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...