[晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250630 重点推荐 财经要闻 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月30日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人： 李嘉豪 lijiah@longone.com.cn 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.商品周期与工业企业利润——资产配置周报（2025/06/23-2025/06/27） ➢ 2.寒武纪（688256）:云边端共铸国产算力脊梁，软硬件同迎寒武破晓时代——公司深度 报告 ➢ 3.关税影响显现，营收利润率拖累明显——国内观察：2025年5月工业企业利润数据 ➢ 4.1-5月外销表现优于内销，重视具身智能率先落地物流场景机遇——机械设备行业简评 ➢ 1.中国人民银行货币政策委员会召开2025年第二季度例会 ➢ 2.李强主 ...

Group 1 - The total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China from January to May 2025 was 27,204.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, with a significant drop of 9.1% in May alone [9][10]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in May showed a year-on-year decline of 3.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.4%, indicating a strong correlation between industrial profit growth and PPI [9][10]. - The historical average of commodity price cycles has shown 14 turning points over the past 55 years, suggesting a shift in the frequency and asymmetry of price behaviors since 2020 [9][10]. Group 2 - In the domestic equity market, the average daily trading volume reached 14,543 billion yuan, up from the previous value of 11,875 billion yuan, indicating increased market activity [19]. - Among the 28 industries tracked, the computer industry saw the highest increase at 7.70%, followed by defense and military at 6.90% and non-bank financials at 6.66% [19]. - The oil and petrochemical industry experienced a decline of 2.07%, while food and beverage and transportation sectors also saw slight decreases [19]. Group 3 - The short-term interest rates are expected to remain low due to reduced liquidity pressure, with the weighted average of DR001 stabilizing at 1.37% [21][22]. - The yield on 10-year Chinese government bonds fluctuated, closing at 1.6462%, reflecting a mixed response to market conditions [22][23]. - The U.S. Treasury yields generally declined, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.29%, influenced by dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials [25]. Group 4 - The WTI crude oil price fell by 11.3% to $65.52 per barrel, with U.S. crude oil production reported at 13.435 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 235,000 barrels [27]. - The gold price decreased by 2.80% to $3,237.34 per ounce, driven by easing geopolitical tensions and a stronger dollar [47]. - The copper market is under pressure, with ongoing fluctuations in demand and supply dynamics affecting pricing [29].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company is a rare domestic AI chip manufacturer that provides integrated cloud-edge-end solutions, focusing on both hardware and software to support complex AI applications across various industries. The company has seen significant revenue growth and profitability due to strong domestic demand for AI chips and its leading technology [6][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic AI Chip Market - The company is positioned as a scarce player in the domestic AI chip market, offering a series of intelligent AI chip products and platform software that integrate cloud, edge, and end solutions. Its products are widely used in sectors such as internet, finance, transportation, energy, and manufacturing [14][18]. 2. Revenue Growth and Profitability - The company has experienced a substantial increase in revenue, with a 4230.22% year-on-year growth in Q1 2025, and has turned profitable with a net profit of 3.55 billion yuan, reflecting a 256.82% increase [6][29]. The cloud product line has significantly contributed to this growth, accounting for 99.30% of total revenue in 2024, up from 12.77% in 2023 [21]. 3. Market Dynamics - The demand for AI chips is expected to grow significantly, with the global AI chip market projected to reach $92 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 29.58%. The domestic market is anticipated to reach 141.2 billion yuan in 2024, representing about 28% of the global market [6][29]. 4. Hardware and Software Integration - The company’s cloud AI chips are the main revenue drivers, with the MLU370-X8 single card performance comparable to mainstream 350W RTX GPUs. The software platform, Cambricon Neuware, supports major AI models, enhancing the company's competitive edge [6][29]. 5. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 84.43 billion yuan, 161.71 billion yuan, and 251.05 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 618.91%, 91.52%, and 55.25%. Net profits are projected to be 15.95 billion yuan, 38.60 billion yuan, and 69.13 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 452.69%, 141.96%, and 79.09% respectively [6][8]. 6. Competitive Landscape - Despite the dominance of foreign chip leaders, domestic brands like the company are rapidly increasing their market share, expected to reach 40% by 2025. The company benefits from its technological advantages and strong domestic demand for AI chip replacements [6][29]. 7. Management and Structure - The company has a stable ownership structure, with the founder holding 35.97% of the voting rights. The management team is experienced, with a significant portion holding advanced degrees in relevant fields [24][27].

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月27日 超配 行 业 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 商俭 S0630525060002 shangjian@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -25% -11% 2% 15% 29% 42% 56% 24-06 24-09 24-12 25-03 申万行业指数:机械设备(0764) 沪深300 [1.table_product] 人形机器人推动丝杠需求，国内厂 商突破量产壁垒——机械设备行业 深度报告 1.人形机器人推动丝杠需求，国内厂 商突破量产壁垒——机械设备行业 深度报告 [Table_NewTitle] 1-5月外销表现优于内销，重视具身智能 率先落地物流场景机遇 ——机械设备行业简评 [table_main] 投资要点： 机 械 设 备 [table_invest] ➢ 事件：根据中国工程机械工业协会发布数据，2025年5月叉车整体销量为12.35万台，同比 增长11.8%。其中，国内销量7.91万台，同比增长9.25%；海外销量4.43万台，同比增长 16.6%。2025年1-5月叉车累计 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月27日 wangyang@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250627 [table_summary] 重点推荐 财经要闻 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 ➢ 1.美国公布2025年一季度GDP终值 ➢ 2.发改委：第三批消费品以旧换新资金将于7月下达 ➢ 3.金融监管总局联合央行印发《银行业保险业普惠金融高质量发展实施方案》 | 1.1. 杜绝"内卷式分红"，建立分红水平动态管理机制——保险业态观察（五）3 | | | --- | --- | | 1.2. 稳定币叠加政策催化推升券商板块行情，继续关注相关主题配置机遇——资 | | | 本市场聚焦（六） | ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月26日 超配 行 业 简 评 非 银 金 融 [Table_NewTitle 杜绝"内卷式分红"， ] 建立分红水平动态 管理机制 ——保险业态观察（五） （五） 3.证券公司分类评价规定迎修订，分 红险监管进一步增强——非银金融 行业周报（20250616-20250622） 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 研 究 [table_invest] [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 陶圣禹 S0630523100002 tsy@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] [table_main] 投资要点： [相关研究 table_product] 1.稳定币叠加政策催化推升券商板 块行情，继续关注相关主题配置机遇 ——资本市场聚焦（六） 2.优化券商分类评价体系，鼓励业务 细耕与效率提升——资本市场聚焦 二、分析师声明： 本报告署名分析师具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格并注册为证券分析师，具备专业胜任能力，保证以专业严谨的研究方法和 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The securities sector has seen a significant increase, with the Securities II (Shenwan) index rising by 5.55% as of June 25, 2025, driven by strong performances from companies like Dongfang Caifu, Guosheng Jinkong, and Tianfeng Securities, which hit the daily limit [5][6] - The approval of Guotai Junan International to provide virtual asset trading services marks it as the first Chinese securities firm to offer comprehensive virtual asset services, aligning with the current market interest in stablecoin themes [6][20] - The ongoing capital market reforms and the recent "1+6" measures announced at the Lujiazui Forum are expected to enhance market activity, with a trading volume of 1.5 trillion yuan laying a foundation for the growth of securities firms [6][8] Group 2: Company Focus - Hengxuan Technology (688608) - Hengxuan Technology specializes in the research, design, and sales of low-power wireless computing SoC chips, achieving a significant milestone with its products now utilizing 6nm process technology, aiming to become a leading player in the domestic Bluetooth audio SoC market [11][12] - The company has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.43% in revenue from 2020 to 2024, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 999.5 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.25% [11][12] - Hengxuan Technology's chips are widely used in smart wearable and smart home devices, with a strong focus on high-performance brand clients, which has created a competitive advantage and customer loyalty [12][13] Group 3: Growth Potential and Market Trends - The global TWS (True Wireless Stereo) earphone market is projected to reach 330 million units in 2024, with Hengxuan Technology holding a 16.22% market share in the first half of 2024, indicating a strong competitive position [12][13] - The wearable device market is expected to see significant growth, with global shipments projected to reach 193 million units in 2024, and Hengxuan Technology is well-positioned to benefit from this trend by deepening partnerships with major Android brand clients [13][14] - The smart speaker market is anticipated to stabilize and grow, with Hengxuan Technology's chips supporting voice interaction and low power consumption, further enhancing its market presence [14] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report initiates coverage on Hengxuan Technology with a "Buy" rating, forecasting revenues of 4.69 billion yuan, 6.18 billion yuan, and 7.87 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding net profits of 839 million yuan, 1.15 billion yuan, and 1.54 billion yuan [16] - The company is expected to continue expanding its product offerings in AI headphones, smartwatches, smart bands, and smart glasses, which will further enhance its growth potential [16]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the optimization of the securities company classification evaluation system to encourage business refinement and efficiency improvement, aligning with the regulatory framework to enhance resource allocation [6][7][8] - The revision aims to support differentiated and specialized development for small and medium-sized institutions by reducing redundant scoring and enhancing operational efficiency metrics [7][8] - New special indicators have been introduced to guide securities companies in optimizing their investment structures and improving service capabilities for the real economy and investors [7][8] Group 2 - The food and beverage sector showed a slight decline of 0.12% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.33 percentage points, with beer stocks performing relatively well [11][12] - The white liquor index rebounded as regulatory corrections improved market sentiment, with major companies implementing refined strategies to adapt to market demands [12][14] - The beer industry is expected to recover as the peak consumption season approaches, supported by improving terminal sales and favorable consumption policies [13][14] Group 3 - The report highlights the growing demand for planetary roller screws driven by humanoid robots, with domestic manufacturers overcoming mass production barriers [15][16] - The global market for planetary roller screws was valued at $1.27 billion in 2022, indicating significant growth potential as humanoid robot production accelerates [15][16] - Domestic companies are seizing opportunities in the planetary roller screw market as European manufacturers lag in expansion, creating a favorable environment for local firms [16][17] Group 4 - The energy metals sector is showing positive short-term technical conditions, having broken through multiple key resistance levels, indicating a potential upward trend [19][20][21] - The index has formed a "head and shoulders" bottom pattern, suggesting a solid foundation for future growth, with significant upward potential if it breaks through the neckline resistance [21]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the planetary roller screw industry, particularly driven by the increasing demand from humanoid robots and the potential for domestic manufacturers to capture market share from established European firms [3][59]. Core Insights - Planetary roller screws are gaining traction in various industries due to their compact size, high efficiency, and durability, making them a preferred choice in automotive, engineering machinery, machine tools, robotics, medical devices, and oil and gas sectors [3][10]. - The humanoid robot market is expected to significantly boost the demand for planetary roller screws, with projections indicating a need for 14 million units by 2029, translating to a market expansion of 11.2 billion yuan [3][52]. - European manufacturers currently dominate the high-end market for planetary roller screws, but domestic companies are accelerating their development and production capabilities, creating opportunities for market entry [3][59]. Summary by Sections 1. Barriers to Entry in Planetary Roller Screw Production - The production of planetary roller screws involves high barriers due to the need for specialized materials, mature processes, and advanced grinding equipment, resulting in high manufacturing costs and challenges in scaling production [3][18][23]. 2. Acceleration of Humanoid Robot Production - The report highlights the rapid development of humanoid robots, with major companies announcing mass production plans, which will drive the demand for planetary roller screws significantly [3][27][39]. 3. European Manufacturers Lead the High-End Market - In 2022, the top four manufacturers in the planetary roller screw market in China were Rollvis (Switzerland), GSA (Switzerland), Rexroth (Germany), and Ewellix (Sweden), with market shares of 27%, 26%, 13%, and 12% respectively [3][59]. 4. Investment Opportunities in Domestic Manufacturers - The report recommends focusing on domestic companies that have secured key clients, possess high-end processing equipment, and emphasize R&D innovation, such as Hengli Hydraulic, Wuzhou New Spring, Best, Beite Technology, Shuanglin Co., Qinchuan Machine Tool, and Huachen Equipment [3][59].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more in the next six months [14]. Core Insights - The report highlights the revision of the "Securities Company Classification Evaluation Regulations" aimed at optimizing resource allocation and enhancing the operational efficiency of securities firms. This revision is based on previous regulations and emphasizes the importance of service to the real economy and national strategies [7][8]. - The report suggests that the future specifics of high-quality development will be a major driving force for the long-term growth of the capital market, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions, high "financial inclusion rate," and improvements in ROE as key investment themes [8]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has solicited opinions on the draft revision of the "Securities Company Classification Evaluation Regulations," which aims to enhance the evaluation framework and promote the functional role of securities companies [7]. - The revision includes the integration and optimization of business development indicators, supporting differentiated and specialized development for small and medium-sized institutions [7]. Business Development Indicators - The report outlines changes in scoring for business development, including the cancellation of revenue ranking bonuses to reduce redundancy and an increase in the emphasis on ROE to guide firms towards efficient development [7][12]. - New specialized indicators have been added to align with regulatory goals, such as promoting long-term capital market participation and wealth management services [7]. Risk Management and Compliance - The revised regulations introduce stricter penalties for major violations, allowing for direct downgrades to D class for companies with significant legal infractions, thereby encouraging proactive error correction and risk management [7][9]. - Adjustments in scoring for self-regulatory organization penalties have been made to enhance the deterrent effect of disciplinary actions [10]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on large securities firms with strong capital and stable operations as potential investment opportunities, particularly in the context of the anticipated regulatory changes and market dynamics [8].