行 业 研 究 食品饮料行业：中央经济工作会议 解读：提振消费是亮点，明年政策 将继续落地 2024 年 12 月 17 日 看好/维持 食品饮料 行业报告 部署九大重点任务，"大力提振消费"排在第一位。中央经济工作会议 12 月 12 日召开，在大会提出的"九项"任务中"大力提振消费，提高投资效益， 全方位扩大国内需求"被排在了第一位，消费是明年的重要政策抓手。经济动 能切换和外部压力的冲击下，消费在经济中的重要性被动提升。 在扩大内需方面，中央经济工作会议提出三大方向：1、实施提振消费专项行 动，推动中低收入群体增收减负，提升消费能力、意愿和层级。适当提高退休 人员基本养老金，提高城乡居民基础养老金，提高城乡居民医保财政补助标准。 2、加力扩围实施"两新"政策，创新多元化消费场景，扩大服务消费，促进 文化旅游业发展。积极发展首发经济、冰雪经济、银发经济。3、加强自上而 下组织协调，更大力度支持"两重"项目。 细化政策或进一步落地，消费复苏可期。在"扩内需"的大方向下，我们预期 明年各地具体的执行政策或出台，消费复苏的趋势整体可期，特别是针对保就 业、增收减负的政策，对推动中低收入群体增收减负，提升消费能力 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the retail industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [2][33]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand to stimulate consumer market vitality, with a focus on innovative and service-oriented consumption [8][15]. - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the necessity of boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency, reflecting a strong commitment to enhancing domestic demand [8]. - The report identifies "first-release economy" as a key driver for offline retail channels and top consumer brands, suggesting that new product launches and promotional events can significantly enhance brand visibility and market impact [9][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The retail industry comprises 93 companies, with a total market capitalization of approximately 941.78 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.98% increase [4][5]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the industry stands at 75.45 [7]. Consumer Trends - The report anticipates that innovative consumption and service-oriented consumption will be the main growth drivers, particularly in areas such as digital consumption, green consumption, and health-oriented services [8][14]. - The service consumption sector is expected to focus on basic livelihood needs and upgraded cultural demands, with significant growth potential in areas like elderly care and tourism [14]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the consumer market remains weak, but the expansion of domestic demand policies is likely to boost consumer confidence and market activity [15]. - Key sectors expected to benefit include trendy toys, beauty care, medical aesthetics, gold and jewelry, and tourism [15]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) forecasts for several companies, indicating a positive outlook for brands with strong market presence and flexible operations [17]. - Notable companies include: - Proya: EPS forecast of 3.97 yuan for 2024, with a PE of 23 [17]. - Betaini: EPS forecast of 1.74 yuan for 2024, with a PE of 28 [17]. - Aimeike: EPS forecast of 8.29 yuan for 2024, with a PE of 25 [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [2][73]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the domestic aviation market is currently in a low-demand season, leading to a reduction in capacity deployment by approximately 10.4% compared to October, which is equivalent to 115% of the capacity in the same period of 2019. Year-on-year, there is only a slight increase of 1.8% [8][22]. - The report notes a significant divergence in passenger load factors among airlines, with Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines showing higher load factors compared to 2019, while Air China and others are performing similarly to that period. This indicates differing sales strategies among airlines in response to low demand [9][30]. - The report suggests that the oversupply in domestic routes remains a challenge, and the recovery of international routes is crucial to alleviate this pressure. The performance of major airlines' stock prices has shown a significant margin of safety after prolonged adjustments, making them worthy of attention [10][40]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The transportation industry has a market capitalization of approximately 33,430.04 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 29,435.26 billion yuan. The average price-to-earnings ratio for the industry stands at 18.13 [5][6][7]. Domestic Route Capacity Deployment - In November, the domestic aviation market entered a low season, with a further decrease in capacity deployment. The cautious approach to capacity management reflects airlines' awareness of insufficient demand in the fourth quarter [8][22]. Passenger Load Factors - The passenger load factor for the industry decreased by approximately 2.7 percentage points month-on-month in November but remains 1.6 percentage points higher than in the same month of 2019. Airlines are facing challenges in balancing ticket prices and load factors due to low demand [9][30]. International Route Performance - For international routes, capacity deployment in November was about 92% of the level seen in the same month of 2019, with a month-on-month decrease of approximately 5.7%. The load factor for international routes improved by 0.7 percentage points compared to October, exceeding expectations [10][40]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the recovery of international routes will be essential for addressing the oversupply in domestic routes. Despite ongoing operational pressures, the fundamental improvements in the industry suggest that profit performance is likely to be significantly better than last year [10][40].

Group 1 - The report highlights the growth potential of the ice and snow industry, with a target economic scale of 1.2 trillion yuan by 2027 and 1.5 trillion yuan by 2030, as set by the State Council [5][6] - The number of ice and snow sports venues in China increased by 16.11% in 2023, with ski resorts growing by 6.47% and ice skating venues by 21.32% [5][6] - High-end ski resorts and indoor ski venues are experiencing strong demand, with ski visits increasing by over 30% [5][6] Group 2 - The personal pension system is being promoted nationwide, allowing all workers participating in basic pension insurance to join the system starting December 15, 2024 [7][10] - The total pension assets managed by public funds have exceeded 6 trillion yuan, indicating a significant market for pension-related investment products [7][10] - The report suggests that the implementation of the personal pension system will enhance the sales of various insurance products and benefit brokerage firms through increased product distribution [10] Group 3 - In November 2024, new home sales in major cities showed signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2% in sales area [25][27] - The report indicates that the central government is likely to implement more proactive policies to stabilize the real estate market, which could create investment opportunities in the sector [25][27] - The cumulative sales area of commercial housing from January to November 2024 decreased by 14.3%, but the trend is improving [25][27] Group 4 - In November 2024, the total social financing increased by 2.34 trillion yuan, with government bonds contributing significantly to this growth [29][32] - The report notes that the M1 money supply decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, but showed signs of improvement compared to previous months [32][34] - The banking sector is expected to benefit from ongoing policy support and an improving economic outlook, making it a focus for investment [34][36]

Group 1: Food and Beverage Industry - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the central economic work conference has prioritized boosting consumption as a key task for the upcoming year, with policies expected to be implemented to enhance consumer spending and improve investment efficiency [2][3] - Three main policy directions for expanding domestic demand were outlined: implementing special actions to boost consumption, enhancing the "two new" policies to innovate diverse consumption scenarios, and strengthening organizational coordination to support key projects [2] - The report anticipates a recovery in food and beverage consumption, particularly in sub-sectors closely related to economic prosperity, such as liquor and condiments, suggesting a mid-to-long-term positive trend for companies with increasing market share like Kweichow Moutai and Anjuke Food [3] Group 2: Banking Industry - The report indicates that in 2024, listed banks experienced a significant recovery in valuation, with both absolute and relative returns improving, particularly among state-owned banks and quality small and medium-sized banks [4] - Looking ahead to 2025, macro policies are expected to adopt extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments, with moderate monetary easing likely to lead to a further decline in broad interest rates, although banks may still face pressure on net interest margins [5] - The report suggests that the improvement in asset quality is anticipated due to the alleviation of risks in real estate and local platforms, which could enhance banks' asset quality expectations [5][9] Group 3: Ice and Snow Industry - The report highlights that the high-quality development of the ice and snow industry is supported by government policies, with the total scale of the ice and snow economy expected to reach 1.2 trillion yuan by 2027 and 1.5 trillion yuan by 2030 [18][19] - There has been a notable increase in the number of ice and snow sports venues, with a 16.11% growth in total venues compared to 2022, indicating a growing consumer demand for high-end and indoor ski resorts [18][19] - The report estimates that the equipment investment in the ice and snow industry could exceed 200 billion yuan annually, driven by the increasing number of indoor and small ski resorts, which are expected to continue growing due to rising incomes and supportive policies [20][24] Group 4: Non-Banking Financial Sector - The report discusses the nationwide rollout of the personal pension system, which is expected to enhance the multi-pillar pension system and improve the capital market's wealth management capabilities [26][27] - The implementation of tax incentives for personal pensions is anticipated to increase public awareness and acceptance, potentially boosting the sales of various insurance products [28][29] - The report suggests that the positive developments in the personal pension system could lead to significant performance improvements for brokerage firms and asset management companies [29][32]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive/Maintain" [1] Core Viewpoints - November new home sales turned positive year-on-year, while the decline in funds received by real estate companies narrowed [4] - The central government shows a continuous willingness to stabilize the real estate market, with expectations for more proactive policies in the future [4] Sales Summary - For January to November 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing decreased by 14.3% year-on-year, improving from a previous decline of 15.8%. The cumulative sales amount decreased by 19.2%, better than the previous decline of 20.9% [2] - In November, the sales area increased by 3.2% year-on-year, compared to a previous decline of 1.6%. The sales amount increased by 1.0%, improving from a previous decline of 1.0%. However, the average sales price decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, compared to a previous increase of 0.2% [2] Development Investment Summary - From January to November 2024, the cumulative new construction area decreased by 23.0% year-on-year, slightly worsening from a previous decline of 22.6%. The cumulative completion area decreased by 26.2%, worsening from a previous decline of 23.9%. The cumulative development investment amount decreased by 10.4%, similar to the previous decline of 10.3% [3] - In November, the new construction area decreased by 26.8% year-on-year, slightly worsening from a previous decline of 26.7%. The completion area saw a significant decline of 38.8%, worsening from a previous decline of 20.1%. The development investment amount decreased by 11.6%, improving from a previous decline of 12.3% [3] Funds Received Summary - For January to November 2024, the cumulative funds received by real estate development companies decreased by 18.0% year-on-year, improving from a previous decline of 19.2%. In November, the single-month funds received decreased by 4.8%, improving from a previous decline of 10.8% [4] - Domestic loans decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, improving from a previous decline of 8.8%. Self-raised funds decreased by 15.6%, improving from a previous decline of 22.7%. Deposits and advance payments increased by 5.0%, improving from a previous decline of 3.9% [4] Future Industry Events - Key industry events in the next 3-6 months include the release of January-February 2025 real estate data by the National Bureau of Statistics in mid-February 2025 [5] Industry Basic Information - The industry consists of 114 listed companies, with a total market value of 1,434.278 billion and a circulating market value of 1,324.534 billion. The average industry P/E ratio is -23.39 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% in the next 6 months [5][52]. Core Insights - In November 2024, the sales prices of new and second-hand homes in major cities showed a narrowing decline, with first-tier cities experiencing a halt in the decline of new home prices and a continued increase in second-hand home prices [2][4]. - The report highlights that the central government is showing a consistent willingness to stabilize and promote the recovery of the real estate market, suggesting that future policies will be more proactive and sustained [5]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - In November, the new residential sales price index for 70 major cities recorded a month-on-month decline of -0.2%, an improvement from -0.5% in the previous month [2]. - The first-tier cities' new residential sales price index remained unchanged at 0.0%, with specific cities like Beijing and Shanghai showing month-on-month changes of -0.5% and 0.6%, respectively [2]. - The second-hand residential price index for 70 major cities saw a month-on-month decline of -0.3%, improving from -0.5% previously [3]. Year-on-Year Changes - The year-on-year decline in the new residential sales price index for 70 major cities was -6.1%, slightly better than the previous -6.2% [4]. - First-tier cities experienced a year-on-year decline of -4.3%, with notable variations among cities such as Beijing at -5.3% and Shanghai at 5.0% [4]. - The year-on-year decline for the second-hand residential price index across 70 major cities was -8.5%, an improvement from -8.9% [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that investors should continue to pay attention to opportunities within the real estate sector, as both supply and demand are expected to receive more positive and sustained policy support [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [8] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that government bonds continue to support social financing, with M1 growth rate showing signs of recovery [9][10] - In November, social financing increased by 2.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 119.7 billion yuan, while the stock of social financing grew by 7.8% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the previous month [20] - The report indicates that the structure of social financing is heavily influenced by government bonds, which accounted for 56% of the new social financing in November [2][9] Summary by Sections Social Financing - Government bonds contributed significantly to the new social financing, with 1.31 trillion yuan issued in November, an increase of 158.9 billion yuan year-on-year [2] - The new RMB loans amounted to 580 billion yuan in November, a year-on-year decrease of 510 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.7% [3][20] - Off-balance-sheet financing saw an increase of 81.9 billion yuan, while direct financing through corporate bonds reached 242.8 billion yuan, up 109.8 billion yuan year-on-year [2][3] Credit - There was a marginal improvement in long-term loans for households, while corporate credit remains weak [3] - Household loans increased by 270 billion yuan, with long-term loans showing a year-on-year increase of 66.9 billion yuan [3] - Corporate loans saw a significant decline, with new loans of 250 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 572.1 billion yuan [3] Deposits - M1 showed a continued improvement trend, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%, but the decline narrowed by 2.4 percentage points [9][17] - In November, M1 increased by 1.75 trillion yuan, with the increase in demand deposits contributing to this growth [9][10] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the banking sector exhibits clear "post-cycle" characteristics, with room for upward valuation [9][10] - The anticipated mainline logic for 2025 includes enhanced value from long-term capital allocation and improved fundamental expectations driving valuation recovery [9][10]

行 业 研 究 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|----------------------------------------|------------------|----------------------------------------| | 设备 | 机械行业：冰雪产业高质量发展利好制冷 | 2024 \n看好/维持 | 年 12 月 15 日 \n机械 行业报告 | | 分析师 任天辉 电话： | 010-66554037 邮箱： renth@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号： | S1480523020001 | 投资摘要： 冰雪产业高质量发展或政策加持。2024 年 11 月 6 日，国务院办公厅发布《关于以冰雪运动高质量发展激发冰雪经济活力的 若干意见》，其中提到，到 2027 年冰雪运动场地设施更加完善，冰雪经济总规模达到 1.2 万亿元。到 2030 年，冰雪消费成 为扩大内需重要增长点，建成一批冰雪运动和冰雪旅游高质量目的地，冰雪经济总规模达到 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "positive" outlook for the food and beverage industry, indicating it is expected to outperform the market benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [10][25]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized "boosting consumption" as a key priority, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and improving investment efficiency [1][2]. - The report anticipates a recovery in consumption driven by specific policies aimed at increasing income and reducing burdens for low- and middle-income groups, which will positively impact food and beverage consumption [3]. - The implementation of "two new" policies is expected to further enhance consumption scenarios, particularly in sectors like cultural tourism and service consumption, with projections indicating a market scale exceeding 300 billion by 2025 [2][3]. - The report suggests that the recovery of food and beverage consumption will be closely linked to overall economic prosperity, particularly in sub-sectors like liquor and condiments, which are expected to recover first [3]. Summary by Sections Policy Directions - The report outlines three main policy directions for expanding domestic demand: 1. Implementing special actions to boost consumption, including increasing basic pensions and healthcare subsidies for urban and rural residents [2]. 2. Expanding the "two new" policies to innovate diverse consumption scenarios and promote service consumption [2]. 3. Enhancing coordination and support for key projects, with an increase in central budget investments [2]. Consumption Recovery - The report predicts a trend of consumption recovery, particularly benefiting the food and beverage sector, as policies aimed at job retention and income improvement are expected to have a significant impact [3]. - It is anticipated that consumption infrastructure investments will be supported by fiscal and financial coordination, further driving demand in tourism and related sectors [3]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends a medium to long-term perspective on the recovery trend in the food and beverage sector, highlighting companies with increasing market share such as Guizhou Moutai, Anjijia Food, and Three Squirrels as key investment opportunities [3]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and ratings for key companies in the industry, with Guizhou Moutai, Three Squirrels, and Anjijia Food receiving "recommended" ratings based on their expected performance [5].