行 业 研 究 医 药 生 物 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月18日 行 业 周 报 [table_invest] 超配 [Table_NewTitle 医保目录与] 待遇持续优化，行业刚需凸显 ——医药生物行业周报（2024/09/09-2024/09/15） [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 市场表现： [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 杜永宏 S0630522040001 dyh@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 伍可心 S0630522120001 wkx@longone.com.cn 联系人 付婷 futing@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] [相关研究 table_product] 1.业绩风险释放，企稳回暖可期—— 医药生物行业2024年中报业绩综述 2.信邦制药（002390）：医疗服务短 期承压，中药饮片快速放量——公司 简评报告 3.华兰生物（002007）：血制品业务 稳健，Q2业绩增长良好——公司简 评报告 上周（9月9日至9月13日）医药生物板块整体下跌2.55%，在申万31个行业中排第20 位，跑 ...

Group 1: Economic Data and Policy Outlook - Economic data for August 2024 was below expectations, indicating significant internal demand pressure, while external constraints have somewhat eased. The need to boost internal demand has become more critical to meet annual growth targets [6][8] - Retail sales in August showed a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, down from 2.7% in the previous month, with service consumption outperforming goods consumption [6][7] - Fixed asset investment growth slightly declined to 3.4% year-on-year in August, with infrastructure investment showing a notable drop [6][7] Group 2: Sector Performance and Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment remains robust, supported by policies for equipment upgrades, although sectors like pharmaceuticals and automotive are experiencing declines [7][8] - Real estate continues to face challenges, with significant year-on-year declines in both development investment and sales area, despite some signs of recovery in construction metrics [7][8] - The industrial value-added growth for August was 4.5%, reflecting a slowdown from 5.1% in the previous month, with high-energy-consuming products showing negative growth [7][8] Group 3: Financial and Market Insights - The central bank's August financial data indicated a stable M2 growth of 6.3%, while new RMB loans decreased significantly, suggesting a tightening credit environment [12][13] - The A-share market has been experiencing a volume contraction, with major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index showing declines [10][14] - Recent government policies, including the launch of delayed retirement reforms and easing foreign investment restrictions, are expected to influence market dynamics positively [12][14]

Economic Data Overview - In August 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.1% year-on-year, down from 2.7% in the previous month[2] - Fixed asset investment (FAI) grew by 3.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous value of 3.6%[2] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises rose by 4.5% year-on-year, down from 5.1% in July[2] Consumer Behavior Insights - Service consumption outperformed goods consumption, with service retail sales growing by 6.9% year-on-year, compared to a 3.9% increase in goods retail sales[2] - The automotive sector saw a significant decline of 7.3%, likely due to price promotions, while home appliances rebounded with a growth of 3.4%[2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment showed a slight decline, with a month-on-month seasonally adjusted increase of only 0.16%, below the five-year average of 0.45%[2] - Manufacturing investment remained robust at 8.0%, although infrastructure investment dropped to 6.2%[3] Real Estate Market Challenges - Real estate development investment and sales area both experienced year-on-year declines exceeding 10%[3] - In August, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities fell by 19.62% year-on-year, indicating ongoing downward pressure despite a low base from the previous year[3] Industrial Production Dynamics - The industrial added value growth was impacted by high-energy-consuming products, which continued to show negative growth, while integrated circuits and smartphones saw increases of 17.8% and 8.9%, respectively[3] - Power generation increased by 5.75%, supporting the growth in public utility production[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy implementation falling short of expectations, continued downturn in the real estate sector, and risks of an economic recession in the United States[3]

Group 1: Domestic Demand and Economic Indicators - Domestic demand remains relatively insufficient, with CPI increases primarily driven by food prices, while PPI shows a significant decline, indicating weak demand, especially in black metal processing[9] - The acceleration in export growth and a decline in import growth reflect a mixed picture of internal and external demand, suggesting a need for further domestic demand expansion policies[9] - Recent data indicates that the effective demand is still lacking, necessitating an increase in total policy measures[2] Group 2: U.S. Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The probability of a 25bps rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is high, driven by disappointing non-farm employment data and declining inflation, with market expectations for a total of 100bps cuts this year possibly being overly optimistic[2][13] - The core CPI's unexpected rise indicates persistent core inflation, particularly in services and housing, which may influence the Fed's rate cut pace[13] - The upcoming U.S. presidential election could impact fiscal deficits and inflation, with both Democratic and Republican outcomes likely to affect the Fed's monetary policy trajectory[15] Group 3: A-Share Market Performance - A-shares have continued to adjust with reduced trading volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 4.86% and the ChiNext Index down 2.87% over the past ten trading days[17] - The recent policy changes, including the reduction of foreign investment restrictions in the manufacturing sector, may provide long-term benefits to the capital market[17][24] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from new regulatory measures aimed at enhancing risk management and promoting high-quality development[24][27]

行 业 研 机 械 设 备 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月13日 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王敏君 S0630522040002 wmj@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -34% -27% -20% -14% -7% 0% 7% 23-09 23-12 24-03 24-06 申万行业指数:机械设备(0764) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.国茂股份（603915）：需求有待企 稳，经营性回款改善——公司简评报 告 [table_invest] 超配 [Table_NewTitle 自动化设备下游有待企稳，寻找结构性 ] ——机械设备行业周报（20240909-20240913） 机会 [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 短期看，自动化设备内需市场整体增速放缓。按照申万行业分类，自动化设备为机械设备 下属二级行业，机器人、工控设备、激光设备为三级子行业。根据同花顺测算的行业平均 营收增速，2021年后，自动化设备领域主要子行业成长放缓，其中机器人板块2024H1平 均营收同比下降 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------|----------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 证券分析师：杜永宏 执业证书编号： 联系人：付婷 联系方式： | 证券分析师：伍可心 执业证书编号： | S0630522120001 | | 2 核心观点 ● 受多因素扰动上半年业绩承压，下半年业绩有望企稳向好。统计432家医药生物板块上市公司2024H1整体实现营业收入 12287.04亿元，同比下降0.98%；归母净利润1024.87亿元，同比下降8.97%。2023Q1-2024Q2，医药生物行业上市公司营 收同比增速分别为2.10%、5.33%、-3.32%、-1.87%、-0.40%、-1.58%；归母净利润同比增速分别为0.16%、-1.25%、- 4.61%、4.02%、1.66%、-2.42%。受疫情基数 ...

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月12日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20240912 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人： 花雨欣 hyx@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1.国茂股份（603915）：需求有待企稳，经营性回款改善——公司简评报告 ➢ 2.旺季批价波动，关注需求复苏——食品饮料行业周报（2024/9/2-2024/9/8） 财经要闻 ➢ 1.国务院印发《关于加强监管防范风险推动保险业高质量发展的若干意见》 ➢ 2.美国8月未季调CPI低于预期，核心CPI持平预期 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 正文目录 1. 重点推荐 ............. 3 1.1. 国茂股份（603915 ): 需求有待企稳，经营性回款改善――公司简评报告.. 3 1.2. 旺季批价波动，关注需求复苏――食品饮料行业周报（2024/ ...

Inflation Data - In August, the US CPI increased by 2.5% year-on-year, below the expected 2.6% and down from the previous 2.9%[2] - The core CPI rose by 3.2% year-on-year, matching expectations, while the month-on-month increase was 0.3%, exceeding the expected 0.2%[2] Market Implications - The unexpected strength in core inflation has raised the probability of a 25bps rate cut in September to 87%, up from 66%[3] - The likelihood of a 50bps cut decreased from 34% to 13%[3] Price Trends - Energy prices were a major drag, with gasoline and fuel prices falling by 0.6% and 1.9% respectively month-on-month[2] - Housing prices continued to rise, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, contributing over 80% to the CPI's month-on-month growth[3] Core Inflation Dynamics - Core goods prices have been on a downward trend for five of the last six months, although the rate of decline has slowed[2] - The prices of used cars have seen a narrowing decline, while new car prices remained stable compared to previous values[2] Economic Outlook - The persistence of inflation, particularly in housing and services, suggests uncertainty regarding future inflation trends[3] - Changes in political support, particularly related to the presidential election, may influence inflation expectations and asset prices[3]

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月11日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20240911 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人： 花雨欣 hyx@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1.8月外贸数据的"热"与"冷"——国内观察：2024年8月进出口数据 ➢ 2.中非光储领域合作推进，8月电车销量表现优异——电池及储能行业周报（20240902- 20240908） ➢ 3.光伏硅料硅片挺价，风电招开标规模持续增加——新能源电力行业周报（20240902- 20240908) 财经要闻 ➢ 1.十四届全国人大常委会第十一次会议在京举行 ➢ 2.外交部表示坚决反对美众议院通过的生物安全法草案 ➢ 3.习近平在全国教育大会上强调：紧紧围绕立德树人根本任务朝着建成教育强国战略目标 扎实迈进 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 正文目录 1. 重点推 ...

公 司 研 究 银 行 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月11日 公 司 简 评 [Table_invest] 增持（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-----------------| | | | | 数据日期 收盘价 | 2024/09/11 4.51 | | 总股本 ( 万股 ) | 9,916,108 | | 流通 A 股 /B 股 ( 万股 ) | 6,712,240/0 | | 资产负债率 (%) | 93.87% | | 市净率 ( 倍 ) | 0.44 | | 净资产收益率 ( 加权 ) | 5.72 | | 12 个月内最高 / 最低价 | 5.22/4.21 | [Table_QuotePic] -21% -16% -10% -5% 1% 6% 12% 17% 23-09 23-12 24-03 24-06 邮储银行 沪深300 [相关研究 Table_Report] ...