[Table_Page] 深度分析|房地产 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 房地产行业 2024 年中报总结 板块核心净利率转负，土地投资兑现度下降 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 收入下降业绩亏损，板块持续承压。根据公司中报，24 年上半年板块 56 家房企实现营业收入 1.34 万亿元，同比下降 15%，归母净亏损 460 亿元，较 23 年同期多亏 333 亿元，自 22 年起板块连续亏损，累计亏 损规模达 2008 亿元，结算规模收缩、表内外利润率下行、三费费率上 行、减值规模提升是亏损的主要原因。利润率方面，24H1 板块房企扣 税毛利率为 11.1%，同比下降 3.0pct，表外投资净收益同比下降 48%。 房价下行叠加高价地集中结算较大程度上影响房企表内外盈利能力， 营收口径销售管理费用率 6.0%，同比基本持平，财务费用率 4.8%， 同比上升 1.0pct，此外板块合计计提减值损失 625 亿元，同比增长 41%，自 21 年以来板块连续 3 年减值规模在 2200 亿元以上。房企资 产减值压力测试通常发生在四季度，24 年减值节奏有所提前，考虑当 前房价仍处在下行 ...

[Table_Contacts] [Table_Title] 基础化工行业 资本开支放缓，盈利持续改善 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 24Q2 行业净利润增速环比提升，民爆、橡胶制品等板块净利润环比大 幅增长。根据 Wind 数据，收入增速（同比）：24Q2 为 4.1%，环比增加 2.6pct，多数子行业营收增速环比增加；净利润增速（同比）：24Q2 为 2.46%，环比增加 4.04pct，多数子行业增速环比增加；净利润绝对值： 24Q2 净利润环比增加 15.46%，民爆、橡胶制品、塑料制品环比大幅增 长。三桶油 24Q2 净利润同比+13%，环比 24Q1 的 8.6%增加 4.6pct。 ⚫ 24Q2 行业 ROE 环比提升，费用率环比下降。根据 Wind 数据，毛利 率：24Q2 行业毛利率环比略降，半数子行业环比上升；ROE：24Q2 行 业 ROE 环比提升，民爆、涂料油墨颜料、钾肥等子行业环比提升较大； 期间费用率：24Q2 行业整体费用率环比小幅下降，同比提升。 ⚫ 24Q2 资产负债率环比下降、存货环比持平，现金流水平提升。从基础 化工行业整体来看，根据 Wind 数据 ...

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|交通运输 2024 年 9 月 4 日 证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|----------------------------------|--------------------| | [Table_Title] | 交通运输行业 2024 年中报总结 | 旱则资舟，水则资车 | | [Tabl 分析师： | 许可 | | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号： S0260523120004 | | | | SFC CE.no: BUY008 | | | | 0755-82984511 | | | | xuke@gf.com.cn | | ⚫ 航运：根据供给周期判断，油运、散货运输后续的弹性＞集装箱运输，但短期景气则因需求呈现出不同的一面。 集运在出口需求超预期和红海危机二者催化下，走出大超预期的景气行情。中报大幅增长的公司主要集中在外 贸集运、散货板块。展望后市，集运长期盈亏比相对有限。油、散则当下虽供需双弱，但供给逻辑扎实，需要 耐心等待需求反转，短期虽走震荡，但长期盈亏比更有吸引力。 ⚫ 物流：（ ...

[Table_Contacts] [Table_Page] 深度分析|证券Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 证券行业 2024 年中报总结 泛自营为业绩胜负手，出海为业务加速点 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 整体业绩回撤，主要是市场波动，一二级再平衡下展业压力。2024H1，43 家上市券商合计实现归母净利润 635 亿元，同比-22.5%；实现营业收入 2353 亿元，同比-12.8%；管理费用合计 1119 亿元，同比-9%。下半年在 低基数下业绩降幅压力有望缓释；上半年管理费用降幅大于营收降幅的有 17 家，随着业绩降幅企稳，降本增效持续，后续有望贡献利润增量。 ⚫ 权益市场波动加剧，集团投资业绩下行；市场结构性凸显，券商资产配置 分化。自营投资为券商业绩胜负手，2024 上半年，43 家券商投资收益（含 公允）合计为 783 亿元，同比-11%，投资收入居前的有中信、招商。（1） 高质量发展下整体杠杆下降，前十券商中仅招商、中信等三家金融投资资 产占比较年初提升，测算收益率多有下滑，仅招商、银河等三家券商有明 显提升。（2）上半年债市和红利资产表现突出，券商债券投资占比分 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|医药生物 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 制药和 Biotech 行业 2024 年中报 总结及展望 新产品周期与院内复苏共振 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 行业中长期向好趋势确立。根据 Wind 数据，我们纳入分析了 58 家 A 股化学制药公司的情况，行业整体 2024 年上半年营收同比增速为 3.2%；2023 年 Q1 至 2024 年 Q2 单季度营收同比增速分别为 2.9%、 9.5%、-1.9%、1.3%、2.5%、3.8%，在行业监管趋严下，今年上半年 收入端增速逐季改善。2024 年上半年行业整体扣非净利率 13.5% (yoy +1.7pct)，盈利能力持续提升。同时，我们分析了 25 家 A 股和港股 Biotech 公司商业化药品的收入情况，2024 年上半年产品销售额达到 280.50 亿元(yoy +47%)。刚性需求的释放、创新产品周期以及行业产 品结构改善；同时，国产创新不断提质，创新药"出海"提速，行业中 长期向好趋势确立。 ⚫ 投资建议：新产品周期和院内复苏共振。从 2015 年开始，国内制药工 业从研发生产到 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Land (01109.HK) with a target price of HKD 29.77, compared to the current price of HKD 21.05 [4]. Core Insights - Development profit margins are under pressure, but recurring business serves as a stable foundation. For the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of CNY 79.13 billion, up 8.4% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 10.25 billion, down 25% [2][9]. - The sales structure has improved, with the top ten cities contributing over 60% of sales. The sales amount for the first half of 2024 was CNY 124.7 billion, down 27% year-on-year, with a sales price of CNY 24,000 per square meter, down 1% [2][16]. - Investment is focused on high-tier cities, with two new comprehensive projects acquired. The company spent CNY 25.6 billion on land acquisition in the first half of 2024, with a land acquisition ratio of 72% [2][19]. - Operating real estate shows stable improvement in operational efficiency. The income from investment properties was CNY 11.47 billion, up 7% year-on-year, with a total operating area of 12.59 million square meters, up 23.9% [2][21]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported total revenue of CNY 79.13 billion, with a core net profit of CNY 10.74 billion, reflecting a core net profit margin of 13.6% [2][9]. - The development business's gross profit margin was 12.4%, while the recurring business's gross profit margin was 71.5% [12][21]. Sales Analysis - The total sales amount for the first half of 2024 was CNY 124.7 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 27%. The equity sales amount was CNY 86 billion, down 32% [2][16]. - The contribution from first-tier cities was 38%, and the top ten cities accounted for 65% of total sales [2][16]. Land Acquisition and Projects - The company acquired 11 projects in the first half of 2024, with a total land acquisition cost of CNY 25.6 billion [2][19]. - The static gross profit margin for land acquisition was 34.1%, slightly higher than the previous year [2][19]. Investment Properties - The income from investment properties was CNY 11.47 billion, with a gross profit margin of 71.5% [2][21]. - The retail sales in shopping centers reached CNY 91.6 billion, up 22% year-on-year, indicating strong performance despite rental pressure [2][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a 29% year-on-year increase in performance for the first half of 2024, driven by improved water inflow and reduced costs [2]. - The company achieved a revenue of 34.808 billion yuan in H1 2024, a 12.38% increase year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.362 billion yuan, a 27.92% increase year-on-year [2][9]. - The report highlights the company's commitment to a 70% dividend payout ratio during the 14th Five-Year Plan, indicating stable dividend expectations [2][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Improvement - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for H1 2024, with a 27.9% year-on-year growth, attributed to better water inflow and a low base from the previous year [9]. - The total power generation reached 1,206 billion kWh, a 16.9% increase year-on-year, with Q2 showing a remarkable 42.5% increase [2][16]. 2. Water Inflow and Power Generation - The report notes that the recovery of water inflow has led to a substantial increase in power generation, with plans to achieve 3,074 billion kWh in 2024 under normal water conditions [2][16]. - The company has implemented a six-reservoir joint dispatch system to optimize power generation and mitigate water inflow fluctuations [19]. 3. Investment and Growth - The company is actively investing in domestic hydropower companies, with investment income increasing by 8.9% year-on-year in H1 2024 [2]. - The report emphasizes the company's strategy to develop integrated wind and solar power projects alongside hydropower, with a total installed capacity of nearly 2.65 million kW as of H1 2024 [22][25]. 4. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 34.255 billion yuan, 35.907 billion yuan, and 38.125 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively [26]. - The report suggests a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23 for 2024, leading to a target price of 32.20 yuan per share [4][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company achieved a significant year-on-year increase in net profit of 41.3%, reaching 39.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, despite a 3.7% decline in revenue to 402 billion yuan [2][9]. - The improvement in profitability is attributed to better coal power margins and stable investment income, with investment income amounting to 26 billion yuan, a 3.7% increase year-on-year [2][17]. - The company is expected to maintain a high return on equity (ROE) and continue to grow its net assets due to ongoing capacity expansions and improvements in coal costs [2][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Main Business Profitability and Investment Income - The company's main business profitability improved, with a gross margin increase of 4.6 percentage points year-on-year, supported by stable electricity prices and lower coal costs [2][21]. - The first half of 2024 saw a significant increase in operating cash flow, which reached 53 billion yuan, a 305% increase year-on-year [2][20]. 2. Impact of Hydropower and Coal Prices - The company's electricity generation increased by 0.8% year-on-year, but the hydropower output during the flood season suppressed coal power generation [21]. - The average settlement price for electricity was approximately 0.434 yuan per kilowatt-hour, reflecting a 2.3% decrease year-on-year [21][22]. 3. High ROE and Continuous Asset Growth - The company’s ROE exceeded 10% by the end of 2023, with expectations for continued growth driven by new capacity coming online [24][25]. - The company has ongoing projects that will enhance its coal power capacity, with a total expected capacity of 36.88 GW upon completion [24]. 4. Dividend Expectations - The company is projected to distribute cash dividends of 42 billion yuan in 2024, corresponding to a dividend yield of 5% based on the latest closing price [2][4]. 5. Financial Projections - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 83.32 billion yuan, 92.35 billion yuan, and 98.64 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 9.83, 8.87, and 8.31 [2][3].

[Table_Page] 中报点评|房地产开发 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 滨江集团（002244.SZ） 低毛利项目结算拉低利润率，聚焦杭州同时拓展新方向 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 年内结算滞后，低毛利项目结算拉低利润率水平。公司披露 24 年中 报，24H1 实现营收 242.0 亿元，同比-10%，归母净利 11.7 亿元，同 比-29%，扣非归母净利 11.3 亿元，同比-30%，其中 Q2 营收同比-38%， 归母净利同比-53%。竣工交付节奏的年内波动影响上半年结算体量， 两集中时期竞配建低毛利项目结算拉低利润率。24H1 滨江整体、扣税 毛利率为 9.6%、8.8%，同比回落 8.7pct、6.6pct，在三费费用管控稳 定、未计提减值的情况下，公司归母净利率 4.8%，同比下滑 1.2pct。 ⚫ 销售排名攀升，价格表现稳定。24H1 滨江实现销售金额 582.3 亿元， 同比下滑 37%，据克尔瑞榜单，销售排名升至第 8。24H1 滨江销售均 价 4.66 万元/平，根据中指院数据，滨江销售均价为杭州均价的 1.5 倍， 杭州相对稳定的价格对冲部分销量下行 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy - A / Buy - H" [2] Core Views - The company's Q2 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.85 billion yuan, showing impressive performance. The revenue for Q2 2024 was 48.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%, with a net profit of 3.85 billion yuan compared to 1.19 billion yuan in the same period last year. The non-recurring net profit was 3.63 billion yuan, up from 0.97 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily driven by increased export sales and optimized product structure in the domestic market [3][6]. - The company's gross margin and net margin improved sequentially, with Q2 2024 gross margin at 21.4% and net margin at 7.9%, reflecting year-on-year increases of 3.9 and 5.0 percentage points, respectively. The expense ratio for the period was 10.4%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year and sequentially [3][8]. - The product structure continued to optimize, with an increasing proportion of export sales. In Q2 2024, the total vehicle sales were 284,000 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.9% but a sequential increase of 3.4%. The export volume was 109,000 units, accounting for 38.2% of total sales, up 14.2 percentage points year-on-year [3][10][11]. - The company is expected to benefit from industry changes and is projected to enter a new upward development cycle. The estimated EPS for 2024-2026 is 1.28, 1.39, and 1.56 yuan per share, maintaining a fair value of 32.03 yuan per share for A-shares and 17.36 HKD per share for H-shares, both with a "Buy" rating [3][12].