Xml [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|国防军工 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------|----------------- ...

[Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] 银行行业:如果转按揭放开， 影响与意义如何？ 2024-09-08 银行资负跟踪 20240901:央 2024-09-02 行公开市场买债，票据利率 回升 情绪冲击结束，配置价值提升 ——银行投资观察 20240908 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 板块表现方面：本期（2024/9/2-2024/9/6），Wind 全 A 下跌 2.5%，银 行板块整体（中信一级行业）下跌 1.8%，排在所有行业第 12 位，跑 赢万得全 A。国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行变动幅度分别为-3.28%、 -1.20%、-0.93%、-0.95%。恒生综合指数下跌 2.6%，H 股银行跌幅 2.7%，跑输恒生综合指数，跑输 A 股银行。 个股表现方面：Wind 数据显示 A 股银行涨幅前三为华夏银行上涨 8.31%、南京银行上涨 2.32%、苏州银行上涨 2.14%，跌幅前三为厦门 银行下跌 6.15%、工商银行下跌 5.69%、青岛银行下跌 4.85%。H 股 银行涨幅靠前为广州农商银行上涨 11.84%、农业银行上涨 0.87%，跌 幅靠前为江西银行下跌 6. ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" [3] Core Views - The industry faces weak demand during the off-season, but leading companies show stronger resilience [2] - Revenue growth slowed in Q2 2024, with leading companies like Haitian Flavoring maintaining steady growth [2] - Profitability is under pressure due to increased market expenses, but leading companies demonstrate resilience [2] Revenue Analysis - **Base Seasonings**: - Q2 2024 saw a slowdown in demand, with leading companies like Haitian Flavoring showing resilience [2] - Haitian Flavoring, Meiji, and Qianhe Flavoring reported Q2 revenue growth of +7.98%, -12.12%, and -2.53% respectively [2] - Anqi Yeast and Hengshun Vinegar showed improvement, with Q2 revenue growth of +11.30% and +3.36% respectively [2] - **Compound Seasonings**: - Weak demand in Q2 2024, but lobster seasoning saw rapid growth due to strong terminal demand [2] - Tianwei Food's internal revenue declined, but its subsidiary Shicui continued high growth [2] Profitability Analysis - **Gross Margin**: - Raw material costs declined in Q2 2024, improving costs for most companies [2] - Haitian Flavoring's gross margin improved by +1.60%, while Qianhe Flavoring's declined by -2.28% due to adjustments in shipment schedules [2] - **Expense Ratio**: - Sales expense ratios increased for most companies due to intensified competition [2] - Haitian Flavoring, Meiji, and Qianhe Flavoring saw sales expense ratios increase by +1.03, +6.86, and +2.48 percentage points respectively [2] - **Net Profit Margin**: - Net profit margins were under pressure in Q2 2024, but leading companies like Haitian Flavoring and Anqi Yeast showed resilience [2] - Haitian Flavoring's net profit margin increased by +0.73 percentage points, while Meiji's declined by -2.71 percentage points [2] Future Outlook - **Base Seasonings**: - Leading companies like Haitian Flavoring and Anqi Yeast are expected to maintain resilience, with potential for improvement in other companies [2] - Haitian Flavoring's channel reforms and Anqi Yeast's overseas expansion are key drivers [2] - **Compound Seasonings**: - Small B channels are expected to contribute incremental growth, with new product launches accelerating [2] - Tianwei Food's offline small B channel expansion and Shicui's high growth are key areas to watch [2] Investment Recommendations - Core recommendations include Anqi Yeast, Haitian Flavoring, and Qianhe Flavoring [2] - Other companies to watch include Tianwei Food, Meiji, Fuling Zhacai, and Hengshun Vinegar [2]

[Table_Contacts] [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|传媒 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 传媒行业：AI 行业周报 阶跃星辰发布图像生成大模型，Luma 发布最新 AI 视频生成工 具 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 国内 AI 动态跟踪：根据 SimilarWeb，上周（2024/8/26 - 2024/9/1） 国内主要 AI 大模型产品网页端访问量分别为：kimi 541.67 万次，环比 上升 7.35%；文心一言 431.40 万次，环比上升 5.16%；通义千问 199.01 万次，环比上升 11.69%；豆包 254.09 万次，环比上升 9.39%； 智谱清言 73.45 万次，环比下降 0.50%；讯飞星火 50.81 万次，环 比下降 6.45%；天工 AI 39.51 万次，环比下降 18.27%；腾讯元宝 25.58 万次，环比上升 17.62%。App 下载量看，根据七麦数据，kimi 11.75 万次，环比上升 21.86%；文心一言 13.51 万次，环比上升 22.22%； 通义千问 5.72 万次，环比下降 9.52%；豆包 160 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of the company, with a target price of 12.86 CNY per share for A shares and 7.83 HKD per share for H shares [5][14]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 16.237 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.56%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 731 million CNY, a decrease of 38.74% [2][9]. - The profitability from overseas cement operations offsets losses from domestic operations, with a slight increase in overseas average prices [2][9]. - Aggregate and concrete sales showed strong growth, with aggregates contributing significantly to profit margins [3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit**: In H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 16.237 billion CNY, with a net profit of 731 million CNY, reflecting a decline in profitability compared to the previous year [2][9]. - **Sales Volume**: Total cement and clinker sales volume was 28.48 million tons, down 4.9% year-on-year, with domestic sales down 15.7% and overseas sales up 47% [2][9]. - **Pricing and Costs**: The average selling price for cement was 304 CNY per ton, down 22 CNY year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 241 CNY, down 10 CNY [2][9]. Business Segment Performance - **Cement and Clinker**: This segment accounted for 53% of total revenue, with domestic operations underperforming due to market pressures [2][9]. - **Aggregates**: Aggregate sales volume increased by 42% year-on-year to 71.53 million tons, with stable profit margins [3][9]. - **Concrete**: Concrete sales volume rose by 34% year-on-year, although profit margins faced pressure due to market conditions [3][9]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2 billion CNY in 2024, 2.2 billion CNY in 2025, and 2.5 billion CNY in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.7, 10.6, and 9.1 [14][12]. - The report suggests a reasonable PB valuation of 0.9 times for A shares, indicating potential for price appreciation [14][12].

[Table_Page] 中报点评|电力 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 申能股份（600642.SH） 单季盈利趋于稳定，高分红公用事业化加速 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 单季业绩趋于稳定，现金流大幅改善。公司发布 2024 年中报，上半年 实现营收 137 亿元（同比-1.6%），归母净利润21.9 亿元（同比+18.7%）， 其中 Q1、Q2 分别为 11.6、10.3 亿元；扣非归母净利润 Q1、Q2 分别 为 8.91、9.53 亿元、环比持续改善（一季度存公允价值变动收益 3 亿 元）。上半年具体来看：（1）煤价下行煤电毛利率提升 8.6pct 至 14.5%； （2）投资收益贡献 9.2 亿元（同比+5.7%）。上半年公司经营现金流达 45 亿元（同比+21.8%），投资现金流净支出受海风开工等影响增至 26 亿元；2024H1 归母净资产较 2023 年末增长 4%。 ⚫ 电量下滑影响盈利有限，看好业绩持续兑现。上半年发电量 264 亿千 瓦时（同比+2.1%），其中 Q1、Q2 同比+15.9%、-12.8%；同期上网 电价 0.511 元/千瓦时（同比-3.0 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 10.78 CNY per share based on a 15x PE ratio for 2024 [4][43]. Core Views - Hailiang Co., Ltd. is a global leader in copper processing, continuously expanding production capacity and upgrading product structure. By the end of March 2024, the total production capacity will reach 1.28 million tons, with overseas capacity accounting for 36%. The company plans to add another 400,000 tons of new capacity in the future. Since 2019, the gross margin contribution from copper pipes has consistently exceeded 80%, with overseas sales gross margin reaching 49% in 2023. The company aims to become the largest copper foil producer globally by 2027, focusing on green manufacturing and accelerating new product development [2][3][10][21]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hailiang Co., Ltd. is a core subsidiary of Hailiang Group, established in 2001, and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2008. It is a leading manufacturer of copper pipes and rods, with products used in various industries including air conditioning, refrigeration, and electronics. The company operates 23 production bases globally and has established long-term relationships with nearly 10,000 customers across over 130 countries [10][11][12]. Production Capacity and Structure - As of March 2024, Hailiang's total copper processing capacity will be 1.28 million tons per year, with 36% of this capacity located overseas. The company plans to build an additional 400,000 tons of capacity, with production steadily increasing, reaching 850,000 tons in 2023 [13][15][17]. Financial Analysis - Hailiang's profitability is better than domestic peers, with a projected increase in earnings driven by global expansion and product upgrades. The company has a strong cost control capability and a stable profit model, which positions it well for future growth. The report forecasts net profits of 1.437 billion, 1.500 billion, and 1.635 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with EPS expected to be 0.72, 0.75, and 0.82 CNY per share [23][41][43]. Future Outlook - The company is focused on green manufacturing and aims to enhance its R&D capabilities to develop new products, particularly in the copper foil sector. Hailiang plans to leverage its existing R&D foundation to explore new market opportunities in emerging fields such as new energy materials and digital transformation [21][35][36]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates significant growth in Hailiang's copper processing output from 2024 to 2026, driven by recovering global demand and improved pricing. The company is expected to benefit from rising copper prices and an increase in processing fees, leading to enhanced profitability [41][43].

[Table_Contacts] [Table_Title] 证券Ⅱ行业 头部券商开启整合大幕，供给侧改革助推行业估值修复 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 9 月 5 日晚，国泰君安、海通证券发布公告因吸收合并停牌，预计停 牌时间不超过 25 个交易日。国泰君安证券正在筹划由公司通过向海 通证券全体 A 股换股股东发行 A 股股票、向海通证券全体 H 股换 股股东发行 H 股股票的方式换股吸收合并海通证券并发行 A 股股 票募集配套资金。本次重组涉及到 A 股和 H 股，涉及事项较多、涉 及流程较为复杂，本次重组有利于打造一流投资银行、促进行业高质 量发展，优化上海金融国资布局，推动上海国际金融中心建设。9 月 5 日，海通证券（A/H）的 PB 估值分别为 0.7x/0.27x，国泰君安（A/H） 的 PB 估值分别为 0.88x/0.44x，若 AH 对价换股，则标的方的估值有 望重估。 ⚫ 国泰君安和海通证券的整合会对证券行业格局产生深远影响。据公司 半年报，截止 2024 年半年度，国泰君安总资产 8981 亿元，海通证券 总资产 7214 亿元，分别排名第二和第五，合并后总资产 16 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|机械设备 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 造船行业跟踪报告（八） 船企中报总结：盈利与重组的双拐点 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 四家上市船企中报业绩符合预期。中国船舶、中船防务、中国重工、中 国动力 24 年上半年归母净利润分别同比增长 7.3 倍/10.6 倍 /177%/66%。市场的两个疑虑点：（1）中国船舶 Q2 收入表观增速下 滑：收入和基数结构有关，剔除去年的海工处置收益后 Q2 收入同比增 幅约为 3%。（2）毛利率提升不明显：由于原材料确认采用先进先出法、 人员增加等成本前置导致毛利率涨幅尚未显著体现，但同比改善明显， Q2 净利率已经增长到了接近 5%的水平，创下了近年历史新高。 ⚫ 船企中报的重点提炼：（1）民船为主的船厂净利率已提升至较高水平。 上半年外高桥造船、中船澄西已实现 8.4%/5.5%的净利率，民船占比 高的船厂净利率提升更快；（2）交付情况：坞期缩短、人效提高，生产 效率显著提升。多家船企交付的艘数和吨位数都实现了同比增长，平均 坞期同比缩短，中国船舶、中国重工的产能利用率相比去年全年分别提 升了 4pct ...

Industry Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for the media industry [2] Core Views - The media industry achieved revenue of **294.584 billion yuan** in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of **5.02%**, but net profit declined by **29.15%** to **17.032 billion yuan** [2] - In Q2 2024, the industry's revenue grew by **3.40%** to **151.337 billion yuan**, while net profit fell by **28.22%** to **9.092 billion yuan** [2] - The internet sector saw revenue growth of **18.37%** in H1 2024, but net profit declined by **10.18%** [2] - The gaming sector grew by **2.08%** in H1 2024, with mobile games contributing **73.01%** of the market share, while PC games showed more resilience with a **2.49%** growth [34] - The film and cinema sector faced challenges due to insufficient content supply, leading to a decline in domestic box office revenue in Q2 2024 [2] Sector Performance Internet Sector - Revenue in H1 2024 reached **396.85 billion yuan**, up **18.37%** year-on-year, with Q2 revenue at **184.85 billion yuan**, a **15.3%** increase [27] - Net profit in H1 2024 was **1.983 billion yuan**, down **10.18%**, with Q2 net profit at **1.159 billion yuan**, a **8.53%** decline [27] - Key companies like **Tencent Music** and **Bilibili** are highlighted for their stable performance and potential for profit optimization [2] Gaming Sector - The gaming market generated **147.267 billion yuan** in H1 2024, with mobile games contributing **107.517 billion yuan** and PC games **33.763 billion yuan** [34] - **Black Myth: Wukong** has been a standout success, validating the potential of domestic AAA games [2] - Companies like **37 Interactive Entertainment** and **Shenzhou Taiyue** are noted for their strong performance and product pipelines [34] Film and Cinema Sector - The sector experienced a decline in domestic box office revenue in Q2 2024 due to insufficient content supply, leading to losses for some companies [2] - Companies like **Wanda Film** and **Hengdian Film** are highlighted for their potential recovery as content supply improves [2] Education Sector - The public exam preparation market is dominated by **Fenbi**, **Zhonggong**, and **Huatu**, with Fenbi narrowing the revenue gap with Huatu [2] - The K12 sector showed strong revenue growth, with new offline investments expected to drive further growth [2] Publishing Sector - Educational publishing maintained steady growth, while mass-market publishing faced a downturn [2] - Companies like **Phoenix Media** and **Anhui Xinhua Media** are noted for their cost-cutting measures and dividend policies [2] Advertising Sector - The advertising market remained stable, with strong spending from fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) advertisers [2] - Companies like **Focus Media** are recommended for their strong performance and high dividend payouts [2] Investment Recommendations - **Internet**: Focus on **Tencent**, **Meituan**, **Kuaishou**, and **Bilibili** for their stable performance and profit optimization [2] - **Gaming**: Recommend **37 Interactive Entertainment**, **Shenzhou Taiyue**, and **G-bits** for their strong product pipelines and undervalued stocks [2] - **Film and Cinema**: Suggest **Mango Excellent Media** and **iQIYI** for their potential recovery and content-driven growth [2] - **Education**: Highlight **Fenbi** and **Gaotu Group** for their market share growth and expansion into non-academic training [2] - **Publishing**: Recommend **Phoenix Media**, **Zhongnan Media**, and **Anhui Xinhua Media** for their steady growth and dividend policies [2]