Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1][23]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant growth in Kuaishou e-commerce, with a 55% year-on-year increase in search payment order volume during the 618 shopping festival [3][17]. - The establishment of the first batch of 10P computing power at the Gansu hub of the national integrated computing power network is noted as a key development [3][17]. - The report indicates a mixed performance in the media and communication sectors, with the media index declining by 5.12% and the communication index increasing by 1.28% during the week of June 17-21, 2024 [7][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The media and communication industry is experiencing varied performance, with the media index down 5.12% and the communication index up 1.28% in the specified week [7][11]. - The overall market performance includes a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.14% and the ChiNext Index by 1.98% [7][11]. Key Announcements - Kuaishou e-commerce reported a 55% increase in search payment orders during the 618 shopping festival, with a 26% increase in active merchants and a 25% increase in orders from small and medium-sized merchants [17]. - The Gansu hub of the national integrated computing power network successfully launched its first batch of 10P computing power, with plans to expand significantly by the end of the year [17]. - Filin Kosen has achieved mass production of 2.0T/8.0T data center switches, indicating advancements in hardware development capabilities [17]. Stock Performance - Key stocks in the media and communication sector showed varied performance, with stocks like Mango Super Media down by 8.09% and Langchao Information up by 2.67% during the week [11][13]. - The report provides a detailed table of stock performance, including market capitalization and profit forecasts for various companies in the sector [5].

东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 6 月 24 日 看好/维持 传媒 行业报告 周观点: 浪潮信息借助 AI 服务器东风,增值渠道升级为元脑生态。2017-2019 年,公 司软硬一体化 2B 销售体系处于 1.0 阶段,公司与软件厂商存在"供养式"合 作关系,以及利益分配规则不明确等问题。在 AI 时代来临后,2019 年 4 月, 公司在 IPF2019 大会上正式推出"元脑生态"(Meta Brain),联合具备 AI 技 术开发能力的左手伙伴与分销渠道的右手伙伴,共同为行业提供端到端的 Al 解决方案。AI 时代为公司与软件开发厂商合作建立了实践场景,同时市场存在 大量增量客户对人工智能较为关注。公司推出"元脑生态",标志公司软硬一 体化 2B 销售体系成型,进入快速发展 2.0 时代。 走势概览: 本周(2024.6.17-2024.6.21),传媒(申万)指数下跌 5.12%,通信(申万) 指数上涨 1.28%,上证指数下跌 1.14%,创业板指数下跌 1.98%,恒生科技指 数下跌 0.17%。 本周(2024.6.17-2024.6.21),涨跌幅排 ...

房地产周报 20240624:新房销售偏 弱,二手房销售回暖 市场行情:本周 A 股地产板块表现弱于大盘、H 股地产板块表现弱于大盘。本 周(6.17-6.21)A 股房地产指数(801180.SL)涨幅-5.76%(上周-1.47%), A 股中证 A 股指数(930903.CSI)涨幅-1.66%(上周-0.09%);H 股(6.17-6.21) 恒生地产及物业管理指数(HSPDM.HK)涨幅-3.71%(上周-3.61%),H 股恒 生指数(HSI.HK)涨幅 0.48%(上周-2.31%)。 行业销售:新房销售持续弱势。从数据来看,20 城商品房年内累计销售面积 (1.1~6.22)同比增速为-33.89%,对应前值(1.1~6.15)为-34.39%。其中一 线城市(4 城) 年内累计销售面积(1.1~6.22)同比增速为-30.68%,对应前值 (1.1~6.15)为-31.47%。20 城商品房销售面积本月至今(6.1~6.22)同比增 速为-32.63%,上月(5.1-5.31)整月同比增速为-28.87%。其中一线城市(4 城)本月至今(6.1~6.22)同比增速为-27.71%,上月(5. ...

行 业 研 究 银行业跟踪：央行表态坚持支持性货币 政策立场，关注政策框架的演进 2024 年 6 月 24 日 看好/维持 银行 行业报告 周观点 上周央行行长潘功胜在陆家嘴论坛做主题演讲，阐述了中国当前货币 政策立场及未来货币政策框架的演进。 货币政策立场：坚持支持性的货币政策立场。加强逆周期和跨周期调 节，支持巩固和增强经济回升向好态势，为经济社会发展营造良好的 货币金融环境。近期优化金融业增加值核算方式、促进信贷均衡投放、 治理和防范资金空转、整顿手工补息等规范市场的措施，对金融总量 数据产生"挤水分"效应，不意味着货币政策立场变化。更有利于提 升货币政策传导效率、减少资金空转套利、防范化解金融风险。 货币政策调控将注重把握和处理好短期与长期、稳增长与防风险、内 部与外部的三方面关系。（1）把维护价格稳定、推动价格温和回升作 为重要考量，灵活运用利率、存款准备金率等政策工具，同时保持政 策定力，不大放大收。（2）统筹兼顾支持实体经济增长与保持金融机 构自身健康性的关系，坚持在推动经济高质量发展中防范化解金融风 险。（3）主要考虑国内经济金融形势需要进行调控，兼顾其他经济体 经济和货币政策周期的外溢影响 ...

事件：5 月全国快递服务企业业务完成量 147.8 亿件，同比增长 23.8%，增速 较 4 月的 22.7%继续提升。分类型看，5 月同城件业务量增长 21.1%，异地件 业务量增长 24.4%。 通达系三家上市公司增速皆高于行业均值，韵达市场份额较去年同期提升约 0.9pct，申通份额同比提升约 0.6pct。顺丰件量增速提升 14.0%，若剔除丰 网影响，则同比增长 21.9%，增速也有明显抬头。环比来看，申通、韵达与 圆通环比 4 月件量分别提升 12.6%、6.5%和 6.2%，顺丰则环比增长 9.2%。 【东兴交运】快递 5 月数据点评：业务量维持高增长，单票价格继续下探 行业评级体系 公司投资评级（A 股市场基准为沪深 300 指数，香港市场基准为恒生指数，美国市场基准为标普 500 指 数）： 以报告日后的 6 个月内，公司股价相对于同期市场基准指数的表现为标准定义： 强烈推荐：相对强于市场基准指数收益率 15％以上； 推荐：相对强于市场基准指数收益率 5％～15％之间； 回避：相对弱于市场基准指数收益率 5％以上。 行业投资评级（A 股市场基准为沪深 300 指数，香港市场基准为恒生指数，美 ...

Group 1 - The FOMC's dot plot indicates a significant tightening, with the median expected rate cut for the year reduced from 75 basis points to 25 basis points, reflecting a shift in the committee's stance on monetary policy [2][3] - Current economic indicators such as GDP growth at 2.84% year-on-year and a stable unemployment rate do not support the need for rate cuts, with inflation being the primary driver for any potential cuts [3][4] - The real estate sector is experiencing a negative feedback loop due to declining property prices, which suppresses consumer spending and further reduces housing demand, leading to a continuous cycle of price drops [7][8][9] Group 2 - The real estate industry's downturn is impacting local government revenues and overall domestic demand, as the decline in property sales affects land sales income, which is crucial for local government finances [23] - The report anticipates a new balance in the real estate sector as systemic policies are implemented, suggesting that the industry may stabilize and return to a healthier growth trajectory [9] - The construction and building materials sector is expected to face challenges due to the real estate slump, but there are opportunities for growth as the market seeks to establish a new equilibrium [24] Group 3 - The AI server market is evolving with the introduction of the "Meta Brain" ecosystem, which aims to enhance collaboration between software developers and distribution channels, marking a transition to a more integrated sales model [12] - The domestic airline industry is showing signs of recovery, with a slight increase in capacity and passenger load factors, although international routes remain under pressure due to seasonal factors [28][30] - The insurance sector is projected to see a recovery in demand driven by increased consumer awareness and favorable economic conditions, with expectations for improved performance across life and property insurance segments [32][34]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing high growth in business volume, with a year-on-year increase of 23.8% in May, surpassing the previous month's growth rate of 22.7% [2][8] - Intense price competition continues, with the average price per ticket dropping from 7.99 yuan in April to 7.85 yuan in May, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.2% [17][19] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with leading companies like Zhongtong and Yuantong showing resilience in pricing strategies, while Shentong and Yunda are engaging in aggressive price competition [28][29] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The express delivery industry comprises 128 companies, with a total market value of 30,250.61 billion yuan, representing 3.66% of the overall market [1] - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the industry stands at 16.54 [1] Business Volume Analysis - In May, the total business volume reached 14.78 billion pieces, with same-city deliveries growing by 21.1% and intercity deliveries by 24.4% [2][8] - The demand in the industry remains strong, with major players exceeding peak levels from the previous year [7][13] Pricing Trends - The price competition is particularly fierce in the low-price segment, with significant declines in ticket prices for major companies [17][19] - Shentong and Yunda's ticket revenues are nearing 2 yuan, indicating a highly competitive environment [22][24] Market Share Dynamics - The market share of Yunda and Shentong has increased by approximately 0.9 percentage points and 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [13][28] - The industry concentration ratio (CR8) has improved, indicating a shift towards larger players gaining market share [25][26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies Zhongtong and Yuantong, as they are better positioned to navigate the ongoing price competition and potential market recovery [29][28]

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------|-------|--------------------------------|-------------------| | 分析师推荐 \n【东兴传媒互联网】腾讯控股 (00700)2024Q1 业绩公告点评：净利润高速增 | A 股港股市场 \n指数名称 | 2024 | 年 6 月 20 \n收盘价 | 日星期四 \n涨跌 % | | 长， AI 为业务发展注入新动力（ 20240619） | 上证指数 | | 3,005.44 | -0.42 | | 事件：腾讯发布 2024 年一季度业绩公告， 2024Q1 公司实现营业收入 159 ...

农林牧渔行业:5 月猪价涨势迅猛, 养殖盈利明显改善 ——生猪养殖行业月度跟踪 行业供需表现:5 月中下旬起猪价涨势迅猛。农业农村部监测数据显示,2024 年 5 月仔猪、活猪和猪肉均价分别为 38.70 元/公斤、15.59 元/公斤和 25.24 元/公斤,同比变化分别为 6.04%、7.16%和 4.09%,环比变化分别为 5.38%、 1.55%和 0.24%。5 月中下旬起猪价出现明显抬升,6 月快速上涨趋势持续,6 月中旬全国生猪出栏均价已达 19 元/公斤左右。供应端对于后市预期乐观,存 在缩量挺价情绪,二次育肥积极入场,与终端市场抢夺猪源,进一步推升了猪 价上涨趋势。消费端需求支撑有限,屠宰企业存在压价行为,供需持续博弈。 产能变化趋势:国家统计局数据显示,5 月全国能繁母猪存栏 3996 万头,环 比小幅增长 0.25%,产能去化暂告一段落。4 月能繁母猪存栏低点相比 22 年 高点去化幅度 9.20%,现有的产能去化积累已足以带来新一轮周期的上涨。 后市周期预判:能繁母猪存栏量自 23 年下半年开始加速去化并持续到 24 年 Q1,产能端的收缩预计从 24Q2 开始逐步传导至商品猪出栏,叠 ...

公 司 研 究 齐鲁银行（601665.SH）：深耕经济大省， 2024年6月20日 推荐/首次 高扩表城商行 东 齐鲁银行 公司报告 兴 证 基本概况：齐鲁银行成立于 1996 年，总部位于山东济南。公司股权结构均衡 公司简介： 券 稳定，国资背景深厚；核心管理团队稳定，组织层级扁平、机制灵活。近年齐 齐鲁银行成立于 1996年6月6日，是全国 股 鲁银行保持快速扩表，盈利增速跻身第一梯队，ROE持续提升。2023年齐鲁银 首批、山东省首家设立并引进境外战略投资 份 行ROE为12.9%，在上市城商行中排名第6。 的城商行。战略布局根植济南，立足山东， 有 我们认为，下一阶段齐鲁银行维持盈利高增的关键在于：（1）规模能否保持高 辐射天津、河南、河北。2021年6月18日， 限 增，未来公司扩表空间有多大；（2）净息差能否保持相对稳定；（3）资产质量 齐鲁银行在上海证券交易所正式挂牌上市 能否延续改善趋势，信用成本是否具有下降空间。 （股票代码601665.SH）。国内主体信用评级 公 达到AAA最高等级，连续多年获得山东省地 司  规模：稳步推进异地布局、县域金融，快速扩表有支撑。 方金融企业绩效评价“A ...