晨 会 纪 要 2024年09月23日 晨会纪要20240923 证券分析师： 伍可心 S0630522120001 wkx@longone.com.cn 重点推荐 1.R22配额削减，三代制冷剂配额政策延续，看好制冷剂景气向上——基础化工行业简评 2.上证指数短线或有反弹需求——技术分析上证指数简评 财经要闻 1.中国9月1年期、5年期LPR保持不变 2.北京市：优化房地产政策 适时取消普通住宅和非普通住宅标准 3.财政部公布1-8月财政收支情况 4.日本央行暂停加息 利率维持不变 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | 正文目录 | | | | | | 1. 重点推荐. 1.1. R22 配额削减，三代 ...

总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月20日 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@email.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点 [上证指数 Table_NewTitle]短线或有反弹需求 ——技术分析上证指数简评 ➢ 核心观点：上证指数短线或有反弹需求。上证指数目前处于前期低点2635点支撑位附近， 短线支撑较为有力。日线、周线连日超跌后，指数于2024年9月19日携量上破5日均线，大 单资金有介入迹象，说明做多力量活跃，指数短线或有反弹动能。但指数日线趋势向下尚 未扭转，短线均线尚未多头排列，彻底扭转向下的趋势，短时间内较难完成。指数短线或 有反弹动能，但目前并不强势，上方均线压力重重，与企稳仍有差距。指数若运行到上方 各重要均线压力位附近，仍需谨慎观察。 [相关研究 Table_Report] 1. 《波浪里前行 上证指数目前或处 于黎明的曙光中——运用波浪理论 对上证综指技术分析》 2. 《上证指数或酝酿反弹动能—— 技术分析上证指数系列》 ➢ 上证指数本波段已经有一定的跌幅， ...

行 业 研 究 基 础 化 工 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月19日 行 业 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 张晶磊 S0630524090001 zjlei@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 吴骏燕 S0630517120001 wjyan@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 马小萱 mxxuan@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -35% -28% -21% -14% -7% 0% 7% 23-09 23-12 24-03 24-06 24-09 申万行业指数:基础化工(0722) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.R32剩余配额分配，制冷剂长期景 气仍将持续——氟化工行业月报 2.原材料价格回调，需求保持稳定— —轮胎行业月报（2024年7月） 3.巨化股份（600160）：制冷剂价格 上行，公司业绩有望持续提升——公 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Bullish" with expectations that the CSI 300 index will rise by 20% or more in the next six months [9]. Core Insights - Domestic tourism continues to show stable growth, with 107 million domestic travelers during the Mid-Autumn Festival, a 6.3% increase compared to 2019. Domestic tourism revenue reached 51.047 billion yuan, an 8.0% increase from 2019 [6]. - The transportation sector saw significant activity, with over 620 million cross-regional movements during the holiday, averaging 21 million daily, a 31.1% increase from 2023 and a 16.1% increase from 2019 [6]. - The popularity of domestic cultural tourism is rising, driven by the success of the game "Black Myth: Wukong," with car rental orders in Shanxi province increasing by 16% compared to the Dragon Boat Festival [6]. - The film industry also performed well, with a box office of 389 million yuan during the Mid-Autumn Festival, with domestic films accounting for 85.35% of the total [6]. Summary by Sections Tourism Data - The Mid-Autumn Festival saw 107 million domestic travelers, with tourism revenue at 51.047 billion yuan, reflecting stable growth despite adverse weather conditions [6]. - Transportation data indicates a robust increase in travel, with rail and road travel showing significant year-on-year growth [6]. OTA Insights - Domestic cultural tourism is gaining traction, with a notable increase in travel orders in specific regions [6]. - The trend towards short trips is evident, with 76% of users opting for 2-3 day itineraries during the holiday [6]. Future Outlook - The upcoming National Day holiday is expected to see a surge in outbound and long-distance travel, with a 70% increase in visa applications compared to last year [7]. - Predictions indicate a potential decrease in travel costs due to high demand and competitive pricing, with over 60% of travelers planning long-distance trips [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from the upcoming holiday, particularly OTA and scenic spots, as the industry outlook remains positive [7].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a target range of 4.75% to 5.0%[2] - The rate cut exceeded market expectations, but Chairman Powell's comments on future rate cuts led to asset price volatility[2] - The dot plot indicates potential rate cuts of 25 basis points in November and December, with a total of 100 basis points in 2025, subject to uncertainty due to the U.S. election[2][3] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The unemployment rate forecasts for 2024-2026 were raised to 4.4%, 4.4%, and 4.3%, up from previous estimates of 2.8%, 2.3%, and 2.0%[3] - Core PCE inflation expectations for 2024 and 2025 were lowered to 2.6% and 2.2%, down from 2.8% and 2.3%[3] - The GDP growth forecast for 2024 was reduced to 2.0%, down from 2.1%[3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Risks - Asset prices showed significant volatility following the FOMC meeting, with shifts in equities, the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and gold[3] - There are risks of underpricing recession expectations and ignoring potential core inflation rebounds, particularly if unemployment triggers the Sam Rule[3] - Key risks include inflation uncertainty, global economic and geopolitical risks, and dollar liquidity risks[3]

Group 1: Key Recommendations - In August, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.1% year-on-year, with a total of 38,726 billion yuan, which was below the consensus expectation of 2.7% [6][7] - The sales growth in rural areas outpaced urban areas, with rural retail sales growing by 3.9% compared to 1.8% in urban areas [6][7] - Online consumption maintained rapid growth, with online retail sales of goods and services increasing by 8.9% and 8.1% year-on-year, respectively [6][7] Group 2: Electric Vehicle Industry - In August, domestic new energy vehicle sales reached 1.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of 30% and a month-on-month increase of 11% [11] - The export of new energy vehicles was 110,000 units in August, maintaining a high growth trend [11] - The overall market for new energy vehicles is expected to reach 11.5 million units in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% [11] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical and biological sector saw a decline of 2.55% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.32 percentage points [14] - The sector's PE valuation is currently at 22.2 times, which is at a historical low [14] - Recent policy changes, such as the expansion of cross-provincial direct settlement for outpatient chronic diseases, are expected to benefit related companies and patients [15][16] Group 4: Automotive Industry - The automotive sector experienced a decline of 1.44%, with the overall market showing signs of recovery due to the "old-for-new" policy and the upcoming peak sales season [18][19] - In August, the retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.027 million units, a year-on-year increase of 43% [19] - Domestic brands captured 63.4% of the market share, with significant growth from companies like BYD, Chery, and Geely [19] Group 5: Renewable Energy Industry - The silicon material prices remain stable, while the prices of battery components are under pressure [22] - The wind power sector is seeing an increase in bidding and project initiation, indicating a stable market environment [23][24] - Companies like Daikin Heavy Industries and Oriental Cable are well-positioned to benefit from the growth in offshore wind projects [24]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Neutral" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [39]. Core Insights - In August 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,726 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.1%, which is below the consensus expectation of 2.7% [7][11]. - The consumption market continues to show stable growth, with both urban and rural markets maintaining growth, and online consumption sustaining rapid growth [7][11]. - Urban retail sales amounted to 33,575 billion yuan, growing by 1.8% year-on-year, while rural retail sales reached 5,151 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.9%, surpassing urban growth by 2.1 percentage points [11][12]. - Online consumption outperformed offline consumption, with online retail sales of goods and services growing by 8.9% and 8.1% year-on-year, respectively [11][12]. Summary by Sections Overall Retail Sales - The retail sales in August 2024 showed a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, with total sales at 38,726 billion yuan, which is lower than the expected growth of 2.7% [7][11]. Category Performance - Both dining and retail sales increased year-on-year, with dining services totaling 4,351 billion yuan, up 3.3%, and retail sales of goods at 34,375 billion yuan, up 1.9% [15][21]. - Essential and other categories showed steady growth, while discretionary consumption confidence remained weak, particularly in real estate-related spending [17][21]. Price Performance - In August 2024, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.6% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 1.8% [23][29]. - Food prices saw significant increases, with fresh vegetables and fruits rising by 21.8% and 4.1% year-on-year, respectively [23][29]. Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate in August 2024 was 5.3%, a slight increase from the previous month [31][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor and regional leaders in the liquor industry due to increased competition and pressure on demand [37]. - In the cosmetics sector, companies like Proya and Juzhibio are highlighted as strong performers, suggesting a focus on these alpha stocks [37].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the automotive industry Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with the overall market showing a decline of 1.44% this week, while the broader market (CSI 300) fell by 2.23% [7][14] - The introduction of the "old-for-new" policy and the upcoming peak sales season (September and October) are expected to boost passenger vehicle consumption [12][28] - Significant growth in the market share of domestic brands, with BYD's DM5.0 model performing well and companies like Chery and Geely benefiting from the electrification transition [12][28] - New energy vehicle (NEV) sales have surpassed 1 million units in a month, with hybrid models driving growth [8][13] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The automotive sector's performance this week shows a decline, with specific segments like passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles experiencing varied changes [7][14] - The "old-for-new" policy has led to an increase in registrations and subsidy applications, indicating a potential recovery in passenger vehicle sales [12][28] - Domestic brands have captured a significant market share, with BYD, Chery, and Geely showing notable sales growth [12][28] Market Performance - The automotive sector's overall decline of 1.44% places it 11th among 31 industries, with specific segments like passenger cars and commercial vehicles showing different performance metrics [7][14] - NEV sales reached 1.027 million units in August, marking a year-on-year increase of 43% [8][13] Sales Data Tracking - August retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles were 1.905 million units, down 1% year-on-year but up 11% month-on-month [12][25] - NEV retail sales in August reached 1.027 million units, with a penetration rate of 53.9% [8][13] - The report highlights the performance of major manufacturers, with BYD, Geely, and Chery showing significant sales increases [28] Inventory and Material Prices - The comprehensive inventory coefficient for automotive dealers was reported at 1.16, indicating a decrease in inventory levels [35] - The report includes tracking of raw material prices, which are crucial for production costs in the automotive sector [37] New Model Tracking - The report lists new models launched, including significant entries from Geely and BYD, indicating ongoing innovation in the market [42][43]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the battery and energy storage sectors, with a focus on key players like Ningde Times and Shangneng Electric [6][7][8]. Core Insights - The battery sector experienced a 2.17% decline in the week of September 9-15, 2024, but outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.06 percentage points. Major inflows were seen in stocks like Ningde Times and Nord [6][20]. - In August, domestic new energy vehicle sales reached 1.1 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 30% and a month-on-month increase of 11%. The overall penetration rate for passenger vehicles was approximately 54.4% [7][13]. - The energy storage sector saw a total of 16 new bidding projects and 10 winning projects, with a total scale of 1.44 GW/3.60 GWh for bidding and 0.75 GW/1.85 GWh for winning projects [8][16]. Summary by Sections Battery Sector - **Sales Growth**: In August, new energy vehicle sales were 1.1 million units, with exports reaching 110,000 units, reflecting a 6% month-on-month increase. The forecast for 2024 anticipates total sales of 11.5 million units, a 20% increase year-on-year [7][13]. - **Supply Chain Adjustments**: The supply side is adjusting with stable prices for lithium salts and other materials. The price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was reported at 70,000 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.45% [14][23]. - **Key Players**: Ningde Times is highlighted as a leading global player, with a conservative shipment forecast of 480 GWh for 2024 and an estimated profit of 46 billion yuan [15][19]. Energy Storage Sector - **Bidding and Winning Projects**: The energy storage market saw a total of 16 bidding projects with a scale of 0.69 GW/1.76 GWh and 10 winning projects totaling 0.75 GW/1.85 GWh. The average winning price for energy storage systems was 0.51 yuan/Wh, showing a slight decrease [8][16][32]. - **Operational Data**: In the first half of 2024, 10.37 GW/24.18 GWh of new electrochemical energy storage stations were added, representing a 40% year-on-year increase. The average utilization rate improved from 34% to 42% [17][18]. - **Key Players**: Shangneng Electric has established a full industry chain layout in energy storage, including upstream inverters and downstream power stations, and is leading in inverter shipments [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the photovoltaic and wind power equipment sectors, with specific stock recommendations highlighted for potential investment opportunities [8][19]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing price stabilization in silicon materials, while module prices remain under pressure due to inventory concerns and market dynamics [9][17]. - The wind power sector shows a steady bidding environment for onshore wind projects, with increasing tender sizes and stable pricing, indicating a resilient market [19][20]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaic Sector - Silicon material prices are stable, with major manufacturers maintaining a price of 42 yuan/kg, leading to a competitive market environment [9][17]. - Silicon wafer prices are also stable, but inventory levels have risen significantly, exceeding 5 billion pieces, which may impact future pricing strategies [9][17]. - Battery cell prices are declining, with production levels for various technologies reported, indicating a challenging market for specialized battery manufacturers [9][17]. - Module prices are under pressure, with new orders priced around 0.65-0.7 yuan/W, reflecting a cautious market outlook for Q4 [9][17]. - Recommended stocks include Dike Co., which leads in TOPCon materials with over 50% market share, indicating strong growth potential [10][18]. Wind Power Sector - Onshore wind project bidding has seen approximately 4451.85 MW tendered, with average bid prices stabilizing, suggesting a healthy competitive landscape [19][20]. - Offshore wind projects are gaining momentum, with recent tenders indicating a recovery in market sentiment and potential for accelerated development [20]. - Recommended stocks include Daikin Heavy Industries, which is positioned well in the offshore equipment sector, and Oriental Cable, which leads in high-end submarine cable technology [21][21]. Market Performance - The photovoltaic equipment sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.27 percentage points, while the wind power equipment sector also showed resilience [23]. - Key stocks in the photovoltaic sector that performed well include ST Zhongli, JinkoSolar, and Zhonglai Co., while the wind power sector saw gains in stocks like Zhenjiang Co. and Tongyu Heavy Industry [23]. Industry Data Tracking - The report includes detailed tracking of price movements in the photovoltaic and wind power sectors, providing insights into market trends and potential investment opportunities [30][34].